The Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+

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1 The Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+ But does not leverage its full potential Dr. Yacov Sheinin, May 2017

2 Disclaimer This review is intended solely for clients of Economic Models Ltd., and is contingent upon signature of a subscription agreement. The review is not intended for the general public and is not to be forwarded to parties that are not customers of Economic Models without the written approval of Economic Models. The review was prepared by Economic Models, and is provided for informational purposes only. Nothing stated herein constitutes a recommendation to buy and/or sell any security whatsoever, no does it replace the personal consulting required for management of securities. The review relates to forecasts, which are uncertain by nature. In fact, there may be significant deviations from the forecasts. Using these forecasts wisely requires acquired skills that are not common wisdom, and should not be used without proper professional advice. The information presented is partial and may include errors. The current period is fraught with tremendous global uncertainty and, therefore, there may be extreme changes in prices, economic activity, exchange rates, interest rates, etc. at the level seen in recent years, if not greater. Economic Models Ltd. and/or its employees bear no liability whatsoever regarding the information in this review. The failure of the forecasts and estimates to materialize shall not be deemed cause for a claim in respect of direct or indirect damages incurred because of their use. The controlling shareholders of Economic Models are also the controlling shareholders of Capital Market Models Ltd. Capital Market Models Ltd. is an investment management company for securities that works with private individuals and companies. Capital Market Models Ltd. has a subsidiary (wholly owned), Mutual Fund Models, which manages mutual funds. As part of the investment management services and/or investment marketing it provides, Capital Market Models may give preference to the mutual funds of Mutual Fund Models. Capital Market Models and Mutual Fund Models holds, buy and sell various types of shares, bonds, and foreign currency, on both local and foreign markets. Economic Models Ltd. 2017

3 The Israeli Economy - A Snapshot Israel is a member of the OECD organization, with 8.6 million residents, similar to Switzerland and Sweden. Israeli GDP is $320 billion, with GDP per capita of $37,000, close to the average of OECD countries, and with 4.8% unemployment. Israeli is a top-tier global high-tech power. Israel has very low national debt, net surplus assets abroad in excess of $90 billion, and foreign currency reserves of over $100 billion. The inflation rate over the past 17 years has been 1.6%. Israel is currently rated A+, while Italy has a rating of BBB and Spain a rating of BBB+ 3

4 The Key Measures for the Israeli Economy Israel OECD Israeli Ranking 1. GDP ($) 36,667 36, Growth 4.0% 1.7% 4 3. Budgetary deficit (% GDP) 2.2% 3.1% Government debt (% GDP) 62.1% 101% Inflation during the year -0.2% 1.6% 3 6. Unemployment rate 4.8% 6.5% 8 7. Defense burden (% GDP) 4.5% 2.2% Surplus in balance of payments (% GDP) 4.0% 0.3% 9 9. Inequality of income (2015 Gini index) 36.6% 30.4% R&D expenses (% GDP, 2015) 4.3% 2.3% % with academic education, aged (2015) 35% 27% Life expectancy at birth (years, 2014)

5 Significance of Measures According to the 12 measures above, Israel should have an AA rating, like France. However, due to the security situation, it was taken down two rankings. The defense burden in Israel is less the American grant, and relative to GDP it is similar to the US burden. The defense burden is only very low in Japan and Germany, at approximately 1% of GDP. Three points characterize Israel: The highest R&D rate in the world. The highest rate of academic education in the world Ranks 8 globally in terms of life expectancy 5

6 Defense Expenditure - % of GDP Relatively high, but a Reginal Superpower Local defense burden At present, is 4.5% of GDP. Much higher than other developed countries, but not as extreme as was in the past. Annual US military aid is $3.8 billion, approximately 2% of Israeli GDP

7 National Debt, % of GDP Below the average rate of the OECD OECD average for 2016 = 101%

8 Production per Capita Is not growing fast enough Israel's growth rate in 2016 was 4%, which was a one off (attributable to unusual fast growth in private consumption). It is not the on going sustainable growth rate. The average growth rate over the past five years was 3.3%. With a population growth rate of 2% as in Israel, it implies, only 1.3% growth rate, per capita. This per capita growth rate is similar to the US, and will not narrow the gap between them (the US, GDP per capital is approximately 60% higher than the Israeli one). An average growth rate of 4.6% annual will close the gap relative to the US within 30 years. It is possible to achieve. 8

9 The Israeli Economy - The Catch 22 The shekel is too strong compared to the dollar and euro. Therefore profitability for production is low both for the domestic market and exports. The result: motivation for investment in segments of the economy is seriously declining. Without investments, a large surplus is created in the balance of payments. The surplus in the balance of payments leads the shekel to grow stronger. A strong shekel tends to reduce prices and leads to very low inflation. Imports of consumer products tend to increase, intensifying harm to investments. In the long term, without sufficient investment, production will decline and the surplus in the balance of payment will disappear. 9

10 Growth Rate, % Annual Change Despite the accelerated growth in 2016, we see a slowdown in

11 Monetary Forecast - Israel Year End Monetary interest 0.1% 0.1% 10-year government bonds 2.1% 2.2% Inflation during the year -1.0% -0.2% NIS-USD exchange rate NIS-euro exchange rate

12 Average annual yield Government Return Curve (as of May 4, 2017) An illogical situation in Israel, with a "negative risk premium" compared to US government bonds. The result is attributable to the fear of appreciation of the shekel, and therefore purchasing US bonds is considered risky. The public has still not internalized the trend towards devaluation of the shekel. 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.04% 2.18% 2.24% 2.30%2.36% 1.89% 1.70% 1.52% 1.91% 2.03%2.10% 1.32% 1.65% 1.10% 1.39% 0.36% 0.17% 0.60% US government ($) 0.86% 1.13% Years to maturity Israeli government (NIS) 12

13 Exchange rates: NIS to Euro and US Dollar (Base 2007 = 100), as of May 04, 2017 NIS to USD -1. % NIS to euro -2.1% 13

14 Models Forecast Real growth rates, %, 2016 data updated to March 9, GDP Business sector GDP Export Import Investment in fixed assets Of which: in sectors of the economy Residential Private consumption Public consumption Real wages Current account ($ billions) Government deficit (% GDP) Unemployment (% of workforce)

15 Over employment in the Public Sector Over the past four years ( ), the number of employees in the public sector has grown by a total of 13.57%, at an annual growth rate of 3.23%. The number of employees in the business sector only grew by a total of 10%, at an average annual rate of 2.41%. This means that from 2012 to 2016, 41,000 people were employed in the public sector beyond the growth in the business sector. If the growth rate in the number of employees in the public sector were like that in the business sector, the unemployment rate in 2016 would have been 5.9% and not 4.8%. In other words, part of the decline in unemployment was through hiring of too many people in the public sector. This is latent redundancy! 15

16 Inflation in Israel - Lower than in the US! Average inflation rate in In Israel - 1.6%, in the US - 2.2% USA Israel -2 16

17 Total Exports of Commodities and Services in Real Terms in NIS billions in 2010, seasonly adjusted, in annual terms Stagnation since 2011 (4 years) 17

18 Incoming Tourism by Air Thousands, monthly data, seasonly adjusted Average annual level Moving average 3 months 2016: 2.6 million Fighting in Lebanon Global Economic Crisis Protective Edge Stabbing Attacks Intifada Ongoing stagnation since Globally, total 80% rise in tourism 18

19 Ireland Korea Japan Israel UK USA OECD Germany France Italy Information and Communications Technology (ICT), % of GDP, Israel 2015, the world 2011 Can reach the level of Ireland - 12% of GDP. But government policy is required for this. 19

20 Percentage of Investments in Economic Sectors out of Total GDP, (Less construction of residential housing) Minimum required according to Economic Models for a. % growth rate

21 No Investments, No Productivity, No Increase in Real Wages Labor productivity in Israel - output per work hour - about 24% lower than the average output per work hour in OECD countries. Since 1990, average productivity has increased by 0.4% annually, which average wages in real terms has increased by 0.7% annually - 0.3% more than the employee's contribution. The increase in real wages beyond the increase in productivity can t exist in the long run. Higher productivity requires higher investment in the business sector. But with the on going wage rate and exchange rate, profitability is too low to stimulate investment. The Economic Solution Significant devaluation of the Shekel 21

22 Average salary months Apartment price in Number of Average Salary Months Price of Average Apartment in NIS divided by Average Annual Salary Currently average salary months! Unfathomable by any international standard Wave of immigration Stabilization The bubble!?

23 Apartment Price in Israel and of Houses in the US Index 1987 = 100. Adjusted for inflation The Israeli case: "mother" of all bubbles Average annual increase: (29 years) US = 1.0% Israel = 4.2% Israel USA 23