Israel through the Global Crisis: Do Innovations Help?
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1 Israel through the Global Crisis: Do Innovations Help? Prof. Zvi Eckstein Dean, School of Economics, IDC Herzliya 24 March
2 Outline The Macro Picture Innovations and Start Ups 2
3 Growth Rates - Israel, US and Europe % 10 8 Lehman Brothers collapse * 3.2* Crisis begins -6 Back to growth -8 אירופה (17 מדינות) -10 ארה"ב ישראל -12 Quarterly rates in annual terms. * excluding TAMAR gas, growth is 2.9 in 2014 and 3.2 in Source: OECD data, forecasts by BOI (December 2013), Federal Reserve (March 2014) and ECB (2014Q1). 3
4 % 13 Unemployment signals that the real crisis remains in US and EU - less so in Israel Israel Euro area US Source: OECD, BOI and CBS data, forecasts by BOI (December 2013), Federal Reserve (March 2014) and ECB (2014Q1). 4
5 Israel s Economic Strength: Resilience to Shocks Financial markets: Stable Fiscal policy: Credible reduction in Debt/GDP Balance of payments surplus Monetary policy: Price stability and growth 5
6 Financial markets are stable and functioning very well, but Private and public debt are below average OECD Banking capital level at world average (14.9%; core tier 1 9.1%) Banks are stable, deleverage in business and increase mortgage to households (housing prices rise) Savings rate relatively high (18.3%) No exposure to advanced financial instruments (MBS, CDO, CDS); small inter-banking market Capital requirements from banks, non-bank credit restrictions and lack of securitization - create limits on business credit growth 6
7 Fiscal Policy: Conservative and Credible Public debt (% GDP) - left Public spending (% GDP) - left Deficit (% GDP) - right Data and forecasts are according to the new GDP definitions. Deficit for 2014 is the target. Source: BOI and CBS. 7
8 50 Balance of Payments: Back to surplus % GDP import export / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2013 Total goods and services, calculated from current prices series. Source: CBS.
9 % GDP 6 Current Account: Growing surplus, pressure on Shekel Source: CBS, estimated forecast calculated from BOI (December 2013). 9
10 Monetary Policy Goals Main goal: Price stability, inflation target 1-3% Secondary goal: Support employment and growth (subject to price stability) Tools: Interest rate and FX market interventions Additional goal: Support financial stability Tools: Financial markets interventions and macroprudential actions (e.g. restrictions on exposure to real estate and restrictions on FX derivatives exposure) 10
11 9 Inflation below mid-target year market-derived inflationary expectations Annual Inflation 1-year market-derived inflationary expectations Source: CBS and BOI. 11
12 Interest rate policy: Expansionary in the west - how long? Slightly expansionary in Israel - how long? Recent changes: BOI reduces the interest by 0.25 to 1.5% BOI reduces the interest by 0.25 to 1.25% BOI reduces the interest by 0.25 to 1% BOI reduces the interest by 0.25 to 0.75% Israel EU US UK 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
13 110 Shekel too strong? Intervention during unusual trends affecting market; Accumulating balances; In the long-term - avoiding intervention Daily $ 100M purchase NIS/$ (right) Intervention stopped Nominal effective (left) Daily $ 25M purchase Purchase according to market fluctuations Interventions renewed / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Source: BOI. 13
14 Innovations and Start Ups 14
15 $ monthly millions 2200 Exports by Technology Intensity: The growth engine is stuck? High Technology Industries Medium-High Technology Industries Medium-Low Technology Industries Low Technology Industries Source: CBS. 15
16 Export by Technology Intensity: Transition to High-Tech exports Low Technology Medium- 15% Low Technology 21% 1995 High Technology 37% Medium- Low Technology 13% Low Technology 6% 2013 High Technology 44% Medium- High Technology 28% Medium- High Technology 37% Source: CBS. 16
17 Export by Country (excluding diamonds): Transition to Asia Rest 21% European Union 32% Rest 25% European Union 32% USA 30% USA 22% Asia 16% Asia 21% China: 1% Inc. Hong Kong: 2% China: 5% Inc. Hong Kong: 7% Source: CBS. 17
18 National Expenditure on Civilian R&D (2011) % GDP * Data for Israel is provisional. Source: CBS. 18
19 Academic Environment: Scientific Publications & Citations Sweden Swizerland Israel Finland Danmark UK Holand Australia Canada New-Zealand Norway USA Belgium France Germany Japan Ireland Italy Spain Publication/M inhabitants Citations / M inhabitants US Israel UK Canada Germany Publications in leading LS Journals* per capita * Nature, Science, The Cell Source: Science & Engineering Indicators 2006, US NSF and Office of the Chief Scientist. 19
20 Expenditure on R&D of Foreign Affiliates out of Total Expenditure on R&D (2009) Israel United Kingdom Austria Slovak Republic Hungary Sweden Czech Republic Norway Italy Denmark Singapore Belgium France Estonia Finland Romania Spain Poland Mexico Slovenia Portugal Turkey Russian Federation Korea Source: Applied Economics. 20
21 Global Presence: Companies with R&D Activities and Investments in Israel Source: Office of the Chief Scientist and Investment Promotion Center. 21
22 Patents Israel ranked #5 in number of patents per capita Israel ranked #1 in number of medical devices patents and #2 in number of Biopharma patents approved in the US Source: Office of the Chief Scientist. 22
23 Government Funding out of Total Expenditure on Business R&D Israel US Euro Spain Ireland Turkey Source: Office of the Chief Scientist. 23
24 Office of the Chief Scientist Grants by Technological Sector (2013) Plastics 2% Drugs 3% Cleantech 7% Misc. 6% Electronics 10% Electro-Optics 6% Chemicals 4% Medical equipment 16% Software 16% Biotechnology 10% Communications 22% Source: Office of the Chief Scientist. 24
25 Summary The Israeli economy has been stable and growing well due to: Stable macro fundamentals Improving world trade and trade incentives Innovative and growing high tech sector The recent developments show slower growth in Hi Tech and the economy How could policy enhance growth? Provide incentives for innovations 25
26 Thank You! 26
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