HINA AND APAN 2015 UTLOOK
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1 TITLE OF PRESENTATION GOES HERE HINA AND APAN 2015 UTLOOK FEBRUARY // 2015
2 TITLE OF OF THE PRESENTATION GOES HERE TABLE OF CONTENTS 2» China» Japan» 1950 or 1990?
3 TITLE OF OF THE PRESENTATION GOES HERE CHINA
4 GROWTH STABILIZES 4 GDP Growth NBS and BBG Monthly Estimate» Q4 growth stable at 7.3% YoY, unchanged from Q3» Bloomberg Monthly GDP tracker came in at 7.1% in Dec, up from 6.7% in Nov» Real activity indicators strengthen from a low base
5 PROPERTY CONTRACTS 5 Real estate sales and new construction contract» Residential real estate sales down close to 10% in 2014» New construction following sales down» Real estate construction + associated sectors = about 20% of GDP
6 STIMULUS STILL MINI 6 Bloomberg Monetary Conditions Index» Despite November s rate cut China s monetary conditions remain tight: Real interest rates high Loan growth slow Real effective exchange rate appreciates
7 EQUITY BOOM, STIMULUS BUST 7 Shanghai Market, New Accounts and Trading Volume» Most visible response to the rate cut is the equity boom» Cost of credit rises as equity markets suck up all available funds» Wealth effect negligible
8 THE COST OF STIMULUS 8 Outstanding credit, and debt servicing costs as % GDP» Resurgent lending would set back deleveraging and rebalancing agendas
9 DEVALUING THE YUAN? 9 Yuan spot price, central parity, and trading band» A weaker exchange rate would support growth by boosting overseas demand» But it could also push rates up by triggering capital outflows, and risk the ire of the U.S.
10 TITLE OF OF THE PRESENTATION GOES HERE JAPAN
11 2% IN 2 YEARS NOW 2 HARD 11 CPI, core CPI, core-core CPI, YoY» Falling oil prices have pushed the Bank of Japan s 2 percent inflation target out of reach» BOJ lowers inflation forecast to 1 percent in fiscal 2015, down from 1.7 percent
12 A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE? 12 Tankan Survey Measures of Capacity Utilization» Bank of Japan continues to focus on virtuous circle» Diminished slack + Higher inflation expectations = More capital spending and higher wages» Tankan survey provides supporting evidence economy operating at full capacity
13 Cash Earnings - YoY OR A VICIOUS CYCLE? Japan s Phillips Curve Q13-4Q14 1Q98-4Q12 Linear (1Q13-4Q14) Unemployment Rate» Price expectations on 5 year horizon basically unchanged from 2012» Low unemployment triggering limited response from wages
14 OR A VICIOUS CYCLE? 14 Sony, Apple, Samsung Revenue, Blns $ Sony Samsung Apple Source: Bloomberg » Why haven t low interest rates and high profits triggered higher capital spending?» Demographic decline, fiscal drag, and loss of worldbeating position all weigh on outlook
15 ANY ASSETS LEFT TO BUY? 15 Central Bank Assets as % GDP» BOJ already ahead of other major central banks in assets as % GDP» Scope to increase JGB purchases limited by size of market» Push back target or shift emphasis to core-core CPI?
16 TITLE OF OF THE PRESENTATION GOES HERE 1950 OR 1990?
17 GDP Growth GDP/CAPITA CHINA IS JAPAN IN GDP/Capita as % of U.S and GDP Growth China Japan India Mozambique Mexico Korea GDP per capita as % of U.S. Source: Bloomberg, Penn World Table» China remains relatively poor PPP adjusted GDP/capita is 20% of U.S» That s below the level of Japan in 1950 suggesting decades of rapid growth ahead
18 INVESTMENT/GDP CHINA IS JAPAN IN Investment as % GDP» Looking at other metrics, China looks more like Japan in 1990: Investment as % GDP Real estate as % GDP Exports as % world imports
19 MITI VERSUS NDRC 19 Summer of the bureaucrats» MITI exercised iron control over Japan s industry» NDRC has a more laissez faire approach» Result could be 1950 levels of development achieved at price of 1990 levels of capital and credit intensity
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