Key Insights. China Macro Pulse

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Key Insights. China Macro Pulse"

Transcription

1 MACRO REPORT China Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Qinwei Wang Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Economic Conditions: China s macro data have been broadly weak at the start of the year. However, these data should be treated with extra caution, as they are distorted by a shift in the timing of the Chinese New Year. Downward pressures on economic momentum seem to have shifted from real estate towards local government spending, given tighter regulations in place. But fears of either a sharp slowdown of the economy or serious deflation risk are probably overdone. Policy Stance: The new policy strategy is becoming clearer while regulations are being tightened to restrict credit to wrong areas, policymakers are seeking ways to support the right parts of the economy. The central government will probably increase its own spending to offset weakness from more controlled local government financing. Meanwhile, the PBOC (People s Bank of China) seems to be relatively accommodative, and probably is prepared to use all available tools. In our view, these measures should help the economy achieve a soft landing, with reform implementations likely to accelerate. Currency: Recent downward pressures on the Renminbi (RMB) are largely the result of China s exporters shifting their views to a strong dollar, by reducing their dollar trade financing and increasing dollar cash. Any RMB adjustment is likely to be limited to a degree by China s still effective capital controls, the PBOC s more than sufficient forex (FX) reserves, and continued large current account surpluses. We don t expect any large swing in the Renminbi this year. China Macro Pulse CONDITIONS STABILITY CONDITIONS Poor Good Poor Good China is tightening regulations, particularly on local government out-ofbudget financing and activities. As a result, downward pressure on economic momentum is shifting to local govt spending from property. Policymakers are seeking ways to support right parts of the economy, offsetting downside risks. In particular, central government will probably increase its own spending, while the PBOC is also becoming more accommodative. China Internal rebalancing is already underway, although still in early stage. Fast household income growth supports consumption. Structural reform implementation is likely to accelerate, facilitating further structural adjustment. External balance remains resilient, which should help the PBOC keep renminbi and capital outflows under control. In fact, trade surpluses have picked up in recent months, supported by lower commodity prices. Source: Pioneer Investments. Data as of February,

2 $ Bn China Macro Report March 2015 Economic Conditions: Cloudy to Start 2015 Data for the start of 2015, including trade, inflation and PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index), were broadly weak. However, underlying economic conditions are probably not as bad as headline data first show, given distortions caused by a shift in timing of the Chinese New Year (CNY). The shift in timing of the Chinese New Year is distorting macro views at the beginning of January s sharp fall in exports could be largely explained by the calendar change. Last year, CNY was at 31 st Jan., and many firms rushed to ship their s overseas ahead of the long holiday. This year CNY was on 19 th Feb., resulting in a stronger base for comparison. (Figure 1) Industrial sales for exports, in our view a more reliable gauge for underlying export strength, suggest China s exports were still growing around 7% y/y until end-2014, outperforming others in the region. A large part of the fall in imports was also due to lower commodity prices. Figure 1. China s Exports Chinese New Year Day was on 31st Jan 2014 Circles mark the months of Chinese New Year Day Sources: CEIC, Pioneer Investments, as of February 20 th, Meanwhile, deflation fears on the part of many investors have probably been overdone. Headline CPI inflation for January fell sharply from 1.5% y/y in December to 0.8% y/y. However, this did not signal weakening domestic demand, as almost the entire decline was directly attributable to a drop in food inflation caused by CNY distortion and lower global oil prices. Looking at the breakdown, there is no convincing sign that deflation in commodities is spreading into other items. (Figure 2) 2

3 China Macro Report March 2015 Figure 2. Contribution to Non-food CPI (%, YoY) Transport & Comm. Global commodity prices Tobacco & Alcohol Household Goods Recreation & Educ. Base effect in tourisml Healthcare Clothing Residential Property markets -0,3-0,2-0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Jan Sources: CEIC, Pioneer Investments, as of February 20 th, Key Points on Economic Conditions China Macro Pulse Economic conditions are clouded by distortion of Chinese New Year. Downward pressure may come from control of local government financing. AGGREGATES GROWTH Policy stance is getting clearer, shifting to be relatively accommodative. Central government will probably increase budget deficit. The PBOC seems ready to use all necessary easing tools. FACTORS CONDITIONS POLICIES Policymakers seem to be more comfortable with slower but more sustainable growth, which comes with continued structural adjustment. WEALTH FINANCIAL CONDITIONS High leverage remains a top threat. China is adjusting strategy to rely on regulations to restrict credit in wrong sectors while keeping a relatively accommodative policy overall. Source: Pioneer Investments. Data as of February,

4 (% of GDP) China Macro Report March 2015 In our view, the policy stance is getting clearer. The central government is likely to increase its own spending to offset, partially, local government tightening. Policy Stance: Getting Clearer Despite a clouded economic picture, the stance of policymakers has been getting clearer, with an adjustment of strategy that combines a tightening of regulations to restrict funds channelled towards the wrong sectors with relatively accommodative overall policy. Fiscal: Local Government Tightening, Central Government Easing China s official budget does not include borrowing of local governments through financial vehicles. Taking this factor into account, the actual fiscal deficit has been much higher than official figures suggest. (Figure 3) Since late 2014, China has started to push fiscal reforms ahead by pledging to restrict out-of-budget financing of local governments. If fully implemented, it would cause a sharp slowdown of local government spending, weighing on the whole economy. That said, local media have reported that the central government will probably increase its budget deficit, and also seek to trim local government financing over a few years rather than all at once. This means that downward pressures should be manageable, although the overall fiscal stance is likely to be tight, weighing on infrastructure construction and commodity demand. Figure 3. China's Total Fiscal Deficit (Incl. Local Gov) Out-of-budget balance (local govn, PI est.) Official budget balance (PI forecast for 2015) Augmented fiscal deficit (IMF est.) Sources: CEIC, various government departments, Pioneer Investments, as of February 20 th, Monetary Policy: Easier Than Last Year The monetary stance seems to have turned relatively accommodative this year, beginning with a universal Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) cut, announced in early February. Policymakers will probably rely more on regulations to control credit channelled to the wrong areas, including sectors with serious overcapacity as well as local governments. The PBOC has been seeking all possible ways to support the right parts of the economy, particularly Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs). With all tools likely now on the table, the PBOC can choose further cuts of its benchmark rate or RRR in case of serious situations. On a more regular basis, it is likely to use open market operations, lending facilities, re-lending programmes and other targeted measures to shore up the economy. This probably means that 1) market rates will remain at relatively low levels, and 2) the slowdown of credit growth is likely to be milder than over the last couple of years. 4

5 (% y/y) China Macro Report March 2015 In fact, growth in bank loans, which is more directly controlled by the PBOC, has already been allowed to pick up. This probably reflects policymakers intention to offset weakness in other forms of finance caused by tighter regulations on shadow banking and local government borrowing. (Figure 4) The monetary stance is shifting towards relatively accommodative. Figure 4. China s Credit Growth Total outstanding credit ("Total Social Financing") Sources: CEIC, Pioneer Investments, as of February 20 th, RMB bank loans The upshot is that downward pressure on economic momentum is shifting from property towards local government spending, as China strengthens regulations on local government out-of-budget financing. That said, policymakers are also seeking ways to support the right parts of the economy, in our view by increasing central government spending and easing monetary conditions. This should help avoid a sharp slowdown of the economy with accompanying deflationary spirals. Ultimately, the key is structural reforms, where we continue to expect upside surprises over the next couple of years. Currency: Fears About RMB Risks Overdone The Renminbi has been under downward pressure over the last few weeks, touching the floor of its daily trading band against the dollar. This has caused market concerns about serious capital outflows and depreciation risks for China s currency. Looking ahead, however, we think such fears are probably overdone. Recent downward pressures on the Renminbi are largely the result of China s exporters reducing their dollar trade financing and increasing dollar cash, due to a shift of their views to a strong dollar. Such adjustment is likely to be gradual, given limited channels for short-term flows. Ultimately, we believe that the PBOC retains the strong ability to control the Renminbi s path, given its more than sufficient FX reserves and continued large current account surpluses, in addition to continued effective capital controls. Meanwhile, policymakers have shown no willingness to allow large swings of the Renminbi in either direction. On the economic side, there is still no urgency to boost exports, when China s exporters are still gaining market share. What s more, policymakers fears that any large depreciation could spur more capital outflows. On the political side, China s leaders have shown a strong incentive to push Renminbi internationalisation. A relatively stable currency would help build the country s reputation. 5

6 China Macro Report March 2015 In particular, later this year the IMF will conduct its twice-a-decade review of the basket of currencies in its Special Drawing Rights that members can count towards their official reserves. The current basket includes the dollar, euro, yen, and pound. It seems that China would like the Renminbi to be included as well. Although policymakers may allow a mild devaluation against the dollar due to weakness in the euro, they have shown no willingness to accept large swings in the Renminbi. As a result, we expect the RMB to be roughly stable over the course of 2015, with relatively small fluctuations during the year. The Renminbi is under downward pressure, but the PBOC seems to want and to be able to keep it from large swings against the dollar. Figure 5. Renminbi Exchange Rate (Against The Dollar, Onshore) 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 Falls triggered by PBOC, with Renminbi Stronger lowering reference rates 6,4 gen 13 lug 13 gen 14 lug 14 gen 15 The upper band Reference rate (set by PBOC at start of day) Market rate (closing spot rate) The lower band Sources: Bloomberg, Pioneer Investments, as of February 20 th, ,9 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 Key Points on Stability Conditions China Macro Pulse Migration is slowing. Labour force is shrinking. Population is ageing. DEMOGRAPHIC XI Jinping has successfully consolidated power in almost all areas. This should help push economic reforms ahead. SOCIAL STABILITY CONDITIONS POLITICS Maintaining social stability is a major incentive for China s leaders to pursue structural reforms and an anti-corruption campaign. HEALTH Rebalancing is underway, although in early stages. External conditions remain resilient despite recent downward pressures from capital outflows and on renminbi. Capital controls remain effective, FX reserves are sufficient and China continues to run a current account surplus. Source: Pioneer Investments. Data as of February,

7 China Macro Report March 2015 Important Information Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of February 27, The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Pioneer Investments, and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Pioneer Investment product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realized or that these trends will continue. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested. This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any service. Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies. Date of First Use: March 4, Follow us on: _0215

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United

More information

Economic activity gathers pace

Economic activity gathers pace Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to

More information

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights

More information

Eurozone Economy Update

Eurozone Economy Update MACRO REPORT Eurozone Economy Update September 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Andrea Brasili Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing

More information

US Economy Update May 2014

US Economy Update May 2014 US Economy Update May 2014 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Annalisa Usardi Economist, US & LATAM Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo

More information

Outlook 2013: China. Growth expected to accelerate again

Outlook 2013: China. Growth expected to accelerate again Outlook 13: China Growth expected to accelerate again Weakened external demand and only limited growth supporting policies from the Chinese government were the main factors explaining China s slowing growth

More information

Sinology KEY QUESTIONS FOR CHINA INVESTORS IN by Andy Rothman. Q: Will Falling Oil Prices Have a Big Impact on China?

Sinology KEY QUESTIONS FOR CHINA INVESTORS IN by Andy Rothman. Q: Will Falling Oil Prices Have a Big Impact on China? Sinology by Andy Rothman 5 February 215 a In the first of a three-part series, Sinology answers some of the key questions investors should be asking about China in 215. a Coal remains king, so falling

More information

CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE APRIL 218 CONTENTS Key points 2 Gross Domestic Product 3 Industrial Production 4 Investment 5 International trade - trade balance and imports International trade - exports 6

More information

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC AND CURRENCY ANALYSIS 2015 REVIEW AND 2016 OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC AND CURRENCY ANALYSIS 2015 REVIEW AND 2016 OUTLOOK A REPORT OF MACROECONOMICS GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC AND CURRENCY ANALYSIS 2015 REVIEW AND 2016 OUTLOOK A FORECAST ON VND/USD WITH REGARD TO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS November 5, 2015 YEN TRAN [E] haiyentran.t@gmail.com

More information

ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack

ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

China GDP grows 6.8% in Q4 2016

China GDP grows 6.8% in Q4 2016 Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com The 2017 Outlook The mainland China economy expanded by an annual rate of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016, up from 6.7% in the third quarter,

More information

Japan Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse Outlook Edition MACRO REPORT

Japan Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse Outlook Edition MACRO REPORT MACRO REPORT Japan Economy Update 2015 Outlook Edition Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing

More information

Market Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief

Market Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin January 20, 2016 China: Still sneezing hard In brief Slower 4Q15 GDP growth and soft December data add to concerns about China s economic health. On a more encouraging note,

More information

The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016

The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation

More information

Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing

Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Although annual consumer price inflation rose for a second consecutive month in July, the underlying trend

More information

Exclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update

Exclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update February 15, 2013 Exclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update Research Team Ryan Hakim Economist rhakim@cascadeasia.com Manuel Pakpahan Director, Investment Strategy manuel@cascadeasia.com Bank Indonesia

More information

Key Insights. Macro Pulse. Japan was out of the technical recession in Q

Key Insights. Macro Pulse. Japan was out of the technical recession in Q MACRO REPORT Japan Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo

More information

China Economic Update Q1 2015

China Economic Update Q1 2015 Key Developments in Brief Economic development Growth drivers Risks GDP growth slows to 7. Slowdown challenging, but manageable More easing policies expected Reforms progressing slowly Services and retail

More information

US Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse. October 2015

US Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse. October 2015 US Economy Update October 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Andrea Brasili Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

Income Partners Thoughts on the recent RMB weakness 27 th February, 2014

Income Partners Thoughts on the recent RMB weakness 27 th February, 2014 Executive Summary Despite recent weakness and negative headline driven market speculation, we reiterate our stance that economic fundamentals in China remain supportive for the continued gradual appreciation

More information

China s growth to remain above 6% in September Tuuli Koivu, Senior Analyst

China s growth to remain above 6% in September Tuuli Koivu, Senior Analyst China s growth to remain above 6% in 2017-2019 8 September 2017 Tuuli Koivu, Senior Analyst Executive summary Nordea s new China forecast expects GDP growth at 6.7% in 2017, 6.3% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019.

More information

The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets

The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014) October 31, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a

More information

Japan Chart Book. 5 February 2014

Japan Chart Book. 5 February 2014 Japan Chart Book 5 February Japan: Economic Forecast Dashboard Forecast highlights Real GDP growth forecast at. in and. in 5 Slower consumption in -5 but offset by improved exports and investment Gradual

More information

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD

More information

Greater China Week in Review

Greater China Week in Review Highlights: The Chinese economy decelerated in August with all three key economic indicators missed forecast. We think the recent slowdown was mainly self-engineered as a result of tighter policy in local

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy March 2018 Released on 22 March 2018 Outlook for Australia 1 Economic Activity

More information

Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived?

Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived? Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived? January 24, 2019 by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia China has been on the verge of a hard landing for many years, according to some analysts. Will they finally be

More information

What lies beneath China s renminbi shock?

What lies beneath China s renminbi shock? For professional investors 9 September 2015 1 Chi on China What lies beneath China s renminbi shock? Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please. Mark Twain SUMMARY Contrary to conventional

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity

Financial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.

More information

KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016

KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January

More information

Key Questions for China Investors in 2015

Key Questions for China Investors in 2015 Key Questions for China Investors in 2015 February 6, 2015 by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia Andy Rothman Investment Strategist Andy Rothman lived and worked in China for more than 20 years, analyzing the

More information

HAS THE CHINA COLLAPSE FINALLY ARRIVED?

HAS THE CHINA COLLAPSE FINALLY ARRIVED? Sinology by Andy Rothman January 22, 2019 a Macro data in the last quarter of 2018 didn t slow sharply. The growth rates of household consumption and private investment actually accelerated. a This year,

More information

Sinology KEY QUESTIONS FOR CHINA INVESTORS IN 2015 PART II. by Andy Rothman. Why Do I Keep Saying China Won t Ease this Year?

Sinology KEY QUESTIONS FOR CHINA INVESTORS IN 2015 PART II. by Andy Rothman. Why Do I Keep Saying China Won t Ease this Year? Sinology by Andy Rothman February 19, 2015 a In the second of a threepart series, Sinology answers some of the key questions investors should be asking about China in 2015. a We are witnessing the odd

More information

China Economic Outlook 2013

China Economic Outlook 2013 China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

China Economic Growth Slows in 1Q

China Economic Growth Slows in 1Q Yao Shaohua, PhD Senior Economist shaohuayao@hangseng.com China Economic Growth Slows in 1Q 15 April 2015 Mainland China s economic growth continued to lose momentum in the first quarter, due largely to

More information

Summary. Chinese equities remained mired in a bear market, with the Shanghai composite losing nearly

Summary. Chinese equities remained mired in a bear market, with the Shanghai composite losing nearly Summary Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone: +852 2826 6193 Email: tristanzhuo@bochk.com In spite of fixed asset investment, industrial production, and exports all missing their targets, China

More information

Japanese Economy Update

Japanese Economy Update Japanese Economy Update September 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Also contributing Riccardo Soggiu Senior Economist,

More information

ASIAN WEEKLY ECONOMIC INSIGHTS

ASIAN WEEKLY ECONOMIC INSIGHTS ASIAN WEEKLY ECONOMIC INSIGHTS Global Economic Research May 25, 2007 Anthony Chan Asian Sovereign Strategist Global Economic Research + 852 2918 7846 This document reflects the views of AllianceBernstein

More information

Danske Bank March 1 ST 2016 Economic Update,

Danske Bank March 1 ST 2016 Economic Update, Monthly update: Tuesday 1 March 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during January 2016: The NI economy suffered a significant blow during the

More information

CHINA: SO BAD IT IS GOOD FOR EQUITIES

CHINA: SO BAD IT IS GOOD FOR EQUITIES CHINA: SO BAD IT IS GOOD FOR EQUITIES Weak economic fundamentals and deflationary trends increase likelihood of accommodative monetary policy and further stimulus December 11, 214 Northern Trust Global

More information

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 12th January 2016

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 12th January 2016 Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 12th January 2016 Moderate recovery expected to continue in advanced economies, which to date have been able to withstand the marked slowdown in growth in emerging economies

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Eighth Meeting October 12 13, 2018 Statement No. 38-27 Statement by Mr. Yi People s Republic of China PBOC Governor YI Gang s Statement at the Ministerial

More information

Gavekal June Investor Call

Gavekal June Investor Call June 2015 Gavekal June Investor Call By Louis-Vincent Gave Emerging market is outperforming, even adjusting for US$ strength 2 Behind the outperformance of EM, and especially Asian, bonds Higher yields

More information

Macro Outlook Navigating through the woods. Shekhar Bhandari Kotak Mahindra Bank

Macro Outlook Navigating through the woods. Shekhar Bhandari Kotak Mahindra Bank Macro Outlook Navigating through the woods Shekhar Bhandari Kotak Mahindra Bank Aug, 2015 1 1. Unsynchronized global monetary policies 2 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 US economy

More information

Global Economy and World Trade

Global Economy and World Trade Global Economy and World Trade Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Capital Link Greek Shipping Forum, Athens 24 February 2015 Worries about the global economy continue 2 The next leg of

More information

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, October 31, 15. October 31, 15 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices October 15 (English translation prepared by the Bank's

More information

Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy

Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy 1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy The Thai economy expanded by slightly less than the previous projection due to weaker-than-anticipated

More information

Haruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy

Haruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy Haruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Osaka, 28 September 2015. Introduction * * * It is

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) April 30, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace

More information

9 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

9 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at a record low of 1.50%. The RBA expects inflation and wages to accelerate gradually from

More information

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic

More information

Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy

Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy September 28, 2015 B ank of Japan Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Osaka Haruhiko Kuroda Governor of the Bank of Japan (English translation based on the

More information

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy Fund Information Fund Name Public China Access Equity Fund (PCASEF) Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long-term period by investing in a portfolio

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

Six Hot Questions for Emerging Markets

Six Hot Questions for Emerging Markets Six Hot Questions for Emerging Markets October 2015, EM Outlook Update MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010) April 30, 2010 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010) The Bank's View 1 The global economy has emerged from the sharp deterioration triggered by the financial crisis and has

More information

China Warms to a More Flexible Yuan

China Warms to a More Flexible Yuan Page 1 of 5 This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com. http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-warms-to-a-more-flexible-yuan-1418811977

More information

26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling

26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling +6565311517 hillaryho@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary United States: We maintain our stance that QE2 will not make a huge difference to economic conditions. Growth will continue

More information

Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Business & Industry Political Education Committee Columbia, South Carolina

More information

Economic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia

Economic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia Economic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia Daniel Jeongdae Lee, UN ESCAP UN DESA EGM on the World Economy 2 October 216, Toronto Main messages Steady high growth >> quality of growth (jobs, poverty,

More information

VISION. The Bank aspires to be a world-class central bank with the highest standards of corporate governance and professional exellence.

VISION. The Bank aspires to be a world-class central bank with the highest standards of corporate governance and professional exellence. 1 VISION The Bank aspires to be a world-class central bank with the highest standards of corporate governance and professional exellence. MISSION The mission of the Bank is to contribute to the sound economic

More information

Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform

Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform Thomas Shik Senior Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform The benchmark lending rate set by the People s Bank of China (PBOC) has remained the key reference for banks

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report

More information

Australian Dollar Outlook

Australian Dollar Outlook Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end

More information

Global Markets. CHINA AND GLOBAL MARKET VOLATILITY.

Global Markets. CHINA AND GLOBAL MARKET VOLATILITY. PRICE POINT August 015 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Global Markets. CHINA AND GLOBAL MARKET VOLATILITY. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Eric Moffett Portfolio Manager, Asia Opportunities Strategy

More information

INFINUM PARTNERS. China. September 2015

INFINUM PARTNERS. China. September 2015 INFINUM PARTNERS China September 2015 A member of the JD-Infinum Group Rue du Conseil-Général 3-5 CH - 1205 Geneva info@infinum-partners.com Tel + 41 22 316 01 01 Fax + 41 22 316 01 02 www.infinum-partners.com

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015 Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by

More information

Growth to accelerate. A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy

Growth to accelerate. A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Produced by the Economic Research Unit July 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Growth to accelerate Strong start to 2014 Recovery becoming more broad-based GDP growth revised up for

More information

Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016

Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.

More information

Consensus Forecasts. Real GDP Growth. NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows softer growth outlook. Annual average % change

Consensus Forecasts. Real GDP Growth. NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows softer growth outlook. Annual average % change NZ Institute of Economic Research (Inc) Media release December Consensus Forecasts NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows softer growth outlook The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts expects a modestly softer growth

More information

Perspectives on 2019 Monetary Policy

Perspectives on 2019 Monetary Policy Perspectives on 2019 Monetary Policy James Bullard President and CEO Power Up Little Rock Little Rock Regional Chamber Jan. 10, 2019 Little Rock, Ark. Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not

More information

CHINA FOCUS II AIMING FOR THE SDR BASKET

CHINA FOCUS II AIMING FOR THE SDR BASKET AIMING FOR THE SDR BASKET With its rising economic size and position as a top trading nation, China is aiming for the RMB to be included into the SDR basket of currencies at the 2015 IMF review, which

More information

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5

More information

Asia Watch. The US giveth, the US taketh away. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.

Asia Watch. The US giveth, the US taketh away. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions. Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 June 18 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 68 85 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com The US giveth, the US taketh away Growth momentum

More information

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017 GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,

More information

Global Investment Outlook for 2H 2016

Global Investment Outlook for 2H 2016 Global Investment Outlook for 2H 2016 Major central banks apart the Fed may stay in easing mode due to heightened economic and political risks. China s economy in 2H 2016 may continue to stabilize but

More information

The ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization

The ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets June 27 The ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization Summary In the Spotlight. This month, we focus on the European Central Bank s (ECB) June

More information

Economic Projections :1

Economic Projections :1 Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Indian Economy. GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Manufacturing GVAbp

Indian Economy. GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Manufacturing GVAbp Indian Economy Economic Growth GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Domestic economy witnessed 7.1% GDP growth during the first quarter (Apr - Jun) of fiscal 2016-17 (Q1FY17) as

More information

Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms

Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms One of the commonalities between most Asian governments is the dedicated commitment they have in using policies and initiatives

More information

HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing

More information

Koji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy

Koji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy Koji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy Speech by Mr Koji Ishida, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Fukuoka, 18 February

More information

SINGAPORE FOCUS I. Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization

SINGAPORE FOCUS I. Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to release monetary policy decision on the 2nd week of April 2018 (9th

More information

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 QUARTERLY REVIEW June 213 ECONOMIC REPORT The End of Euphoria Perception vs.

More information

The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies

The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies Asian economies maintain stable growth led by domestic demand although growth pace slows down slightly AKI FUKUCHI, YOKO HAGIWARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO

More information