Making Sense of Macroeconomic Uncertainty IIES 2017
|
|
- Kevin Malone
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Making Sense of Macroeconomic Uncertainty IIES 2017
2
3 Some Key Inflection Points for 2017 and Beyond Rise of populism Growth negative Inflation positive Elevated geopolitical risks Higher inflation Deflation fears fade Various forces conspire to push inflation higher Retreat of globalization For a mix of reasons Slow GDP, competitive parity, protectionism Monetary to fiscal shift Peak monetary stimulus? U.S. transition underway Little global fiscal impulse Source: RBC GAM 2
4 Manufacturing PMI Global Growth Signal Significantly Improved Expansion Global manufacturing accelerates Contraction JP Morgan Global PMI Developed markets PMI Emerging markets PMI Note: PMI refers to Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing sector, a measure for economic activity. Source: Haver Analytics, RBC GAM 3
5 Still, There Are Many Reasons for Sluggish Long-run Growth STRUCTURAL CRISIS-INDUCED NEWER ISSUES Demographics EM Deceleration Less globalization Populism High debt Less business investment Skill decay High policy uncertainty Brexit Some nations running out of economic slack Persists for decades Persists for about a decade; not over yet Temporary, but important Source: RBC GAM 4
6 Unleashing the Forces of Populism Populism due to Slow growth Financial crises High inequality Policy implications Protectionism Less immigration Higher minimum wage Higher top tax rate Fewer corporate loopholes Economic implications Less economic growth More inflation More focus on distribution of growth Evidence of populist attitudes Brexit U.S. election Various EU nations souring on the union Potential failure of several trade deals Source: RBC GAM 5
7 Percentage points Trump Economic Effect: Short Term Boost, Long Term Drag 0.8 Effect of Trump policies on U.S. GDP Negative economic effect in long term Positive economic effect in short term Cumulative effect on GDP level Effect on annual GDP growth Source: RBC GAM assumptions and calculations 6
8 How Would a 20% Tariff Increase U.S. Product Prices? iphone: +5% price increase -94% foreign made -But 60% U.S. profit margin softens impact Haircut: negligible effect -cannot import haircuts -minimal equipment costs Clothing: +18% price increase -almost entirely foreign made -Low U.S. profit margin Complications: -Assumes no change to profit margins or domestic substitution -But pain could be worse if other countries reciprocate with their own tariffs Source: Robert Reich, RBC GAM estimates 7
9 Who is Most Vulnerable to U.S. Protectionism? Exports to U.S. are significant for some countries Mexico Vietnam Canada Malaysia Taiwan Thailand South Korea China Germany Philippines Exports to U.S. in 2015 (% of GDP) Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM 8
10 Who is Most Likely to be Targeted With Protectionist Measures? China Germany Mexico Japan Italy India South Korea France Taiwan Saudi Arabia Canada U.K. Singapore Brazil All other countries U.S. trade deficit with China tops the list Trade surplus U.S. trade balance (% of total) Note: Cumulative 12 month trade balance to Q Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM Trade deficit 64 9
11 Expect a Hard Brexit Incompatible goals U.K. goal: limit immigration and interference; maintain trade EU insistence: four freedoms are all or nothing British challenges Internal divisions (politically and regionally) Parliamentary veto New & inexperienced U.K. trade negotiators Sequencing: new deal only after exit? EU motivations EU seeks to set example to discourage others All 28 nations have veto power Extract financial hub from London? EU hurt less by hard exit than U.K. Source: RBC GAM 10
12 U.K. Italy Cyprus Austria Poland Greece France Portugal Spain Ireland Germany Netherlands Better off inside EU? (% of respondents who agreed) Next Populist Risk: Unhappy EU Nations Unhappy Anti-EU sentiment is significant Relatively content Nov-2016 Source: European Commission Standard Eurobarometer 86, RBC GAM 11
13 World real exports (YoY % change) Globalization No Longer Advancing 30 Retreat of globalization? Era of globalization Retreat of globalization Note: Year-over-year % change of 3-month moving average of world real exports. Source: IMF, Credit Suisse, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM 12
14 CPI (YoY % Change) Inflation Is Now Rising, But Still Low Inflation Is rising but not high in developed world Historical average Note: CPI of advanced economies. Historical average since Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM 13
15 Deflation Fears Gone: Inflation Pointing Higher Deflation fears faded when these reversed Vanishing economic slack Populism is inflationary Central banks printed money End of commodity shock Higher inflation FX swings vary effect across nations 14
16 Why Wasn t Extreme Monetary Stimulus More Inflationary? Higher risk appetite Lower borrowing costs Increased money supply (2) The new money was low powered (1) Only certain parts of monetary stimulus worked (3) More growth more inflation (inflation happens once economic slack has vanished) 15
17 Monetary Stimulus May Be Peaking Peak monetary stimulus? Source: RBC GAM Improving growth/inflation Diminishing economic slack Rising yields Fed rate hikes, possible balance sheet decline BoE QE ending this year? ECB QE ending next year? 16
18 Change in world structural fiscal balance (ppt) A New Era of Fiscal Stimulus? Yes in N.A., Not yet for Rest 2.0 Global fiscal stimulus to be less supportive 1.5 Fiscal boost Fiscal drag Note: Forecast from IMF World Economic Outlook, October PPP-based country GDP as share of world total used as weights. Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM 17
19 Financial Market Implications Short term Macro trend Economic growth has improved EM economies have bottomed Positive for risk assets Stocks, credit spreads Bond selloff may be done for now Monetary to fiscal shift Only a small aggregate effect globally Short-term boost to U.S. equities Higher yields (MP, debt) Long term Rise of populism Pain historically takes a while to build Slower growth hurts earnings growth Higher inflation increases yields Higher uncertainty Retreat of globalization Weaker earnings growth Hurts multinationals most Large markets more resilient Higher inflation Higher nominal yields Eventually hurts P/E ratios, but not at these levels Overall market implications Short term: equities stronger, yields sustain their gains Long term: equities softer, higher yields Source: RBC GAM 18
20
21 Disclaimer This presentation is intended for institutional investors only. This document has been provided by Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management (PH&N IM) for information purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written consent of PH&N IM. It is not intended to provide professional advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. PH&N IM takes reasonable steps to provide up-to-date, accurate and reliable information, and believes the information to be so when printed. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by PH&N IM, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. We assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of PH&N IM as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended to be an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to participate in or subscribe for any service. No securities are being offered, except pursuant and subject to the respective offering documents and subscription materials, which shall be provided to qualified investors. This document is for general information only and is not, nor does it purport to be, a complete description of an investment in any RBC, PH&N or BlueBay funds. If there is an inconsistency between this document and the respective offering documents, the provisions of the respective offering documents shall prevail. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with the funds mentioned in this presentation. Please read the offering materials for a particular fund before investing. The performance data provided are historical returns, they are not intended to reflect future values of any of the funds or returns on investment in these funds mentioned in this presentation. Further, the performance data provided assumes reinvestment of distributions only and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. The unit values of non-money market funds change frequently. For money market funds, there can be no assurances that the fund will be able to maintain its net asset value per unit at a constant amount or that the full amount of your investment in the fund will be returned to you. Mutual fund securities are not guaranteed by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or by any other government deposit insurer. Past performance may not be repeated. The amount of risk associated with any particular investment depends largely on the investor s own circumstances. Investors should consult their professional advisors/consultants regarding the suitability of the investment solutions mentioned in this presentation. This document may contain forward-looking statements about general economic factors which are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risk and uncertainties, so it is possible that predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forwardlooking statement. All opinions in forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. PH&N IM is a division of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM Inc.). RBC GAM Inc. is the manager and principal portfolio adviser of the Phillips, Hager & North (PH&N) investment funds. RBC GAM Inc. is registered with the various securities commissions of Canada as a portfolio manager, which permits it to provide discretionary investment management services to its clients, and as an exempt market dealer which permits it to act as a dealer for prospectus exempt trades in certain circumstances. RBC GAM Inc. is also registered as an Investment Fund Manager in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador and as a Commodity Trading Manager in Ontario. Each of RBC GAM Inc. and BlueBay Asset Management LLP (BlueBay) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada, and an affiliated company and may be considered as related issuers and/or connected issuers under applicable securities legislation. / Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. RBC Global Asset Management Inc., IC
22
23
24 V A N C O U V E R Waterfront Centre, 20 th Floor 200 Burrard Street Vancouver, British Columbia V6C 3N5 Canada T T O R O N T O 22 nd Floor 155 Wellington St. West Toronto, Ontario M5V 3K7 Canada T M O N T R É A L 6 th Floor, North Wing 1 Place Ville Marie Montréal, Québec H3B 1Z5 Canada T
Diversified Growth Funds IIES 2017
Diversified Growth Funds IIES 2017 Agenda Background Overview of Diversified Growth Funds (DGFs) DGF Example & Comparison Appendix 1 Background A Challenging Environment Has Led to New Investor Realities
More informationCustomized Approaches to Multi-Asset Portfolios
Customized Approaches to Multi-Asset Portfolios The Investment Landscape Has Changed New Challenges Require New Solutions Institutional investors are facing increasingly challenging economic, regulatory
More informationBuilding Efficient Return Seeking Portfolios Reassessing the Equity Allocation
Building Efficient Return Seeking Portfolios Reassessing the Equity Allocation Paul M. Martin, CFA Vice President & Portfolio Manager Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Sources of Risk in a
More informationWhat new investment products are on the horizon?
WORKSHOP 3 What new investment products are on the horizon? Philip Falls, Practice Leader and Senior Investment Consultant, PBI Actuarial Andrew Sweeney, Vice President & Institutional Portfolio Manager,
More informationESG: A Source of Alpha and Reduced Risk IIES 2017
ESG: A Source of Alpha and Reduced Risk IIES 2017 RBC GAM 2016 Responsible Investing Survey Results U.S. Institutional Asset Owners, Wealth Managers and Consultants Q: Do you think of ESG as an Alpha
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook November Jim Allworth RBC Ds Investment Strategist
Economic and Market Outlook November 2018 Jim Allworth RBC Ds Investment Strategist October 2018 Our Long-Term Operating Framework Credit conditions remain extremely accommodative Every U.S. recession
More informationPHILLIPS, HAGER & NORTH BALANCED PENSION TRUST
BALANCED FUND PHILLIPS, HAGER & NORTH BALANCED PENSION TRUST December 31, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
More informationUnderstanding the sell-off in emerging market assets and get ready to be greedy
Understanding the sell-off in emerging market assets and get ready to be greedy The move higher in US interest rates and the US dollar was the catalyst for the sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets that
More informationPractical De-Risking Solutions: Low Volatility Equity Strategies
Investment Strategies 2015 Practical De-Risking Solutions: Low Volatility Equity Strategies With significant returns generated by equity markets over the past five years, institutional portfolios are generally
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationRBC QUBE Market Neutral World Equity Fund (CAD Hedged)
RBC QUBE Market Neutral World Equity Fund (CAD Hedged) Q3 2017 Quarterly Report Performance As of September 30, 2017 Three Month Year to Date One Year Three Year Since Inception* RBC QUBE Market Neutral
More informationImplementing Portable Alpha Strategies in Institutional Portfolios
Expected Return Investment Strategies Implementing Portable Alpha Strategies in Institutional Portfolios Interest in portable alpha strategies among institutional investors has grown in recent years as
More informationTHE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Corinne Luu ECO/MPD 23 March 2017
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Corinne Luu ECO/MPD 23 March 2017 Global GDP growth to pick up modestly, boosted by fiscal initiatives Quarterly global growth Global GDP growth projections Note: Estimated
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationForeign Exchange Outlook. Making Progress
2013-14 Foreign Exchange Outlook Making Progress Camilla Sutton Chief Currency Strategist 2012 Forecast vs Performance SCOTIABANK FORECASTS VS ACTUAL RETURNS (2012) 8 4 % return 0 JPY CAD GBP AUD EUR -4-8
More informationGlobal Sovereign Conference Singapore 6 September
Global Sovereign Conference Singapore September 1 --- --- Politics, Populism and the Global Economy Brian Coulton Chief Economist --- --- Key Messages World economy muddling along but global macro risks
More informationRBC Dominion Securities Inc. Festive Lunch November 12 th, 2015
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Festive Lunch November 12 th, 2015 2012 Total Returns Paul Alofs President & CEO 2 A peek inside the Economics Department 2012 Total Returns 3 Focus on Four Themes The U.S.
More informationRBC STRATEGIC GLOBAL DIVIDEND LEADERS ETF
GLOBAL EQUITY ETF RBC STRATEGIC GLOBAL DIVIDEND LEADERS ETF December 31, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More information2018 Pension Trusts Interim Report
PHILLIPS, HAGER & NORTH FUNDS 2018 Pension Trusts Interim Report Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management is a division of RBC Global Asset Management Inc., the Manager of the Funds and an indirect
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationTradex Equity Fund Annual General Meeting. April 26, 2018 Andrew Mitchell, CFA, Portfolio Manager Beecher Rusin, CIM, Associate
Tradex Equity Fund Annual General Meeting April 26, 2018 Andrew Mitchell, CFA, Portfolio Manager Beecher Rusin, CIM, Associate "Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is
More informationMonthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)
Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional
More informationINFLECTION POINT. Why Now Is The Time To Invest In Emerging Markets. RBC GAM Fundamental Series
INFLECTION POINT Why Now Is The Time To Invest In Emerging Markets RBC GAM Fundamental Series RBC GAM Fundamental Series Inflection Point: Why Now Is the Time to Invest in Emerging Markets 1 Executive
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationPractical De-Risking Solutions: Asset Duration and Interest Rate Risk
Investment Strategies 2015 Practical De-Risking Solutions: Asset Duration and Interest Rate Risk The funded positions of pension plans have improved significantly since the 2008 credit crisis, and plans
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationCorporate Bond Market Trends: BBB Rated Bonds Gaining Importance
Investment Insights Corporate Bond Market Trends: BBB Rated Bonds Gaining Importance The Canadian corporate bond market has undergone a number of material changes in the last 20 years, and as a result
More informationGlobal Macro Outlook Subdued Growth, Tail Risks Diminishing ANNE VAN PRAAGH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOVEREIGN RATINGS
Global Macro Outlook 2014-15 Subdued Growth, Tail Risks Diminishing ANNE VAN PRAAGH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOVEREIGN RATINGS OCTOBER, 2014 Agenda 1. Economic Strength: o Global Growth Lower, But EMs Approaching
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationGlobal economic issues and the impact on Shipping
1st Annual Marine Money Cyprus Forum Global economic issues and the impact on Shipping Andreas Assiotis, PhD 26 April 2017 Table of contents 1 2 3 4 5 Economic Fundamentals and Global Drivers 3 Global
More informationINTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
2018 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES Justin Thomson Portfolio Manager, CIO, Equity November 14, 2017 FOR 2018 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING. PROVIDED TO DESIGNATED MEMBERS
More informationEconomic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries
Economic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries January 17, 2017 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL Aaron Institute for Economic Policy Annual Conference May 4, 217 Craig Beaumont, European Department, IMF Outline World economic outlook (WEO) Broader trends
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator February 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Charles Waters cwaters@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator February
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator July 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Allison Hay ahay@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator July 2018 A
More informationMarket Briefing: Gold
Market Briefing: Gold January 3, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table
More informationWorld Economy: Prospects and Risks Masahiro Kawai Graduate School of Public Policy Univ. of Tokyo
World Economy: Prospects and Risks Masahiro Kawai Graduate School of Public Policy Univ. of Tokyo Seoul 13 June 2017 Prospects of the World Economy The world economy is growing in 2017 The US Fed continues
More informationFIXED-INCOME FUND. December 31, Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM )
FIXED-INCOME FUND December 31, 2017 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) Sub-Advisor: RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, London, England (for a portion of the Fund) The
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationInvesting in a Low Yield Environment: Looking Beyond Interest Rate Anticipation
Investment Insights Investing in a Low Yield Environment: Looking Beyond Interest Rate Anticipation In the context of historically low interest rates, the future prospects for bond yields and the impact
More informationEconomic outlook: Manitoba in the middle
Economic outlook: Manitoba in the middle May 17, 2016 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures
More informationApril 13, Economics Research - Globanomics - Q4/16. Globanomics. World s Dashboard of Economic Indicators Q4 2016
April 13, 2017 Economics Research - Globanomics - Q4/16 Globanomics World s Dashboard of Economic Indicators Q4 2016 Globanomics: Global Economic Indicators Q4 16 1 Quarter at a Glance The IMF revised
More informationRBC SELECT VERY CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO
PORTFOLIO SOLUTION RBC SELECT VERY CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved
More informationMarket Review and Outlook. Todd Centurino, CFA
Market Review and Outlook Todd Centurino, CFA Q1 2017 Global Economy: On the Upswing Ranked Returns (%) Emerging Market Equities 11.40 European Equities 7.40 US Equities 6.10 Global Bonds 2.00 US Treasuries
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March LOWDER BROOK DRIVE SUITE 1100 WESTWOOD MA FAX
March 208 M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 00 LOWDER BROOK DRIVE SUITE 00 WESTWOOD MA 02090 78 47 3500 FAX 78 47 34 Global Economic Outlook The IMF continues to forecast a slight pick-up in growth
More information2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:
217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term
More informationMarket Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar
Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar March 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationGlobal growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.
Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion
More informationFUNDAMENTALS. Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation?
December 2016 Trumpflation* Follow us @LGIM #Fundamentals FUNDAMENTALS Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation? Although the cycle is maturing, global growth should hold up well next year. However, increasing
More informationHighlights and key messages for business and public policy
Highlights and key messages for business and public policy Key projections 2018 2019 Real GDP growth 1.5% 1.6% Consumer spending growth 1.1% 1.3% Inflation (CPI) 2.7% 2.3% Source: PwC main scenario projections
More informationASIA EX JAPAN: NEITHER BOOM NOR DOOM
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing ASIA EX JAPAN: NEITHER BOOM NOR DOOM Anh Lu Portfolio Manager (Asia ex Japan Equity Strategy) The Good news, the Bad News, Our Outlook The Good News Not a crisis
More informationRBC SELECT CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO
PORTFOLIO SOLUTION June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved this interim management report of fund
More informationGlobal Banks: 1H Recap, Review & Update
By John Hadwen, August 2, 2018 How has the global Financials sector fared in the first half of 2018? Here are my key takeaways on the recent performance of North American and European banks, as well as
More informationRBC RETIREMENT 2030 PORTFOLIO
PORTFOLIO SOLUTION June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved this interim management report of fund
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 January 2019
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global economic growth is expected to have peaked in 2018 at 3.0% and to ease to 2.8% in 2019. Tightening global monetary conditions, fading US fiscal
More informationEconomic Update. Port Finance Seminar. Paul Bingham. Global Insight, Inc. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc.
Economic Update Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. Port Finance Seminar Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. Baltimore, MD May 16, 26 The World Economy: Is the Risk of a Boom-Bust Rising? As the U.S. Economy
More informationRBC SELECT BALANCED PORTFOLIO
PORTFOLIO SOLUTION June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved this interim management report of fund
More informationRBC STRATEGIC INCOME BOND FUND
FIXED-INCOME FUND RBC STRATEGIC INCOME BOND FUND June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved this interim
More informationCredit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update
Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed
More informationPMI and economic outlook
PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every
More informationPHILLIPS, HAGER & NORTH CANADIAN EQUITY VALUE FUND
CANADIAN EQUITY FUND PHILLIPS, HAGER & NORTH CANADIAN EQUITY VALUE FUND June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
U.S. Economic Outlook STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR Recessions Are Few and Far Between Business cycle status, January 2017 Source: Moody s Analytics Recession At Risk Recovery Expansion Wage Growth
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationYield curve and credit spreads signal low US recession risk
= Yield curve and credit spreads signal low US recession risk Many market participants are fearful that the narrowing gap between the yield on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes signals that the US
More informationLooking Beyond Traditional Equity Approaches: Relaxing the Long-Only Constraint
Investment Strategies Looking Beyond Traditional Equity Approaches: Relaxing the Long-Only Constraint Low yields and evolving long-term expectations have driven many institutional investors to explore
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationGLOBAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS
SUMMER 2017 GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS Direction of rates Soo Boo Cheah, MBA, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited Suzanne Gaynor V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager RBC Global
More informationMarket Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin January 20, 2016 China: Still sneezing hard In brief Slower 4Q15 GDP growth and soft December data add to concerns about China s economic health. On a more encouraging note,
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationEconomic Imbalances in the post-maastricht Treaty World A Look at Global and European Implications and Investment Conclusions
Economic Imbalances in the post-maastricht Treaty World A Look at Global and European Implications and Investment Conclusions JOHN W. BECK Senior Vice President Co-Director, Global Fixed Income Franklin
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationAsian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016
Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.
More informationEconomic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012.
Economic Outlook Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012 Mark Carney Mark Carney Governor Agenda Three global forces The consequences
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected
More informationGLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017
GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationAt the end of this report, we summarize some important Year-End Considerations which employers should be prepared to address.
Global Report December 2009 Retirement Plan Accounting Assumptions at 2009 This report supplements our June 2009 Global Report, which presented the results of Hewitt Associates global survey of 2008 year-end
More information2015 Pension Trusts Annual Report
PHILLIPS, HAGER & NORTH FUNDS 2015 Pension Trusts Annual Report Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management is a division of RBC Global Asset Management Inc., the Manager of the Funds and an indirect
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationFUNDAMENTALS. Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation?
December 2016 Trumpflation* Follow us @LGIM #Fundamentals FUNDAMENTALS Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation? Although the cycle is maturing, global growth should hold up well next year. However, increasing
More informationNational Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria
National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds.
More informationBANJARAN ASSET MANAGEMENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2017
BANJARAN ASSET MANAGEMENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2017 Developed Equity Markets Will Outperform. From a global macro perspective, we believe risks to growth and inflation are tilted to the upside in the G3 economies.
More informationGlobal Consumer Confidence
Global Consumer Confidence The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen 4TH QUARTER 2017 RESULTS CONTENTS Global Highlights Asia-Pacific Africa and
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More information