Economic and Market Outlook November Jim Allworth RBC Ds Investment Strategist
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1 Economic and Market Outlook November 2018 Jim Allworth RBC Ds Investment Strategist October 2018
2 Our Long-Term Operating Framework Credit conditions remain extremely accommodative Every U.S. recession but two in the past 100 years has been preceded by the arrival of tight money Every U.S. recession has been associated with a bear market for stocks It could be a year, probably longer, before credit tightens enough to make a U.S. recession inevitable Give equities the benefit of the doubt until then but be prepared to lean against risk when it arrives.
3 Bull markets don t die of old age. they are murdered by U.S. recessions Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve
4 Pros All 6 indicators claims, u rate, yield curve, FF rate vs nominal growth rate, Leading Index, ISM new orders minus inventories say no recession in sight Inversion of the yield curve at least 4 hikes away S&P cycle peak has never occurred more than two months prior to inversion, sometimes long after Breadth (advance-decline line) all recently at new highs A/D line usually starts to diverge from the index four to six months before S&P peaks P/E multiple far from expensive
5 Cons Global PMIs have probably peaked Fed tone suggests hikes may come faster, market not buying it. Most Central Banks tightening in one form or another Earnings have further to go but earnings momentum and p/e s may have peaked Financials have been weaker Sentiment still too complacent
6 Watch the U.S. consumer 71% of GDP Unemployment rate near 50 year low, UI claims at all time lows, 7+ million jobs going begging Last month 61% of small/medium businesses tried to hire but 87% unable to find qualified applicants - only 3% say credit is a problem. $9+ trillion (50% of GDP) sitting in bank accounts owned by individuals earning nothing. More than twice that in money, bond, and stock funds, in ETFs, and in direct ownership of securities. Labour tightness gradually pushing wage inflation higher average hourly wages of job movers growing at 4%+ - but so far the Fed looks to be ahead of the curve.
7 QoQ % change -45 Senior loan officer survey on bank lending practices Loan officers reporting tightening standards -25 Easing Tightening Mortgage loans to individuals (inverted) Commercial & industrial loans (inverted) Source: Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics
8 QoQ % change -40 ECB Euro Area bank lending survey Banks reporting tightening credit standards -20 Easing Tightening Loans to individuals for house purchases (inverted) Loans to enterprises (inverted) Source: European Central Bank, Haver Analytics
9 Manufacturing PMI Global growth momentum peaked as trade worries mount Global manufacturing growth retreated from peak Expansion Contraction J.P.Morgan Global PMI Developed markets PMI Emerging markets PMI Note: PMI refers to Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing sector, a measure for economic activity. Source: Haver Analytics, RBC GAM
10 Percentage points Trump economic effect: short-term boost, longer-term drag Effect of Trump policies on U.S. GDP Negative economic effect on GDP growth later (protectionism, less immigration, fading fiscal stimulus) Positive effect on GDP growth in short run (confidence, deregulation, -0.8 tax cuts, spending bill) Cumulative effect on GDP level Effect on annual GDP growth Source: RBC GAM assumptions and calculations
11 Likelihood U.S. economy most likely late cycle no big change this quarter U.S. business cycle probability Conceivably here Most likely here A smaller but material risk Start of cycle Early cycle Mid cycle Late cycle End of cycle Note: Calculated via scorecard technique by RBC GAM. Source: RBC GAM Recession 11
12 4.00 Yield differential between the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note and the 1-year Note Indicates where yield curve inverts Shaded areas indicate recessions
13 Time between inversion and the peak of the market Month of yield curve inversion inverts Month recession begins begins Interval between Month of yield curve inversion inverts Month S&P peaks Interval between Dec-56 Sep-57 9 Dec-56 Jul-57 7 Sep-59 May-60 8 Sep-59 Aug-60-1 Apr-68 Jan Apr-68 Dec-68 8 Mar-73 Dec-73 9 Mar-73 Jan-73-2 Sep-78 Jan Sep-78 Sep-78 0 Sep-80 Jul Sep-80 Dec-80 3 Feb-89 Jul Feb-89 Jul Apr-00 Mar Apr-00 Mar-00-1 Jan-06 Dec Jan-06 Oct average 14 months average 5.8 months median 11 months median 3 months GPAC 13 October 2016 RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group - U.S. Equities
14 The Leading Indicator suggests there is no recession in sight U.S. real GDP growth (left scale) U.S. leading indicator YoY % change (right scale) Sources: Conference Board; Dept. of Commerce:RBC Wealth
15 Monetary stimulus has passed its peak Peak monetary stimulus Improving growth/inflation Disappearing economic slack Fed rate hikes, staged balance sheet decline BoE QE ending this year? ECB QE monthly purchases cut by two-thirds, ending this year? Rising yields? Source: RBC GAM
16 U.S. rate hikes continue to plod along 6 U.S. Fed tightening, but remains accommodative First tightening cycle since June Note: Shaded area represents recession. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM 16
17 Inflation could surprise to the upside forcing the Fed s hand NY Fed Underlying Inflation Gauge (adv 18 mos) Core CPI Sources: New York Federal Reserve; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 17
18 How high do rates have to go? Percentage Point Gap between Federal Funds Rate and Nominal GDP Growth Rate (YoY) Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
19 Unemployment claims bottom long before a recession begi 700, , , , , , , Recession periods Unemployment claims Unemployment claims smoothed trend Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
20 12.0 U.S. Unemployment Rate Recession Periods Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Smoothed 0 Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor; National Bureau of Economic Research
21 Difference between ISM New Orders Index and ISM Inventories Index 3 month moving average source: Institute for Supply Management Recession Periods Moving Average
22 millions Employment Sources: U.S. Labor Department; Statscan Canada (Left scale) United States millions
23 GDP growth (YoY % change) Canada and U.S. have strikingly similar growth trends Canadian and U.S. growth moved in sync Canada U.S. Source: BEA, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM
24 Size of tariff A second dimension to tariff math: duration Heat map of cumulative tariff pain Months Quarters Years Permanent Entire focus is on size of tariff Slightly negative Negative Trade war Duration but how long tariffs last is just as relevant Legal according to WTO law? Legal according to U.S. law? Trump to tolerate economic pain? Congress to halt tariffs? Future President s stance? Source: RBC GAM 24
25 U.S. trade scenarios for Scenario Worst case Negative Slightly negative Neutral Best case Likelihood 20% 35% 25% 10% 10% Detail Economic effect Trade war US: -0.7 to -4.0% CN: -0.8 to -1.8% CA: -1.1 to -4.8% Substantial increase in tariffs US: -0.4 to -0.8% CN: -0.4 to -0.8% CA: -0.4 to -0.8% Several smallish tariffs US: -0.3% CN: -0.2% CA: -0.4% Reverse Trump tariffs US: 0.0% CN: 0.0% CA: 0.0% Foreign barriers fall to pressure US: positive CN:? CA:? Other thoughts: Most trade models say protectionism damage is fairly small (see above). U.S. giving tariff exemptions to importers of certain sub-products. Governments compensating adversely affected exporters. Trade uncertainty likely exerting economic drag in meantime. Damage to corporations may be several times larger than hit to GDP. Ossa (2015) argues standard models understate gains from trade by factor of 2-3. Integrated U.S.-China and North American supply chains increase damage for multi-nationals. Source: RBC GAM
26 Canadian conventional 5-year mortgage lending rate (ppt, 5-year change) Higher rates to be a drag on Canadian housing market 0.8 Mortgage rates now higher for renewers Mortgages renew at higher rate Mortgages renew at lower rate Source: CMHC, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM
27 Canadian housing sending conflicting signals Housing starts (# of units) Existing sales (# of units) Home prices (% growth) Canada Toronto Vancouver Level Momentum Level Momentum Level Momentum Strong Neutral Strong Neutral Strong Negative Weak Positive Weak Positive Weak Negative Weak Negative Weak Neutral Weak Negative Note: Housing starts refer to number of units started, existing sales represent number of existing units sold, home prices measured as MLS Home Price Index growth rate. Momentum evaluated as 6-month rate of change of the variable used in the level series (home price momentum also considered 1-month and 3-month price acceleration/deceleration). Source: Haver Analytics, RBC GAM
28 OECD crude oil surplus stocks (million barrels) Global oil markets tighten Global oil inventory already in small deficit Note: OECD commercial crude oil inventory less 5-year average of commercial stocks. Source: EIA, RBC GAM
29 Summary Thoughts Bull market intact and likely to be so until before a recession arrives probably not before late 2019, perhaps beyond. Give equities the benefit of the doubt. Market usually peaks around the time the yield curve inverts occasionally well after. Market peak usually preceded by breadth break down by 3 to 6 months. No such breadth breakdown in evidence. Watch Fed, unemployment, credit availability. Market in 2018 has been oscillating between an attractive 16X earnings and a riskier 20X earnings. Focus on rebalancing, culling/replacing stocks that no longer earn high conviction. Pay attention to risk in fixed income markets.
30 Disclosure This document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM) for informational purposes only and is intended for institutional or professional investors only. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published without RBC GAM s prior written consent. This document does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or to sell any security, product or service in any jurisdiction, nor is it intended to provide any advice of any kind. This document is not available for distribution to people in jurisdictions where such distribution would be prohibited. RBC GAM is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes the following affiliates around the world, all indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of RBC: RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (including Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management), RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., RBC Alternative Asset Management Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited, BlueBay Asset Management LLP, and BlueBay Asset Management USA LLC. In Canada, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. which is regulated by each provincial and territorial securities commission with which it is registered. In the United States, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., a federally registered investment adviser. In the United Kingdom, Europe and the Middle East, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). In Hong Kong, this document is provided by RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited, which is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All views, opinions and estimates expressed herein are as at the date(s) indicated, are subject to change without notice, and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. To the full extent permitted by law, neither RBC GAM nor any affiliate nor any other person accepts liability for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the information contained herein. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by RBC GAM as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. RBC GAM assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward-looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future results or events. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Do not place undue reliance on these statements because actual results or events may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Before making any investment decisions, we encourage you to consider all relevant factors carefully. / TM Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. RBC Global Asset Management Inc., Publication date: October 1, 2016
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