Global FX Insights by LMAX Exchange Research & Analytics Comprehensive daily market research and analytics, with insightful commentary and charts

Transcription

1 Get Global FX Insights via - click here Global FX Insights by LMAX Exchange Research & Analytics Comprehensive daily market research and analytics, with insightful commentary and charts Euro Suffers Manageable Blow on Priced No Vote Wake-up Call Indeed, the Euro has come under pressure on confirmation of the NO victory in the Italian referendum, which has opened the door for the PM's resignation, while also setting the stage for a new government down the road that could have anti EU leanings. The big worry right now is if this will intensify fears in the Italian banking sector. Technical highlights EURUSD Risk still tilted lower GBPUSD Bearish below USDJPY Correction underway EURCHF Sights set on 2016 low AUDUSD Rallies well capped USDCAD Looking for higher low NZDUSD Deeper setbacks ahead US SPX 500 Below 2180 shifts focus GOLD (spot) Trying to bottom out Feature USDTRY Goes parabolic Daily Video Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro drop supported post Italian NO vote GBPUSD Pound recovers on softer Brexit outlook USDJPY Yen declines could slow on risk off themes EURCHF SNB headache worsens post referendum AUDUSD Aussie looking to Tuesday s RBA decision USDCAD Loonie gets another boost on solid jobs data NZDUSD Key resignation catches Kiwis off guard US SPX 500 Fed policy path a big worry for stocks GOLD (spot) Fundamentals support despite USD Feature USDTRY Turkish CPI not likely to factor Five day performance v. US dollar Suggested reading Irrational Exuberance 20 Years On, A. Haigh, Bloomberg (December 4, 2016) Get Popcorn Ready for Trump/Fed Battle, M. Melin, ValueWalk (December 2, 2016) Page 1 of 12

2 EURUSD technical overview The latest break below the 2016 low at now opens the door for a deeper drop into longer-term support in the form of the multi-year base from 2015 at Any rallies should remain well capped below , with a only a break above this figure to take the immediate pressure off the downside. R Dec high Strong R Dec high Medium S Dec/2016 low Medium S low Very Strong EURUSD fundamental overview As had been projected, the NO vote in the Italian referendum has come through and PM Renzi has offered his resignation. The initial reaction has also been unsurprising, with the Euro under pressure but mostly held in check and supported given how much the event had already been priced in. The focus will quickly shift to the upcoming ECB meeting this week, with many anticipating continued support for the single currency on dips given speculation of the ECB signaling a tapering. There are however major stops built up below the multi-year base from 2015 at and if that level is taken out, it could accelerate declines and ultimately expose parity. Looking ahead, the market will continue to digest the Italian referendum results, while also taking in German and Eurozone services PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, Eurozone investor confidence, US ISM non-manufacturing and some Fed speak. Page 2 of 12

3 GBPUSD technical overview The market has broken out of a multi session consolidation off the multi-year low, which has opened a sizable correction higher. Ultimately, there is room to run a little more to the area without compromising the intense downtrend, with a lower top sought out in favour of a bearish resumption back towards Only a weekly close above would compromise the structure. A daily close below will put the immediate pressure back on the downside. R Jul low Strong R Dec High Medium S Dec low Medium S Nov low Strong GBPUSD fundamental overview An impressive recovery for the Pound over the past week, with the UK currency outperforming across the board. The relative outperformance comes from a repricing of Brexit risk, with many feeling more optimistic about the currency s outlook now that talk of access to the single market has come back on the table. The anti-brexit Lib Dem victory in last Friday s by-election has also been supporting the Pound, with the currency getting yet another boost against the Euro early Monday on cross related EURGBP sales post the Italian referendum NO vote. Looking ahead, we get UK services PMIs, US ISM non-manufacturing and some Fed speak. Page 3 of 12

4 USDJPY technical overview The major pair has seen an intense bullish shift in recent days, with the most recent break above exposing fresh upside towards next meaningful resistance in the area. However, daily studies are looking stretched which suggests that additional upside could be limited in favour of a more significant healthy corrective pullback. But ultimately, any setbacks are expected to be well supported above previous resistance at R Dec high Strong R Figure Medium S Dec low Medium S Nov low Strong USDJPY fundamental overview The reality of the NO vote in the Italian referendum opened the door for some initial downside in the major pair on the open, though the setbacks were contained as most of this negative risk had already been priced into the market ahead of the event. USDJPY was content to quickly jump back above reverting to broader flows that had been dictating price action. Overall, yield differentials and policy divergence are still the primary drivers of Yen weakness, though the emergence of risk liquidation could invite a period of renewed Yen demand, especially after the Yen has already fallen so far and fast in recent weeks. Looking ahead, we get US ISM non-manufacturing and some Fed speak. Page 4 of 12

5 EURCHF technical overview A recent close below which had been defined as the bottom of a multi-week range strengthens the bearish outlook and opens the door for an acceleration of declines towards the 2016 low at At this point, a daily close back above would now be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside and suggest the market is once again looking settle back into the previous range. R Oct high Strong R Nov high Medium S Nov low Medium S Jun/2016 low Strong EURCHF fundamental overview The SNB has unquestionably had a challenging time of late, with the central bank forced to contend with an ongoing wave of demand for the Swiss Franc, mostly recently in the aftermath of this latest Italian referendum NO vote. The central bank has been committed to its mandate of ensuring the Franc does not appreciate further through monetary policy and intervention tools. Though despite all efforts, the Franc continues to want to appreciate against the Euro. It seems the strategy has been to buy Euro when risk comes off and to do nothing when risk is back on and natural flows should be CHF bearish. But the trouble is, with risk mostly on and global equities elevated, the Franc is still not depreciating as much as the SNB would probably like to see and if global risk sentiment deteriorates, it could invite a massive wave of demand for the Franc that the SNB will be unable to offset. Page 5 of 12

6 AUDUSD technical overview The latest break below is a significant development and now opens the door for deeper setbacks towards next key support at in the days ahead. At this point, look for any rallies to be well capped ahead of Only back above delays the bearish outlook. R Nov high Strong R Nov high Medium S Dec low Medium S Nov low Strong AUDUSD fundamental overview The Australian Dollar has largely ignored the fallout from the Italian referendum and is instead more focused on upcoming event risk in the form of early Tuesday s RBA policy decision. While no change is expected on rates, it will be interesting to see what kind of tone the RBA gives off now that the market has shifted from pricing in rate cuts down the road to rate hikes. The RBA will be pleased with the lower Aussie exchange rate, demand from China and a nice recovery in iron ore and copper prices, but it will also not be wanting to get too hawkish with labour market data regressing and showing plenty of slack. Looking ahead to the rest of Monday s calendar, US ISM non-manufacturing and some Fed speak stand out. Page 6 of 12

7 USDCAD technical overview This market looks to be in the process of carving out a longer-term base off the , 2016 low. Look for any additional weakness to be supported well ahead of in favour of the next major upside extension towards a measured move objective into the area. Ultimately, only back below would delay the constructive outlook. R Nov high Strong R Nov low Medium S Dec low Strong S Figure Medium USDCAD fundamental overview The Canadian Dollar is one of the stronger currencies over the past week. Most of the gains have come from an impressive rally in the price of OIL post the OPEC production cut agreement, though economic data out of Canada hasn t been all that bad either. Last week s impressive GDP showing was followed up on Friday with an above forecast Canada employment report. Still, it s worth noting a bit of deception in the headline print as most of the jobs came out of the part time sector. Overall, yield differentials, monetary policy divergence with the Fed and the threat of risk liquidation are all forces that ultimately could weigh more heavily on the Loonie going forward with dealers reporting healthy Canadian Dollar offers into this latest rally. Looking ahead, IS ISM non-manufacturing and some Fed speak stand out. Page 7 of 12

8 NZDUSD technical overview Despite the latest bounce, the overall pressure has shifted back to the downside with the market now expected to be very well capped on rallies ahead of Look for a fresh lower top at in favour of the next major downside extension below and towards medium-term support at further down. R Nov high Strong R Nov high Medium S Dec low Medium S Psychological Strong NZDUSD fundamental overview While most of the market was focused on a PM Renzi resignation early Monday, over in New Zealand, it was the shocking announcement of PM Key s resignation that had local traders attention. According to the PM, it was time time to step down given his level of exhaustion and toll the position had taken on his family over the years. Still, not much of a reaction in the Kiwi market, with participants seemingly confident in the prospect of a competent successor in the form of Deputy PM English. Looking ahead, we get US ISM non-manufacturing and some Fed speak. Page 8 of 12

9 US SPX 500 technical overview While this latest surge back to a fresh record high could compromise what has been the possibility for a toppish structure, the risk is still tilted to the downside if the market fails to establish above 2200 on a monthly close basis. But ultimately, at this point, any topside failure will also need to be met with a break back below 2100 to once again encourage the possibility for a bearish structural shift. Initial support comes in at 2181, with a break below to take the immediate pressure off the topside. R Psychological Strong R Nov/Record high Medium S Nov low Medium S Oct high Strong US SPX 500 fundamental overview The ongoing support for US equities has been more than impressive, particularly at a time when the Fed is about to embark on a steady path to policy normalisation. But the market will need to once again think about the bigger, more worrying issue at hand, which is an exhaustion of global monetary policy tools globally and an inability for central banks to continue to support and stimulate growth. This leaves financial markets vulnerable to any shocks and exposed to intense periods of additional risk liquidation going forward, especially at a time when the Fed is moving further away from accommodation. One such minor shock that is weighing in Monday trade has been the NO vote in the Italian referendum, with many now fearing systemic risk associated with a stifled Italian bank recapitalisation process and threat to the EU. Page 9 of 12

10 GOLD (SPOT) technical overview Despite a major setback, the overall structure remains constructive with the market in the process of carving out a longerterm base. Look for any weakness to be very well supported above 1130, with only a close back below this level to negate the basing outlook and give reason for pause. Back above strengthens the outlook and should accelerate gains towards a retest of the 2016 peak at R Nov high Strong R Nov high Medium S Dec low Medium S Psychological Strong GOLD (SPOT) fundamental overview GOLD has suffered quite a blow over the past several days, with the yellow metal unable to ignore the intense rotation into the US Dollar. However, solid demand from medium and longer-term players continues to emerge on dips despite the setbacks, with these players more concerned about the limitations of exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, systemic risk and a bet that record low inflation will turn up even faster in a Trump presidency. All of this will almost certainly continue to keep the commodity in demand, even if the Buck is propped, with many market participants fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. Page 10 of 12

11 Feature technical overview USDTRY continues to push into unchartered territory, breaking to yet another record high, this time through psychological barriers at , stalling just shy of While the uptrend remains firmly intact, daily studies are now at the point where they are overextended. This warns of some form of a major corrective pullback ahead to allow for these studies to unwind. Medium-term studies are also extended, yet another indication we could soon see a period of correction. Ultimately however, any setbacks should be well supported ahead of R Psychological Strong R Dec/Record High Medium S Nov low Medium S Nov low Strong Feature fundamental overview While it s been clear for some time the Erdogan government has been opposed to rate hikes, with Erdogan even calling for rate cuts in the previous week, it has also been very difficult to ignore the necessity for such action with the Lira continuing to decline to record lows. The other week, the CBRT went ahead and pushed rates up 50 basis points in an effort to offset some of this currency depreciation, though it seems the market is going to need a more aggressive move if it is going to make a dent in the current environment. Event risk and political risk are major headaches on the domestic front, while the CBRT also has to continue to worry about Fed normalisation. One major bank has come out with a downbeat assessment for Turkey and the Lira into 2017, declaring that Turkey has by far the worst external position in CEEMEA. The CBRT s latest financial stability report has tried to paint a more upbeat picture but that s a difficult thing to do when the currency is crashing and you get trade data showing a wider deficit. CPI data on tap but not likely to factor unless it is much softer, which is highly unlikely. Page 11 of 12

12 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this document, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry. LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately. LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange. FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are wholesale clients as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the Permitted Client criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations. LMAX Limited operates a multilateral trading facility. LMAX Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (firm registration number ) and is a company registered in England and Wales (number ). Our registered address is Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London, W11 4AN. Page 12 of 12