Monetary Policy Information Compendium

Transcription

1 Monetary Policy Information Compendium November 26 Consolidated by Statistics & DWH Department STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN

2 Tables and Graphs Real Sector Growth... Saving and Investment Inflation.. 4 External Sector Balance of Payments... 8 Trade and Foreign Investment 9 Global Economy. Fiscal Accounts and Debt Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances.. 2 Government Domestic Debt... External Debt... 4 Total Debt... 5 Monetary Sector Monetary and Credit Aggregates.. 6 Private Sector Credit... 8 Key Indicators of Monetary Sector 9 Trends In Monetary Aggregates.. 2 Financial Markets Money Market... 2 Foreign Exchange Market 27 Capital Market Financial Soundness Indicators II

3 Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector () Groups Monetary Policy Information Compendium Weights Growth YoY change(sep) Cumulative change during (Jul-Sep) FY6 FY5 FY7 FY6 FY7 FY6 Overall Textile Food, beverages and tobacco Petroleum products Iron and steel products Non-metallic mineral products Automobile Fertilizer Pharmaceuticals Paper and board Electronics Chemicals Leather products Wood products Engineering products Rubber products November Overall LSM Growth (YoY) FY6 FY Overall LSM Growth (Cumulative) FY6 FY7 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Major Crops Production Area under cultivation Yield (million tons) change (million hectares) change (Kg/hectare) change FY7 T FY6 FY5 FY4 FY6 over FY5 FY6 FY5 FY6 over FY5 FY6 FY5 Cotton Sugarcane ,84 55,62 Rice ,479 2,422 Wheat ,752 2,726 Cotton production is stated in million bales of 75 lbs each. FY6 over FY T : Target Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Planning Commission of Pakistan. Real Sector

4 Production Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 25-6 () FY6 P Growth Growth Share Contribution FY5 FY4 Agriculture of which Important crops Other crops Livestock Industry of which Manufacturing Large-scale Small-scale Construction Services of which Wholesale & retail trade Transport Storage and Communications Finance & insurance General Government Services Real GDP (basic prices) Real GDP (market prices) FY6 P FY5 R FY4 Real GDP (bp, ),,6,27 Nominal GDP (mp, ) 29,598 27,49 25,69 Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$) Expenditure Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 25-6 () FY6 P Growth Growth Share Contribution 5 FY5 FY4 Consumption Private Government Fixed capital formation Private Public plus general government Changes in stocks Growth in Real GDP at basic price () Actual Target FY2 FY FY4 FY-5 R FY-6 P FY-7 T Growth in Agriculture () Actual Target FY2 FY FY4 FY-5 R FY-6 P FY-7 T Growth in Industry () Actual Target FY2 FY FY4 FY-5 R FY-6 P FY-7 T Growth in Services () Actual Target Net exports of goods and nonfactor services Exports of goods and non-factor services Imports of goods and non-factor services GDP (market prices) FY2 FY FY4 FY-5 R FY-6 P FY-7 T Indirect Taxes Subsidies GDP (basic prices) Total domestic demand For FY6, LSM data pertains to Jul-Mar; 2 GDP in dollar terms is calculated using average exchange rate during the year. Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). 4 Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation and change in stock expenditures on real GDP. 5 Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies. T : Target Real Sector 2

5 as of GDP Monetary Policy Information Compendium Saving and Investment Saving and Investment (at current market prices-25-26) FY7 Target Actual FY6 P FY5 R FY4 A. Investment Gross fixed investment Private sector Public Sector incl. general government Change in capital stocks B. National savings C. Domestic savings Saving investment gap (B - A) of GDP Trends in Saving and Investment Investment Savings FY2 FY FY4 FY5 R FY6 P FY7 T November 26 Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors at Current Market prices FY6 P Percent of GDP Percent Percent of GDP share in total FY5 FY4 Agriculture Mining and quarrying...2. Manufacturing Construction Electricity and gas Transport and communication Wholesale and retail trade Finance and insurance Ownership of dwellings Services Total as of GDP Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors Agriculture Manufacturing Ownership of Dwellings Services Others FY FY2 FY FY4 FY5 R FY6 P Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available. P : Provisional; R : Revised; Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan, Real Sector

6 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Consumer Price Index (CPI) ( change) MoM MoM SA 2 YoY average 4 2M moving Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October Inflation (Calculated from price indices with base year 27-8) Oct-4 Dec-4 Year on Year Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 CPI Inflation Aug-5 2 Month Moving Average Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 November 26 Aug-6 Oct-6 CPI - Food (7.48 % weight in basket) ( change) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct-4 Dec-4 CPI Food Inflation YoY 2 month moving average Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 -year average for October CPI - Non Food (62.52 % weight in basket) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Month-on-Month; 2 Month-on-month changes in seasonally adjusted series; Year-on-Year; 4 These changes are calculated on the basis of 2 month average of CPI over the 2 month average of preceding year. ( change) Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 YoY Apr-5 CPI Non-Food Inflation Jun-5 2 months moving average Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Real Sector 4

7 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Core Inflation - Non-food non-energy (5.52% weight in basket) () 2M moving MoM YoY average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October Oct-4 Dec-4 Core Inflation- Non-Food Non-Energy Feb-5 YoY Apr-5 Jun-5 2 month moving average Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 November 26 Aug-6 Oct-6 Core - 2% Trimmed ( change) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October Oct-4 Dec-4 Core Inflation- 2% Trimmed Mean YoY 2 month moving average Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Wholesale Price Index (WPI) ( change) MoM MoM SA YoY 2M moving average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October...5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 YoY Apr-5 WPI Inflation 2 months moving average Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Real Sector 5

8 Monetary Policy Information Compendium WPI -Food (8.82% weight in basket) ( change) MoM MoM SA YoY 2M moving average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 YoY Apr-5 WPI Inflation - Food Jun-5 2 month moving average Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 November 26 Aug-6 Oct-6 WPI - Non Food (6.8% weight in basket) ( change) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct year average for October Oct-4 Dec-4 YoY Feb-5 WPI Inflation - Non Food 2 months moving average Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Average CPI and WPI Inflation Headline Food Non Food ( change) FY FY FY FY FY CPI WPI Target vs. Actual CPI Inflation Actual Target FY6 (Jul-Oct) FY7 (Jul-Oct) Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP FY FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 Real Sector 6

9 Group-Wise CPI Inflation Groups Monetary Policy Information Compendium CPI and SPI Inflation by Groups Oct-6 Sep-6 Weights MoM YoY 2m MA MoM YoY 2m MA November 26 I. Food group Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Restaurant & hotels II. Non-food group Clothing and footwear Housing, water, electricity, gas fuels Furnishing & household equipment maintenance etc Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Miscellaneous Overall Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) ( change) Income groups 27-Oct-6 -Nov-6 -Nov-6 7-Nov-6 Oct-6 WoW 2 MoM YoY 2m MA Up to Rs Rs Rs Rs Above Rs All SPI Inflation-Weekly SPI Inflation-Monthly YoY 52 Week moving average YoY 2 Month moving average 9-Nov-5 5-Dec-5 -Jan-6 5-Feb-6 2-Mar-6 28-Mar-6 2-Apr-6 9-May-6 4-Jun-6 -Jul-6 5-Aug-6 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 -Aug-6 26-Sep-6 22-Oct-6 7-Nov-6 Twelve month moving average inflation 2 WoW: Week on Week. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Real Sector 7

10 Balance of Payments Summary (million US$) Items A) Current account balance (CAB) Monetary Policy Information Compendium FY7 FY6 FY6 FY5 -,762 -,78 -,262-2,79 Trade balance -6,77-6,24-8,47-7,284 Exports 6,865 7,86 2,97 24,8 Imports,582,29 4,44 4,67 Services (net); of which -, ,76-2,884 CSF 7 97,452 Income (net) -, -,779-5,2-4,58 Current transfers (net); of which 7,45 7,6 2,4 22,4 Remittances 6,258 6,57 9,97 8,72 B) Capital and financial (C&F) account balance ; of which 2,9,744 5,892 5,7 Foreign direct investment (net) , Foreign portfolio investment (net),69-4,884 Other investment assets Other investment liabilities Of which : General government of which: Disbursements Amortization ,87 2, ,457,4,955,8 6,7 4,24,94,79 2,74 2,84 C) Net Errors and omissions Overall balance (A+B+C) ,652 2,646 SBP gross reserves 2 2,298 6,45 9,446 4,86 SBP net liquid reserves 8,925 4,82 8,4,525 As of GDP 4 Jul-Oct Current account balance; of which Exports Imports Balance of Payments November 26 Capital and financial inflows; of which FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 FDI Net FDI equals direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad. 2 SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but it excludes unsettled claims on RBI. SBP reserves without CRR and foreign currency cash holding of SBP. 4 For FY5 revised and for FY6 provisional GDP has been used and average exchange rate has been used to calculate GDP in US$ Current, Capital and Financial Balance (Billion US$) C & F account balance CAB Overall balance Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Current Account Balance (Billion US$) Current account balance As of GDP (RHS) FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 Capital and Financial Account Balance (Billion US$) Capital and financial account As of GDP (RHS) Workers' Remittances 5 (million US$) Jul-Oct FY7 FY6 YoY growth Jul-Oct FY7 Share Jul- Oct FY7 FY6 FY5 Total inflows 6,258 6, ,97 8,72 USA ,525 2,7 UK ,58 2,76 Saudi Arabia,794, ,968 5,6 UAE,45, ,65 4,22 Other GCC ,42 2,7 All others ,56,66 5 Only cash, 6 Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman Jul Workers' Remittances (Billion US$) FY7 FY6 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. External Sector 8

11 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Trade in Goods -Major Groups (million US$) Jul-Oct Share Jul-Oct FY6 FY5 FY7 FY6 FY7. Exports 6,865 7,86 2,97 24,8 Textile group 4,6 4, ,759, Knitwear, bed wear,499, ,46 4, Cotton cloth , 2, Cotton Yarn ,266,88 Readymade garments ,6 2,44-2. Other manufactures group,64,26 7,8 4,4-2.5 Chemical and pharma ,52,25 Leather items ,7 Cement Engineering goods Jewellery 7 Food group 94,7,75 4,42 Rice ,845 2,8 All others 726,69,7 Imports,582,29 4,44 4,67 Petroleum group,9, ,6 2,44 Petroleum products,97 2,45 5 5,98 7,774 Petroleum crude 79, ,57 4,9 Machinery group 2,27, ,262 5,69 Telecom ,2,225 Electrical machinery 4 97,25 95 Power machinery ,5 84 Agriculture & other chemicals group 2,25 2,68 7 6,75 6,699 Plastic materials ,79,772 Fertilizer manufactured Food group,587, ,6 4,624 Palm oil ,6,68 Tea Metal group 977,26 7,64,247 Iron steel (IS) and IS scrap ,9 2,675 All others,65,9 27,86 8,844 Trade Balance -6,77-6,24-8,47-7,284 Share (in ) is calculated as a ratio of cumulative flow of a group (item) to cumulative flow of total exports/imports during Jul-Oct FY7. 2 Includes tanned and manufactured leather. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (million US$) Jul-Oct YoY FY7 FY6 growth FY6 FY5 Jul-Oct Net Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan (Million US$) FY7 FY7 FY6 Net inflows: Of which ,9 92 Selected Countries USA UAE UK China Selected Sectors Communication Financial businesses Oil and gas exploration Power Trade Memorandum Item: Net overall FDI Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Trade and Foreign Investment Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Export reciepts Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Import payments Trade Balance (Billion US$) FY7 FY6 Sep Oct Oct Nov Exports (Billion US$) Nov Dec YoY growth (RHS, in ) Dec Jan Jan Feb Imports (Billion US$) Feb Mar Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Mar Apr YoY growth (RHS, in ) Apr November 26 May May Jun Jun These numbers correspond to net FDI flows given in the balance of payments table and adjusted for net FDI made by Pakistanis abroad External Sector 9

12 Policy Rates in Major Economies Major economies Monetary Policy Information Compendium Policy rate Current w.e.f Global Economy Previous policy rate USA.5 6-Dec UK.25 4-Aug Euro zone. -Mar Japan. -Feb Canada.5 5-Jul Change (bps) USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Source: Central bank websites Policy Rates November 26 Australia.5 2-Aug China Oct India Oct GDP Growth Rate USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Jul Malaysia. -Jul Indonesia Jun Thailand.5 29-Apr Q-4 Q4-4 Q-5 Source: Central bank websites Q2-5 Q-5 Q4-5 Q-6 Q2-6 Q-6 Key Macroeconomic Indicators Inflation (YoY) Oct-6 USA UK Euro zone Japan Australia China India Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Thailand IMF World Bank OECD Values of Inflation of Japan, India, Australia and Malaysia pertains to September 26; 2 Annual growth, measured as a age change over the same quarter of previous year, GDP growth of Australia, India and Sri Lanka pertains to Q2 of 26; Latest 2 months; 4 The Economist, Economic and Financial indicators, November 9, 26; 5 IMF (IFS) Reserve position data pertains to September 26, Japan, India and Sri Lanka pertains to August 26 while China and Korea pertains to July 26; 6 IMF (IFS) data pertains to September 26 except for Malaysia and Indonesia pertain to August 26, Euro Zone, China, India and Korea pertain to July 26, Sri Lanka pertains to June 26, UK pertains to May 26, Australia pertains to December 25 and Japan pertains to November 25. World Economic Outlook - Real GDP Growth 25 (IMF) GDP growth 2 Q-26 Current account balance Fiscal balance Reserves5 Lending rates 6 (billion US$) as a of GDP 4 Sep-6 Nominal Real 26 Projections CPI Inflation USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka World output Advanced US Euro area Japan UK Emerging & Developing Russia China India ASEAN Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Source: Central bank websites Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and Central Bank Websites. External Sector

13 World Commodity Price Indices (25=) Monetary Policy Information Compendium November 26 Sep-6 End June - 6 All commodity price index Food price index Energy index Non fuel price index Metal price index Crude oil price ($/bbl) * Cotton spot (US cents/ pound) * Palm oil ($/m. ton) Soya bean Oil ($/m. ton) Wheat ($/m. ton) Gold spot ($/Oz) * Sugar (US cents/pound) Capital Market Indices Oct-6 Percent change since Sources: Bloomberg for Crude oil price (Saudi Arabian Light), Cotton Spot and Gold spot. IMF (IFS) for all other items. * Average during the month upto November 2, 26. The age changes have been calculated by taking average prices of current month with the previous month and end June prices. Nov-6 Percent change since Oct-6 Jun-6 US (DJIA) DJ EURO STOXX UK (FTSE ) Japan (Nikkei 225) China (SSEA) France (CAC 4) US$ per barrel Trends in Commodity Price Indices (25=) All primary commodity Food Energy Metal Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Source: IMF-IFS Daily Saudi Arabian Oil Prices and Int. Gold Prices US cents per pound Saudi Arabian Light Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till November 2, 26) Daily International Cotton Prices Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Source : Bloomberg (Updated till November 2, 26) Gold Spot (RHS) 4 2 US$ per ounce Germany (DAX) India (BSE) Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond 2 5-Year (29) -Year (224) -Year (26) World dev'd (MSCI) Emerging Markets (MSCI) World all (MSCI) Updated till November 2, Yr Bond = $ M (Coupon rate = 7.25%): Issued - April 8, 24: Maturity -April 5, 29 Yr Bond = $ M (Coupon rate = 8.25%): Issued - April 8, 24: Maturity - April 5, 224 Yr Bond = $ M (Coupon rate = 7.875%): Issued - Mar 24, 26: Maturity -Mar 2, 26 2-Nov-5 2-Dec-5 2-Jan-6 2-Feb-6 2-Mar-6 2-Apr-6 2-May-6 2-Jun-6 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till November 2, 26) 2-Jul-6 2-Aug-6 2-Sep-6 2-Oct-6 2-Nov-6 Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, OECD, The Economist and Central Bank Websites External Sector

14 Revenues, Expenditures and Fiscal Balances Revenues () FY7 Jul-Sep BE FY7 FY6 FY6 Total revenues 5, ,447 Tax revenue 4, ,66 Growth (YoY) % of which: FBR revenues, ,2 Non-tax revenues, Growth (YoY) % Expenditures () FY7 Jul-Sep BE FY7 FY6 FY6 Total expenditures 6,65,,265 5,796 Current 4,99,7,85 4,694 Growth (YoY) % of which: Interest payments, ,26 Defence Development Expenditure & net lending, ,4 Growth (YoY) % Unidentified Expenditure Overall Balance () FY7 Jul-Sep BE FY7 FY6 FY6 Fiscal balance -, ,49 Revenue balance Primary balance As of GDP 6 Fiscal balance Revenue balance Primary balance , 4,8,6 2,4,2 Non-tax Tax Total revenue as % of GDP (RHS) 7. FY2 Revenues (billion Rupees) 2% 26% 9. 8% 74% 7% 77% 79% 8% 7. FY FY4 29% 2% FY5 FY6 2% FY7 B.E 9% 5... Development Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS) 7,2 25 6, 4,8,6 2,4,2 FY2 9% Expenditures (billion Rupees) 8% 76% 76% FY 24% FY4 24% FY5 2% 8% 79% 76% FY6 2% FY7 B.E 24% Financing of Fiscal Deficit () FY7 BE Financing, ,49. External Domestic 7 : of which, FY7 Jul-Sep FY6 FY6 Non-bank Banking system: of which SBP Scheduled banks ,262 Privatization proceeds Primary Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS) ,4 -,52 -,9 FY2 Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees) FY FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 B.E FBR Tax Collection 8 () Direct Sales Customs FED 9 Total taxes Q Q Q Q FY5,29, ,588 Q Q Q Q ,9 FY6,92, ,2 FY7 Q P Budget Estimates; Estimated from Budget in Brief 26-7, MoF; 2 In Fiscal Accounts, these expenditures are named as 'Statistical Discrepancy'; Fiscal balance = total revenue - total expenditure; 4 Revenue balance = total revenue - current expenditure; 5 Primary balance = total revenue - total expenditure + interest payment; 6 GDP(mp) on new basis (25-26) has been used to calculate deficit to GDP ratios; 7 It includes the amount of Privatization Proceeds; 8 as reported in fiscal accounts; 9 Federal excise duty; P Provisional % 8% 6% 4% 2% % FY2 Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit Privatization proceeds Domestic non-bank 6% % 7% FY 79% 2% % FY4 2% 4% 7% Domestic banking system External FY5 % 4% 6% 58% 25% 5% 4% 42% 2% 27% 8% FY6 FY7 B.E Fiscal Accounts and Debt 2

15 Debt by Owner - end period stocks () FY7 FY6.Bank 9,649 8, Commercial banks 6,77 6, SBP 2,92 2, Non-bank 4,72 4, National saving schemes (NSS),2, Others,4,429 4.Foreign currency instruments 5 5 Total(+2+) 4,86, Debt by Type - end period stocks () Sep-6 P Jun-6 P Jul-Sep Change during FY7 FY6.Permanent debt 5,9 5, PIBs 4,4 4, Prize bonds Others Floating debt 6,482 5,2,48 77 Bai Muajjal 2 2 MTBs,4 2, MRTBs-replenishment 4 2,9 2, Unfunded debt 5 : of which 2,7 2, Saving schemes 2,55 2, Foreign currency instruments 5 5 Total(+2++4) 4,86, Government domestic liabilities Includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs and special USD bonds held by the residents. 2 Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk Years. Includes Rs.. billion of Treasury Bills on Tap. 4 Includes Outright Sale of MRTBs, if any. 5 Includes funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds. 6 This reflects provincial governments borrowings from banks for commodity operations. Government Domestic Debt Sep-6 P Jun-6 P Jul-Sep Change during % 2% 2% % % % 24% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% FY % 2% 9% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 2% 4% 44% 46% 47% 49% 5% 47% Mar-5 Source: SBP, CDNS Source: SBP Source: SBP Stock of Debt (by Owner) Scheduled banks SBP NSS Others Jun-5 22% 2% Sep-5 Dec-5 2% 2% 8% 8% 9% 9% Mar-6 Jun-6 2% 2% Sep-6 9% 7% 7% 45% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 44% 6% Mar-5 Jun-5 Stock of Debt (by Type) Unfunded Floating Permanent 42% 56% 45% % Sep-5 Dec-5 46% 5% Mar-6 Interest Payments by Type of Debt Permanent Floating Unfunded % 4% 7% 2% 54% Jun-6 22% 9% 7% Sep-6 46% % 6% 27% 24% 24% 2% FY FY FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 Debt Servicing () Jul-Sep FY6 FY7 P FY6 Permanent Floating Unfunded Total Indicators of Domestic Debt Sustainability Percent change FY7 over FY Source: SBP, MoF Stock of Domestic Debt (as of GDP) Jun- Jun-2 Jun- Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-2 Jun- Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Debt stock as of GDP Debt servicing as of FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 GDP Total revenue Tax revenue Total expenditure Current expenditure Includes prize bonds; R : Revised; P : Provisional Debt Servicing (as of) Total revenue Total expenditure GDP (RHS) FY FY FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 Source: SBP, MoF Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF). Fiscal Accounts and Debt

16 Debt & Liabilities - end period stocks (million US$) Items Jun-6 P Jun-5 External Debt Change during Jul- Jun-FY6 Debt Servicing (million US$). Public debt (a+b+c) 6,57 54,674 6,68. Public debt (a+b+c),624,9 a) Government debt 5,74 46,86 4,852 a) Government debt,4 2,577 i)long term (> year) 5,26 45,849 4,77 Principal 2,426,66 Paris club 2,678,664,4 Interest,7 94 Multilateral 26,76 24,262 2,4 b) To IMF,264 Other bilateral 4,445,94 5 Principal 5,226 Euro/Sukuk global bonds 4,55 4,55 Interest 5 9 Military debt c) Foreign exchange liabilities 87 9 Commercial loans/credits Principal Local currency Securities (PIBs) 5 2 Interest 87 9 Saudi fund for development (SFD) PSEs guaranteed debt 58 2 SAFE China deposits,, Principal 4 7 NBP/BOC deposits Interest 5 5 ii) Short term (< year),688, PSEs non-guaranteed debt Of which: Multilateral, Principal b) From IMF 6,4 4,,94 Interest 8 2 i) Federal government Scheduled banks' borrowing 8 ii) Central bank 6,4 4,5,992 Principal 8 c) Foreign exchange liabilities (FEL) 2,6,79-9 Interest 2.Public sector enterprises(pses) 2,86 2, Private guaranteed debt a) Guaranteed debt, Private non-guaranteed debt b) Non-guaranteed debt,54,52 29 Principal Scheduled banks 2,696 2, Interest 8 65 a)borrowing,68, Private non-guaranteed bonds i) Long term (> year) 9 9 Principal ii) Short term (< year),599, Interest Total Long term external debt b)non-resident deposits (LCY & FCY), servicing ( ) 4,7 4,64 4. Private sector,48 2, Principal,76,499 a)guaranteed debt Interest,26,42 b)non-guaranteed debt,48 2, Memorandum Items Short term debt servicing-principal 4 i)loans 2,25,945 8 (excluding item No. below) ii)private non-guaranteed bonds 2 2. Government debt iii)trade credit and others liabilities,, PSEs non-guaranteed debt Debt liabilities to direct investors-intercompany debt 2,857 2, Scheduled banks' borrowing 5,427 6,798 Total external debt (excl. FEL) 69,46 6,42 8,2 Net flows Items FY6 P FY5 Total external debt & liabilities ( ) 7,6 65,4 7, Private non-guaranteed debt 4 69 Indicators of External Debt Sustainability End period debt stock as of External debt servicing 6 as of Jun- Jun-2 Jun- Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 P FY FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 P GDP Reserves Exports Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$) Debt Foreign exchange liabilities Jun- Jun-2 Jun- Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6P Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP External Debt Servicing (billion US$)* PSEs debt** Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt FY FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6P *Only Long term debt servicing included. **PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt. Scheduled banks' debt servicing captured from Jul-Sep 9 onwards. Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP R: Revised; P: Provisional ; External debt data format has been changed, as SBP enhances coverage & quality of external debt statistics by adopting Special Data Dissemination Standard, for more details visit 2 Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL; Only long term debt servicing included. 4 As per the guidelines available in IMF's External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term repayment of principle has been reported as Memorandum Items; 5 Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (-) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period. 6 Only long term debt servicing included from FY and onwards. Sources: Economic Affairs Division and SBP(S&DWH) Fiscal Accounts and Debt 4

17 Total Debt Total Debt Stock () Jun-6 P Jun-5 Jun-4 Jun- Jun-2 Change during Jul-Jun FY6 Share in Jun- FY6 () I. Government domestic debt,626 2,9,97 9,52 7,68,4 6.7 II. Government external debt 5,48 4,77 4,786 4,6 4, III. Debt from IMF IV. External liabilities V. Private sector external debt VI. PSEs external debt VII. PSEs domestic debt VIII. Commodity operations IX. Intercompany External Debt from Direct Investor abroad Total debt & liabilities (I to IX) 22,462 9,846 8,24 6,8 4,55 2,65. Total Public Debt (I to III) FRDLA Definition 9,677 7,8 5,99 4,292 2,697 2, Total external debt & liabilities (II to VI &+ IX) 7,645 6,6 6,449 6,6 6,96,5 4. Commodity operations & PSEs debt (VI to VIII),479,276, Total Debt Servicing () FY6 P FY5 FY4 FY FY2 Share in FY6 () Share in FY5 () Total Debt Servicing(A+B) A. Total interest payment on debt and liabilities (I+II) I. Interest payment on debt (a+b) a. Domestic debt b. External debt II. Interest payment on liabilities (a+b) a. Domestic liabilities b. External liabilities B. Principal repayment of external debt and liabilities Debt stock (as of GDP) Jun-6 P Jun-5 Jun-4 Jun- Jun-2 Total debt and liabilities Total Public Debt-FRDLA Definition Total external debt and liabilities Government domestic debt PSEs debt and liabilities Debt Servicing (as of) FY6 P FY5 FY4 FY FY2 GDP Total revenue Tax revenue Total expenditure Current expenditure Debt Stock () Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt Total debt & liabilities Total public debt Jun- Jun-2 Jun- Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 P Debt Stock (as of GDP) Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt Total debt & liabilities Total public debt Jun- Jun-2 Jun- Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 P Note: R: Revised; P: Provisional; Rupee value of external debt and liabilities computed by applying the corresponding end period average exchange rate to the end-period stock; 2 This includes borrowings from banks by provincial and Federal governments agencies for commodity operations; Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 25 (FRDLA) was amended in June 26 to define "Total Public Debt" as "The debt of the government serviced out of consolidated fund and debts owed to International Monetary fund (IMF). 4 This is excluding short term debt repayment. Source: CDNS, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs Division and SBP Fiscal Accounts and Debt 5

18 Monetary Assets of the Banking System Latest week -Nov-6 A year ago -Nov-5 () NFA, NDA, ,49.2 Net government borrowings: of which 7, Net budgetary borrowing 7, Commodity operations Non-government borrowings: of which 5, Private sector 4, PSEs Other items (net) -, M2 2, ,542.6 Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System () Currency in circulation, Total deposits with banks 9, Demand deposits with banks 8, Time deposits with banks RFCDs with banks M2 2, ,542.6 Monetary Assets of the Banking System -Nov-6 -Nov-5 ( growth) NFA NDA Government borrowings Budgetary borrowing Commodity operations Non-government sector borrowings Private sector PSEs Other items (Net) M Memorandum Items Monetary and Credit Aggregates End June 26 stocks P YoY (-Nov-6) Cumulative flows since end-june Latest week Since end June -Nov-6 A year ago -Nov-5 FY6 flows Money multiplier.2..2 Currency to deposit ratio () M2 to GDP ratio () Private sector credit to GDP ratio () R ; Revised (All weekly numbers are provisional); Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP FY6 FY6,4,2, Monetary Assets (M2) - Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY Weeks Net Foreign Assets - Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY FY6 Weeks Net Domestic Assets(NDA) - Cumulative Flows since end June FY Weeks Private Sector Credit - Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY Weeks Monetary Sector 6

19 Monetary Assets of SBP End June 26 stocks Cumulative flows since end-june Latest week A year ago -Nov-6 -Nov-5 () NFA, NDA: of which 2, Budgetary borrowing, Other items (net), ,.6 Net impact of OMOs/discounting, Latest week -Nov-6 A year ago -Nov-5 FY6 Flows Reserve money, Monetary Liabilities of SBP () Cumulative flows since end-june End June 26 stocks FY6 Flows Currency in circulation, Cash in tills Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) Other deposits with SBP YoY (-Nov-6) ( growth) NFA of the SBP NDA of the SBP: of which Budgetary borrowing Reserve money Reserve Money - Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY Weeks Banking System Deposits -Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY Weeks Currency in Circulation - Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY Weeks Details on Government Borrowing for Budgetary Support Latest week -Nov-6 A year ago -Nov-5 () Budgetary borrowing 7, Federal government 8, From SBP, SBP's holdings of MRTBs 2, From scheduled banks (SBs) 6, ,64.9 Provincial governments From SBP From scheduled banks Memorandum Items End June 26 stocks Cumulative flows since end-june Budgetary borrowing on cash basis 7, SBP, Scheduled banks 5, ,262. Current overdraft ceilings for provinces are: Rs7.2 billion for Punjab; Rs5 billion for Sindh; Rs. billion for KPK; Rs7. billion for Baluchistan, Rs4.5 billion for AJK. FY6 flows 2 The end-june 26 net stock of borrowings was negative as provincial governments' deposits with scheduled banks exceeded their borrowings. Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP Budgetary Borrowings - Cumulative Flows since end June FY6 FY Weeks Cumulative Budgetary Borrowings during FY7 SBs SBP Total budgetary borrowing Weeks Monetary Sector 7

20 Private Sector Credit Credit to Private Sector Jul-Oct FY7 Jul-Oct FY6 Total credit to private sector 4, Loans to private sector businesses, By type FY6 Working capital: of which 2, Export finance Import finance Fixed investment, By Sectors: of which Cumulative flows () Agriculture Manufacturing: of which, Textiles Food producus & beverages Chemicals & products Non-metallic mineral products Wearing apparel, readymade gar Electricity, gas and water Construction Commerce and trade Transport, storage and comm Services: of which Real estate/renting & business acu Personal: of which Consumer financing Investment in securities and shares Others 2 : of which Non-bank finance companies From Weekly Monetary Survey's month end position. End June 26 stocks 2 This also includes credit to some Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP. Loans to Private Sector Businesses (Monthly Flows) FY5 FY6 FY Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows) FY5 FY6 FY7 Mar Apr Apr Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows) FY5 FY6 FY Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Credit to NBFIs (Monthly Flows) FY5 FY6 FY7 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Monetary Sector 8

21 Key Indicators of Monetary Secuor As of GDP YoY growth (RHS) 5. Money Supply (M2) Reserve Money FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 as % of. GDP FY7 FY8 FY9 FY FY FY2 YoY Growth FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System Private Sector Credit FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth Currency in Circulation Total Deposits FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY2 FY FY4 FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth YoY growth of end June Stocks Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Monetary Sector 9

22 Trends in Monetary Aggregates YoY Growth 2 MMA Money Supply Oct Dec- Feb-4 Feb-2 Apr-4 June-4 Mar-2 Aug-4 Apr-2 Oct-4 Dec-4 May-2 Feb-5 Jun-2 Apr-5 June-5 Jul-2 Aug-5 Aug-2 Oct-5 Dec-5 Sep-2 Feb-6 Oct-2 Apr-6 June-6 Nov-2 Aug-6 Oct-6 Reserve Money Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 June-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 June-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 June-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 June-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 June-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 June-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Credit to Private Sector Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 June-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 June-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 June-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Currency in Circulation Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 June-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 June-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 June-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Total Deposits Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 June-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 June-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 June-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 NDA to NFA Ratio Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 June-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 June-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 June-6 Aug-6 Oct Trend in Currency to Deposit Ratio and Money Multiplier Currency to deposit ratio (%) Money multiplier (RHS) Oct- Dec- Feb-4 Apr-4 Jun-4 Aug-4 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct Month end stocks data has been used. YoY growth shows growth over same month last year. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Monetary Sector 2

23 Money Market Policy Instruments () Current w.e.f Previous w.e.f Change SBP Target rate (Policy) * May Sep-5-25 SBP reverse repo rate May Sep-5-25 SBP repo rate May Sep-5-25 Bi-weekly average CRR on DL and TL < year 5. -Nov Oct-8 - Daily minimum CRR on DL and TL < year. 2-Oct Nov-8 - CRR on TL > year. 4-Aug Jul-6 - SLR on DL and TL < year May Jul-6 Islamic banks 9. -Jun- 4. -Apr- 5 SLR on TL > year. 8-Oct May Policy and Overnight Money Market Repo Rates SBP reverse repo rate SBP repo rate Weekly WA overnight repo rate SBP Target rate (Policy) Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Islamic banks. 8-Oct May-8-9 Basis points DL: Demand Liabilities; TL: Time Liabilities * Vide DMMD circular No. 9 dated May 2, 25 Weighted Average O/N Money Market Repo Rate () FY6 FY7 Q4 Year Q Q2 * Year WA O/N repo rate Standard deviation CoV * up to November 24, 26 YTD: Year to date 2 Weekly Weighted Average O/N Repo Rate CoV (Coefficient of Variation) is a ratio and is unit free. coefficient of variation * up to November 24, 26. Volatility in Overnight Money Market Repo Rate Q Q2 Q Q4 Q Q2 Q Q4 Q Q2* FY5 FY6 FY7 Bi-weekly Cash Reserves Requirement (CRR) 4 () Maintenance period Change since ended as on Last MPS -Nov-6 6-Oct-6 6-Oct-6 22-Sep-6 5 Cash required Cash maintained Excess cash reserves (per day) Bi-weekly CRR is the proportion of local currency time and demand liabilities (TDL) that scheduled banks are required to maintain with SBP in the form of cash on average during the reserve maintenance period. 5 As on Thursday preceding the last monetary policy decision Cash Reserves Requirement Amount as % of DL (RHS) Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct in Overall Reserve Requirement () Maintenance period started as on 2-Oct-6 2-Sep-6 Required reserves for CRR for SLR Maintained Cash Cash in tills Balance with SBP Balance with NBP Securities Others Excess liquid assets Source: Off-site Supervision and Enforcement Department, SBP Change since Last MPS 2-Sep Banks' Holding of Excess Liquid Assets Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 *up to November 2, 26 6 Data corresponds to the balances as on that date 7 Includes Section () deposits and share capital of MFBs. 8 Includes excess securities + cash and other assets maintained. 9 As on Friday preceding the last monetary policy decision Financial Markets 2

24 Use of SBP's Standing Facilities SBP reverse repo SBP repo Amount Days Amount Days No. No. FY5 2, Q Q2, Q Q FY6 2, Q Q Q Q FY Q Q Nov-5 Dec-5 * up to November 2, 26 SBP Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Jan-6 Repo Feb-6 Mar-6 Reverse repo Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Updated up to November 2, 26 FY Q 6.. Q Q Q FY6, Q, Q2, Q,2.8,. Q4, FY7, Q,94.,47. Q It does not include the impact of outright transactions. Outstanding Open Market Operations 2 (billion rupees) Average Outstanding OMOs Updated up to November 2, 26 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP End-period Outstanding OMOs *Note: (+) amount means net injection (-) amount means net mop-up 2,5 2,,5, 5 Nov-5 Outstanding Open Market Operations* Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 * updated up to November 2, Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 (-) net mop-ups Mar-6 Mar-6 * black dots represent outright mop-up rates # up to November 2, 26 (+) net injections Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 OMO Mop-up and Injection Rates* # Mop-up rate Injection rate Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Nov-6 Outright Open Market Operations (billion rupees) Open Market Operations for GoP Ijara Sukuk - Outright 5 (billion rupees) Net Sale Bai-Muajjal End-period Outstanding Purchases Ready Sales FY FY Q Q - - Q Q Q - - Q Q Q4 - - FY6 - - FY Q - - Q - - Q2 - - Q2 - - Q - - Q Q4 - - Q4 - - FY FY Q - - Q - - Q Q Updated up to November 2, 26 5 As per DMMD Circular No. 7 of 24 dated October 5, Updated up to November 2, 26 Financial Markets 22

25 Tenors Current Pak Rupee Revaluation (PKRV) Rates (%) Change (in basis points) since Last MPS 2-Nov-6 24-Oct-6 24-Oct-6 2-Sep-6 -week week month month month month month year year year year year year year It is secondary market yield-to-maturity used by banks to revalue their holding of securities (i.e. mark to market). 2-Nov-6 Yield Curve 2-Sep-6 7D 5D M 2M M 4M 6M 9M 2M 2Y Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y Y 5Y 2Y Y Tenors Current Tenor-wise KIBOR (%) Change (in basis points) since Last MPS 2-Nov-6 24-Oct-6 24-Oct-6 2-Sep-6 -week week month month month month month year year Daily Movement in KIBOR -M 6-M 2-M Policy Rate Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 * up to November 2, 26 Nov-6 KIBOR and PKRV Spread (basis points) Change since Current Tenors Last MPS 2-Nov-6 24-Oct-6 24-Oct-6 2-Sep-6 -week week month month month month month year year Sources: SBP and Financial Market Association of Pakistan KIBOR and PKRV Spread Spread (RHS) 6-M KIBOR 6-M PKRV Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 * up to November 2, 26 Nov bps -5 - Financial Markets 2

26 Months Weighted average Lending and Deposit Rates ( per annum) WALR Incremental WADR Outstanding Spread (bps) WALR WADR Spread (bps) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Weighted average rates on incremental (fresh) loans and deposits (including interbank and zero markup) during a month Oct-4 Banks' WALR and WADR (Incremental) Spread (RHS) Lending Deposit Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct age points Months Real (based on 2-month MA inflation) 2 Real (based on YoY inflation) WALR WADR WALR WADR Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Sources: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP & Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Real Lending and Deposit Rates (Incremental) WALR WADR Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 * Using YoY CPI Inflation. 2 Nominal rate less CPI inflation (2-month moving average). Nominal rate less CPI inflation (year on year). Financial Markets 24

27 Using YoY CPI inflation Real Interest Rates Using 2-month moving average CPI inflation SBP Policy Rate SBP Policy Rate 6. Headline Core (2% Trim) 6. Headline Core (2% Trim) Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 6-M KIBOR Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Weighted Average Lending Rates (Incremental) Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 6-M KIBOR Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Weighted Average Lending Rates (Incremental) Oct-4 Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct Oct-4 Weighted Average Deposit Rates (Incremental) ######### Dec-4 Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct Oct-4 Dec-4 Weighted Average Deposit Rates (Incremental) Feb-5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 Jun-6 Aug-6 Oct-6 Weighted average lending and deposit rates excluding transactions in the interbank and on zero markup. Sources: PBS and Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP Financial Markets 25

28 FY/Q/ Settlement T-bill Auction ( (Realized value); rates in ) TOTAL -Month 6-Month 2-Month Target Maturity Offered Accepted 2 Offered Accepted 2 Cut-off Offered Accepted 2 Cut-off Offered Accepted 2 Cut-off FY5,745.,5. 6,67.,244.2,525.6,68. -,977.,7. - 2,664., Q Q2, Q , , Q4 875.,26.6 2, FY6 5,. 4, ,66.7 4,47. 2,54., ,69.9, ,4.6, Q, ,28.5, Q2,225.,46.4, Q,65., ,98., , Q4, , FY7 2,4. 2,28.6 4,5.9 2,59.9, , Q,45.,78. 2,967.4, , Q , Up till November 24, 26 2 The amount does not include the non-competitive bids. 4 These amounts are raised from non-bank institutions and/or individuals at auctions weighted average rate. Quarterly rate are for end-period. Noncompetitive T-Bill Auctions (accepted amount) -M 6-M 2-M Total 26-Nov-5 -Dec-5 24-Dec-5 7-Jan-6 2-Jan-6 4-Feb-6 8-Feb-6 -Mar-6 7-Mar-6 -Mar-6 4-Apr-6 28-Apr-6 2-May-6 26-May-6 9-Jun-6 2-Jun-6 7-Jul-6 2-Jul-6 4-Aug-6 8-Aug-6 -Sep-6 5-Sep-6 29-Sep-6 -Oct-6 27-Oct-6 -Nov-6 24-Nov Nov-5 Dec-5 T-Bill Cut-off rate -M 6-M 2-M Policy rate Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 PIB Auction ( (Face value); rates in ) 5 -Year 5-Year 7-Year -Year 5-Year 2-Year -Year Total Target Cut-off rate FY6 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q2 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q4 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate FY7 7 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q2 7 Offered Accepted "-": Either no bid received or bids were rejected. 5 Excluding non-competitive bids and short-selling accommodation 6 Quarterly rate are for end-period. 7 Up till November 2, 26 -year Variable Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (; margin in bps) -year Fixed Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs) Target Total offered Total accepted Cut-off margin 8 Target Total offered Total Cut-off fixed accepted rental rate FY FY Q Q Q (5) Q Q FY Q Q FY Q Q DMMD Circular No. 2 of 26 dated February, 26 Q Fixed rental rate will be applicable to entire bids, and for the entire tenor of fixed 8 This cut-off margin, with the benchmark of 6-Month MTB Auction Weighted Average Yield, is applicable rental rate ; 2 Up till November 2, 26 to all accepted bids ; 9 Up till November 2, 26 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP Financial Markets 26

29 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Foreign Exchange Market November 26 PKR against international currencies Latest 2-Nov-6 Last MPS 2-Sep-6 Jun-6 % App / (Dep) of PKR Jul-Nov 4 FY7 FY Daily Movement of PKR against USD (Rs/USD) USD (.) (.5) Euro Sterling JPY (2.66) USD Kerb (2.) (.8) Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Updated till November 2, 26 Premium (Rs) Daily NEER Source: SBP International exchange rates 2 % App / (Dep) of USD Latest Last MPS Jul-Nov 4 Jun-6 2-Nov-6 2-Sep-6 FY7 FY6 USD/EUR Daily Movement of USD against Major Currencies USD/Euro USD/GBP Yen/USD (rhs) Nov-4 Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov USD/GBP JPY/USD INR/USD Updated till November 2, 26 PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Quarterly Basis High Low Close Average Volatility C/C CNY/USD Q4-FY THB/USD Q-FY MYR/USD Q2-FY SGD/USD Q-FY The exchange rates are shown as per country practices Q4-FY PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Fiscal Year Basis High Low Close Average Q-FY Q2-FY Volatility C/C Q-FY FY Q4-FY FY Q-FY FY Q2-FY FY Q-FY FY Q4-FY FY Q-FY FY Q2-FY Reuters: Average Close-to-Close Daily Volatility (in %) 4 Updated upto November 2, 26 Financial Markets 27

30 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) Base Year: CY2 November 26 NEER Index Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun R Sep p Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun R Sep p RPI 24 Changes in Relative price Index (RPI) Base Year: CY2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun R Sep p Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun R Sep p Changes in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Base Year: CY2 REER Index Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun R Sep p 26 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun R P: Provisional Source: SBP Sep p Financial Markets 28

31 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Capital Market November 26 Performance of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Percentage change during Nov-6 Oct-6 FY-6 FY-5 November FY7 2 FY6 FY5 End-period KSE TM - index 42,9 9,894 7,784 4, End-period KSE TM - index 22,2 2,85 2,65 2, Market capitalization () 8,562 8,6 7,58 7, Ready volume (million shares) SCRA flows (US$ million) Upto November 2, 26 2 Reflects growth since end of the previous month Average during the period 4 Cumulative net flow during the period upto November 2, 26 million shares KSE - Index and Ready Volume Volume of Shares KSE- index (rhs) Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 46, 4, 9,9 6,8,7,6 27,5 24,4 2, 8,2 5, 2, Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market (as of market capitalization) Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Source: JS Research, PSX Updated upto November 2, 26 Sources: PSX and S&DWD, SBP million US$ Special Convertibility Rupee Account (SCRA) Net Flows SCRA KSE- index (rhs) Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Source: S&DWD, SBP Updated upto November 2, 26 46, 4, 9,9 6,8,7,6 27,5 24,4 2, 8,2 5, 2, as of total expenses Financial Expenses of Corporate Sector Source: PSX and S&DWD, SBP CY CY CY2 CY CY4R CY5P Sources: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and JR Research. Financial Markets 29