Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update
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1 Volume 12/2017 December 2017 Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update Monetary Policy Department BANGLADESH BANK
2 Contents Page No. Executive summary Monetary and credit developments 3 2. Reserve money developments 4 3. CPI and inflation 5 4. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks 6 5. Financial sector prices a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds 7 b) Interest rate spread 8 6. Capital market developments 9 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans 11 b) Outstanding position of SME loans Industrial production a)quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry 12 b)quantum index of small scale manufacturing industry Exports a) Annual exports 13 b) Monthly exports 13 c) Category-wise breakdown of exports Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening 15 b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding LCs 16 c) Projected data on opening of import LCs & probable liabilities against BTB LCs Workers remittances Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and Commercial Banks Foreign aid Exchange rate movements Balance of payments Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections 21 b) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) 22 c) Budget financing Food situations 23 Appendix Comments and suggestions may be sent to: monjurul.haque@bb.org.bd mnurul.islam@bb.org.bd sadia.sultana@bb.org.bd nabila.fahria@bb.org.bd 0
3 Executive Summary 1. Movement of monetary indicators Broad money(m2) growth continued to slow down and private sector credit growth increased sharply in October Broad money (M2) increased by percent (y-o-y) in October 2017 which was lower than percent of the same month of the previous year. Net foreign assets and net domestic assets registered 6.41 percent and percent growth respectively in October Private sector credit recorded percent growth in October 2017 which was higher than percent of the same month of the previous year. 2. Inflation scenario Point to point inflation decreased but 12-month average inflation increased in October The point-to-point inflation decreased to 6.04 percent in October 2017 from 6.12 percent in September While the twelve-month average inflation increased to 5.59 percent in October 2017 from 5.55 percent in September State of the financial sector Weighted average interest rate spread of all banks narrowed marginally in October 2017 but call money rate increased up to December 26, 2017 The spread between the weighted average interest rates on advances and deposits of all banks narrowed in October 2017 from that of September 2017 and stood at 4.50 percent. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market increased to 3.90 percent up to December 26, 2017 as compared to 3.82 percent in November, External sector performance Export records a slow growth during July- November, Merchandise commodity export increased to USD billion during July-November, which was 6.86 percent higher than USD billion during July-November, , according to EPB data. Import growth increased during July-October, Custom based import during July-October, increased by percent and stood at USD billion compared to USD billion during July-October, Fresh opening of import LCs during July-October, increased by percent as compared to that of July-October, and stood at USD billion. From the sectoral distribution of LCs opening during the mentioned period, it is revealed that LCs opening for the industrial raw materials is the highest at percent of total LCs opening followed by consumer goods at percent. 1
4 External sector performance (contd.) Workers remittances inflow increased in November 2017 Current account balance continued to a deficit during July-October, Both total and net reciepts of foreign aid increased significantly during July- October Forex reserves stood at billion as on December 26, 2017 Receipts of workers remittances in November 2017 increased by 4.47 percent and stood at USD 1.21 billion against that of October It was also higher by percent against USD 0.95 billion of November Total receipts of workers remittances increased by USD 0.56 billion or percent during July-November, as compared to that of July- November, Current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 3.31 billion during July-October, due mainly to a significant trade deficit and lower income from services and primary income accounts compared to that of July-October, The total foreign aid disbursements during July-October, increased by USD 0.69 billion or percent and stood at USD 1.46 billion as compared to that of July-October, Net receipt of foreign aid also increased by USD 0.62 billion and stood at USD 1.09 billion during July-October, as compared to that of July-October, The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.68 billion) as of end November 2017, as compared to USD billion (with ACU liability of USD 1.13 billion) as of end October As per the latest available data, gross foreign exchange reserves stood at USD billion (with ACU liability of USD 1.31 billion) as on December 26, NBR tax revenue collection continued to a strong growth during July- October, Agricultural credit, SME loan, and the general index of industrial production and industrial term loans have increased during the period under review. 5. Developments in the fiscal sector NBR Tax Revenue collection stood at Taka crore during July-October, which was percent higher than Taka crore during July-October, Credit disbursement and industrial production The disbursement of agricultural credit increased by percent while the disbursement of non-farm rural credit decreased by percent during July-November, as compared to July-November, Outstanding SME loans provided by banks and non-bank financial institutions at the end of June 2017 increased by percent compared to the same month of the previous year. Disbursement of industrial term loans during the first quarter of FY18 increased by percent and stood at Taka crore and recovery also increased by percent as compared to the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at in July, 2017 recording an increase of percent from the index of in July, Note: The information furnished in this executive summary and the subsequent pages are provisional and subject to revision. 2
5 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Percentage Percentage 1. Monetary and credit developments Particulars June 2017 R October2017 P Outstanding stock June 2016 over June 2017 June 2016 October 2017 over June 2017 Changes in outstanding stock October 2017 over October 2016 October 2016 over June 2016 (Taka in Crore) October2016 over October A. Net Foreign Assets of the banking system B. Net Domestic Assets of the banking system (+14.40) (-1.32) (+6.41) (+6.08) (+21.62) (+9.68) (+2.76) (+12.27) (+0.39) (+11.19) a) Domestic credit (+11.16) (+3.62) (+13.87) (+1.15) (+12.03) Public sector (-12.02) (-3.84) (-12.13) (-3.72) (-2.60) Government (net) (-14.78) (-5.29) (-16.21) (-3.68) (-2.32) Other Public (+7.66) (+4.35) (+16.95) (-3.95) (-4.51) Private sector (+15.66) (+4.72) (+18.63) (+2.10) (+15.20) b) Other items (net) C. Broad money (A+B) (+10.88) (+1.69) (+10.71) (+1.84) (+13.77) i) Currency outside banks (+12.66) (-7.83) (+12.48) (-7.68) (+20.04) ii) Deposits (+10.61) (+3.18) (+10.47) (+3.30) (+12.96) a) Demand deposits (+13.49) (-2.50) (+17.59) (-5.90) (+20.59) b) Time deposits (+10.24) (+3.93) (+9.65) (+4.48) (+12.14) Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P=provisional, R= Revised. Broad money The broad money (M2) recorded an increase of Taka crore or percent at the end of October 2017 against the increase of Taka crore or percent at the end of October Of the sources of broad money, net domestic assets (NDA) rose by Taka crore or percent and net foreign assets (NFA) rose by Taka crore or 6.41 percent at the end of October 2017 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Domestic credit The domestic credit recorded an increase of Taka crore or percent at the end of October 2017 against the increase of Taka crore or percent at the end of October Credit to the private sector recorded a growth of percent while credit to the public sector decreased by percent in October 2017 as compared to the same month of the previous year Trends of broad money growth (year-on-year) Trends of domestic credit growth (year-on-year)
6 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Percentage 2. Reserve money developments Outstanding stock Changes in outstanding stock (Taka in crore) Particulars June 2017 R October2017 P June 2016 over June 2017 June 2016 * Note :- The change in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) is calculated with the formula : October 2017 over June 2017 October 2017 over October 2016 October 2016 over June 2016 October2016 over October Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank (+15.13) (-0.15) (+7.45) (+6.98) (+22.20) Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank* (-6.48) (-51.13) (+13.00) (-84.96) (-71.98) Claims on Govt.(net) Claims on other public (+7.06) (-0.13) (+8.35) (-1.32) (-6.35) Claims on DMBs (-16.10) (+10.13) (+6.83) (-13.51) (-13.81) Other items (net) Reserve money (+16.28) (-6.40) (+12.66) (-3.39) (+13.81) Currency Issued (+14.33) (-8.06) (+12.69) (-6.72) (+20.44) i) Currency outside banks (+12.66) (-7.83) (+12.48) (-7.68) (+20.04) ii) Cash in tills (+34.24) (-10.36) (+14.95) (+4.68) (+24.85) Deposits held with BB (+20.52) (-2.99) (+12.60) (+3.84) (+2.76) Of which: Excess reserves Money multiplier Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P=provisional, R= Revised. Reserve Money Reserve money recorded an increase of Taka crore or percent at the end of October 2017 against the increase of Taka crore or percent at the end of October Of the sources of reserve money, Bangladesh Bank s net foreign assets increased Trends of reserve money growth (year-on-year) by Taka crore or 7.45 percent and net domestic assets increased by Taka crore or percent at the end of October 2017 as compared to October Money multiplier stood at 4.91 in October 2017 which 10.5 was 4.52 in June
7 Oct.16 Nov.16 Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May 17 Jun.17 Jul.17 Aug.17 Sep.17 Oct.17 Percentage 3. CPI and Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Rate of Inflation at National Level (Base : FY =100) Twelve-Month Average Basis Point to Point Basis General Food Non-food General Food Non-food Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. The twelve month average general inflation edged up marginally to 5.59 percent in October 2017 from 5.55 percent of September, The average food inflation increased to 6.89 percent while the average non-food inflation decreased to 3.65 percent in October 2017 from September The point to point general inflation decreased to 6.04 percent in October 2017 from 6.12 percent in September 2017, as food inflation decreased at 7.62 percent. However, non-food inflation stood at 3.61 percent in October 2017 as compared to 3.44 percent of September CPI(Base:FY =100) Inflation 12 month average Point to point 5
8 Sep.16 Oct.16 Nov.16 Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May.17 Jun.17 Jul.17 Aug.17 Sep.17 Billion taka 4. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks Bank Group As of end June, 2017 Total Liquid Assets Cash in tills + balances with Sonali Bank Ltd. As of end September 2017 P Foreign Currency a 4b 5 6=(3+4a+4b+5) 7 CRR * Balances with Bangladesh Bank 1/ Local Currency Excess Reserve (un-invested cash) Unencumbered approved securities Total Liquid Assets (In crore Taka) Minimum Required Liquid Assets 2/ State-owned Banks Specialised Banks Private Banks (Other than Islamic) Islamic Banks Foreign Banks Total (+4.73) (+23.94) (+3.14) (+2.50) (+65.69) Source : Department of Offsite Supervision, BB. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional, R= Revised. *CRR is 6.5% of total demand and time liabilities. 1/ Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency = CRR + Excess Reserve. 2/ Minimum required liquid assets is the sum of CRR and SLR. Comment: The data shown on the above table are based on the regulatiry purpose of Bangladesh Bank. Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks stood at Taka crore as of end September 2017 which was Taka crore at the end of June The minimum required liquid assets of the scheduled banks was Taka crore as of end September Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets as of end September 2017 in the form of cash in tills & balances with Sonali Bank Ltd., CRR, excess reserves, balances with Bangladesh Bank (foreign currency) and un-encumbered approved securities were 4.73 percent, percent, 3.14 percent, 2.50 percent, and percent respectively of total liquid assets. Balances with BB (Foreign Currency), 2.50% Excess Reserve, 3.14% Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets (as of end September 2017) CRR, 23.94% Unencumbered approved securities, 65.69% Cash in tills+balances with SBL, 4.73% Liquid assets & minimum required liquidity Liquid assets Minimum required liquid assets 6
9 Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May17 Jun.17 Jul.17 Aug.17 Sep.17 Oct.17 Nov.17 Dec.17 (Upto 26) Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May.17 Jun.17 Jul.17 Aug.17 Sep.17 Oct.17 Nov.17 Dec.17 W. average rate in percent W.ave. yield in percent 5. Financial sector prices: a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds 1/ : Treasury Bills BGTB 91-Days 182-Days 364-Days 2-Years 5-Years 10-Years 15-Years 20-Years BB Bill 30-Days Repo* Reverse Repo* Call Money Rate July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November Source: MPD and DMD, BB. 1/ Weighted average rate = there was no = upto December 26 th, * The Repo and Reverse Repo rates are re-fixed at 6.75% and 4.75% respectively, with effect from The weighted average yields on 91-Days Treasury Bills increased to 3.38 percent in December, 2017 as compared to 3.06 percent of November, The weighted average yields on 182-Days and 364-Days Treasury Bills stood at 3.86 percent and 4.35 percent in December, The weighted average yields on 2-Years, 5-Years, 10-Years, 15-Years and 20-Years BGTB stood at 5.03 percent, 5.90 percent, 7.17 percent, 7.93 percent and 8.25 percent respectively in December, The weighted average yield on 30-Days BB Bill up to December 21, 2017 remained the same 2.97 percent as compared to that of November, The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market increased to 3.90 percent up to December 26, 2017 as compared to 3.82 percent in November, Repo, Reverse Repo & Call Money Rate Repo* Reverse Repo* Call Money Rate Yield on Treasury Bills 91-Days 182-Days 364-Days u 7
10 Oct. 16 Nov. 16 Dec. 16 Jan. 17 Feb. 17 Mar. 17 Apr. 17 May 17 Jun. 17 Jul. 17 Aug,17 Sep.17 Oct.17 Oct. 16 Nov. 16 Dec. 16 Jan. 17 Feb. 17 Mar. 17 Apr. 17 May 17 Jun. 17 Jul. 17 Aug,17 Sep.17 Oct.17 W. Ave. rate in percent W. Ave. rate in percent b) Interest rate spread: All Banks Sector-wise break down of interest rate spread in the banks SME All other sectors (excluding SME) Agriculture Large Industries Services Non-Bank FIs Interest rate on deposits Interest rate on advances Spread Interest rate on advances Spread Interest rate on advances Spread Interest rate on Spread advances Interest rate on advances Spread Interest rate on advances Spread Interest rate on deposits Interest rate on advances Spread July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks and NBFIs narrowed at the end of October 2017 as compared to September 2017 and stood at 4.50 and 3.02 percent respectively. The weighted average interest rate on deposits of all banks decreased marginally while the weighted average deposit rate of all NBFIs increased and stood at 4.89 percent & 8.33 percent respectively at the end of October 2017 as compared to that of September Institution wise breakdown of interest rate spread Banks NBFIs Sector-wise breakdown of interest rate spread SME Agriculture Large Industries Services 8
11 Nov.16 Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May17 June17 July17 Aug.17 Sep.17 Oct.17 Nov Capital market developments: Calender Enlisted issues (Incl. Mutual (Taka in crore ) General Index / Issued Capital Market Turnover during DSE Year Funds/Deb.) and Debentures Capitalisation the Year Broad Index End Month Issued Capital and Debentures Market Capitalisation Turnover during the month Janaury' February' March' April' May' June' July' August' September' October' November' Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange Annual capital market developments in DSE Monthly capital market developments in DSE Enlisted issues (Taka in crore) (Incl. Mutual Funds/Deb.) DSE Broad Index (DSEX) The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of November 2017 stood higher at compared to that of end October The total market capitalization of all shares and debentures of the listed securities at the end of November 2017 stood higher at Taka crore from Taka crore at the end of October Trends in market capitalisation and indices of DSE Capitalisation in billion taka (LHS) DSEX (RHS)
12 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. In crore taka In crore taka 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit a. Agricultural credit (Taka in crore) b. Non-farm rural credit (Taka in crore) Month P R P R Month Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery July July August August September September October October November November July-November July-November (+11.42) (+16.95) (+40.56) (+31.10) (-18.82) (+15.60) (+7.40) (-7.37) Programmed level for disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit was Tk crore for FY Agricultural credit disbursement Non-farm rural credit disbursement Disbursement of agricultural credit increased by percent while that of non-farm rural credit decreased by percent during July-November, compared to that of July-November, The banks disbursed a total of Taka billion to both the sectors during July-November, The recovery of the agriculture credit and non-farm rural credit increased by percent and percent respectively during July-November, as compared to that of July-November, Overdue and outstanding credit in agricultural sector End Month November Source: Agricultural Credit Department. (Taka in crore) P R Overdue Outstanding Overdue as % Overdue as % Overdue Outstanding of outstanding of outstanding (+4.21) (+12.20) (-6.86) (+9.57) The position of overdue agricultural credit as percentage of total outstanding credit has decreased from percent at the end of November 2016 to percent at the end of November
13 Quarterly Yearly 8. Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans Period Disbursement (Tk. in crore) LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total FY FY FY July-September October-December January-March April-June July-September End Period (+18.71) (+23.14) (+35.64) (+20.86) (+29.96) (+3.35) (+30.44) (+24.88) Overdue LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total September, September, 2017 Source: SME & Special Programmes Department. FY FY Recovery Outstanding Note:- Figures in brackets indicate overdue as % of outstanding. LSI=Large Scale Industries, MSI=Medium Scale Industries, SSCI= Small Scale & Cottage Industries. The disbursement of total industrial term loans during July-September, increased by percent and stood at Taka crore as compared to Taka crore during July-September, The recovery of industrial term loans also increased by percent and stood at Taka crore during July- September, against Taka crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Outstanding amount of industrial term loans at the end of September, 2017 stood at Taka crore. At the same time the overdue of industrial term loans was crore. b) Outstanding position of SME loans The total SME loans by the banks and nonbank financial institutions increased by Taka crore or percent and stood at Taka crore at the end of June, 2017 as compared to Taka crore at the end of June, The increase of SME loans of different category-wise institution at the end of June, 2017 are 5.82 percent in state-owned banks, percent in private banks, percent in foreign banks and percent in non-bank financial institutions as compared to that of June, While for the specialized banks it decreased by percent. March, 2017 June, 2017 Banks/NBFIs Quarter Ending June, 2016 September, 2016 December, 2016 % changes of SME loans at the end of June, 2017 over June, 2016 (Tk. in crore) Types of State Owned Private Foreign Specialised Non-Bank Total Loans Banks Banks Banks Banks Fin. Ins. Total Loans SME Loans (25.28) (26.00) (7.62) (7.64) (12.96) (23.63) Total Loans SME Loans (24.93) (25.88) (7.90) (4.31) (14.06) (23.53) Total Loans SME Loans (24.04) (26.43) (9.60) (2.72) (14.13) (23.89) Total Loans SME Loans (23.94) (25.63) (8.55) (3.88) (14.40) (23.33) Total Loans SME Loans (24.26) (25.44) (8.51) (3.67) (15.24) (23.27) Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Note:- Figures in brackets indicate SME loans as percentage of total loans SME loans as percentage of total loans stood at percent at the end of June, 2017 as compared to percent of June, The percentage share of SME loans from different categories of banking and financial institutions to total SME loan as of end June, 2017 is shown in the pie chart. Private Banks, 76.58% Institution-wise sharing of SME loans (June, 2017) State Owned Banks, 17.11% Foreign Banks, 1.37% Specialised Banks, 0.47% Non-Bank Financial Institutions, 4.47% 11
14 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Indices Jun/16 Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 Oct/16 Nov/16 Dec/16 Jan/17 Feb/17 Mar/17 Apr/17 May/17 Jun/17 Jul/17 Monthly Indices Industrial production Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry (Base: =100) Major Industry Group Weight Jul'16 Average Index Percentage change P General % Wearing apparel 34.84% Textile 14.07% Food products 10.84% Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical 8.23% Non-metalic mineral products 7.12% Leather and related products 4.40% Chemicals and chemical products 3.67% Basic metals 3.15% Tobacco products 2.92% Fabricated metal products except machinery 2.32% Others* 8.44% Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. *Others means residual items. P = Provisional, RP=Revised Provisional, R=Revised. Index R Jul'17 P FY'16 FY'17 RP July '17 over July '16 FY'17 over FY'16 The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at in July, 2017 and recorded an increase of percent over July Quantum index of medium & large scale manufacturing industries (Base: =100) The indices those recorded increases in July 2017 compared to July 2016 are: leather and related products (169.86%), pharmaceuticals & medicinal chemical (76.72%), non-metallic mineral products (42.81%), Textile (38.90%), chemicals and chemical products (34.20%), food products (31.55%), fabricated metal products except machinery (24.99%), wearing apparel (20.42%) and basic metals (8.29%) On the other hand, the indices for only tobacco products (1.10%) recorded a decreases in July 2017 compared to July Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries (Base: =100) The general index of small scale manufacturing industry during the second quarter (October- December, 2016) of FY17 increased by 0.95 percent and stood at from the index of during the first quarter (July-September, 2016) of FY17, it also increased by 8.77 percent as compared to the same quarter of FY16. FY15 FY16 FY17 12
15 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Percentage (Million USD) 10. Exports A. Annual exports (US$ in million) B. Monthly exports July August September October January February March July-June July August September (+5.99) (+11.22) (+11.69) (+3.39) (+9.77) (+1.72) Month Month P* *R November December April May June (+1.72) (+9.77) October November July-November (+6.86) (+5.81) Export target was set USD million for FY of which export target for July-November, was USD million. Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). R=Revised; P=Provisional. *Revised according to the revised definition (Primary Commodities+Manufactured Commodoties) of commodity exports by EPB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Merchandise Commodity export in November 2017 increased by USD 0.21 billion or 7.53 percent to USD 3.06 billion from USD 2.84 billion in October 2017 according to EPB data. Total merchandise commodity export during July-November increased by USD 0.93 billion or 6.86 percent to USD billion compared to USD billion during July-November It was 0.72 percent higher than the target of billion for the period under report Export growth-cumulative R* Export performance: Value Trends R* Latest available data on category-wise breakdown of exports are shown in the next page. 13
16 C. Category-wise breakdown of exports Particulars In amount (US$ in million ) In percent 1. Raw Jute Jute goods (excl.carpet) Tea Frozen and live fish Leather Woven garments Knitwear Chemical products Agricultural products* Engineering products (including electrical goods) July-November, Others** TOTAL Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Note:- * = Includes vegetables, fruits & tobacco, **Others = residual items. July-November, Changes during July-November, over July-November, Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that during July-November, exports of tea (+40.21%), jute goods (+27.75%), chemical products (+11.02%), knitwear (+10.86%), frozen & live fish (+10.78%), agricultural products (+7.84%), and woven garments (+3.99%) experienced positive growth compared to that of July-November, ; on the other hand, leather (-29.81%), engineering products (-25.36%) and raw jute (-22.46%) experienced negative growth during July-November, compared to that of July-November, Category-wise share of total exports (July-November, ) Category-wise share of total exports (July-November, ) Frozen and live fish, 1.87% Knitwear, 42.88% Jute goods (excl.carpet), 2.64% Others, 13.35% Frozen and live fish, 1.80% Knitwear, 41.33% Jute goods (excl.carpet), 2.21% Others, 14.31% Woven garments, 39.26% Woven garments, 40.35% 14
17 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 11. Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening Month...FY (+8.92) (+0.82) (+14.93) (-7.05) (+16.29) (-2.90) Month R R R July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June (+5.94) (+0.21) (+4.22) (+3.41) (+0.62) (+2.99) Month P R P R P R July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June (+9.00) (+5.94) (+10.47) (+4.22) (+11.05) (+0.62) Month P P P July August September October July-October P = Provisional. R= Revised. Custom based import (c&f) Import LCs settlement Import LCs opening (+28.71) (+7.93) (+6.97) (+14.75) (+30.17) (+14.45) Source: National Board of Revenue (NBR), Foreign Exchange Operations Department of Bangladesh Bank, NA=Not Available. (US$ in million) Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. 2. Customs based c&f data incorporated in MEI since February, 2015 onwards with the approval of competent authority. R = Data has been revised upto June 2017 as per rivision by NBR. Custom based import during July-October, stood higher by USD 4.13 billion or percent and stood at USD billion against USD billion during July- October, Settlement of import LCs during July-October, increased by 6.97 percent and stood at USD billion against USD billion during July-October, % 40% 30% 20% 10% Custom based import growth-cumulative 47.05% 33.97% 28.39% % Fresh opening of import LCs during July-October, increased by percent and stood at USD billion compared to USD billion during July- October, % 15
18 b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs Sector-wise comparative statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-October, and July-October, are shown below: Sectors / Commodities Fresh opening of LCs P July-October, July-October, Settlement of LCs Outstanding LCs at the end period Fresh opening of LCs Settlement of LCs Outstanding LCs at the end period (US$ in million) Percentage changes during July-October, over July-October, Fresh Outstanding Settlement of opening of LCs at the end LCs LCs period A. Consumer goods B. Intermediate goods C. Industrial raw materials D. Capital machinery E. Machinery for misc. inds F. Petroleum & petro.prodts G. Others Total of which back to back Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department, Bangladesh Bank. P=Provisional. The developments of sectoral share in total LCs opening during July-October, and July-October, are showing in the following pie charts. Petroleum & petro.products, 6.17% Others, 15.21% Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-October, ) Consumer goods, 17.75% Intermediate goods, 7.71% Petroleum & petro.products, 5.68% Others, 16.52% Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-October, ) Consumer goods, 13.02% Intermediate goods, 8.27% Machinery for misc. industry, 11.72% Capital machinery, 10.02% Industrial raw materials, 31.42% Machinery for misc. industry, 11.13% Capital machinery, 10.20% Industrial raw materials, 35.17% Sector-wise detailed statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-October, and July-October, are given in Appendix. C) Projected data on opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorised dealer banks Month December'17 January'18 February'18 Opening of import LCs (In million USD) Probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs December'17-February' Source: All authorized dealer banks, compiled by Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Bangladesh Bank. Data on projection of opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs sent by the authorised dealer banks are USD billion and USD 3.89 billion respectively during December'17-February'18. The said liability is percent of foreign exchange reserves as of December, 26,
19 Nov.16 Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May.17 Jun.17 Jul.17 Aug.17 Sep.17 Oct.17 Nov.17 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Monthly Remittances Percentage 12. Workers remittances Annual and monthly trends of remittances (USD in million) Annual Remittances R (+7.65) (-2.52) (-14.48) Month P R Cummulative growth of workers' remittance inflow July August September October November July-November (+10.76) (-15.65) Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year P=Provisional; R = Revised. Receipt of workers remittances in November 2017 increased by 4.47 percent and stood at USD 1.21 billion against that of October It was also higher by percent against USD 0.95 billion of November Total receipts of workers remittances increased by USD 0.56 billion or percent during July-November, as compared to that of July-November, Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and Commercial Banks (a) Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank(BB): The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.68 billion) as of end November 2017, as compared to USD billion (with ACU liability of USD 1.13 billion) as of end October, The foreign exchange reserves (less ACU liability) is equivalent to import liability of 7.50 months; according the average of the previous 12 months (November, October, 2017) this import liability is of USD 4.26 billion per month on an average. (b) Gross foreign exchange balances held by Commercial Banks(CBs): The gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks stood at USD 2.83 billion as of end November 2017 which was lower than USD 2.90 billion of end October It was also lower than the balance of USD 2.95 billion at the end November A. Outstanding stock at the end of the year B. Outstanding stock at the end of the month (US$ in million) (+40.44) (+16.35) (+20.55) Month / Year R July August September October November December January February March April May June Month / Year P R July August September October November Source : Accounts & Budgeting Department, Bangladesh Bank FX reserves held by BB Gross FX reserves in billion USD (LHS) Reserve covers months of import (RHS) FX reserve held by CBs in billion USD
20 14. Foreign aid Month Month (US$ in million) Food Project Total Payment Net Food Project Total Payment Net Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June Month FY R (-37.76) (+2.74) (+2.36) (+3.15) (+2.10) (-14.95) (+11.53) (+11.21) (-4.17) (+17.54) FY P July August September October July-October (-14.69) (+90.03) (+88.89) (+22.20) ( ) (+30.65) (+4.06) (+4.29) (-2.61) (+9.18) Source : Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance, P=Provisional; R = Revised FY FY R Total foreign aid disbursements during July-October, increased significantly by USD 0.69 billion or percent compared to July-October, and stood at USD 1.46 billion. After principle repayment of USD 0.37 billion, the net receipt of foreign aid stood at USD 1.09 billion during July-October, as compared to USD 0.47 billion of the same period of the previous year Foreign Aid in million USD Total Aid Net Aid July-October, July-October,
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