Bangladesh: Selected Indicators

Transcription

1 Bangladesh Economic and Financial Indicators, April Bangladesh: Selected Indicators Bangladesh economy maintained an average annual growth rate of six percent plus over the last decade, with 7.% outturn in.% population growth rate in 99 declined to.% in, with population reaching million Trend of Real GDP Growth and GDP per capita / FY9- (y/y, in percentage points) GDP per capit (current US$) GDP growth (annual %, RHS) Linear (GDP growth (annual %, RHS) ) Trend of Demographic Indicators 99- Population ages and above (% of total) Population ages - (% of total) Population ages - (% of total) Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) Population growth rate (%, RHS) FY9 FY9 FY9 FY97 FY99 FY FY FY FY7 FY Income poverty incidence (national measure-upper poverty line) came down from 7% in 99 to % in Trend of Poverty Reduction and Gini Index, / 99- ILO estimates.% of population aged + are in labor force in 7; the female participation rate is only.% Trend of Labor Force Participation / 99-7 Poverty headcount ratio at $. a day ( PPP) (% of population) Poverty headcount ratio at $.9 a day ( PPP) (% of population) Poverty headcount ratio at national upper poverty lines (% of population) GINI index (World Bank estimate, RHS) Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages +) (national estimate) Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages +) (national estimate) Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages +) (modeled ILO estimate) Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages +) (modeled ILO estimate) / July-Jun period is considered as FY in Bangladesh. In calculating GDP per capita, population data is taken from the WDI. To calculate WDI population data, national population growth rate is used. / In national measure, up to 99 a man having intake of less than, kilo-calories daily was considered as absolute poor (upper poverty line), and one having intake of below, kilo-calories was considered as hard-core poor. Since 99, the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) method has been used. / Gini Index ranges from to, higher value shows higher inequality. Gini index of means perfect equality, while an index of indicates perfect inequality. / National estimates of labor force participation rate for and 7 are respectively of FY and FY7. Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), World Development Indicators (WDI); and IMF staff calculations

2 Bangladesh: Real Sector Developments Private consumption contributed about / rd of GDP growth, while worsening net exports weakened the momentum Consumption-GDP ratio fell from.% in FY to 7.7% in, while during this period investment-gdp ratio edged up from.% to.%. Contributions to Real GDP Growth FY- (y/y, in percentage points) Private Consumption Private Investment Net exports GDP growth Public Consumption Public Investment Statiscal discrepency Selected indicators share in Nominal GDP FY- (in percentage points) Investment Export Import Remittance Consumption (RHS) 7 - FY FY7 FY FY9 FY FY FY7 FY FY9 FY 7 On the production side, service sector contributed.% of 7.% GDP growth in, and industry sector.%. Provisional estimate of 7.% GDP growth in FY accounts for higher contribution from manufacturing led industrial sector. 9 - Sectoral Contributions to Real GDP Growth -FYp (y/y, in percentage points) Agriculture Industry Service Tax less subsidy GDP Growth FYp 9 7 Sectoral Contributions to Real GDP Growth (Contd.) -FYp (y/y, in percentage points) Headline inflation of. percent in Mar is below HFY upper limit percent In Mar y/y inflation of non-food and core items slightly ticked up, while for food items the rate edged down a little Twelve Month Average Inflation Sep -Mar (y/y, in percentage points) Point-to-Point Inflation Sep -Mar (y/y, in percentage points) General Non Food Food Core General Non Food Food Core Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- FYp Tax less subsidy Other services Transport, storage, communication Wholesale and retail trade Other Industry Construction Manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries GDP growth P stands for provisional. Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank; and IMF staff calculations

3 Bangladesh: External Sector Developments In FY BOP deficit stands at USD 97 million, driven by current account (CA) deficit of USD. billion. 9.% of CA deficit is met by financial and capital account surplus - - Balance of Payments Components -FY (in billion USD, unless otherwise mentioned) / Exports to Europe, destination for.% of exports, contributed about.9% of total.% exports growth during Jul-Mar of FY Destination of Goods Exports -FY Mar) (country/regional share, billion USD) Since early 7 FX reserves have been hovering around USD billion, currently covering months of imports Current account balance Financial account balance Overall balance Other Countries France UK International Reserves Jun -Feb / Capital account balance Errors and omissions (In billions of USD, unless otherwise indicated) FY Other European Countries Germany USA FY Sep) FY Dec) FY Mar) Gross International Reserves (RHS) Net International Reserves (BB definition, RHS) Reserves (months of imports, valuation adjust.) Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun- Jan- Feb- Intermediate goods account for.99% of USD. billion imports during Jul-Feb of FY, while food and consumer goods account for.%, followed by.% for capital machinery Item-wise Contributions to Import Growth -FY (y/y growth, in percentage points) GCC countries account for.% of USD.7 billion remittance inflows in FY Mar) where KSA accounts for 7.% of total inflows, followed by.% from UAE and about.% from USA Contributions to Workers Remittances - -FY Mar), (y/y percentage change) In Q, BB mopped up Taka. billion from the market through USD transactions, containing depreciation of BGD Taka 9 9 Others Intermediate goods Total FY FY FY FY FY Exchange Rates / Sep -Mar Capital machinery Food and consumer goods FY FY Jan) FY FY Saudi Arabia U.A.E. Oman U.K. U.S.A. Other Countries Total FY Mar) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (-=) Real Effective Exchange Rate (-=) Taka per USD (RHS) Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- 7 / GDP data is annualized using actual GDP for ; FY Jan), FY and FY Mar) GDP data are annualized using actual GDP and IMF staff projected GDP for FY. / Net international reserve (NIR) is gross international reserves (excluding investment on bonds below the grade BBB, Silver Acquisition A/C, deposit with Rupali Bank, Pakistan & deposit with Sonali Bank, UK) minus total liabilities. Total liabilities comprise reserve liabilities in ACU, IMF Trust Fund Account (ECF) and other foreign currency clearing accounts, and deposits of IBRD/IDA, and SDR allocation. / Since Jan, REER is estimated. Sources: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF staff calculations

4 Bangladesh: Fiscal Sector Developments In FY revenue-gdp ratio stands at.9% compared to.% in the same period of Central Government Revenue -FY (In percent of GDP) / Revenue grew by.7% in FY, significantly lower than targeted % for FY Contributions to Total Revenue Generation -FY (y/y, in percentage points) / Other VAT and supplementary duties Customs duties Taxes on income and profits Total revenue - Other VAT and supplementary duties Customs duties Taxes on income and profits Total revenue FY FY Budget execution is.7% of GDP in FY compared to.97% in the same period of, with ADP of.% of GDP compared to.% in the same period of Central Government Expenditure -FY (In percent of GDP) / In FY, NSD tools contributed.% of net financing (Taka. billion), external sources contributed.%, while bank borrowing was negative 7.9% Other expenditure ADP expenditure Pay and allowances Interest payments Subsidies and net lending Total expenditure FY 7.7% growth of spending in FY is significantly lower than targeted % for FY - Contributions to Total Expenditure Growth -FY (y/y, in percentage points) / Other expenditure ADP expenditure Pay and allowances In Feb central government debt in percent of GDP Interest payments increased to.7% from 9.7% in Oct 7 Subsidies and net lending Total expenditure FY Fiscal Balance and Sources of Financing -FY (Percent of net financing, unless otherwise indicated), / Net domestic financing: nonbanks, except NSD Net domestic financing: NSD Net domestic financing: net banks Net external financing Net financing (% of GDP), RHS - - FY Jan) FY Jun- Central Govt. Debt -FY (In percent of GDP) / External debt Total debt Jun- Jun- Jun- Domestic debt Jan- Feb- / GDP data is annualized using actual GDP for ; FY Jan) and FY GDP data are annualized using actual GDP and IMF staff projected GDP for FY. / Net external financing is net MLT data taken from the Balance of Payments; National Savings Directorate (NSD) tools data and other domestic financing data are taken from Bangladesh Bank. / Central govt. debt data are calculated as per note /. Sources: Office of the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance; Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations

5 Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Market Developments Broad money growth in Feb reached 9.7%, below.% target, with about.% contribution from buoyant private sector credit Contributions to Broad Money Growth Jun -Feb (y/y, in percentage points) Other domestic assets Claims on the private sector Net claims on central government Net foreign assets Broad money Upward edging of interest rates indicates tightening liquidity market Lending Rate, Deposit Rate and Call Money Rate Jun -Jan (in percentage points) Deposit Rate Call Money Rate Lending Rate - Jun- Feb- Jun- Jan- As high as.7%, the return from NSD instruments propels excess demand, placing stress on core liquidity in the banking system Postal Savings, NSC and Commercial Banks Rates Jun -Mar (in percentage points) At end Dec 7, state owned banks (SOBs) maintained.% CAR- below regulatory requirement of % Capital Adequacy Ratio Dec-Dec 7 (in percentage points) Postal Savings Rate (-year, interest after maturity) National Savings Certificate (NSC) rate ( months) NSC rate (-year BGD certicates) NSC rate (-year Pensioner certificates, interest after months) Deposit Rate Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun- Jan- Feb- Mar- Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs In 7, the NPL ratio rose to 9.% compared to 9. % in, with rise in case of SOBs from.% to.%, and for private commercial banks (PCBs) from.% to.7% Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio Dec -Dec 7 (in percent of loans) Market capitalization of country s two stock bourses- Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) respectively, amounts to 9.% and.% of GDP in. The -mma DSE turnover has been falling since Sep 7 Dhaka Stock Market Performance Sep -Mar Dhaka Stock Index (-month moving average) Turnover (in billions of Taka, RHS) Price Volatility ( months moving standard deviation, RHS) Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Source: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations