KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS PREFACE

Transcription

1 PREFACE This June issue of the Monthly Statistical Bulletin contains updates on the monetary aggregates for May, and other available macroeconomic data. We thank all those who have contributed to the information contained in this Bulletin. KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Indicators 2002/ / / /06 (p) GDP Growth and Prices (percent change) Real GDP at Market Price (a) (b) Consumer Prices (c) Wholesale Prices (India) (d) Government Budget (in millions of Nu.) (e) Revenue & Grants Of which: Foreign Grants Expenditure and Net Lending Current Balance Overall Balance Interest Rates (end of period) One Year Deposits Lending Rate Balance of Payments (in millions of Nu.) Trade Balance With India Current Account Balance (In percent of GDP) With India (In percent of GDP) Foreign Aid (Concessional Loans net) Of which: India Errors and Omissions Overall Balance (In percent of GDP) External Indicators (end of period) Gross Official Reserves in Millions of USD (In months of merchandise imports) External Debt (percent of GDP) Debt-Service Ratio (f) Memorandum Items: Nominal GDP (in millions of Nu.) Reserve Money, M0 (Nu. million), of which Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Banks' Deposits Money Multiplier (M2/M0) Income Velocity (GDP/M2) a) On a calendar year basis, e.g., the entry under 2000/01 is for b) Source: National Accounts Statistics (October ). - c) Data till 2002/03 refer to the old CPI (average of the first half of the calendar year) of the NSB with the 1979 base year. Since rates of change (year-to-year) for the newly introduced quarterly CPI (Q3, 2003 = 100) are not available prior to the third quarter of 2004, the CPI for 2003/04 is based on NSB's new quarterly CPI and refers to the average for the third quarter of 2004 and 2004/05 refers to second quarter d) Average of first 6 months, Source: Reserve Bank of India. Wholesale Price Index of All Commodities, Base = e) Data for 2003/04 are revised estimates. - f) Debt service payments in percent of exports of goods and services.

2 MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS *) COMMENTARIES In May, the annual growth rate of broad money (M2) increased to 11.9 percent from negative 0.2 percent in April. A significant increase in the growth rate of narrow money (M1) on the component side attributed for this growth of M2. On the counterpart side, domestic credit (DC) experienced a higher growth during the review month. 1. Component side: M1 witnessed a significant growth from 7 percent in April to 46.5 percent in May. Higher growths were recorded in both demand deposits and currency in circulation outside banks, which constitutes M1. In May, the demand deposits and currency in circulation outside banks recorded the growth rates of 51.5 percent against 3.4 percent and 33.9 percent against 19.2 percent, respectively, in April. Annual Growth of M1, M2 & Quasi Money M2 M1 QM Feb Mar Apr May Money Growth (annual change) -5 Feb-07 Mar Apr May M2 M1 QM On the other hand, the growth in quasi-money (QM) continued to decline sharply and has reached negative 12.9 percent in the review month. This decline is due to fall in the growth rate of time deposits from negative 11.8 percent to negative 20.1 percent. On the other hand, the foreign currency deposit, other component of QM grew at percent. Percent Counterpart side: The growth in net foreign assets (NFA), which is the major counterpart of the money supply, continued to decline by 9.3 percent in May from 14 percent in April. The fall in the growth of NFA is mainly due to fall in the growth rate of Indian rupee assets. In the review month, the annual growth rate of Indian rupee recorded negative 73.4 percent. While, the growth of convertible foreign currency assets recorded 27 percent. As of May, the NFA amounted to Nu. 24,374.7 million, of which, Indian rupee amounted to Nu. 1,047.7 million and convertible foreign currency amounted to Nu. 23,327 million. On the other hand, the growth of DC witnessed increase of 20 percent in May from 15.6 percent last month. The increase in the DC is mainly influenced by the developments in the credit to the public sector. The growth in the credit to the private sector (including joint corporations) in the review month increased by 33.9 percent from 27.1 percent last month. M2 NFA DC OIN Feb Mar Apr May percent Annual Growth in M2 & its Counterparts Growth in M2 & its Counterparts (annual change) Feb-07 Mar Apr May NFA DC OIN M2 The growth of other items net (OIN) in the review month declined to 10.2 percent from 87.6 percent in April. *) For monetary analysis, the balance sheet data are classified within the framework of money and banking statistics according to international best practices. The data are not comparable to those produced by the Financial Institutions Supervision Division. 3 4

3 Performance of Commercial Banks The total assets/liabilities of commercial banks increased to Nu. 26,162.8 million in May from Nu. 23,385.6 million in the same period last year, recording an annual growth of 11.9 percent. As indicated in the table, commercial banks total reserves with the RMA amounted to Nu. 10,041.8 million in May, which works out to 38.4 percent of their total assets. Of the total reserves, 29 percent were absorbed through CRR, 0.7 percent through RMA Bills, while, 68.7 percent were held as other deposits. In addition to these reserves, Commercial Banks' Reserves with the RMA End of period Nu. in million Item Feb Mar Apr May Cash CRR RMA Bills/RR Other deposits % of total Cash CRR RMA Bills/RR Other deposits Foreign Assets of Commerical Banks (*) End of period Nu. in million Item Feb Mar Apr May Rupee Convertible currency % of total Rupee Convertible currency *) Foreign assets of commercial banks includes cash in hand & cash with banks abroad. excluding cash in hand, the banks held Nu. 2,994.9 million worth of foreign assets (both in Indian Rupee and convertible foreign currency) in the review month. During the review month, the commercial banks credit to asset ratio increased from 40.4 to 42.4 percent and credit to deposit ratio from 49.0 to 49.8 percent. Of the total deposit liabilities of the commercial banks (Nu. 22,274.4 million in May ), 34.5 percent were held by individuals, 33.4 percent by government corporations, 14.3 percent by the government and the remaining were held by the other sector. Performance of Non Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) (BDFCL data for the month under review is not available) As of May, the assets/liabilities of RICBL amounted to Nu. 1,880.6 million, an increase of 7.2 percent from the same period last year. This increase was mainly on account of the rise in their claims on the private sector, which increased by 3 percent, to Nu. 1,634.7 million. Their credit accounted for about 94 percent of the total assets. Sectoral Credit by the Financial Institutions The growth (y-o-y) in the total credit of financial institutions (Excl. BDFCL) grew by 9 percent in May. The total outstanding credit as of May stood at Nu. 12,092 million. Of the total credit, 35.8 percent were invested in the building and construction sector, followed by manufacturing (18%), trade and commerce (17.3%), and service and tourism (11.4%) with the remainder invested in other sectors. GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Gross international reserves in May, increased by 22.3 percent (y-o-y) to USD million. Of the total, the convertible currency reserves grew by 42.6 percent to USD million, while the Indian rupee (INR) reserves had a negative growth of 74 percent to INR 1,010.9 million. As of the review month, overall reserves can finance 13.6 months of imports (including service imports). Gross International Reserves End of period Item 2003/ / /06 /07 Feb Mar Apr May (millions of USD) Rupee (millions of INR) Convertible currency (millions of USD) Months of imports *) (including service imports) (excluding service imports) Rupee Convertible currency *) Data for 2005/06 and after are based on provisional import figures for 2005/06. Note: reserves are inclusive of the holdings of the two commercial banks - please refer to Table 5 for the detailed breakups. 5 6

4 SALES OF MAJOR POWER PROJECTS Hydropower export earnings totalled Nu million in May. Compared to May, Chukha exports increased by 3.5 percent while Kurichhu exports fell by 34.7 percent. Tala exports amounted to Nu million. Nu. millions Export Earnings from Hydropower Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 BTN/USD EXCHANGE RATE The exchange rate of the Ngultrum vis-à-vis US dollar averaged Nu per US dollar in June, an appreciation of almost 13 percent compared to the average exchange rate in June. INTEREST RATES BTN per USD Jun- 06 Exchange Rate BTN vis-à-vis USD (Monthly Average) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan- 07 Feb Mar Apr May Jun TOURIST ARRIVALS / REVENUE June saw 580 convertible currency paying tourist arrivals, and a gross revenue earning of USD 0.71 million. Compared to June, arrivals have risen by 37 percent and revenue by 61 percent. USD millions Foreign Exchange Earnings from Toursim Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 As of September, the deposit and lending rates of BOBL and BNBL remained in the and percent ranges, respectively, and the corporate deposit rates ranges between percent. The prime lending rates (PLR) of the five major Indian commercial banks at the end of June remained in the percent range prevailing since the third week of April. Deposit rates increased to the percent range in the last week of June. In annual terms, the PLR has increased from the percent range while, deposit rates have increased from the percent range in June. OTHER MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS As per the revised GDP, real GDP growth slowed marginally to 6.5 percent in 2005 as compared to 6.8 percent in Inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the consumer price index fell to 4.3 percent in the Q1, from 5.3 percent in Q4. The price decrease was recorded mainly in the non-food items. As of March,the purchasing power of Ngultrum remained at 85 Chheltrum. 7 8

5 Provisional estimates for the balance of payments statistics indicate an improvement in the current account deficit to 2.5 percent of GDP, or Nu million in 2005/06. However, the capital and financial account balance was positive at Nu.6.4 billion driven by grants and loans for hydropower developments as well as concessional loans for other development activities. As a result, there was an overall balance of Nu. 6.6 billion in 2005/06. As of December, the stock of external debt outstanding stood at USD million, increasing by 1.2 percent from the end of the last fiscal year. Of the total, USD million were outstanding convertible currency debt and an equivalent of USD million (or, Rs billion) were Indian Rupee debt. Debt servicing in fiscal year /07 up to the quarter ending December amounted to USD 5.1 million on convertible currency and Rs million on Indian Rupee debt. External Debt Indicators 2002/ / / /06 Dec '06 Debt Outstanding (in millions) (USD) Convertible Currency (USD) Indian Rupee (INR) 10, , , , ,369.0 Debt/GDP ratio * Convertible Currency loan Indian Rupee loan Debt servicing ratio ** Convertible Currency loan Indian Rupee loan * Based on calendar year GDP figures. Example, the 2004 GDP figure is used to calculate the ratio for 2004/05. End of Period DATA Table 1. Monetary Survey- Aggregates and Components Current account Savings deposits , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , M2 M1 Of which:1) Demand deposits Currency in circ.outside banks Millions of Ngultrum Quasi-Money Feb 19, , , , , , , , Mar 20, , , , , , , , Apr 21, , , , , , , , May 19, , , , , , , , Feb 21, , , , , , , , ,182.4 Mar 21, , , , , , , , ,173.5 Apr 21, , , , , , , , ,226.6 May 22, , , , , , , , ,326.9 Percentage change on the previous year Feb Mar (1.2) Apr May (0.8) (14.7) Feb Mar (0.4) (2.8) 80.2 Apr (0.2) (7.0) 20.4 (6.4) (11.8) 83.1 May (12.9) (20.1) Time deposits Foreign currency deposits ** Debt service payments as a percent of the export of goods and services. debt service ratio represents the total debt service payments (ie on convertible currency & rupee loans) as a percentage of the total export earnings (from India & other countries). Convertible currency debt service ratio is the debt servicing on convertible currency loans as a percentage of the export earnings from countries other than India. Similarly, Indian rupee debt service ratio is the debt servicing on Indian rupee loans as a percentage of the export earnings from India. 9 10

6 Table 2. Monetary Survey- M2 and its Counterparts (*) End of period M2 Percent Foreign assets (net) Domestic assets (net) Domestic credit Public sector Feb-07 Millions of Ngultrum Contribution to M2 (Counterparts) Mar Apr Government (net) May Other public sector (1) Private sector (2) Other items (net)(3) , ,823.3 (4,021.3) 1,485.7 (940.5) (1,255.7) , , , ,303.7 (3,428.1) 2,945.3 (203.9) (455.9) , , , ,802.8 (2,956.8) 3,006.4 (932.4) (2,035.0) 1, , , , ,327.3 (727.9) 5, (936.3) 1, , , , ,369.0 (2,799.8) 5,083.9 (1,487.0) (2,715.3) 1, , ,883.7 Feb 19, ,492.1 (2,275.2) 4,463.2 (2,390.3) (3,619.0) 1, , ,738.4 Mar 20, ,394.4 (1,334.6) 5,667.8 (1,403.6) (2,717.6) 1, , ,002.4 Apr 21, , ,921.8 (2,673.5) (3,942.4) 1, , ,293.7 May 19, ,302.2 (2,462.5) 5,431.5 (1,944.6) (3,259.9) 1, , ,894.0 Feb 21, ,826.7 (5,285.5) 5,505.8 (3,640.8) (4,875.1) 1, , ,791.4 Mar 21, ,738.0 (4,364.7) 5,462.7 (3,825.6) (5,086.9) 1, , ,827.3 Apr 21, ,020.4 (2,365.1) 5,687.9 (3,964.5) (5,200.6) 1, , ,053.0 May 22, ,374.7 (2,178.9) 6,518.4 (3,359.8) (4,596.5) 1, , ,697.4 Percentage change on the previous year Feb (22.2) (10.7) (6.2) 30.4 (15.0) Mar (58.3) 0.1 (592.8) (0.0) 31.6 (21.0) Apr (119.9) (1.8) 38.6 (46.8) May (768.1) (4.8) (1,112.7) Feb Mar (3.6) (4.0) Apr (0.2) 14.0 (476.6) (2.6) May (11.5) (6.0) (*) Discrepancies in the results are due to rounding. 1)Government Corporations. 2)Including Joint Corporations. 3) Taking into consideration RMA Bills and the Reserve Repurchase (plus) and claims on NMFIs (minus). End of period Item Table 3. Deposit Liabilities of the Commercial Banks Feb Mar Apr Deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Demand deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Time Deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others % of total deposits Nu. in million deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Demand deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Time Deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others May NFA C (rest) C (Pvt) OIN M

7 Table 4. Sectoral Credit by the Financial Institutions, by Sub-sector Nu. in million at period end Sub sector Feb Mar Apr May* Agriculture Service and T ourism Manufacturing Building & Co nstruction Trade & Com merce Transport (Heav y) Transport (Light) Personal Loans Staff loan EDP Loans Small Business and Artisan Schemes Loan Against Shares * Sectoral credit of BDFCL is not available from March. Nu. in million Major Credit to Private Sector Jan- Feb Mar Apr May 07 Tourism/Services Manuf. Construction Third Quarter of 2003 = 100 Table 5. Gross International Reserves (*) Item Millions of Indian Rupees End of period Feb Mar Apr May 1.Rupee reserves Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan Bank of Bhutan Limited Bhutan National Bank Limited Millions of US Dollar 2.Convertible currency reserves Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (1) Bank of Bhutan Limited Bhutan National Bank Limited reserves (1+2) (*) Excludes cash in hand of commercial banks;(1) Includes reserve tranche position in the Fund. Table 6. Summary of the Consumer Price Index (*) Period Weight in Item percent 1) Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Index Food Non-food Percentage change on the previous year Food Non-food PPN Source : National Statistical Bureau. -(*) The index refers to the average prices during the respective quarters. -1) 2003 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Includes rent

8 Table 7. Operations of Major Power Projects Table 8. Tourist Arrivals and Revenues (*) Period Production (millions of unit) Export Sales (Nu. Millions) Domestic Sales (Nu. Millions) (2) (1) Basochu Chukha Kurichhu Tala Chukha Kurichhu Tala Basochu Chukha Kurichhu Tala Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jan Feb Mar Apr May Percent change on the previous year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jan Feb Mar Apr May Source: Basochu Hydropower Corporation Ltd. (BHPCL), Chukha Hydropower Corporation Ltd. (CHPCL), Kurichhu Hydropower Corporation Ltd. (KHPCL), and Tala Hydroelectric Project Authority (THPA). (1) Export sales are to India; Tariff for export of power from CHPCL has been revised from Nu.1.50 to Nu.2.00 per unit, with effect from January 1, 2005; KHPCL exports power at Nu.1.75 per unit; Tala exports power at Nu.1.8 per unit. (2) Domestic sales from CHPCL and KHPCL are to the Bhutan Power Corporation (BPC) at Nu.0.3 per unit. From Feb., KHPCL also started sale to industrial consumers at Nu.1.20 per unit. Tala sales to BPC are at Nu.0.3 per unit for 15% of energy sold while the remaining 85% is sold at Nu.1.2 per unit. Effective from July 2005, CHPCL is the sole purchaser of energy from Basochu at Nu.1.2 per unit. Note: Export sales for the CHPCL and THPA reflected here are net of any payments for import of power from India in each month. Number of Tourists and Revenues in Millions of US Dollars Period Number Revenue Number Revenue Number Revenue Number Revenue Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Department of Tourism (*) Convertible currency paying tourists

9 In millions of respective currency Table 9. Non-Resident Bhutanese Remittances *) Origin United States United Kingdom Japan Europe TOTAL Value in USD BTN USD BTN USD BTN USD BTN USD BTN Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Note: Monthly average exchange rates of respective original currencies vis-à-vis US dollar were used to convert into USD values. USD values were converted into BTN values using monthly average exchange rate of the BTN vis-àvis the USD. Sources: Bank of Bhutan Limited and Bhutan National Bank Limited. IMF and respective central bank websites for exchange rates. Period Average Table 10. Exchange Rate BTN/USD Period Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Calendar year average Fiscal year average Year 2001/ / / / /06 / Source : International Financial Statistics, IMF *) Data for May has not yet been received from Bhutan National Bank Limited Exchange Rate BTN/USD (Fiscal Year Average) Nu. per USD / / / /06 /

10 Percent per annum Table 11. Selected Interest Rates in Bhutan Deposit Rates BOBL BNBL Savings Deposits Term Deposits (General) 3 months to less than 1 year 1 year to less than 2 years 2 years to less than 3 years More than 3 years Corporate Deposits 46 days to 1 year 46 days and above Percent per annum Loans by Purpose General Trade Export Finance Manufacturing Industry Service Industries Transport (heavy) Lending Rates Transport (light-commercial) Transport (light-non commercial) Agriculture & Livestock BOB BNB Housing Equity Finance 13.0 Personal Loan Small Loan to Government employees Vehicle Loans to Government employees Business 14.0 Interest rates as of September. Table 12. Selected Interest Rates in India Percent per annum Week ended Prime Lending Rate 1) Deposit Rate 2) Jan Feb Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr Apr May Jun Note: 1) The Prime Lending Rate relates to five major banks. 2) The Deposit Rate relates to major banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. Source: Weekly Statistical Supplement, RBI

11 PREFACE...1 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS...2 COMMENTARIES...3 MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS... 3 GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES... 6 TOURIST ARRIVALS / REVENUE... 7 BTN/USD EXCHANGE RATE... 8 INTEREST RATES... 8 OTHER MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS... 8 DATA...10 TABLE 1. MONETARY SURVEY- AGGREGATES AND COMPONENTS TABLE 2. MONETARY SURVEY- M2 AND ITS COUNTERPARTS TABLE 3. DEPOSIT LIABILITIES OF THE COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE 4. SECTORAL CREDIT BY THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, BY SUB- SECTOR TABLE 5. GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES TABLE 6. SUMMARY OF THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX TABLE 7. OPERATIONS OF MAJOR POWER PROJECTS TABLE 8. TOURIST ARRIVALS AND REVENUES TABLE 9. NON-RESIDENT BHUTANESE REMITTANCES TABLE 10. EXCHANGE RATE BTN/USD TABLE 11. SELECTED INTEREST RATES IN BHUTAN TABLE 12. SELECTED INTEREST RATES IN INDIA... 20