PREFACE. The main data sources are the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, Trade & Investment (MOFTI) and the National Bureau of Statistics.

Transcription

1

2 PREFACE The Statistical Bulletin is a publication by the through which it will disseminate information on a monthly basis. One of its main objectives is to provide the public with economic and financial data about the Seychelles economy. The main data sources are the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, Trade & Investment (MOFTI) and the National Bureau of Statistics. The statistics in this document cover a period of thirteen months. As of January 2013, Monetary Aggregates include Seychelles Credit Union and Bank Muscat International. The manuals used in this bulletin are Monetary & Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) 2000 and Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6)

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables and Charts Table No. Title Page 1.1 Inflation External Reserves Central Bank Survey Other Depository Corporations Survey (ODC) Depository Corporations Survey Money Market Interest Rates Average Effective Interest Rates of ODC Monthly Average Exchange Rates End of Period Exchange Rates Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions (SCR) Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions (USD) Credit to the economy by sector Balance of Payments Government Finance Statistics Stock of Public Debt General Financial Soundness Indicators of ODC Capital Adequacy and Asset Quality Indicators of ODC Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market Risk of ODC Notes and Coins in circulation Bankers Clearing House Activities Payment System Instrument Activities Tourism Indicators 19

4 Chart No. Title Page 1.1 Inflation CBS External Reserves Reserve Money Monetary Aggregates Treasury Bills Rate Interest Rates Monthly Average Exchange Rates Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions Credit to the economy by sector Stock of Government Securities General Financial Soundness Indicators of ODC Capital Adequacy and Asset Quality Indicators of ODC Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market Risk of ODC Notes and Coins in circulation Bankers Clearing House Activities Tourism Income 19

5 TECHNICAL NOTES Due to the rounding of figures, the sum of separate items may not always add up to the total shown. Abbreviations used in this bulletin SCR = Seychelles Rupee CBS = RM = Reserve Money DC = Depository Corporations ODC = Other Depository Corporations DAA = Deposit Auction Arrangement RRA = Reverse Repo Agreement NIR = Net International Reserves Govt. = Government NPI = Non Profit Institution GFS = Government Finance Statistics SCU = Seychelles Credit Union BMI = Bank Muscat International - = Nil > = Greater than = Less than or equal to M-o-m = Month on month Y-o-y = Year on year.. = Negligible

6 EXPLANATORY NOTES Terminologies used in this bulletin: Other Depository Corporations = Financial corporations which have liabilities in the form of deposits or financial instruments (principally commercial banks) Money Aggregates = Measures of different categories of money supply Deposit Auction Arrangement = An open market instrument used by the Central Bank to absorb liquidity Reverse Repo Agreement = A formal legal agreement under which the Central Bank sells securities to commercial banks at a specific price, with an understanding to repurchase the same securities at the original selling price at a particular future date Net International Reserves = Foreign assets less external liabilities being held by the Central Bank. In the context of IMF-supported program, Net International Reserves targets are to be met at the end of every quarter M1 = The most liquid measure of money supply consisting of currency with public and transferable deposits Quasi Money = Fixed Term Deposits + Savings Deposits; also known as near money and is normally comprised of the least liquid components of money such as call and fixed term deposits held at other depository corporations M2 = Comprising of M1 + Quasi Money M3 = The broadest measure of money, comprising of money aggregate M2 and foreign currency deposits of residents only. CBS Overnight Facility = Short term liquidity facility at 1.50% above interbank lending rate Authorised Dealers = Licensed Commercial Banks and Bureaux de Change Regulatory Capital = The amount of risk capital held by financial institutions (such as other depository corporations) which enable them to survive against unexpected losses Non-performing loans = The amount of loans in arrears for more than three months Broad liquid asset = Cash, Other depository corporations balances, Balances with CBS and Government securities Liquid Assets = Assets that can easily be converted into cash and incurring minimum losses High Value Cheques = Cheques valued at more than SCR 100,000 Data series may differ from previous publications due to revisions Due to rounding off, some figures may not necessarily add up

7 Summary of selected indicators Economic Indicators Inflation (%) 12-month average Year-on-year Money (SCR Million) 1/ Reserve Money 3,259 3,304 2,124 2,793 2,712 2,417 2,553 2,529 2,533 2,742 2,483 2,477 2,401 Broad Money (M3) 9,091 9,281 9,340 9,508 9,544 10,134 10,314 10,118 10,234 10,112 10,304 10,601 10,734 Effective Average Interest Rate (%) Savings Deposit Lending Treasury Bills 1/ 91-day day day External Reserves (USD Million) 1/ Gross International Reserves Net International Reserves Net Reserves in months of imports 2/ Average Exchange Rate (SCR per currency) USD ($) EUR ( ) GBP ( ) Government Financial Statistics (SCR Million) Primary Balance (including grants) % of GDP Public Debt ( SCR Million) Total Public Debt 8,619 9,944 10,284 10,222 10,005 10,311 10,477 10,766 10,872 10,839 11,079 11,452 12,274 External Debt 5,628 5,627 5,764 5,793 5,788 5,794 5,603 5,803 5,832 5,754 6,029 6,243 6,529 % of GDP Domestic Debt 2,992 4,317 4,520 4,429 4,218 4,516 4,874 4,963 5,041 5,085 5,050 5,210 5,745 % of GDP Financial Sector Indicators Capital Adequacy and Asset Quality Indicators (%) Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets Non performing loans to gross loans Liquidity and Probability (%) Broad liquid assets to total liabilities Return on assets Sensitivity to Market Risk (%) Total long position in foreign exchange to capital Total short position in foreign exchange to capital Banking and Currency Indicators Circulation of Notes and Coins Total currency in circulation (SCR Million) M-o-M change in Total currency in circulation (%) Banker's Clearing House Activities Number of cheques 68,740 61,243 66,805 63,236 58,541 63,849 66,343 66,767 54,789 74,241 62,824 66,300 70,658 Value of cheques (SCR Million) 1,206 1,107 1,325 1,309 1,166 1,224 1,360 1,318 1,596 2,141 1,788 1,840 2,112 Payment System Instrument Activities Debit cards in circulation 58,612 60,505 60,965 60,777 58,154 59,100 59,007 60,075 60,885 58,528 61,564 62,411 63,053 SWIFT messages sent to participants 7,535 7,833 11,180 5,163 6,620 7,778 8,305 8,230 6,393 10,151 7,905 7,860 9,805 1/End of period 2/ Based on latest available import data

8 Table 1.1 Inflation Percentage (%) 12-month average Month-on-month Year-on-year Source: National Bureau of Statistics Chart 1.1: Inflation Source: National Bureau of Statistics Page 1

9 Gross International Reserves Net International Reserves Table 2.1 External Reserves USD Million Gross Reserves in months of imports Net Reserves in months of imports 1/ / Reserves in terms of total prospective imports of goods and services for the coming year Chart 2.1: External Reserves Target (NIR) Target Target Target (NIR) Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (NIR) (NIR) Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q4 Q2 Q2Q1 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q3 USD Million USD USD Million Million Target Target(NIR) Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 USD Target(NIR) Million Q Q Q Q Q4 USD Million Page 2

10 Table 3.1 Central Bank Survey 1/ SCR Million Reserve Money 3,259 3,304 2,124 2,793 2,712 2,417 2,553 2,529 2,533 2,742 2,483 2,477 2,401 Currency in Circulation ODC Reserves at CBS 2,437 2,480 1,224 1,914 1,832 1,523 1,645 1,614 1,630 1,845 1,571 1,551 1,443 Net Foreign Assets 4,188 4,309 4,580 4,758 4,825 5,017 5,125 5,307 5,186 5,276 5,497 5,701 5,822 Net Domestic Assets ,036-1,265-1,276-1,373-1,389-1,594-1,996 Net Claims on Government ,036-1,265-1,276-1,373-1,389-1,594-1,996 Government Deposits 1,227 1,324 1,599 1,657 1,536 1,890 2,221 2,450 2,461 2,558 2,574 2,779 3,181 Government Credit 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 Other items net, of which: ,042 1,493 1,762 1,894 1,536 1,513 1,376 1,161 1,625 1,631 1,425 Open Market Operations , ,199 1, Deposit Auction Arrangement , ,199 1, / End of period data Chart 3.1: Reserve Money Position Target (RM): Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 SCR Million 2, , , , ,442.0 Page 3

11 Table 4.1 Other Depository Corporations Survey 1/ SCR Million Net Foreign Assets 2,617 2,742 2,725 2,797 2,830 3,173 3,362 2,692 2,663 2,581 2,665 2,975 3,000 Domestic Assets 6,207 6,343 6,442 6,357 6,242 6,535 6,812 6,923 7,038 7,205 7,239 7,447 7,764 Claims on private sector 3,406 3,436 3,412 3,408 3,463 3,493 3,514 3,554 3,656 3,723 3,832 3,934 4,061 Claims on public entities Claims on Government, net 2,487 2,596 2,726 2,647 2,484 2,749 3,010 3,088 3,106 3,212 3,137 3,251 3,425 Holdings in National Currency Deposits included in Broad Money 8,390 8,566 8,584 8,777 8,823 9,399 9,561 9,377 9,435 9,330 9,507 9,802 9,907 Transferable deposits 2,282 2,309 2,433 2,446 2,398 2,552 2,519 2,520 2,542 2,579 2,445 2,449 2,478 Fixed Term deposits 1,237 1,220 1,185 1,194 1,191 1,199 1,217 1,202 1,188 1,206 1,230 1,222 1,187 Savings deposits 1,978 2,036 2,018 2,056 2,102 2,092 2,102 2,123 2,135 2,119 2,131 2,136 2,111 Foreign Currency Deposits 2,893 3,001 2,948 3,081 3,132 3,555 3,722 3,533 3,570 3,426 3,702 3,995 4,131 Other items, net / End of period data Page 4

12 Table 4.2 Depository Corporations Survey 1/ SCR Million Net Foreign Assets 6,805 7,052 7,305 7,554 7,655 8,189 8,488 7,999 7,849 7,857 8,162 8,677 8,821 Central Bank 4,188 4,309 4,580 4,758 4,825 5,017 5,125 5,307 5,186 5,276 5,497 5,701 5,822 Other Depository Corporations 2,617 2,742 2,725 2,797 2,830 3,173 3,362 2,692 2,663 2,581 2,665 2,975 3,000 Domestic Assets 6,165 6,204 6,028 5,886 5,891 5,830 5,776 5,657 5,762 5,832 5,849 5,853 5,768 Claims on private sector 3,406 3,436 3,412 3,408 3,463 3,493 3,514 3,554 3,656 3,723 3,832 3,935 4,061 Claims on public entities Claims on Gov't, net 2,445 2,457 2,312 2,175 2,132 2,044 1,974 1,822 1,830 1,839 1,748 1,657 1,429 Monetary Aggregate (M3) 9,091 9,281 9,340 9,508 9,544 10,134 10,314 10,118 10,234 10,112 10,304 10,601 10,734 Monetary Aggregate (M2) 6,198 6,280 6,392 6,427 6,412 6,579 6,591 6,585 6,664 6,686 6,602 6,606 6,603 Monetary Aggregate (M1) 2,982 3,024 3,189 3,176 3,119 3,288 3,272 3,261 3,341 3,361 3,241 3,248 3,305 Currency with public Transferable deposits 2,282 2,309 2,433 2,446 2,398 2,552 2,519 2,520 2,542 2,579 2,445 2,449 2,478 Quasi Money 3,216 3,256 3,203 3,251 3,293 3,291 3,319 3,324 3,323 3,325 3,360 3,358 3,298 Fixed Term deposits 1,237 1,220 1,185 1,194 1,191 1,199 1,217 1,202 1,188 1,206 1,230 1,222 1,187 Savings deposits 1,978 2,036 2,018 2,056 2,102 2,092 2,102 2,123 2,135 2,119 2,131 2,136 2,111 Foreign Currency Deposits 2,893 3,001 2,948 3,081 3,132 3,555 3,722 3,533 3,570 3,426 3,702 3,995 4,131 Other items, net 3,880 3,975 3,993 3,932 4,001 3,885 3,950 3,539 3,377 3,577 3,707 3,929 3,855 Memorandum items: Monetary Base/ Reserve Money 3,259 3,304 2,124 2,793 2,712 2,417 2,553 2,529 2,533 2,742 2,483 2,477 2,401 1/ End of period data Chart 4.1: Monetary Aggregates Page 5

13 Table 5.1 Money Market Interest Rates 1/ Percentage (%) Interbank Lending CBS Overnight Facility Treasury Bills Rate 91-day day day Deposit Auction Arrangement Rates (DAA) 2/ 7-day day / End of period data 2/ As of 1st August 2014, interest rate on short-term DAA has been fixed by CBS Chart 5.1: Treasury Bills Rate Page 6

14 Table 6.1 Average Effective Interest Rates of Other Depository Corporations Percentage (%) Savings Deposit Fixed Term Deposits Local Currency days > 7 days 3 months > 3 months 6 months > 6 months 12 months > 12 months Foreign Currency days > 7 days 3 months > 3 months 6 months > 6 months 12 months > 12 months Average Lending Rate 1/ / Includes both rupee and foreign currency loans Chart 6.1: Interest Rates Page 7

15 Table 7.1 Monthly Average Exchange Rates 1/ SCR per currency USD ($) EUR ( ) GBP ( ) / Average exchange rates of authorised dealers Table 7.2 End of period Exchange Rates 2/ SCR per currency USD ($) EUR ( ) GBP ( ) / End of period exchange rates of authorised dealers Chart 7.1: Monthly Average Exchange Rates Page 8

16 Table 8.1 Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions SCR Million Total Purchases USD ($) EUR ( ) GBP ( ) Others Total Sales USD ($) EUR ( ) GBP ( ) Others Net Purchases Note: This does not include Central Bank transactions or transactions between authorised dealers Table 8.2 Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions USD Million Total Purchases Total Sales Net Purchases Note: This does not include Central Bank transactions or transactions between authorised dealers Chart 8.1: Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions Page 9

17 Table 9.1 Credit to the Economy by Sector 1/ (SCR Million) Total Credit (SCR Million) 3,406 3,436 3,412 3,408 3,463 3,493 3,514 3,554 3,656 3,723 3,832 3,935 4,061 Agriculture and horticulture Fisheries Building and construction Manufacturing Real Estate Tourism Facilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Transportation Private Households and NPI's Mortgage Loans Others Memorandum Items Credit in Seychelles Rupees 2,778 2,805 2,782 2,744 2,795 2,802 2,816 2,848 2,905 2,962 3,022 3,070 3,169 Credit in Foreign Currency / End of period data Credit to the Economy by Sector (Percentage) Total Percentage (%) Agriculture and horticulture Fisheries Building and construction Manufacturing Real Estate Tourism Facilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Transportation Private Households and NPI's Mortgage Loans Others Chart 9.1: Credit to the Economy by Sector Page 10

18 Table 10.1 Balance of Payments (1) USD Million Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Current account Trade balance Exports of goods (f.o.b) Imports of goods (f.o.b) Services, net Exports of services of which: Tourism Earnings Imports of services Primary Income, net Compensation of employees Investment income Secondary Income, net of which: General government, net of which : Other sectors, net Capital account Financial account, net Direct investment, net In Seychelles Abroad Portfolio investment, net Assets Liabilities Other investment, net Assets Liabilities Net errors and omissions Overall balance Financing Reserve Arrears Memorandum items: Trade Balance (f.o.b.). (merchandise exports less imports) Stock of Reserves (Gross) (US$ million) Stock of Reserves (Gross) (Months of imports) Exchange Rate (Rupee/US$; period average) / Data may differ from previous publications due to revisions Page 11

19 Table 11.1 Government Finance Statistics SCR Million 1/ The primary balance is obtained by excluding interest payments from the overall balance Source: Ministry of Finance, Trade & Investment Budget Actual Budget Actual Budget Actual Budget Actual Revenue & Grants 1,689 1,651 1,299 1,330 1,722 1,535 1,488 1,504 Total Revenue 1,642 1,558 1,204 1,292 1,529 1,494 1,416 1,485 Tax 1,280 1,242 1,060 1,150 1,346 1,339 1,248 1,324 Non-Tax Grants Expenditure and Net Lending 1,939 1,718 1,404 1,130 1,511 1,243 1,527 1, Current Expenditure 1,399 1,240 1,202 1,032 1,151 1,045 1,240 1, Primary Current Expenditure 1,224 1,122 1, , ,022 1,066 Wages and salaries Goods and services Interest due External Domestic Transfers Social programme of Central Govt Transfers to public sector from Central Govt Benefits and approved programs of SSF Benefits Payment of SPF Other Capital Expenditure Total Expenditure 1,889 1, Net lending Contingency Primary balance, Accrual basis (GFS) 1/ 2013 Q4 Including grants In percent of GDP (%) Excluding grants In percent of GDP (%) Overall balance, Accrual basis (GFS) In percent of GDP (%) Q Q Q3 Page 12

20 Table 12.1 Stock of Public Debt SCR Million Total Public Debt 8,619 9,944 10,284 10,222 10,005 10,311 10,477 10,766 10,872 10,839 11,079 11,452 12,274 External Debt 5,628 5,627 5,764 5,793 5,788 5,794 5,603 5,803 5,832 5,754 6,029 6,243 6,529 Bilateral 1,656 1,656 1,658 1,661 1,657 1,660 1,611 1,663 1,672 1,643 1,714 1,732 1,788 Multilateral 1,198 1,198 1,329 1,331 1,344 1,344 1,296 1,336 1,357 1,329 1,381 1,480 1,544 Commercial 2,774 2,773 2,776 2,801 2,787 2,791 2,696 2,804 2,803 2,782 2,934 3,031 3,197 Domestic Debt 2,992 4,317 4,520 4,429 4,218 4,516 4,874 4,963 5,041 5,085 5,050 5,210 5,745 Government Securities 2, , , , , , , , , , , , ,941.2 Treasury Bills 2,045 3,329 3,493 3,401 3,199 3,077 3,219 3,306 3,308 3,338 3,286 3,451 3,985 Treasury Bonds Government Stocks Treasury Deposits Other Loans Memorandum Items External Debt as % of GDP Domestic Debt as % of GDP Source: Ministry of Finance Chart 10.1: Stock of Government Securities Source: Ministry of Finance Page 13

21 Table 13.1 General Financial Soundness Indicators of Other Depository Corporations SCR Million Total deposits liabilities 14,745 14,781 14,660 14,848 15,014 15,789 15,288 14,718 14,702 14,540 14,737 14,834 15,153 Total assets 17,331 17,413 17,245 17,475 17,733 18,424 17,903 17,273 17,297 17,165 17,287 17,389 17,818 Loans & advances 4,399 4,417 4,384 4,370 4,416 4,434 4,455 4,486 4,584 4,646 4,750 4,846 4,984 Equity Capital 1,680 1,701 1,671 1,708 1,742 1,749 1,643 1,564 1,591 1,607 1,642 1,497 1,487 Non performing loans (NPLs), gross Actual Provisions (Specific) Figures are unaudited Chart 11.1: General Financial Soundness Indicators of Other Depository Corporations Page 14

22 Table 13.2 Capital Adequacy and Asset Quality Indicators of Other Depository Corporations Percentage (%) Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets Non-performing loans to gross loans Provision as % of non-performing loans Net tangible capitalization ratio Figures are unaudited Chart 11.2: Capital Adequacy and Asset Quality Indicators of Other Depository Corporations Page 15

23 Table 13.3 Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market risk of Other Depository Corporations Percentage (%) Earnings & Profitability Return on assets Return on equity Liquidity Broad liquid assets to total liabilities Sensitivity to Market Risk Total long position in foreign exchange to capital Total short position in foreign exchange to capital Net open position to capital Figures are unaudited Chart 11.3: Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market risk of Other Depository Corporations Page 16

24 Table 14.1 Notes and Coins in circulation 1/ SCR Million Total Currency in Circulation Notes Coins Month-on-month change in total currency in Circulation (%) Share of Total Currency in Circulation (%) Notes Coins / End of period data Chart 12.1: Notes and Coins in circulation Page 17

25 Table 15.1 Bankers Clearing House Activities Number of cheques 68,740 61,243 66,805 63,236 58,541 63,849 66,343 66,767 54,789 74,241 62,824 66,300 70,658 of which: Number of High Valued cheques 1,791 1,650 1,838 1,847 1,748 1,788 1,853 1,904 1,056 1,501 1,233 1,264 1,348 Value of cheques 1,206 1,107 1,325 1,309 1,166 1,224 1,360 1,318 1,596 2,141 1,788 1,840 2,112 of which: Value of High Valued cheques Month-on-month change in values of cheques (%) Table 15.2 Payment System Instrument Activities Number of debit cards in circulation 58,612 60,505 60,965 60,777 58,154 59,100 59,007 60,075 60,885 58,528 61,564 62,411 63,053 Number of Point of Sale 1,841 1,874 1,890 1,917 1,931 1,882 1,888 1,905 1,913 1,925 1,942 1,943 1,984 Number of SWIFT messages sent to participants 7,535 7,833 11,180 5,163 6,620 7,778 8,305 8,230 6,393 10,151 7,905 7,860 9,805 Value of SWIFT messages sent to participants (SCR Million) 1,421 1,631 1, Chart 13.1: Bankers Clearing House Activities Page 18

26 Table 16.1 Tourism Indicators Visitors Arrival 22,460 18,240 20,577 16,521 20,587 20,381 23,115 15,298 14,968 18,996 20,546 17,024 23,312 Average length of stay (nights) Source: National Bureau of Statistics Chart 14.1: Tourism Indicators Page 19

27 Page 20