Reserve Bank of Fiji 24 January FIJI ECONOMY - Recent Economic Developments
|
|
- Bennett Baldwin
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Reserve Bank of Fiji 24 January 217 FIJI ECONOMY - Recent Economic Developments
2 Developments in the International Economy that would impact on Fiji s Economy? Global growth/us/china Trading partner performances Commodity price movements Major currency changes Geopolitical tensions Policy uncertainty (tighter monetary stances, protectionist trade policies, etc.)
3 WORLD GDP GROWTH % July ' f217f Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook July/October 216 Global growth forecast this year is stronger than that for 216, with upward biases provided by the US and China. The outlook for advanced economies has improved, reflecting rebound in second-half activity last year for the US, Euro zone, the UK. Weaker prospects for emerging market and developing economies, particularly India and Brazil. Deviation from this central forecast driven by policy uncertainty around the policy stance of the incoming US administration and its impact. Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Update Jan 217
4 % TRADING PARTNERS OUTLOOK Positive growth momentum 216e 217f 218f United States Eurozone Japan Australia New Zealand Sources: January 217 Consensus Forecast and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts
5 ASIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1 % Growth prospects weaker China India Thailand Malaysia Korea Hong Kong Singapore Sources: January 217 Consensus Forecast and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts
6 COMMODITIES - Recent Developments Agreement by OPEC and non- OPEC members on oil supply Oil production in the US Increased demand by China Other supply related factors
7 IMPORT COMMODITY PRICES FAO Food Price Index Index 3 25 MOM -.1% YOY 12.% Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 US$/barrel Brent Crude Oil Prices Source: Global Food Price Monitor December, WM 23/1 US55.68cents/barrel 8 Current futures Source: Bloomberg
8 EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES cents/lb 3 2 World Market Sugar Prices (New York) WM 2/1 US2.22 cents/pound Current Futures Sources: Bloomberg $/oz 2, 1, Gold Prices (End of Month) WM 2/1 US$1,2.6 /fine ounce Current Futures Source: Bloomberg
9 THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY Recent developments TC Winston and Zena (Feb/Apr16) TD4F (Dec16) Lower than forecast tourist arrivals Lower than forecast remittances Pick up in commodity prices Delayed reconstruction /supply shortages
10 GDP GROWTH Reduced growth prospects % Actual May-16 Forecast Oct-16 Forecast Gene 29 Mick 21 Tomas Evan r 215p 216f Winston TD4F 217f 218f 219f Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics & Macroeconomic Committee
11 Sector contribution to Estimated Growth in 216 Agriculture, manufacturing, forestry, fishing and water sectors are expected to decline. May % +2.% Primary Industry Services FISH FORESTRY AGRI CONS MINING ELECT & WATER MANU TRANS WH & RETAIL PUB ADMIN ACCOM FINANCIAL INFO & COM PROF EDU OTHER SER Source: Macroeconomic Committee
12 .6.5 Sector contribution to Projected Growth in 217 Broad based growth is expected in 217 slight downward bias following TD4F May % +3.6% Primary Industry Services AGRI FISH FORESTRY MANU CONS MINING ELEC & WATER FINANCIAL TRANS WH & RETAIL ACCOM INFO & COM PUB ADMIN EDU PROF OTHER SER Source: Macroeconomic Committee
13 AGGREGATE DEMAND Consumption indicators remain firm Investment trends are positive Fiscal measures are targeted at rebuilding the economy
14 BANKS NEW CONSUMPTION LOANS, NOV New consumption credit growth has slightly picked F$M Private Individuals (Others) WRHR Y-o-Y (rhs) % From March 214 HFC lending is included in Commercial Banks lending. Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
15 4, NEW VEHICLES SALES No. Annual Jan-Oct 3, 2, -15.9% -14.% 28.8% 1, Note: Effective 212, New Vehicle Sales data inclusive of data from Vision Motors Sources: Fiji Motor Traders Association and Vision Motors
16 VEHICLES REGISTRATION Jan-Nov No. New Vehicles Secondhand Vehicles 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 44.5% -1.4% 9.2% 32.% Source: Land Transport Authority
17 NET VAT COLLECTIONS F$M 1, Annual Jan-Oct 12.4% 8 9.9% 6-26.% Source: Fiji Revenue & Customs Authority
18 RBF RETAIL SALES SURVEY Annual Percent Change % Dec-15 Jun f Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
19 BANKS NEW INVESTMENT LOANS, NOV New investment credit growth has been negative since January 216 F$M % 5 Building & Construction Real Estate Y-o-Y (rhs) From March 214 HFC lending is included in Commercial Banks lending. Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
20 DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES Annual TONNES % 11.1% * Cement production data inclusive of data from Tengy Cement (Fiji) Company Limited effective March 214 Sources: Pacific Cement Ltd and Tengy Cement (Fiji) Company Limited
21 OET MAJOR PAYMENTS SECTORAL CONTRIBUTIONS % Jan- Dec 216: +8.3% Merchandise: +6.2% Transport Equipment Duty Free Goods Unrequitted Transfers Food,Beverages & Tobacco Machinery & Elec. Equip Overseas Investment Income Travel Chemicals TCF Other Imports Merchanted Goods Government Imports Raw Materials Mineral Fuels Source: OET
22 No. 2, BUILDING PERMITS Jan-Sept Number of Permits Annual Value of Permits (Jan-Jun) F$M 5 1,5 1, 6.7% 6.3% 2.1% 12.7% r 216p Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
23 TOTAL VALUE OF WORK PUT-IN-PLACE F$M Annual Jan-Sept % % 1.5% Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
24 Net % Next 3 months Next 12 months BUSINESS SENTIMENTS Outlook for Investment (Plant & Machinery) Jun.12 Dec.12 Jun.13 Dec.13 Jun.14 Dec.14 Jun.15 Dec.15 Jun.16 Outlook for Investment (Buildings) Net % Next 3 months Next 12 months Jun.12 Dec.12 Jun.13 Dec.13 Jun.14 Dec.14 Jun.15 Dec.15 Jun.16 Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
25 Labour market conditions remain favourable
26 RBF JOB ADVERTISEMENTS SURVEY No. 15, 15.1% 19.5% 1, 5, 1,984 12, Source: The Fiji Times
27 JOB ADVERTISEMENTS BY SECTORS No. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing Construction Mining & Quarrying Electricity & Water Wholesale & Retail Trade & Restaurants & Hotels Transport, Storage & Communication Community, Social & Personal Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estates & Business Services Sources: The Fiji Times
28 EXTERNAL SECTOR External balances remain stable despite some deterioration in the trade account and lower than expected performances in the services and income account
29 MAJOR OET PAYMENTS Contribution by category 4. % 3.1 Jan- Dec 216: +8.3% Merchandise: +6.2% Transport Equipment Duty Free Goods Unrequitted Transfers Food,Beverages & Tobacco Machinery & Elec. Equip Overseas Investment Income Travel Chemicals TCF Other Imports Merchanted Goods Government Imports -.9 Raw Materials -2.3 Mineral Fuels Source: OET
30 MAJOR OET RECEIPTS Contribution by category % Jan-Dec: +4.2% Merchandise: +.8% Capital Inflows*** Other Exports* Fish Mineral Water Travel TCF Total Reexports** -1.3 Gold Timber Sugar *Other Exports Includes: Ginger, Copra, Merchant Goods and other exports ** Total Re-exports includes: Mineral fuel and Others Source: OET ***Capital Inflows: Official Capital Transaction & Private Capital Transaction
31 PERSONAL REMITTANCES Lower than expected F$M 6 5 Annual % % F$M Gifts, Maintenance & Donations Personal Receipts Immigrant Transfers % p 216p 217f -5 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16.1 Sources: OET & Macroeconomic Committee
32 FIJI DOLLAR/BASKET CURRENCIES.74 NZD Depreciation AUD.5 USD Appreciation EUR Depreciation JPY (rhs) Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16.4 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 3 December 216
33 FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Slowdown in major credit aggregates General decline in lending rates and some upward movement in deposit rates Overall liquidity conditions remain adequate while levels have fallen
34 BROAD MONEY & CREDIT Monetary conditions remain favourable but credit growth slowing % Broad Money Domestic Credit Net Foreign Assets (RHS) % Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
35 DOMESTIC CREDIT Monetary conditions remain favourable but credit growth slowing % Domestic Credit Private Sector Credit Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
36 COMMERCIAL BANKS ASSETS & DEPOSITS, NOV Both assets and deposits growth have slowed over the year F$M 9. Total Assets Annual % Change (RHS) Percent 3. F$M Time Deposits Savings Deposits 9. Demand Deposits Annual % Change Percent Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16.. Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
37 COMMERCIAL BANKS OUTSTANDING LENDING, NOV Growth has been sluggish since January 216 F$M % , 45 Total Y-O-Y , F$M 6, 5, Whlsale, Retail, Hotels & Rest. Private Individuals Manufacturing Real & Estate Transport & Storage , 3, , 3, Building & Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Profl & Busnes Services Others 2, , 1, , From March 214 HFC lending is included in Commercial Banks lending Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
38 LCIs OUTSTANDING LENDING, NOV Mostly driven by lending to private individuals and transport & storage sectors F$M % 5 Total Y-O-Y F$M 5 4 Wholesale, Retail, Hotels & Restaurants Private Individuals Manufacturing Real & Estate Transport & Storage Building & Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Professional & Business Services Others From March 214 HFC lending is included in Commercial Banks lending. Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
39 INTEREST RATES Commercial Banks % Outstanding Lending Savings Deposit Time Deposit Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 % 16. Outstanding Lending Rate Time Deposit Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 % 1. New Lending New Time Deposit Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 LCIs % New Lending rate New Time Deposit Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
40 BANKS LIQUIDITY Liquidity has declined but remains ample F$M Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 As at 16 th January 217
41 MONETARY POLICY: RBF s TWIN OBJECTIVES Maintain foreign reserves at adequate levels Keep inflation low and stable
42 INFLATION : % 1. Monthly % Change Headline Inflation TC Winston *Others include Health, Communication. Furnishings, Hhld., Equip. Routine Hhld. maintenance, Recreation & Culture, Clothing & Footwear and Misc. Sources: Reserve Bank of Fiji and Fiji Bureau of Statistics
43 INFLATION Contribution to Inflation - December % 3.9% Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics Education Food & Nonalcoholic Beverages.1 Restaraunts & Hotels -.2 Others* -.6 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas & other Fuels *Others include Health, Communication. Furnishings, Hhld., Equip. Routine Hhld. maintenance, Recreation & Culture, Clothing & Footwear and Misc. Sources: Reserve Bank of Fiji and Fiji Bureau of Statistics
44 DOMESTIC FUEL PRICES $/litre/kg Gas Petrol Diesel Kerosene Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
45 INFLATION FORECAST 7. % Actual Outcomes (211 base) 217 Estimates based on Q4 216 data TC Winston Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics and Reserve Bank of Fiji
46 FOREIGN RESERVES F$M 2,5 Remain stable and adequate MORI 8. 2, Retained Imports Cover 1,922 1,96 1, ,5 1, Benchmark MORI Cover p 23/1 217f 1. Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
47 BALANCE OF RISKS Upside risks to global growth from both the US and China based on policy stimulus factors. Negative risks include inward-looking policies and protectionism, tighter in financial conditions, increased geopolitical tensions and severe China slowdown, sharp rise in commodity prices and currency changes. Domestically, downside risks from higher frequency of natural disasters and its impact on consumer/business confidence and other macro indicators. Progress of Government s structural reform agenda especially in the lead up to elections will continue to be monitored. Impact of risks on forecasts for reserves and inflation will be closely monitored.
48 SUMMARY The global outlook is for an improved 3.4 percent growth this year downside risks prevail 217 domestic growth forecast at 3.6 percent slight negative impact from TD4F Consumption and investment remain firm Labour market conditions are positive Liquidity conditions remain generally adequate while levels have declined Inflation is likely to rise slightly from the impact of the recent flooding before generally declining to around 2.5 percent by year end Foreign reserves are currently comfortable at $1,96 million (5.1 MORI) and expected to remain adequate in 217 Overall monetary and financial stability are expected to remain intact Macroeconomic policy remain supportive of the economic recovery and raising growth potential
49
Westpac Fiji ECONOMIC UPDATE. 03 November
Westpac Fiji ECONOMIC UPDATE 3 November Outline Global Economy Domestic Economy Overview of Fiji Economy Sectoral Performances Consumption & Investment Activities Fiscal Policy Trade & Foreign Exchange
More informationCURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Presentation to the FIA CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 5 October 2017 Global economic outlook Has improved Global Economy Consolidating Healthy Growth Trajectory Global growth (%) Source: 2017 July IMF World
More informationFIJI INSITITUTE OF ACCOUNTANTS SEMINAR FIJI: CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK. Ariff Ali Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji 18 September, 2018
FIJI INSITITUTE OF ACCOUNTANTS SEMINAR FIJI: CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK Ariff Ali Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji 18 September, 218 ROLE OF CENTRAL BANKS? Central Banking is a high impact organization.
More information2018 PACIFIC UPDATE FIJI: CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK
218 PACIFIC UPDATE FIJI: CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK Ariff Ali Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji 6 July, 218 FIJI ECONOMY How have we transformed since independence? 1977 Base 1995 Base 211 Base
More informationSada Reddy: Fiji s economy
Sada Reddy: Fiji s economy Presentation by Mr Sada Reddy, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji, to the FIJI NZ Business Council, Suva, 3 October 2008. * * * Outline The outline of my presentation
More informationFIJIAN ECONOMY RISKS AND CHALLENGES. FIA Workshop, June 2017 Esala Masitabua
FIJIAN ECONOMY RISKS AND CHALLENGES FIA Workshop, 23-24 June 217 Esala Masitabua BIG PICTURE RISKS CHALLENGES CONCLUDING REMARKS unprecedented period of growth % 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.9 Actual Forecast
More informationNauru. Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific Item
Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2018 1 POPULATION Total population a as of 1 July ( 000) 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.3 Population density (persons/km
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2017 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2016
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2016 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. July 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT July 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationEconomic & Financial Indicators. November Banco de Cabo Verde
Economic & Financial Indicators November Banco de Cabo Verde Monetary Policy Report BANCO DE CABO VERDE Department of Economic Studies and Statistics Avenida Amílcar Cabral, 27 CP 7600-101 - Praia - Cabo
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. January 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT January 2017 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth
1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. October 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT October 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. April 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT April 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS SEPTEMBER 0 Table of Contents 1. INFLATION... 2 2. MONEY, CREDIT AND INTEREST RATES... 6 3. REAL SECTOR INDICATORS... 9 4. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND EXTERNAL SECTOR INDICATORS...
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. January 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT January 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 22 nd November, 2017
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2017 Governor s Presentation to the Media 22 nd November, 2017 INTRODUCTION 2 The presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. December 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT December 20 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationInternational Monetary Fund Washington, D.C.
2005 International Monetary Fund September 2005 IMF Country Report No. 05/357 Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix This Statistical Appendix paper for Brunei Darussalam was prepared by a staff team
More informationInflation Update. Mild pick-up in inflation rates
December 8 Saudi CPI inflation Monthly change Annual change October 8 -.3. September 8 -.. Year-to-October average.3. Inflation rates in trade partners (latest) Kuwait Bahrain Oman Japan UAE S. Korea Euro
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/17 Key developments and outlook Economic growths in 2016 and 2017 remain close to the previous assessment. Better-than-expected merchandise exports and private consumption compensate for weaker-than-expected
More informationZambia s Economic Outlook
Zambia s Economic Outlook F R A N C I S C H I P I M O D I R E C T O R E C O N O M I C S B A N K O F Z A M B I A Z A M B I A I N V E S T M E N T C O N F E R E N C E N O V E M B E R 4, 2 0 1 5 L O N D O
More informationMonetary Policy Report
CENTRAL BANK OF THE GAMBIA Monetary Policy Report November 20 The Central Bank of The Gambia Monetary Policy Report provides summary of reports presented at the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting. It entails
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. December 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT December 201 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. November 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT November 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSolomon Islands. Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2018
1 POPULATION Total population a ( 000) 418.6 428.5 438.5 448.8 459.4 470.1 481.2 492.5 504.0 515.9 528.0 540.4 553.1 566.0 579.3 592.9 606.8 620.8 Population density (persons/km 2 ) 14 14 14 15 15 15 16
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. December 2014
SACU INFLATION REPORT December 2014 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2015
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2015 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA (CBL)
CENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA (CBL) MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW JULY. 2017 VOLUME 3 No. 7 The Monthly Economic Review is produced by the Bank s Research, Policy & Planning Department. Inquiries concerning this publication
More informationChina, People s Republic of
1 POPULATION Total population as of 31 December (million) 1,267.4 1,276.3 1,284.5 1,292.3 1,299.9 1,307.6 1,314.5 1,321.3 1,328.0 1,334.5 1,340.9 1,347.4 1,354.0 1,360.7 1,367.8 1,374.6 1,382.7 1,390.1
More informationAPPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure : Quarterly and annual GDP growth (percent growth) Appendix Figure : Contributions to GDP expenditures (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
More informationPrice and Inflation. Chapter-3. Global Inflation Scenario. Chart 3.1 National CPI inflation (12-month average : base FY06=100)
Global Inflation Scenario 3.1 Global inflation remained controlled in 1 while some commodity prices were still high. Decline in commodity prices, especially fuels and foods, has contributed to the decrease
More informationPrice and Inflation. Chapter-3. Global Inflation Scenario
Global Inflation Scenario. Higher energy prices lifted headline inflation rates in advanced, emerging market and developing economies in the first six months of. Core inflation (excluding food and energy
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationViet Nam. Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific Item
Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2018 1 POPULATION Total population as of 1 July (million) 77.11 78.12 79.08 80.00 80.95 81.91 82.85 84.22 85.12 86.03 86.93 87.84 88.81 89.76 90.73 91.71 92.69 93.67*
More information1.0 BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW
1.0 BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW April 2016 Contents 1.0 Inflation and Food Supply Situation... 1 1.1 Inflation Developments... 1 1.2 Food Supply Situation... 1 1.3 Prices of Food Crops...
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationMPC MARKET PERCEPTIONS SURVEY - MARCH
MPC MARKET PERCEPTIONS SURVEY - MARCH 2018 1 CONTENTS BACKGROUND......4 SURVEY METHODOLOGY......4 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SURVEY.........4 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS....5 EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS...6 PRIVATE SECTOR
More informationInflation Remains Tepid in November at 0.2% as Transport Cost Trending Downward
19 December 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW November 2018 Consumer Price Index Inflation Remains Tepid in November at 0.2% as Transport Cost Trending Downward Headline inflation back to near 4-year low. Consumer
More information4. Economic Outlook. ASSUMPTIONS AND SCENARIOS Condition of the International Economy World economic growth is predicted. to remain strong in 2007,
Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2007 4. Economic Outlook Overall, the accelerated pace of economic growth of 2007-2008 is predicted to carry forward, being accompanied by sustained macroeconomic stability.
More informationMACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT OCTOBER 2018 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT www.finance.go.ug TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES... ii LIST OF FIGURES...
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationKINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
1 June 2017 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2017 Malaysia Economy Riding High in 1Q17 Leading index recorded the highest in two years. In March 2017, leading index grew by 1.8%yoy, the highest since March
More informationQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW (QER)
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW (QER) Volume 2 No 4 January - March 2018 OBJECTIVES OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF KENYA The principal objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) as established in the CBK Act are:
More informationThe Thai economy is viewed to moderate from last assessment from the intensified impact of the euro area s crisis on merchandise exports, which, in
1 I. Economic and inflation outlook II. Monetary policy stances going forward 2 I. Economic and inflation outlook II. Monetary policy stances going forward 3 The Thai economy is viewed to moderate from
More informationANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN 2015
ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN C O N T E N T S Introduction Growth of the Global Economy Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates Macro - Economic Growth in the Emirate of Ajman Gross Domestic Product
More informationTrade Balance (LHS) Exports (RHS) Imports (RHS)
14,000 RM Million % change y-o-y 50.0 12,000 40.0 10,000 30.0 8,000 20.0 6,000 10.0 4,000 0.0 2,000 (10.0) 0 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/22 Key developments and outlook Economic growth projection is revised up from a stronger recovery of exports. Meanwhile, government spending remains an important growth driver. Private spending gradually
More informationAsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS
AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR FIRST QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th May, 2018
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR FIRST QUARTER 2018 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th May, 2018 INTRODUCTION 2 The presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary Policy
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS JULY Table of Contents 1. INFLATION... 2 2. MONEY, CREDIT AND INTEREST RATES... 6 3. REAL SECTOR INDICATORS... 9 4. BALANCE OF PAYMENT AND EXTERNAL SECTOR INDICATORS... 10 5.
More informationCONTENTS COMMENTARY CHARTS TABLES GLOSSARY. Section 1: Headline Inflation Section 2: Core Inflation
COMMENTARY CONTENTS Section 1: Headline Inflation Section 2: Core Inflation CHARTS 1. National Rates of Inflation, January 2010 April 2013 2. Monthly Changes in the Cost-of-Living Index, January 2010 April
More informationEconomic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015
Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5
More informationconsidered by the MPC 2. Key developments to monitor for monetary policy going forward considered by the MPC 2. Key developments to monitor for
1. Economic and inflation outlook considered by the MPC. Key developments to monitor for monetary policy going forward 1 1. Economic and inflation outlook considered by the MPC. Key developments to monitor
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More information2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW
2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW MAY 2017 0 P a g e Overview The performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2017 was on a positive trajectory with annual growth projected to be about 3.9 % from
More informationQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW (QER)
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW (QER) Volume 2 No 5 April - June 2018 OBJECTIVES OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF KENYA The principal objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) as established in the CBK Act are: 1)
More information1 RED September/October 2018 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2018
1 RED September/October 20 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 20 2 RED September/October 20 MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS The country s annual consumer inflation grew by 0.2 percentage points to reach 5.1 per cent in September 20,
More informationMonthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW
October 218 a BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW October 218 b October 218 October 218 i Contents 1. Inflation and Food Stocks... 1 1.1 Inflation Developments... 1 1.2 Food Stocks... 1 1.3 Prices
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationMonthly Report PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY SEPTEMBER 2017 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Monthly Report PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY SEPTEMBER 2017 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT www.finance.go.ug Table of Contents SUMMARY... 1 REAL SECTOR...
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More informationFiji. Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific Item
1 POPULATION Total population as of 1 July ( 000) 802.0 805.0 810.0 816.0 821.0 827.0 830.0 834.5 841.4 845.5 850.7 854.3 858.0 862.1 865.7 869.5 873.2 884.9 Population density (persons/km 2 ) 44 44 44
More informationHong Kong, China. Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2018
Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2018 1 POPULATION a Total population as of 1 July (million) 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 Population density b (persons/km
More informationSri Lanka: Recent Economic Trends. January 2018
Sri Lanka: Recent Economic Trends January 2018 1 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 2 2 Agenda Summary
More informationGUATEMALA. 1. General trends
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2016 1 GUATEMALA 1. General trends In 2015, Guatemala s GDP grew by 4.1% in real terms (a figure similar to the 4.2% recorded the previous year), driven
More informationModerating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3%
12 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2018 Industrial Production Index Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% IPI meets market estimates. Malaysia s industrial production expands by 3%yoy
More information1.0 BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW
1.0 BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW October 2016 Contents 1.0 Inflation and Food Supply Situation... 1 1.1 Inflation Developments... 1 1.2 Food Supply Situation... 2 1.3 Prices of Food Crops...
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationPresentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya August 6, 2015 Outline 1. The Information basis for the MPC meeting 2.
More informationShort-term Inflation analysis and forecast. April 2018 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION
Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast April 2018 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION c 2018 Bank of Jamaica Nethersole Place Kingston Jamaica Telephone: (876) 922
More informationImproved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year
ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by
More informationVOLUME 21 - NO. 12 DECEMBER 2011
VOLUME 21 - NO. 12 DECEMBER 2011 CONTENTS Pages Figures 1-6 1 Monetary Aggregates 2 Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities 2 Commercial Banks Deposits and Loans 2 Interest Rates (Selected) 3 Securities
More informationThe national monthly CPI (2008=100) increased from per cent in September, 2017 to per cent
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) October, 2017: PRESS RELEASE Released on Monday November 21, 2017 at 1:00 pm OCTOBER 2017 MONTHLY INFLATION RATE INCREASES SLIGHTLY The national monthly CPI (2008=100) increased
More informationSaudi Chartbook. Summary. November Real Economy: Economic data for September showed a downward trend in economic activity.
Saudi Chartbook Summary Real Economy: Economic data for September showed a downward trend in economic activity. Government Finance: The net monthly change in government accounts with SAMA remained negative
More informationInflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model
Economic Institute Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Warsaw / 9 March Inflation projection of the NBP based on the NECMOD model Outline: Introduction Changes between
More informationMonthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006
Release Date: 30 May Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central Bank has decided
More informationSnapshot of SA Economy
Snapshot of SA Economy Kgotso Radira 1 September 29 Economic Outlook Global share indices 2 Indices 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 25 26 27 28 29 S&P 5 FTSE 1 DAX Nikkei 3 Global interest rates 7 % 6 5 4 3 2 1 1999
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW
October 217 a BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW October 217 b October 217 October 217 i Contents 1. Inflation and Food Stocks... 1 1.1 Inflation Developments... 1 1.2 Food Stocks... 1 1.3 Prices
More informationShort-term Inflation analysis and forecast. May 2018 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION
Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast May 2018 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION c 2018 Bank of Jamaica Nethersole Place Kingston Jamaica Telephone: (876) 922
More informationD R L I M C H E E H A N M R T I M N I K L A S S C H O E P P M S O N G WO O I L E N G ECONOMIC S T U D I E S
THE 2016 BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 28 NOV 2015 D R L I M C H E E H A N M R T I M N I K L A S S C H O E P P M S O N G WO O I L E N G ECONOMIC S T U D I E S Contents 1. General Information / Highlights
More informationIndian Economy. GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Manufacturing GVAbp
Indian Economy Economic Growth GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Domestic economy witnessed 7.1% GDP growth during the first quarter (Apr - Jun) of fiscal 2016-17 (Q1FY17) as
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA (CBL)
CENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA (CBL) MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW SEP. 2017 VOLUME 3 No. 9 The Monthly Economic Review is produced by the Bank s Research, Policy & Planning Department. Inquiries concerning this publication
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF SOLOMON ISLANDS
CENTRAL BANK OF SOLOMON ISLANDS MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT March 2018 P. O. Box 634, Honiara, Solomon Islands. Tel (+677) 21791 1 Table of Contents 1 Overview... 4 2 International Economic Developments...
More information2.1 Supply. Bank of Thailand, January Nominal Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Bank of Thailand, uary 2.1 Supply Farm income continually increased but concentrated in certain crops and regions. Service sector continued to expand, especially for tourism-related activities on the back
More information2.1 Supply. Nominal Farm Income. Economic and Monetary Conditions, June Real Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2.1 Supply Farm income expanded from the same period last year as supported mainly by increased agricultural production, while agricultural prices continued to contract
More informationEconomic Outlook
2018 2019 Economic Outlook Published by: Department of Finance Province of New Brunswick P.O. Box 6000 Fredericton, New Brunswick E3B 5H1 Canada Internet: www.gnb.ca/finance Tuesday, January 30, 2018 Cover:
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationPPI Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price
31 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW June 2018 Producer Price Index Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price grew for the first time in 2018. Malaysia s producer prices increased by 0.1%yoy in
More informationEconomic Monthly ASEAN & India
Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE APRIL 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON APRIL 8) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member
More informationPERFORMANCE OF ECONOMY REPORT December 2017
PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMY REPORT December 2017 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT www.finance.go.ug TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS... 3 HIGHLIGHTS...
More informationKBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016
KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January
More informationGlobal/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June
Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
More informationKGkh BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW
KGkh BANK OF TANZANIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW June 218 Contents 1. Inflation and Food Stocks... 1 1.1 Inflation Developments... 1 1.2 Food Stocks... 1 1.3 Prices of Food Crops... 2 2. Monetary and Financial
More informationVOLUME 21 - NO. 11 NOVEMBER 2011
VOLUME 21 - NO. 11 NOVEMBER 2011 CONTENTS Pages Figures 1-6 1 Monetary Aggregates 2 Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities 2 Commercial Banks Deposits and Loans 2 Interest Rates (Selected) 3 Securities
More information