Monetary Policy Information Compendium

Transcription

1 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Consolidated by Statistics & DWH Department STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN

2 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Tables and Graphs Real Sector Growth... Saving and Investment Inflation.. External Sector Balance of Payments... 8 Trade and Foreign Investment 9 Global Economy. Fiscal Accounts and Debt Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances.. 2 Government Domestic Debt... External Debt... Total Debt... 5 Monetary Sector Monetary and Credit Aggregates.. 6 Private Sector Credit... 8 Key Indicators of Monetary Sector 9 Trends In Monetary Aggregates.. 2 Financial Markets Money Market... 2 Foreign Exchange Market 27 Capital Market Financial Soundness Indicators II

3 Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector () Groups Monetary Policy Information Compendium Weights YoY Change(Apr) Growth 2-months MA change Overall Textile Food, beverages and tobacco Petroleum products Iron and steel products Non-metallic mineral products Automobile Fertilizer Pharmaceuticals Paper and board Electronics Chemicals Leather products Wood products Engineering products Rubber products MA=Moving Average: These changes are calculated on the basis of 2 month average of LSM index over the 2 month average of preceding year Cumulative change during (Jul-Apr) FY6 July 28 Overall LSM Index Overall LSM Growth (YoY and Cumulative) Index YoY -YoY - Cummulative -Cummulative Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Major Crops Production Area under cultivation Yield (million tons) change (million hectares) change (Kg/hectare) Over FY9 T FY6 Over Cotton Sugarcane ,768 6,972 Rice ,567 2,5 Wheat ,99 2,97 2 Cotton production is stated in million bales of 75 lbs each. change Over T : Target Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Planning Commission of Pakistan. Real Sector

4 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Production Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 25-6 () Agriculture of which Important crops Other crops Livestock P Growth Growth Share Contribution 2 FY Industry of which Manufacturing Large-scale Small-scale Construction Services of which Wholesale & retail trade Transport Storage and Communications Finance & insurance General Government Services Real GDP (basic prices) Real GDP (market prices) P R FY6 Real GDP (bp, ) 2,9,7,7 Nominal GDP (mp, ),96,96 29,76 Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$) Expenditure Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 25-6 () Consumption Private Government Fixed capital formation Private Public plus general government Changes in stocks Net exports of goods and nonfactor services Exports of goods and non-factor services Imports of goods and non-factor services GDP (market prices) Indirect Taxes Subsidies GDP (basic prices) P Growth Growth Share Contribution FY Growth in Real GDP at basic price () Actual Target FY FY FY5 FY6 R P FY9 T Growth in Agriculture () Actual Target FY FY FY5 FY6 R P FY9 T Growth in Industry () Actual Target FY FY FY5 FY6 R P FY9 T Growth in Services () Actual Target FY FY FY5 FY6 R P FY9 T Total domestic demand GDP in dollar terms is calculated using weighted average exchange rate during the year. 2 Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation and change in stock expenditures on real GDP. Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies. T : Target Real Sector 2

5 Saving and Investment (at current market prices) as of GDP Monetary Policy Information Compendium FY9 Target Saving and Investment Actual P R FY6 A. Investment Gross fixed investment Private sector Public Sector incl. general governmen Change in capital stocks B. National savings C. Domestic savings Saving investment gap (B - A) of GDP Trends in Saving and Investment Investment Savings FY FY5 FY6 R P FY9 T July 28 Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors (at Current Market prices) P Percent of GDP Percent Percent of GDP share in total FY6 Agriculture Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Construction Electricity and gas Transport and communication Wholesale and retail trade Finance and insurance Ownership of dwellings Services Total.9... as of GDP Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors Agriculture Manufacturing Ownership of Dwellings Services Others FY FY FY5 FY6 R P Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available. P : Provisional; R : Revised; Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan. Real Sector

6 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Inflation (Calculated from price indices with base year 27-8) Consumer Price Index (CPI) ( change) MoM MoM SA 2 YoY average 2M moving year average for June Jun-6 Year on Year CPI Inflation 2 Month Moving Average July 28 CPI - Food (7.8 % weight in basket) ( change) year average for June Jun-6 CPI Food Inflation YoY 2 month moving average CPI - Non Food (62.52 % weight in basket) year average for June Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Month-on-Month; 2 Month-on-month changes in seasonally adjusted series; Year-on-Year; These changes are calculated on the basis of 2 month average of CPI over the 2 month average of preceding year. ( change) Jun-6 YoY CPI Non-Food Inflation 2 months moving average Real Sector

7 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Core Inflation - Non-food non-energy (5.52% weight in basket) ( change) 2M moving MoM YoY average year average for June Jun-6 Core Inflation- Non-Food Non-Energy YoY 2 month moving average July 28 Core - 2% Trimmed ( change) year average for June Jun-6 Core Inflation- 2% Trimmed Mean YoY 2 month moving average Wholesale Price Index (WPI) ( change) MoM MoM SA YoY 2M moving average year average for June Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP Jun-6 YoY WPI Inflation 2 months moving average Real Sector 5

8 Monetary Policy Information Compendium WPI -Food (8.82% weight in basket) ( change) MoM MoM SA YoY 2M moving average year average for June Jun-6 YoY WPI Inflation - Food 2 month moving average July 28 WPI - Non Food (6.8% weight in basket) ( change) YoY WPI Inflation - Non Food 2 months moving average year average for June Jun-6 Average CPI and WPI Inflation ( change) CPI WPI Headline Food Non Food 5 Target vs. Actual CPI Inflation Actual Target FY FY FY FY Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP FY FY FY5 FY6 FY9 Real Sector 6

9 Group-Wise CPI Inflation Groups Monetary Policy Information Compendium CPI and SPI Inflation by Groups Weights MoM YoY 2m MA MoM YoY 2m MA July 28 I. Food group Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Restaurant & hotels II. Non-food group Clothing and footwear Housing, water, electricity, gas fuels Furnishing & household equipment maintenance etc Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Miscellaneous Overall Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) ( change) Income groups Jul-8 WoW 2 MoM YoY 2m MA Up to Rs Rs Rs Rs Above Rs All SPI Inflation-Weekly SPI Inflation-Monthly YoY 52 Week moving average YoY 2 Month moving average Jun Jul-8 Twelve month moving average inflation 2 WoW: Week on Week. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Real Sector 7

10 Balance of Payments Summary (million US$) Items A) Current account balance (CAB) Monetary Policy Information Compendium FY6-5,96 -, -2,62 -,867 Trade balance -27,987-2,525-26,75-9,9 Exports 22,775 2,2 2,996 2,965 Imports 5,762,67 8,75,55 Services (net); of which -,68 -,795 -,27 -,2 CSF Income (net) -,8 -,55-5,66-5, Current transfers (net); of which 2,5 2,7 2,6 2,69 Remittances 8, 7,5 9,5 9,97 B) Capital and financial (C&F) account balance ; of which 9,929 9,596,57 7,6 Foreign direct investment (net) 2,69 2,7 2,66 2,286 Foreign portfolio investment (net) 2, Other investment assets ,8-96 Other investment liabilities Of which : General government of which: Disbursements Amortization,99 6,2 8,965 5,29,622 2,965 5,,5 7,92 6,6 9, 6,59,87,66,7 2,7 C) Net Errors and omissions Overall balance (A+B+C) -6,89 -,675 -,96 2,652 SBP gross reserves 2,26 7,8 7,55 9,6 SBP net liquid reserves 9,58 6,5 6, 8, As of GDP Jul-May Balance of Payments Current account balance; of which Exports Imports Capital and financial inflows; of which FY FY FY5 FY6 FY 7 R FDI Net FDI equals direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad. 2 SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but it excludes unsettled claims on RBI. SBP reserves without CRR and foreign currency cash holding of SBP. For revised and for provisional GDP has been used and average exchange rate has been used to calculate GDP in US$ Current, Capital and Financial Balance (Billion US$) C & F account balance CAB Overall balance May-6 Jun-6 Current Account Balance (Billion US$) Current account balance As of GDP (RHS) FY FY FY5 FY6 FY 7 R Capital and Financial Account Balance (Billion US$) Capital and financial account As of GDP (RHS) July Workers' Remittances 5 (million US$) Jul-May YoY growth Jul-May Share Jul- May FY6 Total inflows 8, 7,5.. 9,5 9,97 USA 2,65 2, ,5 2,525 UK 2,58 2, ,2 2,58 Saudi Arabia,522 5, ,7 5,968 UAE,99, ,28,65 Other GCC 6,995 2, ,25 2,2 All others 2,58 2, , 2,56 5 Only cash, 6 Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman Jul Workers' Remittances (Billion US$) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. External Sector 8

11 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Trade in Goods -Major Groups (million US$) Jul-May Share Jul-May FY6. Exports 22,775 2,2 2,996 2, Textile group 2,2,8 5 2,57 2, Knitwear, bed wear,5,8 2,9,6 -.5 Cotton cloth,987, ,2 2,2-2. Cotton Yarn,2, 5,, Readymade garments 2,28 2,87 2,279 2,56 -. Other manufactures group,797, 7,659, Chemical and pharma,,5 6,,52 Leather items Cement Engineering goods Jewellery Food group,25,2 9,68,722 Rice,87,5 8,575,85 All others 2,2 2,85 2,26,682 Imports 5,762,67 8,75,55 Petroleum group 2,2 9,87 2,67 8,6 Petroleum products 6,86 5,69 6,8 5,98 Petroleum crude,85 2,5 8 2,765 2,57 Machinery group 7,976 6,69 6 7, 7,97 Telecom,292 99,2,2 Electrical machinery,696,2,7,65 Power machinery,,25,7,56 Agriculture & other chemicals group 7,575 6,65 5 7,2 6,75 Plastic materials 2,,76,875,79 Fertilizer manufactured Food group 5,29,988 5,7,6 Palm oil,75,6,775,6 Tea Metal group,25,6 9,67,66 Iron steel (IS) and IS scrap,59 2, ,99 2,9 All others,626 2,72 27,52,92 Trade Balance -27,987-2,525-26,75-9,9 Share (in ) is calculated as a ratio of cumulative flow of a group (item) to cumulative flow of total exports/imports during Jul-May. 2 Includes tanned and manufactured leather. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (million US$) Jul-May YoY growth FY6 Jul-May Net Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan (Million US$) Net inflows: Of which 2,76 2, ,77 2,5 8 Selected Countries USA UAE UK China 26,5 99, ,22 52,6 Selected Sectors Communication Financial businesses Oil and gas exploration Power ,59 Trade Memorandum Item: Net overall FDI Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. These numbers correspond to net FDI flows given in the balance of payments table and adjusted for net FDI made by Pakistanis abroad. Trade and Foreign Investment May-6 May-6 Jul Export reciepts Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Import payments Trade Balance (Billion US$) Oct Exports (Billion US$) Oct Nov YoY growth (RHS, in ) Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Imports (Billion US$) Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May YoY growth (RHS, in ) May Jun Jun July External Sector 9

12 Policy Rates in Major Economies Major economies Monetary Policy Information Compendium Policy rate Current w.e.f Global Economy Previous policy rate USA 2. -Jun UK.5 2-Nov Euro zone. 6-Mar Japan. -Feb Change (bps) Policy Rates USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka 9 Jul-8 July 28 Canada.25 7-Jan Source: Central bank websites Australia.5 2-Aug China.5 26-Oct India Jun GDP Growth Rate USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 8.5 -Apr Malaysia Jan Indonesia Jun Thailand.5 29-Apr Q-7 Q2-7 Source: Central bank websites Q-7 Q-7 Q-8 Key Macroeconomic Indicators Inflation (YoY) GDP growth 2 Q-28 USA UK Euro zone Japan Australia China India Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Current account balance Fiscal balance Reserves5 Lending rates 6 (billion US$) as a of GDP Nominal Real Values of Inflation pertains to June, 28 except USA, UK, Japan, India and Malaysia pertains to May, 28; and Australia pertains to March, 28; 2 Annual GDP growth, measured as a age change over the same quarter of previous year; Latest 2 months; The Economist, Economic and Financial indicators, July 7, 28; 5 IMF (IFS) Reserve position data pertains to May, 28 except Indonesia which pertain to April, 28; 6 IMF (IFS) lending rates data for China pertains to May, 28; Euro Zone, India, South Korea and Thailand pertains to April, 28; Indonesia pertains to March, 28; Australia pertains to January, 28; Sri Lanka and Malaysia pertains to October, 27; USA pertains to April, 27; Japan pertains to February, 27, and UK pertains to May, World Economic Outlook - Real GDP Growth 27 (IMF estimates) 28 Projections IMF World Bank OECD World output Advanced US Euro area Japan UK Emerging & Developing Russia China India ASEAN CPI Inflation USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka Jun-6 Source: Central bank websites Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and Central Bank Websites. External Sector

13 World Commodity Price Indices (2=) Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Percent change since End June - 7 Energy index Non-Energy Index Food Index Metal price index Trends in Commodity Price Indices (2=) Energy Metal Food Crude oil price ($/bbl) * Cotton spot (US cents/ pound) * Palm oil ($/m. ton) Soya bean Oil ($/m. ton) Wheat ($/m. ton) Gold spot ($/Oz) * Sugar (US $/kg)^ Sources: Bloomberg for Crude oil price (Saudi Arabian Light), Cotton Spot and Gold spot. World Bank for all other items. ^The measurement unit differs in Sugar which was reported in (US cents/pound) in IMF dataset whereas, it is expressed in US $/kg in data reported by World Bank. Therefore, a conversion has been used ( US$ / kilogram = U.S. cents / pound). Data for world commodity prices/indices pertain to May, 28 except wheat which pertains to April, 28. * Average during the current month upto July, 28. The age changes have been calculated by taking average prices of current month with the previous month and end June-28 prices. Capital Market Indices Jul-8 Percent change since US (DJIA) DJ EURO STOXX UK (FTSE ) Japan (Nikkei 225) China (SSEA) France (CAC ) US$ per barrel May-6 Jun-6 Source: World Bank Daily Saudi Arabian Oil Prices and Int. Gold Prices US cents per pound Saudi Arabian Light Jul-8 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till July, 28) Jul-8 Source : Bloomberg (Updated till July 28) Daily International Cotton Prices Gold Spot (RHS) 2 US$ per ounce Germany (DAX) India (BSE) World dev'd (MSCI) Emerging Markets (MSCI) World all (MSCI) Updated till July, Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond 2 5-Year (29) -Year (22) -Year (26) 2 5 Yr Bond = $ M (Coupon rate = 7.25%): Issued - April 8, 2: Maturity -April 5, 29 Yr Bond = $ M (Coupon rate = 8.25%): Issued - April 8, 2: Maturity - April 5, 22 Yr Bond = $ M (Coupon rate = 7.875%): Issued - Mar 2, 26: Maturity -Mar 2, Source: Bloomberg (Updated till July, 28) Jul-8 Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, OECD, The Economist and Central Bank Websites External Sector

14 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Revenues, Expenditures and Fiscal Balances Revenues () FY9 Jul-Mar BE RE 2 Total revenues 6,28,65,6 5,89 Tax revenue 5,27,76 2,69,526 Growth (YoY) % of which: FBR revenues,5 2,628 2,26,95 Non-tax revenues Growth (YoY) % Expenditures () FY9 Jul-Mar BE RE 2 Total expenditures 8,8 5,,8 7,95 Current 6,,75,65 5,7 Growth (YoY) % of which: Interest payments,62,7,9,526 Defence, Development Expenditure & net lending,8,52 77,685 Growth (YoY) % Unidentified Expenditure Overall Balance () FY9 Jul-Mar BE RE 2 Fiscal balance -,89 -,8 -,28 -,97 Revenue balance Primary balance As of GDP 6 Fiscal balance Revenue balance Primary balance , 6, 5,,, 2,, Revenues (billion Rupees) Non-tax Tax Total revenue as % of GDP (RHS) 7 FY 29% 7% 77% 82% 8% 82% 85% FY5 2% FY6 8% 2% R.E 8% FY9 B.E 5% 6 Expenditures (billion Rupees) Development Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS) 9, 22 8, 7, 6, 5,,, 2,, FY 2% 2% 76% 8% 79% FY5 FY6 2% 2% % 77% 78% 6 R.E 2% FY9 B.E 22% Financing of Fiscal Deficit () FY9 BE Financing,89,8,28,97. External Domestic 8 : of which,58 957,8,98 Jul-Mar RE 2 Non-bank Banking system: of which, SBP - 2, Scheduled banks,5 -, Privatization proceeds ,2 -,5 -,8-2, Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees) Primary Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS) FY FY5 FY6 R.E FY9 B.E FBR Tax Collection 9 () Direct Sales Customs FED Total taxes Q Q Q Q ,,, ,6 Q Q Q P,9,5 9 2,628 Budget Estimates; 2 Revised Estimates; Estimated from Budget in Brief 28-9, MoF; In Fiscal Accounts, these expenditures are named as 'Statistical Discrepancy'; Fiscal balance = total revenue - total expenditure; 5 Revenue balance = total revenue - current expenditure; 6 Primary balance = total revenue - total expenditure + interest payment; 7 GDP(mp) on new basis (25-26) has been used to calculate deficit to GDP ratios; 8 It includes the amount of Privatization Proceeds; 9 as reported in fiscal accounts; Federal excise duty; P Provisional % 8% 6% % 2% % Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit Privatization proceeds Domestic banking system Domestic non-bank External 2% % FY % 7% FY5 6% 25% 2% FY6 58% % 27% 56% 5% % 2% 29% 7% R.E FY9 B.E 5% 28% 8% Fiscal Accounts and Debt 2

15 Debt by Owner - end period stocks () Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28.Bank,5 9,99,2,76 Commercial banks 6,69 7,8 -, SBP,882 2,72 2, Non-bank 5,9,95 55 National saving schemes (NSS),67,2 8 6 Others,78, Foreign currency instruments 5 5 Total(+2+) 6,6,89,597,9 Debt by Type - end period stocks () P P Jul-May Change during.permanent debt,626 5, PIBs,9, Prize bonds Others Floating debt 8,96 6,55 2,9,866 Bai Muajjal -2 MTBs,8,82 -,2 MRTBs-replenishment,879 2,69 2, 868.Unfunded debt 5 : of which 2,855 2, Saving schemes 2,79 2, Foreign currency instruments 5 5 Total(+2++) 6,6,89,597,9 Government domestic liabilities Includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs and special USD bonds held by the residents. Includes Outright Sale of MRTBs, if any. 5 Includes funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds. 6 This reflects provincial governments borrowings from banks for commodity operations. Government Domestic Debt P P Jul-May Change during 2 Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk Years. Includes Rs.. billion of Treasury Bills on Tap % % % % 2% 2% 2% 2% % % 2% 2% 2% 2% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 8% 5% 5% 5% Source: SBP, CDNS Source: SBP Source: SBP Stock of Debt (by Owner) Scheduled banks SBP NSS Others 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% FY % 22% 29% 9% 8% 5% % 5% % 9% 9% 5% 6% 7% 6% 7% % % 28% Stock of Debt (by Type) Unfunded Floating Permanent 56% 6% % 5% 5% Interest Payments by Type of Debt Permanent Floating Unfunded % 7% 2% 22% 9% 6% 7% % 6% 26% 2% 2% 2% FY2 FY FY FY5 FY6 Debt Servicing () Jul-May P Permanent Floating Unfunded Total Indicators of Domestic Debt Sustainability Percent change over Source: SBP, MoF Stock of Domestic Debt (as of GDP) Jun-2 Jun- Jun- Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun- Jun- Jun-5 Jun-6 Debt stock as of GDP Debt servicing as of FY FY FY5 FY6 GDP Total revenue Tax revenue Total expenditure Current expenditure Includes prize bonds; P : Provisional Debt Servicing (as of) Total revenue Total expenditure GDP (RHS) FY2 FY FY FY5 FY6 Source: SBP, MoF 5 2 Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF). Fiscal Accounts and Debt

16 Debt & Liabilities - end period stocks (million US$) Items Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 P External Debt Change during Jul- Mar- Debt Servicing (million US$). Public debt (a+b+c) 7,2 66, 6,97. Public debt (a+b+c), 5,75 a) Government debt 62,97 56, 6,58 a) Government debt 2,987,9 i)long term (> year) 6,22 55,57 5,87 Principal 2,5,7 Paris club 2,9,97 66 Interest 92,69 Multilateral 28,9 27, b) To IMF 8 86 Other bilateral 7,8 5,82,59 Principal Euro/Sukuk global bonds 7,,8 2,5 Interest Military debt c) Foreign exchange liabilities 6 87 Commercial loans/credits 5,687, Principal Local currency Securities (PIBs) Interest 6 87 Saudi fund for development (SFD) PSEs guaranteed debt 2 9 SAFE China deposits 5 5 Principal NBP/BOC deposits Interest 5 8 ii) Short term (< year), PSEs non-guaranteed debt 8 2 Of which: Multilateral, Principal b) From IMF 6, 6,9 2 Interest 7 i) Federal government. Scheduled banks' borrowing ii) Central bank 6, 6,9 2 Principal c) Foreign exchange liabilities (FEL) 2,7,56 75 Interest 2.Public sector enterprises(pses) 2,7 2, Private guaranteed debt a) Guaranteed debt,2, Private non-guaranteed debt 57 b) Non-guaranteed debt,9,55-67 Principal 9 7.Scheduled banks,66,52 9 Interest 2 57 a)borrowing,8, Private non-guaranteed bonds i) Long term (> year) Principal ii) Short term (< year),5,28 7 Interest Total Long term external debt b)non-resident deposits (LCY & FCY),25,22 5 servicing ( ),86 5,97. Private sector 7,65 6,6, Principal 2,5,9 a)guaranteed debt Interest,,5 b)non-guaranteed debt 7,65 6,6, Memorandum Items Short term debt servicing-principal i)loans 6,66 5,62,7 (excluding item No. below),5 2,8 ii)private non-guaranteed bonds 2 2. Government debt 76,9 iii)trade credit and others liabilities 97, PSEs non-guaranteed debt 5.Debt liabilities to direct investors-intercompany debt,79, 296. Scheduled banks' borrowing 6,89 82,68 Total external debt (excl. FEL) 88,2 79,867 8,5 Net flows 5 7,692 Items Jul-Mar- P Total external debt & liabilities (+2+++5) 9,76 8, 8,. Private non-guaranteed debt Indicators of External Debt Sustainability End period debt stock as of External debt servicing 6 as of Jun-2 Jun- Jun- Jun-5 Jun-6 P FY2 FY FY FY5 FY6 P GDP Reserves Exports Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$) Debt Foreign exchange liabilities Jun-2 Jun- Jun- Jun-5 Jun-6 Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP External Debt Servicing (billion US$)* PSEs debt** Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt FY2 FY FY FY5 FY6 *Only Long term debt servicing included. **PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt. Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP R: Revised; P: Provisional ; External debt data format has been changed, as SBP enhances coverage & quality of external debt statistics by adopting Special Data Dissemination Standard, for more details visit 2 Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL; Only long term debt servicing included. As per the guidelines available in IMF's External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term repayment of principle has been reported as Memorandum Items; 5 Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (-) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period. 6 Only long term debt servicing included from FY and onwards. Sources: Economic Affairs Division and SBP(S&DWH) Fiscal Accounts and Debt

17 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Total Debt Total Debt Stock () P Jun-6 Jun-5 Jun- Change during Jul-Mar Share in Mar- () I. Government domestic debt 6,7,89,626 2,9,97, II. Government external debt 7,27 5,99 5,8,77,786, III. Debt from IMF IV. External liabilities V. Private sector external debt,6, VI. PSEs external debt VII. PSEs domestic debt VIII. Commodity operations IX. Intercompany External Debt from Direct Investor abroad Total debt & liabilities (I to IX) 28,297 25,9 22,577 9,89 8,2,88. Gross Public Debt (I to III) 2,76 2,9 9,677 7,8 5,99 2, Total Debt of the Government - FRDLA Definition 22,6 9,65 7,82 5,986,62 2,2 78. Total external debt & liabilities (II to VI &+ IX),599 8,75 7,77 6,6 6,9, Commodity operations & PSEs debt (VI to VIII),9,79,99,276, Total Debt Servicing () Jul-Mar- P FY6 FY5 FY Share in Jul- Mar () Share in () Total Debt Servicing(A+B) A. Total interest payment on debt and liabilities (I+II) I. Interest payment on debt (a+b) a. Domestic debt b. External debt II. Interest payment on liabilities (a+b) a. Domestic liabilities b. External liabilities B. Principal repayment of external debt and liabilities Debt stock (as of GDP) P Jun-6 Jun-5 Jun- Total debt and liabilities Gross Public Debt Total Debt of the Government - FRDLA Definition Total external debt and liabilities Government domestic debt Commodity Operation and PSEs Debt Debt Servicing (as of) P FY6 FY5 FY FY GDP Total revenue Tax revenue Total expenditure Current expenditure Debt Stock () Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt Total debt & liabilities Gross public debt Jun-2 Jun- Jun- Jun-5 Jun Debt Stock (as of GDP) Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt Total debt & liabilities Gross public debt Jun-2 Jun- Jun- Jun-5 Jun-6 Note: R: Revised; P: Provisional; External liabilities include Central bank deposits, SWAPS, Allocation of SDR and Non resident LCY deposits with central bank; 2 Includes borrowings from banks by provincial governments and PSEs for commodity operations; As per Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 25 (FRDLA) amended in June 27, "Total Debt of the Government" means the debt of the government (including the Federal Government and the Provincial Governments) serviced out of the consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) less accumulated deposits of the Federal and Provincial Governments with the banking system.; This is excluding short term debt repayment. Source: CDNS, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs Division and SBP Fiscal Accounts and Debt 5

18 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Monetary and Credit Aggregates Monetary Assets of the Banking System End June 27 stocks R () Cumulative flows since end-june Latest week 29- A year ago - Monetary Assets (M2) - Cumulative Flows since end June 2,,5 NFA NDA, ,6.8 2,6.6 Net government borrowings: of which 8,955.6,95.5,6. Net budgetary borrowing 8,282.,62.,87. Commodity operations Non-government borrowings: of which 6,., Private sector 5, PSEs Other items (net) M2,58.9,5.,756. Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System () Currency in circulation, Total deposits with banks,66.9,9.2,7.6 Demand deposits with banks 9, ,8. Time deposits with banks RFCDs with banks M2,58.9,5.,756. Monetary Assets of the Banking System 29- ( growth) - NFA NDA Government borrowings Budgetary borrowing Commodity operations Non-government sector borrowings Private sector PSEs Other items (Net) M2.6.7 Memorandum Items Latest week Since end June 29- A year ago - Money multiplier 2.9. Currency to deposit ratio () M2 to GDP ratio () Private sector credit to GDP ratio () R ; Revised (All weekly numbers are provisional); Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP, Weeks Net Foreign Assets - Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Net Domestic Assets(NDA) - Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Private Sector Credit - Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Monetary Sector 6

19 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Monetary Assets of SBP End June 27 stocks () Cumulative flows since end-june Latest week A year ago NFA NDA: of which,9.,9.,98. Budgetary borrowing 2,5., Other items (net), Net impact of OMOs/discounting, Reserve money, Monetary Liabilities of SBP () Cumulative flows End June 27 since end-june stocks Latest week A year ago Currency in circulation, Cash in tills Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) Other deposits with SBP ( growth) NFA of the SBP NDA of the SBP: of which Budgetary borrowing Reserve money Reserve Money - Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Banking System Deposits -Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Currency in Circulation - Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Details on Government Borrowing for Budgetary Support End June 27 stocks () Cumulative flows since end-june Latest week 29- A year ago - Budgetary borrowing 8,282.,62.,87. Federal government 9,72.,92.6,7.7 From SBP 2,.6,.7 7. SBP's holdings of MRTBs 2,68.9 2,7. 5. From scheduled banks (SBs) 6, Provincial governments From SBP From scheduled banks Memorandum Items Budgetary borrowing on cash basis 8,6.,67.9,6. SBP 2,299.6, Scheduled banks 5, Budgetary Borrowings - Cumulative Flows since end June Weeks Cumulative Budgetary Borrowings during SBs SBP Total budgetary borrowing Weeks Current overdraft ceilings for provinces are: Rs7.2 billion for Punjab; Rs5 billion for Sindh; Rs. billion for KPK; Rs7. billion for Baluchistan, Rs.5 billion for AJK. Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP Monetary Sector 7

20 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Private Sector Credit Credit to Private Sector Jul-May Jul-May Total credit to private sector 5, Loans to private sector businesses, By type Working capital: of which 2, Export finance Import finance Fixed investment, By Sectors: of which Agriculture Manufacturing: of which 2, Textiles Food producus & beverages Chemicals & products Non-metallic mineral products Wearing apparel, readymade gar Electricity, gas and water Construction Commerce and trade Transport, storage and comm Services: of which Real estate/renting & business acu Personal: of which Consumer financing Investment in securities and shares Others 2 : of which Non-bank finance companies From Weekly Monetary Survey's month end position. End June 27 stocks 2 This also includes credit to some Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Cumulative flows () Loans to Private Sector Businesses (Monthly Flows) FY Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows) FY6 Feb Mar Mar Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows) 6 FY Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Credit to NBFIs (Monthly Flows) Sep FY6 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Monetary Sector 8

21 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Key Indicators of Monetary Secuor As of GDP YoY growth (RHS) 5. Money Supply (M2) Reserve Money FY FY FY5 FY6 as % of. GDP YoY Growth FY7 FY8 FY9 FY FY FY FY FY FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System Private Sector Credit FY FY FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY FY FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth Currency in Circulation Total Deposits FY FY FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY FY FY5 FY6 as % of GDP YoY Growth YoY growth of end June Stocks Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Monetary Sector 9

22 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Trends in Monetary Aggregates YoY Growth 2 MMA Money Supply May-5 Jul Sep-5 Nov- Nov-5 Jan- Jan-6 Mar- Mar-6 May-6 May- July-6 Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-2 Mar-2 July-7 May-2 Jul-2 Sep-2 Nov-2 Reserve Money May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 July-6 July-7 Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 July-6 July-7 Credit to Private Sector May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 July-6 July-7 Currency in Circulation May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 July-6 July-7 Total Deposits May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 July-6 July-7 NDA to NFA Ratio May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 July-6 July Trend in Currency to Deposit Ratio and Money Multiplier Currency to deposit ratio (%) Money multiplier (RHS) May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May Month end stocks data has been used. YoY growth shows growth over same month last year. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Monetary Sector 2

23 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Money Market Policy Instruments () Current w.e.f Previous w.e.f Change SBP Target rate (Policy) SBP reverse repo rate SBP repo rate Bi-weekly average CRR on DL and TL < year 5. -Nov Oct-8 - Daily minimum CRR on DL and TL < year. 2-Oct-2. -Nov-8 - CRR on TL > year. -Aug Jul-6 - SLR on DL and TL < year 9. 2-May Jul-6 Islamic banks Jun- -5 SLR on TL > year. 8-Oct May Policy and Overnight Money Market Repo Rates SBP reverse repo rate SBP repo rate Weekly WA overnight repo rate SBP Target rate (Policy) Jul-8 Islamic banks. 8-Oct May-8-9 Basis points DL: Demand Liabilities; TL: Time Liabilities Weighted Average O/N Money Market Repo Rate During MP Period () Period started on Period ended on Jul-8 Policy rate WA O/N repo rate Standard deviation CoV Weekly Weighted Average O/N Repo Rate YTD: Year to date CoV (Coefficient of Variation) is a ratio and is unit free. coefficient of variation Volatility in Overnight Money Market Repo Rate during MP period Jul-8 * up to July, 28 Bi-weekly Cash Reserves Requirement (CRR) () Maintenance period ended as on Last MPS Cash required Cash maintained Excess cash reserves (per day) Bi-weekly CRR is the proportion of local currency time and demand liabilities (TDL) that scheduled banks are required to maintain with SBP in the form of cash on average during the reserve maintenance period. 5 As on Thursday preceding the last monetary policy decision. Change since Cash Reserves Requirement Amount as % of TDL (RHS) Jun in Overall Reserve Requirement () Maintenance period started as on 5-8- Required reserves for CRR for SLR Maintained Cash Cash in tills Balance with SBP Balance with NBP 6..9 Securities Others 7..5 Excess liquid assets Source: Off-site Supervision and Enforcement Department, SBP Change since Last MPS Banks' Holding of Excess Liquid Assets *up to Jul, 28 6 Data corresponds to the balances as on that date 7 Includes Section () deposits and share capital of MFBs. 8 Includes excess securities + cash and other assets maintained. 9 As on Friday preceding the last monetary policy decision Financial Markets 2

24 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Use of SBP's Standing Facilities SBP reverse repo SBP repo Amount Days Amount Days No. No Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q FY9 Q Updated up to July, 28 SBP Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Repo Reverse repo * up to Jul, 28 Jul-8,5.8,55. Q,9.,7. Q Q 96.,. Q,267.2,55.,228.7,6. Q,.9,2. Q2,5.5,627. Q, Q 8.,6. FY9 Q Excluding outright OMO transactions and corridor activity Updated up to Jul, 28 Outstanding Open Market Operations 2 (billion rupees) Average Outstanding OMOs Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP End-period Outstanding OMOs *Note: (+) amount means net injection (-) amount means net mop-up 2, 2,,8,5,2 9 6 Outstanding Open Market Operations* * updated up to Jul, (-) net mop-ups * black dots represent outright mop-up rates # up to Jul, 28 (+) net injections OMO Mop-up and Injection Rates* # Mop-up rate Injection rate Jul-8 Jul-8 Outright Open Market Operations (billion rupees) Open Market Operations for GoP Ijara Sukuk - Outright 5 (billion rupees) Net Sale Bai-Muajjal End-period Outstanding Purchases Ready Sales FY FY Q Q - - Q Q Q - - Q Q Q - - FY6 - - FY Q Q2 - - Q - - Q. 2.2 Q Q - - Q Q - - Q FY9 Q Updated up to Jul, 28 FY9 Q As per DMMD Circular No. 7 of 2 dated October 5, 2. 6 Updated up to Jul, 28 Financial Markets 22

25 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Tenors Current Pak Rupee Revaluation (PKRV) Rates (%) Change (in basis points) since Last MPS -Jul week week month month month month month year year year year year year year It is secondary market yield-to-maturity used by banks to revalue their holding of securities (i.e. mark to market). -Jul-8 Yield Curve 25-7D 5D M 2M M M 6M 9M 2M 2Y Y Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y Y 5Y 2Y Y Tenors Current Tenor-wise KIBOR (%) Change (in basis points) since Last MPS -Jul week week month month month month month year year Daily Movement in KIBOR -M 6-M 2-M Policy Rate * up to July, 28 Jul-8 Tenors Current KIBOR and PKRV Spread (basis points) Last MPS -Jul week 29-2-week month month month month month year year Sources: SBP and Financial Market Association of Pakistan Change since * up to July, 28 KIBOR and PKRV Spread Spread (RHS) 6-M KIBOR 6-M PKRV Jul bps Financial Markets 2

26 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Months Weighted average Lending and Deposit Rates ( per annum) WALR Incremental WADR Outstanding Spread (bps) WALR WADR Spread (bps) Weighted average rates on incremental (fresh) loans and deposits (including interbank and zero markup) during a month May-6 Banks' WALR and WADR (Incremental) Spread (RHS) Lending Deposit age points Months Real (based on 2-month MA inflation) 2 Real (based on YoY inflation) WALR WADR WALR WADR Sources: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP & Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Real Lending and Deposit Rates (Incremental) WALR WADR May-6 * Using YoY CPI Inflation. 2 Nominal rate less CPI inflation (2-month moving average). Nominal rate less CPI inflation (year on year). Financial Markets 2

27 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 Using YoY CPI inflation Real Interest Rates Using 2-month moving average CPI inflation SBP Policy Rate SBP Policy Rate 6. Headline Core (2% Trim) 6. Headline Core (2% Trim) Jun-6 6-M KIBOR Jun-6 Weighted Average Lending Rates (Incremental) May-6 Jun-6 6-M KIBOR Jun-6 Weighted Average Lending Rates (Incremental) May May-6 Weighted Average Deposit Rates (Incremental) ######### May-6 Weighted Average Deposit Rates (Incremental) Weighted average lending and deposit rates excluding transactions in the interbank and on zero markup. Sources: PBS and Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP Financial Markets 25

28 Monetary Policy Information Compendium July 28 FY/Q/ Settlement date Target Maturity Offered Accepted 2 Offered Accepted 2 Cut-off Offered Accepted 2 Cut-off Offered Accepted 2 Cut-off 7,2. 6,.7,57. 7,27.7 5,6.,69.8 -,.8 2,87.9 -, Q,5.,78. 2,967., , Q2,.,58.,67.5,29., Q 2,55. 2,522.2,25. 2,8.2,725., ,95., Q,9.,672. 2,29.7,86.9,59.8, ,925. 6,88. 2, , ,9.5 5,69.7 -,56., Q,9.,68.5,2.,22.7,5.9, Q2,6.,65.,59.2,75.5,226., Q 5,75. 5,59.2 5,9.,52.9 5,26.6, Q,5.,2. 6,5.8 5,29.7 6, , FY9 Q,5., Up till July, 28 TOTAL 2 The amount does not include the non-competitive bids. These amounts are raised from non-bank institutions and/or individuals at auctions weighted average rate. T-bill Auction ( (Realized value); rates in ) -Month Latest cut-off available 6-Month 2-Month Noncompetitive bids 2,,8,6,,2, T-Bill Auctions (accepted amount) -M 6-M 2-M Total Jul T-Bill Cut-off rate -M 6-M 2-M Policy rate Jul-8 PIB (Fixed Rate) Auction ( (Face value); rates in ) 5 -Year 5-Year -Year 2-Year Total Target PIB (Floating Rate) Auction ( (Face value) -Year Total Target Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q2 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q2 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Q Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Cut-off margin 6 5 Q 7 Offered Q 7 Offered Accepted Accepted.7.7 "-": Either no bid received or bids were rejected. 5 Excluding non-competitive bids and short-selling accommodation 6 Quarterly rate/ margin are for end-period. 7 Up till Jul, 28 -year Variable Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (; margin in bps) -year Fixed Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction () Target Total offered Total accepted Cut-off margin 8 Target Total offered Total Cut-off fixed accepted rental rate FY FY Q Q Q (5) Q Q Q Q Q Q FY9 Q This cut-off margin, with the benchmark of 6-Month MTB Auction Weighted Average Yield, is applicable FY9 Q to all accepted bids ; 9 Up till Jul, 28 DMMD Circular No. 2 of 26 dated February, 26 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP Fixed rental rate will be applicable to entire bids, and for the entire tenor of fixed rental rate ; 2 Up till Jul, 28 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP Financial Markets 26

29 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Foreign Exchange Market July 28 PKR against international currencies % App / (Dep) of PKR Latest Last MPS Jul -Jul FY Daily Movement of PKR against USD (Rs/USD) USD (.) (.5) Euro (.) (.2) Sterling (.67).2 JPY USD Kerb (.) 6 96 Jul-8 Updated till July, 28 Premium (Rs) Daily NEER (.) (.6) Source: SBP International exchange rates 2 % App / (Dep) of USD Latest Last MPS Jul -Jul FY9 USD/EUR (.). Daily Movement of USD against Major Currencies USD/Euro USD/GBP Yen/USD (rhs) Jul USD/GBP.2..2 (.6).65 JPY/USD INR/USD (.8) Updated till July, 28 PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Quarterly Basis High Low Close Average Volatility C/C CNY/USD Q-FY THB/USD Q-FY MYR/USD..98. (.).2 Q-FY SGD/USD.6..6 (.7).58 Q2-FY The exchange rates are shown as per country practices Q-FY PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Fiscal Year Basis High Low Close Average Q-FY Q Volatility C/C Q FY Q FY Q FY Q FY Q Q Q FY Q-FY Reuters: Average Close-to-Close Daily Volatility (in %) Updated upto July, 28; High/Low rates of M2M. Financial Markets 27

30 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) Base Year: CY2 July 28 NEER Index Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May p Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May p RPI 26 Changes in Relative price Index (RPI) Base Year: CY2 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May p Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May p Changes in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Base Year: CY2 REER Index Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May p Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May p P: Provisional Source: SBP Financial Markets 28

31 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Capital Market July 28 Performance of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Percentage change during Jul-8 Jul 2 End-period KSE TM - index 9,587,9,9 6, End-period KSE TM - index 9,9 2,569 2,569 2, Market capitalization () 8,56 8,85 8,96 9, Ready volume (million shares) SCRA flows (US$ million) Upto July, 28 2 Reflects growth since end of the previous month Average during the period Cumulative net flow during the period million shares KSE - Index and Ready Volume Volume of Shares KSE- index (rhs) Jul-8 55, 52, 9,2 6,, 9,9 6,8,7,6 27,5 2, 2, 8,2 5, 2, Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market (as of market capitalization) Jul-8 Source: PSX, JS Research Updated upto July, 28 Sources: PSX and S&DWD, SBP million US$ Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA) Net Flows SCRA KSE- index (rhs) Jul-8 55, 52, 9,2 6,, 9,9 6,8,7,6 27,5 2, 2, 8,2 5, 2, as of total expenses Financial Expenses of Corporate Sector CY CY CY2 CY CY CY5R CY6P Source: S&DWD, SBP Updated upto July, 28 Source: PSX and S&DWD, SBP Sources: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and JR Research. Financial Markets 29