Section I. Macro 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 2,500 2,000 1,500 -1% 1,000 -2% -3%
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1 Section I. Macro $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $2 Fig.1. and US Real Rates US Real Rates Price % 1% -1% - -3% - - $3,5 Fig.2. Fed Balance Sheet ($B) $3, $2,5 $1,5 $ ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Fig.3. and ECB Real Rates ECB Real Rates % 1% -1% - -3% 3,5 Fig.4. ECB Balance Sheet ( B) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Fig.5. and PBC Real Rates PBC Real Rates % 1% -1% - -3% , Fig.6. PBC Balance Sheet (CNY B) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,
2 Thousands Section I. Macro $16 $14 $12 $1 Fig.7. The Biggest 6 Central Bank Balance Sheets US, UK, Japan, China, EU & Switzerland (US$T) $6 $4 Fig.8. and M2 (US$B; Fed, ECB, PBC) M2 $1,5 $8 $6 $2 $5 $ Fig.9. US M1 YoY% Fig.11. ECB M1 YoY % Fig.13. PBC M1 YoY % Fig.1. US M2 YoY% Fig.12. ECB M2 YoY % 1 8% 6% Fig.14. PBC M2 YoY %
3 Section I. Macro Fig.15. Inflation 2/28/13 US Euro Area China Headline CPI Core CPI n/a Shadowstats 9.6 n/a n/a ; Shadow Government Statistics $18 Fig.16. US Public Debt Outstanding ($T) $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $ Fig.17. US Total Credit market Debt as % of GDP $17 $16 Fig.18. The Debt Ceiling ($T) $15 17 $ $ % 6% Fig.19. Average Annual Interest Rate Paid on Debt 2 2 Fig.2. Interest Expense as % of Total Government Outlays 2 18% 3% 16% 1 1% ; US Treasury ; US Treasury 3
4 Section I. Macro Fig.21. Quality Spread and Price Moody's Seasoned Corp Aaa vs Baa $1,5 $ $1,9 Fig.22. Global Forex Accumulation (US$B, 12 month sum) $7 Fig.23. Foreign Purchase of US Treasuries (US$B, 12 month sum) $1,4 $5 $9 $3 $1 -$ ; MacroMavens, LLC -$1 Source: US Treasury; MacroMavens, LLC $22 $18 Fig.24. China Net purchases Long-Term US Securities (annual US$B) $14 $1 $6 $2 -$ Source: US Treasury; MacroMavens, LLC 4
5 Section II. Fig.25. Supply and Demand (tonnes) Supply Mine production 2,591 2,592 2,478 2,55 2,481 2,476 2,49 2,584 2,739 2,827 2,848 Old gold scrap , ,217 1,672 1,723 1,669 1,626 Traditional supply 3,426 3,536 3,37 3,436 3,588 3,432 3,626 4,257 4,463 4,495 4,473 Net producer hedging (412) (279) (445) (86) (373) (444) (349) (252) (18) 1 (2) Official sector sales Total supply 3,559 3,874 3,359 4,12 3,582 3,472 3,513 4,34 4,355 4,55 4,453 Demand Jewellery 2,68 2,522 2,673 2,77 2,283 2,45 2,187 1,76 2,17 1,972 1,98 Other Total fabrication 3,4 2,97 3,89 3,138 2,741 2,867 2,623 2,134 2,483 2,425 2,336 Bar & coin retail investment ,25 1,519 1,256 Official sector purchases ETFs & similar Implied net investment (259) (94) (8) (81) 47 Total demand 3,559 3,874 3,359 4,12 3,582 3,472 3,513 4,34 4,355 4,55 4,453 Source: World Council 2 2 Fig.26. Market Cap of Above Ground as % of Total US Financial Assets Source: Federal Reserve, World Council 6% 3, 2,5 2, Fig.27. Held By ETFS (tonnes) Other GLD 1,4 1,35 1,3 Fig.28. Total Net Asset Value in the SPDR Trust (tonnes) 1,5 1,25 1, 1,2 5 1, Source: Company Filings, World Council 1,1 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 Source: Company Filings 5
6 Section II Fig.29. SPDR Trust Net Asset Value (MOz) Fig.3. SPDR Trust Ownership by Type Investmen t Adviser, 19.8 Broker, 8.7 Non- Institution al, 57.8 Private Banking, Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Source: Company Filings Insurance Company,.2 Source: FactSet Mutual Fund, 3.6 Hedge Fund, 8.3 Pension Fund,.5 Fig.31. Notable Transaction in 1Q13 Country Tonnes Transaction Kazakhstan 1.5 Purchase Korea 2. Purchase Russia 12.2 Purchase Turkey 1.3 Addition 6 Fig.32. Central Banks Net Purchases (tonnes) Source: World Council 34, 33,5 33, 32,5 32, 31,5 31, 3,5 3, Fig.33. Central Banks Holdings of (tonnes) 29, Source: World Council 1 Fig.34. as % of Total Reserves 13% 1 11% 1 9% 8% Source: World Council
7 Section II. 1 8 Fig.35. Web searches for " Bubble" Source: GoogleTrends Fig.36. Web searches for " Investment" Source: GoogleTrends Fig.37. Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Index 2 DSI Source Bloomberg, Bernstein's DSI Fig.38. Market Vane Bullish Consensus Market Vane Source Bloomberg, Market Vane $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $2 $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 7
8 Section II Fig.39. Comex Futures Open Interest (tonnes) Open Interest $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $ Fig.4. vs Continuous Commodity Index CCI Index (2) Net Large Speculators (4) Net Hedgers/Commercials (6) (8) (1,) Source: CFTC Fig.41. Comex Futures Activity (tonnes) $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $ Fig.42. Commercial Net Shorts as % of Total Open Interest Net Short/Open Interest $1,9 $1,7.7 $1,5.6.5 More Net Short $1,3.4 $1,1 Less Net Short.3 $9 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 ; The McClellan Market Report 8
9 1H7 2H7 1H8 2H8 1H9 2H9 1H1 2H1 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H12 1H13 Section III. Mining Equities Fig.43. XAU and HUI as a Ratio of HUI/ XAU/ Source: FactSet $3,5 $3, $2,5 $1,5 $5 -$5 - -$1,5 Fig.44. Net Fund Flows For Lipper's Equity Precious Metals Fund Universe ($M) Source: Morningstar 1H13 - as of 2/28/13 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 Fig.45. Market Cap of Van Eck Equity ETFs ($B) Source: FactSet Fig.46. Miners Dividend Payout Ratio Source: FactSet Universe: ABX, NEM, GG, AU, GFI, KGC, NCM, BVN, HMY, AUY, IAG, CG, EGO, GOLD $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 Fig.47. Equity Capital Issued by Miners $B of Equty Issued # of Transactions Source: RBC Capital Markets
10 Section III. Mining Equities 1 8% 6% Fig.48. Senior Producers Return On Capital $6 $5 $3 $2 $1 Fig.49. Average Cost of Acquisitions in the Sector ($/Oz) Source: FactSet Universe: NEM, ABX, GG, KGC, AUY, NCM, AU, GFI, HMY Acquisition Cost As Ratio of Price Source: RBC Capital Markets $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $2 Fig.5. Senior Producers Cash Costs and Margin ($/Oz) Cash Margin Cash Costs $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $2 Fig.51. Production Costs ($/Oz) Avg Price Aft Tax Cash Cost Margin Source: Company filings
11 Section III. Mining Equities $1,7 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 Fig.52. Consensus Forecast Price ($/Oz) $ $7 28 $5 27 Yr Source: Scotiabank Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Fig.53. Price Discounted by Market ($/Oz) Fig.54. NAV Premiums Senior & Intermediate Producers (N.A.) Source: BMO Capital Markets Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig.55. P/CF Senior Producers (N.A.) Source: BMO Capital Markets 11
Section I. Macro 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 -1% 1,000 -2% -3% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 35,000
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