GOLD MONITOR r Chart Comments (Q4 2018)
|
|
- Zoe Easter Hood
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 GOLD MONITOR r Chart Comments (Q4 2018) Q4 Comments: 18) 2018) 1. U.S. interest expense as a percentage of U.S. government outlays has likely bottomed (Fig. 20). Interest rates on U.S. debt have been rising and the average maturity of U.S. Federal debt is currently 69 months. There have been, however, fewer buyers of U.S. Treasurys (Fig 22, 23). 2. While net purchases by foreign buyers of U.S. Treasurys has declined, central bank gold holdings continue to rise and are at the highest levels as a percentage of total central bank reserves in over five years (Fig. 32, 33). 3. Gold and silver equity weighting in the S&P/TSX Composite Index is low (Fig. 44). 4. The amount of equity raised by gold miners in 2018 was almost non existent (Fig. 47). As a contrarian investor, this is surely a good sign for the future price of gold and gold mining equities. 5. There is a significant value gap between larger cap and small cap gold companies (Fig. 52). Chart Comments (Q4 2018) Chart Comments (Q4 2018)
2 Section I. Macro $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 Fig. 1. Gold Price and U.S. Real Rates $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $1,500 $500 Fig. 2. Fed Balance Sheet Gold Price (US$/oz) U.S. Real Rates (%) Fed Balance Sheet (US$B) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Fig. 3. Gold Price and ECB Real Rates ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Fig. 4. ECB Balance Sheet 3. Gold Price ( /oz) ECB Real Rates (%) ECB Balance Sheet ( B) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Fig. 5. Gold Price and PBC Real Rates ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Fig. 6. PBC Balance Sheet Gold Price ( /oz) PBC Real Rates (%) PBC Balance Sheet ( B) 1
3 (US$T) Section I. Macro Fig. 7. The Biggest 6 Central Bank Balance Sheets U.S., U.K., Japan, China, EU & Switzerland Fig. 8. Gold Price and M2 (Fed, ECB & PBC) $60,000 $25 $1,800 $1,600 $50,000 $20 $1,400 $40,000 $15 $30,000 $10 $5 $20,000 $10,000 Gold Price (US$/oz) M2 (US$B) 2 Fig. 9. U.S. M1 YoY% 12% Fig. 10. U.S. M2 YoY% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 14% Fig. 11. ECB M1 YoY% 12% Fig. 12. ECB M2 YoY% 12% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2
4 Jan40 Jan43 Jan46 Jan49 Jan52 Jan55 Jan58 Jan61 Jan64 Jan67 Jan70 Jan73 Jan76 Jan79 Jan82 Jan85 Jan88 Jan91 Jan94 Jan97 Jan00 Jan03 Jan06 Jan09 Jan12 Jan15 Jan18 Section I. Macro Fig. 13. PBC M1 YoY% Fig. 14. PBC M2 YoY% Fig. 15. Inflation December 2018 Fig. 16. U.S. National Debt (US$T) 12. $ % $ U.S. Euro Area China $15 $ % 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% $ % 1. Headline CPI Core CPI Shadowstats Source: Bloomberg, Shadow Government Statistics. 1 Fig. 17. Total Public Market Debt as % of GDP $25 Fig. 18. U.S. Debt Ceiling (US$T) $25 10 $20 $20 8 $15 $15 6 $10 $10 4 $5 $5 Debt Ceiling Limit Total Federal Debt 3
5 Dec88 Dec89 Dec90 Dec91 Dec92 Dec93 Dec94 Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Section I. Macro Fig. 19. Average Annual Interest Rate on U.S. Debt Fig. 20. Interest Expense as % of Government Outlays 8% 2 7% 6% 1 4% 3% 2% 1% Source: U.S. Treasury, Meridian Macro. Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury. Fig. 21. TTM Global Forex Accumulation (US$B) Fig. 22. TTM Net Purchases of U.S. Treasurys by Foreign Countries (US$B) $1,500 $500 $500 Dec77 Dec82 Dec87 Dec92 Dec97 $250 Fig. 23. TTM China Net Purchases of LongTerm U.S. Securities (US$B) Fig. 24. Margin Debt vs. S&P 500 $150 $100 $50 Jul89 Jul92 Jul95 Jul98 Jul01 Jul04 Jul07 Jul10 Jul13 Jul16 $50 $100 Source: Bloomberg, MacroMavens. Source: Advisor Perspectives. 4
6 Millions of Ounces Section II. Gold Fig. 25. Gold Supply and Demand (tonnes) Supply Mine production 2,744 2,846 2,911 3,073 3,150 3,223 3,263 3,269 Net producer hedging (109) 23 (45) (28) (30) Recycled gold 1,683 1,668 1,691 1,263 1,189 1,120 1,295 1,160 Total supply 4,318 4,536 4,558 4,308 4,444 4,356 4,591 4,398 Demand Jewellery 2,043 2,090 2,133 2,722 2,526 2,455 1,995 2,122 Technology Subtotal above fabrication 2,503 2,519 2,514 3,078 2,875 2,787 2,318 2,455 Total bar & coin demand 1,204 1,500 1,308 1,723 1,052 1,075 1,049 1,029 ETFs & similar products (912) (184) (125) Central bank & other inst Gold demand (Fabr. Basis) 4,216 4,732 4,697 4,513 4,326 4,314 4,304 4,058 Surplus/Deficit 103 (196) (139) (206) Total demand 4,318 4,536 4,558 4,308 4,444 4,356 4,591 4,398 LBMA Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225 1,572 1,669 1,411 1,266 1,160 1,251 1,257 Source: World Gold Council. Fig. 26. Market Value of Above Ground Gold/U.S. Financial Assets Source: U.S. Geological Survey, World Gold Council, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg. Fig. 27. Gold Held by ETFs Nov04 Nov06 Nov08 Nov10 Nov12 Nov14 Nov16 Nov18 All ETFS SPDR Trust 5
7 Section II. Gold Fig. 28. GDX Shares Outstanding (in millions) NonInstitutional Fig. 29. SPDR Gold Trust Ownership by Type 60.7% Insurance Company 0.2% Mutual Fund 0.8% Hedge Fund Pension Fund 5.8% Private Banking 6.6% Broker 4.6% Investment Adviser 19.9% Source: FactSet. Fig. 30. Notable Gold Purchases YTD Oct. 31, 2018 (tonnes) 800 Fig. 31. Central Bank Net Purchases/(Sales) (tonnes) Turkey Russia (200) Kazakhstan (400) (600) (800) Source: World Gold Council. Source: World Gold Council. Fig. 32. Central Bank Gold Holdings (tonnes) Fig. 33. Central Bank Gold Holdings as % of Total Reserves 35,000 14% 34,000 13% 33,000 12% 32,000 11% 31,000 30,000 9% 29,000 8% Source: World Gold Council. Source: World Gold Council. 6
8 Section II. Gold 120 Fig. 34. Web Searches for "Gold Bubble" Sep07 Sep09 Sep11 Sep13 Sep15 Sep17 Source: Google. 120 Fig. 35. Web Searches for "Gold Investment" Oct04 Oct06 Oct08 Oct10 Oct12 Oct14 Oct16 Oct18 Source: Google. Fig. 36. Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Index $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan Gold Price (US$/oz) BDSI Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein's DSI. Fig. 37. Market Vane Sentiment Index $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan Gold Price (US$/oz) MVSI Source: Bloomberg, Market Vane. 7
9 Jan00 Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Section II. Gold Fig. 38. Comex Gold Futures Open Interest 2, Fig. 39. Gold vs Continuous Commodity Index Performance $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 2, ,500 1, Gold Price (US$/oz) Open Interest (tonnes) Gold Price CCI Index Fig. 40. Comex Gold Futures Activity 800 $1, ,200 Source: CFTC. Net Large Speculators (tonnes; LHS) Net Hedgers/Commercials (tonnes; LHS) Gold Price (US$/oz) $500 Fig. 41 Commercial Net Shorts as % of Total Open Interest Fig. 42. Registered COMEX Gold Stocks vs. Owners per Ounce 6,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1, ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Gold Price (US$/oz) Net Short/Open Interest Owners per Ounce (LHS) Registered Stocks (koz; RHS) 8
10 Dec94 Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Section III. Gold Mining Equities 7 Fig. 43. XAU and HUI as a Ratio of Gold 4 16% Fig. 44. Gold & Silver Sector Weight in S&P/TSX Composite Index % % % 6% 4% 2% HUI/Gold (RHS) XAU/Gold (LHS) Gold & Silver as a % of S&P/TSX Composite Index Average Source: FactSet. $4,000 Fig. 45. Net Fund Flows for Morningstar's Equity Precious Metals Fund Universe ($M) $18 Fig. 46. Market Cap of VanEck Gold Equity ETFs (US$B) $3,000 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 () () $6 $4 $2 ($3,000) Source: Morningstar. Source: FactSet. $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Fig. 47. Equity Capital Issued by Gold Miners Equity Issued (US$B) # of Transactions 0 9
11 Section III. Gold Mining Equities Fig. 48. BI Global Senior Gold Peers Return on Capital 1 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar Fig. 49. Average Cost of Acquisitions in the Gold Sector Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) As Ratio of Gold Price Source: RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg. Fig. 50. AllIn Sustaining Cost vs. Gold Spot Price and Reserve Price Source: Scotiabank. 10
12 Section III. Gold Mining Equities Fig. 51. Gold Price Discounted by Market ($/Oz) Source: BMO Capital Markets, FactSet. Fig. 52. Price/NAV of Gold Mining Equities Source: BMO Capital Markets, FactSet. Fig. 53. P/CF Universe of Coverage Average Fig. 54. Adj. Market Cap per Oz of Resource / Gold Price Source: Scotiabank. Source: Scotiabank. 11
GOLD MONITOR. Chart Comments (Q3 2018)
GOLD MONITOR Chart Comments (Q3 218) 1. 2. The average annual interest rate on U.S. debt continues to increase (Fig. 19). The average maturity of U.S. Federal debt is 69 months as of September 3, 218.
More informationSection I. Macro. Fig.1. Gold and US Real Rates
Section I. Macro $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 Fig.1. Gold and US Real Rates US Real Rates Gold ($/Oz) 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 3% 1% 1% 3% $5, Fig.2. Fed Balance Sheet ($B) $4,5 $4, $3,5 $3, $2,5 $1,5 $5 1995 1998
More informationSection I. Macro 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 -1% 1,000 -2% -3% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 35,000
Section I. Macro $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 Fig.1. Gold and US Real Rates US Real Rates Gold ($/Oz) 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 3% 1% -1% - -3% - - $5, Fig.2. Fed Balance Sheet ($B) $4,5 $4, $3,5 $3, $2,5 $1,5 $5
More informationSection I. Macro 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 2,500 2,000 1,500 -1% 1,000 -2% -3%
Section I. Macro $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $2 Fig.1. and US Real Rates US Real Rates Price 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 3% 1% -1% - -3% - - $3,5 Fig.2. Fed Balance Sheet ($B) $3, $2,5 $1,5 $5 1995 1999 23 27 211
More informationCharts 22 & 23 reflect the declining willingness of foreign investors to invest in US securities. It may have something to do with the point above.
Macro charts show bloated and still expanding central bank balance sheets, negative real interest rates in major currencies, and rapid growth of monetary aggregates. One could argue that these facts are
More informationTocqueville Gold Strategy First Quarter 2013 Investor Letter
Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. Tocqueville Strategy First Quarter 213 Investor Letter The bottoming process in gold and gold mining shares continues to be an extended and frustrating affair. Nevertheless,
More informationSilver Survey Update November Johann Wiebe, Lead Analyst, Precious Metals Demand
Silver Survey Update 2017 15 November 2017 Johann Wiebe, Lead Analyst, Precious Metals Demand THE SILVER MARKET IN 2017 SILVER PRICES DEMAND SUPPLY INVESTMENT PRICE OUTLOOK SILVER PRICE IN DIFFERENT CURRENCIES
More informationGold demand statistics
Gold demand statistics Table 2: Gold demand (tonnes) 2014 2015 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Jewellery 2,482.0 2,397.5 589.5 591.5 686.0 596.9 513.7 623.7 663.2 481.9-19 Technology 348.5 333.8 86.6
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
More informationBullion Quarterly Report
An Overview Bullion Quarterly Report Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Prepared by: KCTL Research GOLD THE KING OF UNCERTAIN TIMES INDEX Price Performance & Review Macro Economic Factors Core Fundamentals Technical
More informationWhat s Next for Broad Commodities? Themes & Solutions
What s Next for Broad Commodities? Themes & Solutions Maxwell Gold Director of Investment Strategy Capital Link CEF & Global ETF Forum April 27 th, 2017 www.etfsecurities.com Global growth show signs of
More informationLBMA (LPPM) Precious Metals Conference September 2011 SILVER INVESTMENT THE RICH MAN S NEW STRATEGY? PHILIP NEWMAN Research Director
LBMA (LPPM) Precious Metals Conference 211 2 September 211 SILVER INVESTMENT THE RICH MAN S NEW STRATEGY?. PHILIP NEWMAN Research Director THOMSON REUTERS GFMS THE LBMA PRECIOUS METALS CONFERENCE, MONTREAL,
More informationWHY GOLD STOCKS SHOULD BE A PART OF YOUR PORTFOLIO
WHY GOLD STOCKS SHOULD BE A PART OF YOUR PORTFOLIO PAUL BURTON, Senior Equities Analyst, THOMSON REUTERS GFMS Academy Finance Global Resources Investing Conf Monday, October 15, 2012 Hong Kong DISCLAIMER
More informationKey Commodity Themes. Maxwell Gold Director of Investment Strategy. Gradient Investments Elite Advisor Forum October 5 th, 2017
Key Commodity Themes Maxwell Gold Director of Investment Strategy Gradient Investments Elite Advisor Forum October 5 th, 2017 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012
More informationWHY GOLD STOCKS SHOULD BE A PART OF YOUR PORTFOLIO
WHY GOLD STOCKS SHOULD BE A PART OF YOUR PORTFOLIO PAUL BURTON, Senior Equities Analyst, THOMSON REUTERS GFMS Academy Finance Global Resources Investing Conf Friday, October 19, 2012 Singapore DISCLAIMER
More informationCommodity Overview Bloomberg Commodity Index - 15 Year Performance to Mar 31, 2018
March, 2018 Commodity Overview Bloomberg Commodity Index - 15 Year Performance to Mar 31, 2018 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2 1/1/2003
More informationCommodities Market Update Gold
Commodities Market Update Gold 5 December 2012 OVERVIEW Lion Global Investors shares its views regarding the outlook for gold in this Special Report. 2012 has been a volatile year for gold. Even though
More informationMULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight
More informationCharteris Treasury Portfolio Managers Ltd
Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers Ltd Goodacre Gold & Silver Presentation March 2014 For Professional advisers only. Not to be shown or given to any retail investors 1. Seasonal Pattern Gold & Silver
More informationRoger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)
Goldman Sachs Research Precious Metals Gold caught in a tug-of-war May 2014 Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852) 2978-6128 roger.yuan@gs.com The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do
More informationThe State of the Gold Market Fourth Quarter 2013 through 2014
The State of the Gold Market Fourth Quarter 213 through 214 Denver Gold Group Toronto, 21 October 213 Denver, 31 October 213 Jeffrey M. Christian Managing Partner jchristian@cpmgroup.com 3 Broad Street,
More informationMarket Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
More informationOutlook for Physical Gold & Silver Demand. Philip Newman Denver Gold Group, European Gold Forum 7 th May 2014
Outlook for Physical Gold & Silver Demand Philip Newman Denver Gold Group, European Gold Forum 7 th May 214 About Metals Focus Truly independent precious metals consultancy Experienced team of precious
More informationGold, Silver, And The Global Economy Outlook
Gold, Silver, And The Global Economy Outlook Peruvian International Gold and Silver Symposium 21 May 2014 Jeffrey M. Christian Managing Partner jchristian@cpmgroup.com 30 Broad Street, 37 th Floor New
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationWHAT IS GOLD COMMODITY OR CURRENCY?
Gold An Investment Opportunity CA Bhargava N. Vaidya 22 nd December 2011 J.S. LODHA Auditorium, ICAI WHAT IS GOLD COMMODITY OR CURRENCY? ROLE OF GOLD Hedge against Inflation Store of Value Liquidity /
More informationAliquot Precious Metals Fund. March 2012
Aliquot Precious Metals Fund March 2012 Aliquot Precious Metals Contents About Castlestone Management Fund overview Conclusion Appendix Source: Castlestone Management 2 www.castlestonemanagement.com Who
More informationVolatility in Global Precious Markets. Harriet Hunnable Managing Director, Metals Products, CME Group
Volatility in Global Precious Markets Harriet Hunnable Managing Director, Metals Products, CME Group The information presented herein has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only. CME Group
More information6/11/12 Spanish bank rescue announced. 6/6/12 China cuts interest rates, fueling best day for U.S. stocks in 2012
Trade History Tactical Opportunities Portfolio LPL Financial Research MODEL WEALTH PORTFOLIOS December 31, 2012 The LPL Financial Research asset allocation process, coupled with a strong security selection
More informationMAY 2018 Capital Markets Update
MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were
More informationOverview of the Global Gold and Silver Markets
Overview of the Global Gold and Silver Markets Philip Klapwijk Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd. Lima, 18 th May 21 The GFMS Group s Unique Research Capabilities & Programme Large and experienced team of 25
More informationBase & Precious Metals Performance October 2, November 24, Oct 12-Oct 23-Oct 1-Nov 10-Nov 21-Nov.
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA Analyst srajeev@researchfrc.com November 28, 2006 Investment Analysis for Intelligent Investors Fundamental Metals Monthly Commodity Market Becomes Less Volatile Sector/Industry:
More informationETF Securities Investment Professional Presentation The Fundamentals of Precious Metals
ETF Securities Investment Professional Presentation The Fundamentals of Precious Metals April 2012 ETF Securities U.S. Offerings This presentation is given to you on behalf of the following trusts: ETFS
More informationPrecious metal prices stronger for longer. Precious metal prices stronger for longer
Dr +27 11 384 214 david.davis@csss-sa.com Source: CSSS November 27 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. 1 In this debate we define precious metals as gold, platinum
More informationMarket and Economic Charts. Retail Fund Management Team Investec Asset Management
Market and Economic Charts Retail Fund Management Team Investec Asset Management 30 April 2010 Looking at Markets Global SA Economics Major Index Performance Major Index Performance Market Drivers Inflation
More informationGold Moves in Long Cycles. Source: Global Financial Data, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Shanghai December, 2013 11/20/2013 Gold Moves in Long Cycles 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1800 1812 1824 1836 1848 1860 1872 1884 1896 1908 1920 1932 1944 1956 1968 1980 1992 2004 Source:
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationCapturing equity gains whilst protecting portfolios
Capturing equity gains whilst protecting portfolios Edward Park Q2 2018 MSCI North America Total Return in USD (2017 Discrete Calendar Months) 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0% 0.00% Jan-17
More informationMarket Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
More informationApproved for one hour of Continuing Education credit through the CFP board.
Approved for one hour of Continuing Education credit through the CFP board. Today s Speakers Moderator Frank Holmes U.S. Global Investors CEO and CIO Aram Shishmanian World Gold Council Chief Executive
More informationU.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE. MACRO February 5, 2014
U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE MACRO February 5, 2014 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker
More informationETF Securities Precious Metals Quarterly Q GOLD REMAINS RESILIENT FACING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
Gold in US$'s per ounce Fed Funds futures price (-the rate) Mike McGlone Head of Research US Mike.mcglone@etfsecurities.com ETF Securities Precious Metals Quarterly Q1 215 GOLD REMAINS RESILIENT FACING
More informationP R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY. Milan IFTA Conference "Sailing to the Future" October 2017
P R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY Milan IFTA Conference "Sailing to the Future" October 2017 Frédéric Leroux Global Fund Manager Head of Cross Asset Team 2 The Importance of Being a Risk Manager 3 Over
More informationThe Long Journey to Recovery. Russia Economic Report April 2016 Edition No. 35
The Long Journey to Recovery Russia Economic Report April 216 Edition No. 35 1 2 3 The anticipated recovery was delayed and the economy adjusted through a sharp income drop. The government s policy response
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationPage 2 of 7 March 2019
Page 2 of 7 March 2019 Energy and Materials Crude Oil Natural Gas (WTI) (Henry Hub) (AECO) Lumber US$/bbl US$/mmbtu US$/mbf 2006 66.10 6.74 5.76 290 2007 72.36 6.98 6.02 245 2008 99.57 8.86 7.79 215 2009
More informationQuarterly Letter June 2012
Quarterly Letter June 2012 Dear Clients and Friends, After a fantastic start, the stock market was quite volatile in the 2 nd quarter. Despite the 10% midquarter correction, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationLongview Economics Investments. Trades. Macro.
Commodity Fundamentals Report No. 92, 27 th Mar 2019 Written by: Harry Colvin, CFA, Director & Senior Market Strategist: dl+44 (0) 207 062 8803 Brad Waddington, Economics and Markets Analyst: dl+44 (0)
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webcast November 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast November 3, 217 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More informationTime to Mine for Gold Mining Opportunities?
SPECIAL GOLD REPORT Time to Mine for Gold Mining Opportunities? Have gold miners hit a bottom? Is there an attractive entry point? What are the drivers for a rebound? Since many gold companies plummeted
More informationMarkets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only
Markets at a Glance India Q CY 17 For Distributors use only India Macro Economy Trade Inflation Monetary Sector Valuations Liquidity Macro Economy GDP Emerging vs Developed (In % YoY) Credit Growth vs
More informationChartWorks. PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS September 7, 2009
ChartWorks PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS September 7, 2009 Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca Gold... couldn t be better. We ve watched patiently, monitoring the action in anticipation of
More informationGlobalisation and central bank policies
Globalisation and central bank policies Lucas Papademos European Central Bank Bridge Forum Dialogue 22 January 28, Luxembourg 1 Chart 1: Oil and other commodity prices Brent crude oil price (USD per barrel)
More informationEquity Strategy. Further Reducing Interest Rate Sensitivity Stéphane Rochon, CFA, Equity Strategist. September 2013
September 13 Equity Strategy Further Reducing Interest Rate Sensitivity Stéphane Rochon, CFA, Equity Strategist What is your portfolio s interest rate sensitivity? This may not be the most gripping way
More informationCommerzbank Global Precious Metals. Tanaka Precious Metals Group Valcambi sa. Dubai Multi Commodities Centre. Barrick Gold Corporation
Gold Survey 2010 Philip Klapwijk Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd. Denver Gold Group European Gold Forum 2010 Zurich, 15 th April 2010 GFMS gratefully acknowledge the generous support from the following companies
More informationDo Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III
JULY 213 Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III By: Eric Sprott Follow us on Twitter Recent dramatic declines in gold prices and strong redemptions from physical ETFs (such as the GLD)
More informationGresham Investment Management. The Value of Gold LBMA 2011
Gresham Investment Management December 2005 The Value of Gold LBMA 2011 September 19, 2011 GRESHAM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC We know commodities. SM Valuation Methodologies Real Estate Comparables How
More informationReview of Membership Developments
RIPE Network Coordination Centre Review of Membership Developments 7 October 2009/ GM / Lisbon http://www.ripe.net 1 Applications development RIPE Network Coordination Centre 140 120 100 80 60 2007 2008
More informationEndowment Funds Performance (Year ending March 31 st, 2013)
Endowment Funds Performance (Year ending March 31 st, 2013) Investment Management Committee Meeting May 16 th, 2013 (Note: all returns and values are expressed in Canadian Dollars- CAD s) 1 Total Endowment
More informationFINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016?
ECONOMIC RESEARCH January - No. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in? We believe investors will be faced with the following characteristics in euro-zone financial markets
More informationMacro Outlook September 2014
Macro Outlook September 2014 Interest Rate Markets The sharp increase in government debt in the world s major developed economies, as a consequence of the financial crisis, remains a key driver of monetary
More informationKASIKORNBANK. Investor Presentation. Monthly Economic Information By KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER. June 2017
KASIKORNBANK Investor Presentation Monthly Economic Information By KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER June 7 For further information, please contact Investor Relations Unit or visit our website at www.kasikornbankgroup.com
More informationEndowment Funds Performance (Year ending June 30 th, 2013)
Endowment Funds Performance (Year ending June 30 th, 2013) prepared for Investment Subcommittee (Note: all returns and values are expressed in Canadian Dollars- CAD s) 1 Quarterly Market Overview Canadian
More informationMetals Outlook: The Good, The Middling & The Unlucky
Metals Outlook: The Good, The Middling & The Unlucky November 21, 217 Rory Johnston Commodity Economist Scotiabank Economics A Tale of Two Growth Stories: World Picks Up Slack of Slowing China 5 4 G OECD
More informationInvestment Commentary 2015 review and 2016 outlook
Investment Commentary 2015 review and 2016 outlook January 2016 www.gold.org The gold price declined in 2015 in US dollar terms but not in all currencies. In our view, the effect that US rates have had
More informationDouble Dip? The Investment World: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow
Double Dip? The Investment World: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow Don Rich Head of Tactical Asset Allocation November 10, 2010 Investment Landscape Has Changed Outsourcing is causal to business cycles, around
More informationMetals Weekly Brought to you by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd ( U) (A member of PhillipCapital)
Metals Weekly Brought to you by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd (362533-U) (A member of PhillipCapital) CME GOLD ($1200.40, -0.52%) Market Commentary Highlights: U.S. - The US trade deficit widened for the second
More informationUBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN PENSION FORUM M R. J O O S T B L O M, C H A I R, B O A R D O F T R U S T E E S M S. O R L A C O U S I N E A U, E X E C U T I
UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN PENSION FORUM M R. J O O S T B L O M, C H A I R, B O A R D O F T R U S T E E S M S. O R L A C O U S I N E A U, E X E C U T I V E D I R E C T O R, P E N S I O N S M R. M I K E L
More informationDECEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update
DECEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 312,000 in December, well above expectations for a 176,000 increase. The healthcare sector (+50,000) led job creation, while restaurants
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationCommentary. Just because the river is quiet doesn't mean the crocodiles have left. Malay proverb
LongRun Monthly Strategy Review Mar 2016 AR -0.11% AG +8.52% TMG +1.91% SP500 +6.72% R2000 +8.02% GDP +9.17% Commentary Equity markets around the world registered impressive gains in March as follow-through
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationFEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES Minneapolis Options Report December 13 th Commodity Markets Option trading rose relative to two weeks ago to a more average level last week
More informationGold, Mines & Natural Resources Rising volatility
Gold, Mines & Natural Resources Rising volatility Arnaud du Plessis - Senior Portfolio Manager, Global Thematic Equities, Natural Resources / Gold & Precious Metals Gold prices followed no clear trend
More informationFuture strategic paths for mining companies in today s new environment
Future strategic paths for mining companies in today s new environment 275 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 Collapse of the mining industry and record net debt levels Market capitalisation of mining sector
More informationGlobal Markets Update QNB Economics 12 November 2017
Global Markets Update QNB Economics 12 November 2017 Executive Summary Key Takeaways Advanced economy 10-year yields rose on expectations of reduced quantitative easing; Saudi Arabia s corruption probe
More informationPrecious Metals Monthly China in focus
Precious Metals Monthly China in focus Group Economics Macro Research Georgette Boele tel, +31 2 6297789 3 March 214 Gold investment demand outlook to remain negative and to overshadow an increase in jewellery
More informationFigure 1: Resource subsector ETF performance
In February the Bromma Resource Fund returned -4.8% for Class B C$ and -8.5% for Class V US$. While general equity markets were able to recover more than half of their volatility-induced peak-to-trough
More informationPLATINUM QUARTERLY PRESENTATION Q London 21 st November, 2017
PLATINUM QUARTERLY PRESENTATION Q3 2017 London 21 st November, 2017 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: This publication is general and solely for educational purposes. The publisher,
More information2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
More informationOverview.
Overview Inaugurated on November 10, 2003 A demutualised and electronic platform, which facilitates online trading, clearing and settlement operations in commodity derivatives Regulated by the Forward
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationRobotics and Automation - A Growing Trend
Let's Talk Charts December 6, 2017 Robotics and Automation - A Growing Trend Chart of the Day 160 150 140 130 90 ROBO MSCI ROBO The Global Robotics and Automation ETF has gained 45.10% YTD (as at December
More informationTHE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l October 2013
THE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM October 2013 AGENDA THREE TOPICS 1. Result of the latest BIS triennial central bank survey
More informationFive investment themes for 2014
December th, 1 Five investment themes for 1 MARTIN LEFEBVRE Asset Allocation and Investment Strategist (1) 1 87 martin.lefebvre@bnc.ca Monthly review November was another good month for the stock market.
More informationEnergy and Mines World Congress: Scotiabank Metals Outlook
Energy and Mines World Congress: Scotiabank Metals Outlook November 27, 217 Rory Johnston Commodity Economist Scotiabank Economics A Tale of Two Growth Outlooks: World Picks Up Slack of Slowing China 5
More informationBMO Exchange Traded Funds
BMO Exchange Traded Funds June 2012 Alfred Lee, CFA, CMT, DMS Vice President & Investment Strategist BMO BMO Global Asset Management Agenda The Growing ETF Landscape Institutional Usage of ETFs Mechanics
More informationFEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES Minneapolis Options Report October 3 rd Risk neutral expectations for inflation continue to fall. Bank and Insurance company share prices
More informationCor Capital Fund MONTHLY REPORT & FACT SHEET 31 OCTOBER MTD: -3.7% 12M: -2.0% 3yr Ann: 4.7% 3yr Vol: 7.4% Description
MONTHLY REPORT & FACT SHEET 31 OCTOBER 218 MTD: -3.7% 12M: -2.% 3yr Ann: 4.7% 3yr Vol: 7.4% Description The Cor Capital Fund is an Australian registered managed investment scheme that seeks to generate
More informationNdiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013
Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014
More informationU.S. Global Investors Searching for Opportunities, Managing Risk
U.S. Global Investors Searching for Opportunities, Managing Risk Frank E. Holmes CEO and CIO Susan McGee President and General Counsel Catherine Rademacher CFO Ryan George Investor Relations GROW Earnings
More information2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
More informationWeekly Economic Highlights
Vol. 20 No. 1 Weekly Economic Highlights Table of Contents 1. INTEREST RATES..1 2. CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT ACTIVITY....2 3. INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS...4 4. EXCHANGE RATES...6 5. EQUITY
More informationMTA Educational Web Series
MTA Educational Web Series One Practitioner s Guide to Combining Macro, Fundamentals and Technical Analysis Presented by: Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Chief Market Strategist SunTrust Bank July 2014 Outline:
More informationSouth Africa s Platinum Mining Crisis
South Africa s Platinum Mining Crisis Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee: Minerals 20 th February 2013. Roger Baxter Senior Executive: Economics & Strategy 1 2 Presentation Outline The
More informationGlobal Metals & Mining/Steel Conference. November 20, 2014
Global Metals & Mining/Steel Conference November 20, 2014 Forward Looking Information Both these slides and the accompanying oral presentation contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning
More informationStrong Equity Inflows where Foreign Equities Benefit
Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy European Monthly ETF Market Review Date 10 December 2015 Strong Equity Inflows where Foreign Equities Benefit Data in this report
More information