Charts 22 & 23 reflect the declining willingness of foreign investors to invest in US securities. It may have something to do with the point above.

Transcription

1 Macro charts show bloated and still expanding central bank balance sheets, negative real interest rates in major currencies, and rapid growth of monetary aggregates. One could argue that these facts are well known, and that is certainly the case. However, the consequences of these facts are still unknown, and therefore undiscounted by the markets. This in our opinion is the basis for further upside in the gold price. Charts 16 & 17 reveal a potential time bomb for US treasuries. Interest on the public debt is close to historical lows, due in part to Fed manipulation, the fear trade, and old fashioned momentum. Think of what 3 or 4 additional basis points across the yield curve would do to the fiscal deficit. (Hint: what is x $16 trillion as a percent of future fiscal deficits? Answer: it is very high). Charts 22 & 23 reflect the declining willingness of foreign investors to invest in US securities. It may have something to do with the point above. Charts 27, 3 & 31 indicate that despite all of the talk about gold, it remains very underowned. Charts 34 & 35 show that sentiment is at, or approaching rock bottom levels from which rallies can be reliably be expected. Chart 44 shows that despite all of the sell side whining about rising costs (see Chart 45), profits are at record levels. The consequence of Chart 44 is reflected in Chart 48, a steady decline in equity issuance. We believe declining equity dilution is an important positive fundamental change in the industry that will help lead to expanding valuation of gold mining equities. 1

2 SECTION I. MACRO $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $4 $2 Fig.1. Gold and US Real Rates Gold Price US Real Rates % - -3% -2% -1% 1% 2% 3% 5% $3,5 Fig.2. Fed Balance Sheet ($B) $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $ ,4 1,2 1, Fig.3. ECB Real Rates and Gold in EUR Gold ECB Real Rates % -2% -1% 1% 2% 3% 3,5 Fig.4. ECB Balance Sheet ( B) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, Fig.5. Chinese Real Rates and Gold in RMB Gold Chinese Real Rates 2, % - -3% -2% -1% 1% 2% 3% 5% Fig.6. PBC Balance Sheet (RMB B) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

3 SECTION I. MACRO $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 2 15% 1 5% Fig.7. The Biggest 6 Central Bank Balance Sheets US, UK, Japan, China, EU & Switzerland (US$T) % Fig. 9. US M1 YoY% $4 $3 $2 $1 Fig. 8. Gold and Combined M2 ($T; Fed, ECB, PBC) Gold M % 12% 8% Fig. 1. US M2 YoY% $2, $1,5 $5-5% % 12% Fig. 11. ECB M1 YoY % % 8% Fig. 12. ECB M2 YoY % 8% Fig.13. PBC M1 YoY % 3 Fig.14. PBC M2 YoY %

4 SECTION I. MACRO Fig.15. Inflation Dec-12 US Euro Area China Headline CPI Core CPI n/a Shadowstats 9.41% n/a n/a ; Shadow Government Statistics 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% Fig.16. Average Annual Interest Rate Paid on US Debt ; US Treasury $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $ Fig.17. US Public Debt Outstanding ($T) 2 22% Fig.18 US Interest Expense as % of Total Government Outlays 2 18% 16% 1 12% ; US Treasury 4

5 SECTION I. MACRO Fig. 19. Quality Spread and Gold Gold Price Moody's Seasoned Corp Aaa vs Baa $2, $1,5 $ Fig.2. The Debt Ceiling ($T) Fig.21. Global Forex Accumulation. 12 months sum Source: Bianco Research Source: MacroMavens, LLC Fig.22. China Net Purchases of LT US Securities (annual $B) Fig.23. Share of Global Forex Accumulation Recycled into US Securities Source: MacroMavens, LLC Source: MacroMavens, LLC 5

6 Supply Fig. 24. Gold Supply and Demand(tonnes) SECTION II. GOLD Q3212 Mine production 2,591 2,592 2,478 2,55 2,481 2,476 2,49 2,584 2,739 2,827 2,11 Old gold scrap , ,217 1,672 1,723 1,669 1,237 Traditional supply 3,426 3,536 3,37 3,436 3,588 3,432 3,626 4,257 4,463 4,495 3,337 Net producer hedging (412) (279) (445) (86) (373) (444) (349) (252) (18) 1 (12) Official sector sales Total supply 3,559 3,874 3,359 4,12 3,582 3,472 3,513 4,34 4,355 4,55 3,326 Demand Jewellery 2,68 2,522 2,673 2,77 2,283 2,45 2,187 1,76 2,17 1,972 1,41 Other Total fabrication 3,4 2,97 3,89 3,138 2,741 2,867 2,623 2,134 2,483 2,425 1,738 Bar & coin retail investment ,25 1, Official sector purchases ETFs & Similar Implied net investment (259) (94) (8) (81) 83 Total demand 3,559 3,874 3,359 4,12 3,582 3,472 3,513 4,34 4,355 4,55 3,326 Source: World Gold Council 25% 2 Fig. 25. Market Cap of Above Ground Gold as % of Total US Financial Assets 22% 2 15% 1 5% Q3'212 Source: Federal Reserve, World Gold Council 6% 25 Fig. 26. Gold Held By Gold ETFS (tonnes) Other GLD Source: Company Filings, World Gold Council 6

7 SECTION II. GOLD Fig. 27. GLD Ownership by Type Non- Institutional, 57.9% Investment Adviser, 19.3% Broker, 7. Private Banking,.9% Pension Fund,.5% Source: Factset Insurance Company,.2% Mutual Fund, 3.6% Hedge Fund, 1.2% 6 Fig.28. Central Banks Net Purchases (tonnes) Q Source: World Gold Council Fig.29. Notable Transactions in 3Q12 Country Tonnes Transaction Kazakhstan 2.45 Purchase Korea 16. Purchase Russia Purchase Turkey Addition Source: World Gold Council 34, Fig. 3. Central banks Holdings of Gold (tonnes) 33,5 33, 32,5 32, 31,5 31, 3,5 3, 29, Source: World Gold Council 1.6% Fig. 31. Gold as % of Total Reserves 1.5% % 1.2% 1.1% Source: World Gold Council 7

8 SECTION II. GOLD 1 8 Fig.32. Web searches for "Gold Bubble" Aug-5 Aug-6 Source: GoogleTrends Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug Fig.33. Web searches for "Gold Investment" Source: GoogleTrends Fig. 34. Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Index $2, DSI Gold Source Bloomberg, Bernstein's DSI $1,5 $5 1 Fig. 35. Market Vane Bullish Consensus Market Vane Gold ; Market Vane $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $4 8

9 SECTION II. GOLD Fig. 36. Comex Gold Futures Open Interest (tonnes) Open Interest $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $4 $2 Fig.37. Gold vs Continuous Commodity Index 48 CCI Index 38 Gold Fig. 38. Comex Gold Futures Activity (tonnes) Net Large Speculators Net Hedgers/Commercials Gold $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $4 $ Source: CFTC Fig.39. Commercial Net Shorts as % of Total Open Interest $1,9.9 Net Short/Open Interest.8 Gold.7 More Net Short Less Net Short ; The McClellan Market Report $1,7 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 $9 9

10 1H7 2H7 1H8 2H8 1H9 2H9 1H1 2H1 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H12 SECTION III. MINING EQUITIES Fig.4. XAU and HUI as a Ratio of Gold HUI/Gold XAU/Gold Source: Factset $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $5 -$5 - -$1,5 Fig.41. Net Fund Flows For Lipper's Equity Precious Metals Fund Universe ($M) Source: Morningstar 2H12 - as of 11/3/12 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 Fig.42. Market Cap of Van Eck Gold Equity ETFs ($B) Source: Factset % 3 25% 2 15% Fig.43. Gold Miners Dividend Payout Ratio Source: Factset Universe: ABX, NEM, GG, AU, GFI, KGC, NCM, BVN, HMY, AUY, IAG, CG, EGO, GOLD $1,8 Fig.44. Senior Producers Cash Costs and $1,6 Margin $1,4 $1,2 $8 $6 $4 $2 Cash Margin Cash Costs 1

11 SECTION III. MINING EQUITIES Fig. 45. Total Cash Outflow ($/oz) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Fig. 46. Average Cost of Acquisitions in the Gold Sector ($/Oz) Note: Operating = Operating costs + Exploration costs + Royalties; Capital= Ongoing+Expansion capital; Other = Finance costs + Other costs Source: Gold Fields 1 8% Fig. 47. Senior Producers Return On Capital Acquisition Cost As Ratio of Gold Price Source: RBC Capital Markets 6% 2% -2% Est Source: Factset Universe: NEM, ABX, GG, KGC, AUY, NCM, AU, GFI, HMY $18 Fig.48. Equity Capital Issued by Gold Miners $16 $14 $B of Equty Issued $12 # of Transactions $1 $8 $6 $4 $ Source: RBC Capital Markets

12 SECTION III. MINING EQUITIES Fig. 49. Gold Price Discounted by Market $1,7 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 Fig.5. Consensus Forecast Gold Price ($/Oz) $ $7 28 $5 27 Yr Source: Scotiabank Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig. 51. NAV Premiums - Senior & Intermediate producers (N.A.) Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig. 52. P/CF - Senior producers (N.A.) Source: BMO Capital Markets 12