Future strategic paths for mining companies in today s new environment

Transcription

1 Future strategic paths for mining companies in today s new environment

2 Collapse of the mining industry and record net debt levels Market capitalisation of mining sector Gold / Silver Diversifieds / Base Metals Other US$ billion US$ billion Net debt of mining sector Current Source: ScotiaBank, CapitalIQ Note: Excludes steel producers (e.g. Nippon, POSCO, ArcelorMittal, etc.) (1) Other includes PGMs, uranium, lithium, coal, iron ore, diamonds and royalty companies

3 Does the move up to $12/oz save us?... Gold price 21 to 216 US$/oz 2 Impairments 211 to 215* US$ billion Does the 2% move since Jan 1 signal end of bear market? *Top 8 global gold companies excluding Randgold Resources who have no impairments throughout this period Source: Barclays, Company disclosures, Factset as of 1-Mar-216

4 Precious metals valuation back to start of the super cycle levels $6 $5 Market capitalisation of precious metals mining sector Gold Developers Gold Juniors Gold Intermediates Gold Seniors Silver Companies $495 Bn $4 $3 $275 Bn $2 $185 Bn $1 $175 Bn $35 Bn Source: ScotiaBank, CapitalIQ Since Peak in gold price (Mar 211) Senior gold producers (66%) Intermediate gold producers (59%) Junior gold producers (61%)

5 The mining business is cyclical XAU Index 3 years 6 years 6 years 1.5 years 2.5 years 4+ years The mining industry is cyclical over time Market focus shifts between growth and survival Bull Market = Growth in Production Focus Bear Market = Survival Focus Over the past 4+ years the gold sector has largely been in a broad bear market Significant underperformance across all gold equities with valuations at multi -year lows Cost-cutting, project delays, write-downs, management turnover / lay-offs and asset sales Investor focus on free cash flow and shareholder returns, not growth Source: ScotiaBank

6 Gold price and the hedging crises 199 to US$/oz Gold price Start of the Chinese led supercycle 45 4 Industry stops hedging driving gold higher Hedging peak drives gold to multi decade lows

7 Exploration success is the only real way to create value Creating value from M&A needs a higher gold price M&A demands a premium Brownfields exploration: further discovery Value development production Discovery and development build real value exploration discovery Time

8 Gold and commodity prices the past 2 years Commodity prices indexed to London Gold (PM Fixing ($/ozt) Copper (LME Cash $/t) Brent Crude Oil (ICE $/bbl) Iron Ore 62% Fe, FOB

9 Then and Now the Global Mining Landscape Global Mining top 5 producers US$ Bn Million Global Gold top 5 producers US$ Bn 7 Million Shares outstanding Shares outstanding -15 Market cap Net debt 63% drop in shareprice -2 Market cap Net debt 6% drop in shareprice Source: Company information, FactSet as of 26 January 216. (1)As of 31 December 25 and 26 January 216 (2) For 25 and 215E Consensus; (3) Net debt as of year end 25 and 215E Consensus. (4) listed in share price as of

10 Mining industry is focussed on survival rather than investing for the next cycle Cutting capital and exploration Selling assets at a fraction of purchase price Financing at almost any cost Selling its future to survive!

11 Why can t the industry get it right?... living for today instead of planning for tomorrow Long term value Short termism Quarterly focus driven by fund managers and analysts Investment banking deals Resource nationalisation

12 To maintain the quality of our resource base we need to replace what we mine through discovery and development Number of gold discoveries by year 25 Gold discovered Moz Gold Discoveries Ounces Discovered Gold production Source: SNL Metals and Mining

13 Future prospects for the gold industry Shareholders now face a more uncertain future over the long term view of the gold industry a positive implication for the gold price Oz / shares Reserves per share slowly decreasing Top 1 Gold Producers Randgold

14 Why no growth in gold production? decline in ore grade Reserve grade vs Mining head grade Gold grade g/t Reserve Grade Mining Head Grade Reserve design price vs Gold price US$/oz Reserve Design Price Gold Price Source: Scotiabank October 215

15 What a lost opportunity! FT Gold Mines Index Index % 23% % % 16% 64% 66% 8% 77% Range: Period High Period Low Source: Bloomberg

16 To sustain our industry, we need to work in partnership to deliver long term value A practicable long term strategy Plan against scenarios Governments NGO s and Regulators A filter for investment with clearly defined criteria Hands on management Focus on profitability Clear separation between board and management Mining Companies and Investors Employees and Communities Invest in people A valid social licence

17 Disclaimer CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the future price of gold, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realisation of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, costs of production, reserve determination and reserve conversion rates. Generally, these forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as will, plans, expects or does not expect, is expected, budget, scheduled, estimates, forecasts, intends, anticipates or does not anticipate, or believes, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results may, could, would, might or will be taken, occur or be achieved. Assumptions upon which such forward-looking statements are based are in turn based on factors and events that are not within the control of Randgold Resources Limited ( Randgold ) and there is no assurance they will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Randgold to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including but not limited to: risks related to mining operations, including political risks and instability and risk s related to international operations, actual results of current exploration activities, conclusions of economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, as well as those factors discussed in Randgold s filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ). Although Randgold has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Randgold does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements herein, except in accordance with applicable securities laws. Randgold reports its mineral resources and mineral reserves in accordance with the JORC 212 code. As such numbers are reported to the second significant digit. They are equivalent to National Instrument Mineral resources are reported at a cut-off grade based on a gold price of US$1 5/oz. The reporting of mineral reserves is also in accordance with Industry Guide 7. Pit optimisations are carried out at a gold pric e of US$1 /oz, except for Morila whic h is reported at US$1 3/oz. Mineral reserves are reported at a cut-off grade based on US$1 /oz gold price within the pit designs. Underground reserves are also based on a gold price of US$1 /oz. Dilution and ore loss are incorporated into the calculation of reserves. Cautionary note to US investors: The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proven and probable ore reserves. Randgold uses certain terms in this annual report such as resources, that the SEC does not recognise and strictly prohibits the company from including in its filings with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any parts of the company s resources will ever be converted into reserves which qualify as proven and probable reserves for the purposes of the SEC s Industry Guide number 7.