Approved for one hour of Continuing Education credit through the CFP board.

Transcription

1 Approved for one hour of Continuing Education credit through the CFP board.

2 Today s Speakers Moderator Frank Holmes U.S. Global Investors CEO and CIO Aram Shishmanian World Gold Council Chief Executive Officer Lisa Aston U.S. Global Investors Marketing Leader 2

3 Be Sure to Participate in Our Polls You Could Be a Winner! 24 Carat Gold Plated Horseshoe Three opportunities to win: We ll select one person at random from each poll question. 3

4 Poll Question #1 How is gold included in your portfolio? 4

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6 Gold Just Had Its Best Quarter in 30 Years 6

7 We ll Address These Questions in Our Webcast Today Why does gold have timeless appeal to investors? What are the Fear Trade and the Love Trade and how do they drive gold demand? How do historical and seasonal patterns affect gold? Is the gold rally we have seen this year sustainable? How can gold and gold equities be an integral part of your portfolio? 7

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10 Driver: The Fear Trade Janet Yellen, Chairman of the Federal Reserve President Barack Obama 10

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12 Nominal Interest Rates Real Interest Rates Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation 12

13 Gold Rebound Has Been Linked to Fall in Interest Rates 13

14 The Inverse Relation Between Real Interest Rates and the Price of Gold 14

15 The Great Tectonic Shift of Physical Gold From West to East 15

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17 Mainland China Official Gold Bullion Imports A price maker is an entity that holds a large amount of power over the price of the goods it buys or sells. A price taker is an entity that must accept prevailing prices in a market, lacking market share to influence price on its own. 17

18 Central Bank Gold Buying: Deficit to Surplus 18

19 Driver: The Love Trade 19

20 Gold Historically Follows a Seasonal Pattern The seasonal pattern shows historical tendency of when the highest and lowest prices occurred, based on analysis of daily prices collected over the last 5, 15 and 30 years by Moore Research Center, Inc. 20

21 Gold s Love Trade 21

22 2016 Chinese New Year: Year of the Monkey 22

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25 Emerging World Holds 49% of the Global Population, Just 24% of GDP Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 25

26 China Surpasses U.S. Compare GDP in Absolute Terms vs. GDP on Purchasing Power Parity Valuation 26

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30 Gold vs. Gold Miners 30

31 Near-Record Gold ETF Inflows in First Quarter The price of gold is subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. 31

32 Physically-Backed Gold ETF AuM by Region in Tonnes Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q1 16 vs Q1 15 Tonnage Change Q1 16 vs Q1 15 % Change North America 1, , , , Europe Asia Other Global Total 1, , , , , Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter

33 Top 10 Physically-Backed Gold ETFs by AuM in Tonnes Fund Country Holdings as of End of March Q1 16 vs Q1 15 % Change 1 SPDR Gold Shares United States ishares Gold Trust United States ZKB Gold ETF Switzerland ETFS Physical Gold United Kingdom Gold Bullion Securities United Kingdom Source Physical Gold United Kingdom Xetra-Gold Germany Sprott Physical Gold Trust United States Central Fund of Canada Ltd Canada Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund Switzerland Global Total 1, Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016 See Disclosures Pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. 33

34 Indian Gold Bar and Coin Investment 34

35 Gold Jump and Market Disruption Push India into Steep Discount 35

36 Around a Third of Global Government Debt Has Negative Yield Source: World Gold Council 36

37 Top 10 Reported Official Gold Holdings Country Tonnes % of Reserves 1 United States 8, % 2 Germany 3, % 3 International Monetary Fund 2, Italy 2, % 5 France 2, % 6 China 1, % 7 Russia 1, % 8 Switzerland 1, % 9 Japan % 10 Netherlands % As of March Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter

38 The Wealth Effect The wealth effect is the premise that when the value of stock portfolios rises due to escalating stock or gold prices, investors feel more comfortable and secure about their wealth, causing them to spend more. Source: Investopedia 38

39 Wealth Effect: Chinese and Indian Markets Have Lagged the U.S. 39

40 Gold s Love Trade Has Declined 40

41 Sharp Slowdown in New Mine Start-Ups 41

42 Increased Hedging Coupled with a Slight Uptick in Mine Production Outweighed a Marginal Decline in Recycling Tonnes Q1 15 Q1 16 Year-on-yearchange Quarter-onquarter change Total Supply 1, , % 4% Total Mine Supply % -10% Recycled Gold % 53% Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter

43 Gold s Rise in the First Quarter Viewed by Some Mining Companies as an Opportunity to Hedge for Tactical Purposes 43

44 7 Reasons Gold is Rising Unprecedented nominal negative interest rate Real negative interest rates Investors losing faith in central bank policy Central banks are now net buyers of gold Weakening U.S. dollar Greater scarcity: Gold production is rolling over China consuming huge amounts 44

45 Will Gold Follow the Same Pattern This Year As ? 45

46 Up-Cycles in Gold Price Strength of Up- Cycle Super Ordinary Ordinary Weak Super??? Timing of Down Cycle Sept Nov 1980 June 1982 Feb 1983 Mar 1985 Mar 1988 Mar 1993 Feb 1996 Aug Sept 2011 Dec Present Increase from Trough to Peak 666% 70% 71% 27% 606% 22% Main Drivers for up-cycles Inflation Spiral Interest Rates Drop Sharply Weaker US$, Declining Real Interest Rates Less Central Banks Sales, Less Hedging, but increasing Real Interest Rates Commodities Super Cycle, Weakling US$, No Producer Hedging Negative Interest Rates, Economic Uncertainty, Central Bank Buying, Scarcity? Source: Paradigm Capital Research 46

47 Down-Cycles in Gold Price That Followed Strength of Down-Cycle Super Average Moderate Moderate Average Timing of Down Cycle Dec 1980 May 1982 Mar 1983 Feb 1985 Apr 1988 Apr 1992 Mar 1996 July 2001 Sep 2011 Dec 2015 Decrease from Peak to Trough -65% -43% -33% -35% -44% Main Drivers for Down-Cycle Rising Interest Rates High Real Interest Rates Central Bank Sales, Hedging, Growing Mine Supply High Real Interest Rates, Producer Hedging, Central Bank Sales Strong US$, Commodities Collapse Source: Paradigm Capital Research 47

48 Amplitude of Up-Cycles in Gold Price Sep 1976 Nov 1980 Jun 1982 Feb 1983 Mar 1985 Mar 1988 Mar 1993 Feb 1996 Aug 2001 Sep 2011 Dec Present Low Price (At Close of Day) $111 $297 $288 $328 $268 $1,050 High Price (At Close of Day) $850 $504 $492 $415 $1,892 $1,285 Average Price $292 $416 $392 $381 $701 Increase % from Low to High 666% 70% 71% 27% 606% 22% Source: Paradigm Capital Research 48

49 Amplitude of Down-Cycles in Gold Price Dec 1980 May 1982 Mar 1983 Feb 1985 Apr 1988 Apr 1992 Mar 1996 Jul 2001 Recent Trough Sep 2011 Dec 2015 Average Decline % of 4 Past Downturns Average Decline % of 3 Biggest Downturns Low Price (At Close of Day) $297 $288 $328 $268 $1,050 High Price at Start of Downturn $850 $504 $492 $415 $1,892 Decline from High to low -65% -43% -33% -35% -44% -44% -37% Implied Bottom Based on Previous Cycles $1,056 $1,188 Source: Paradigm Capital Research 49

50 Cycle Duration in Gold Price (Years, Starting with Up-Cycle) Sep 1976 May 1982 Jun 1982 Feb 1985 Mar 1985 Apr 1992 Mar 1993 Jul 2001 Aug 2001 Dec 2015 Duration of 4 Past Cycles Duration of 3 Major Cycles Up-Cycle Years (Trough to Peak) Down-Cycles (Subsequent Peak to Trough) Total Cycle Years Source: Paradigm Capital Research 50

51 Poll Question #2 What do you think the price of gold will be by year end? 51

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54 Managing Expectation Cycles DAY MONTH ANNUAL SEASONAL PRESIDENTIAL 4-YEAR LIFE CYCLE OF MINE 8-YEAR 54

55 The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns 55

56 Each Asset Class Has Its Own DNA Volatility Standard deviation based on 10-year daily data as of 3/31/2016 Daily Rolling 1 Year SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ±1% ±20% Gold Bullion ±1% ±20% NYSE Arca Exchange Gold BUGS Index ±3% ±37% S&P 500 Index (SPX) ±1% ±18% Euro ±1% ±10% Canadian Dollar ±1% ±10% U.S. Dollar Index ±1% ±9% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Global Investors 56

57 Gold s Heartbeat: Gold s Recent Correction Has Taken It Back to the Mean 57

58 Value Drivers for Superior Performance 58

59 We Believe Royalty Companies Have a Superior Business Model Royalty companies serve as specialized financiers that help fund miners exploration and production projects. In return, they receive either royalties on whatever the mine produces or a stream, which is a commitment to an agreed-upon number of ounces of gold or other precious metal per year. See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. 59

60 We Believe Royalty Companies Have a Superior Business Model See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. 60

61 Unlike royalty companies, producer companies operate mines. See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. 61

62 See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. 62

63 Top 10 Performing Gold Stocks Year-to-Date Company Return YTD as of 6/5/2016 Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS) % Kinross (KGC) % Yamana Gold (AUY) % Barrick (ABX) % Buenaventura (BVN) % Alamos Gold Inc % Newmont (NEM) 94.63% Agnico Eagle (AEM) 90.13% New Gold (NGD) 75.43% Royal Gold (RGLD) 71.73% Source: Bloomberg Past performance does not guarantee future results. See Disclosures Pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. 63

64 Gold Priced in Various World Currencies 64

65 U.S. Global Investors Gold Funds (USERX & UNWPX) Are Outperforming Their Benchmarks 65

66 4 Stars Overall Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) 66

67 Recognized by Lipper for Investment Leadership Results in Performance 4 of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from 2005 to of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received certificates from 2000 to of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received top rankings from 2009 to During the years mentioned, there were 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds, while currently the fund family consists of 9 funds. See Disclosures pages for additional information. 67

68 Poll Question #3 Do you plan on adding to your gold allocation in the next 12 months? 68

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70 Sharing Gold Insights with CNBC and Bloomberg Television 70

71 Are you tuning in? Don t miss Frank Holmes weekly gold commentary on Kitco News with Daniela Cambone! 71

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74 Frank Holmes Upcoming Events in 2016 Oxford Club s Private Wealth Seminar Stowe, VT July Mines & Money Toronto September 26 Mining & Investment Latin America 2016 Lima, Peru October Mines & Money Australia November

75 Disclosures Please consider carefully a fund s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www. or by calling US-FUNDS ( ). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser. Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return. The Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weightedaverage of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the distribution percentages.) 75

76 Disclosures Lipper Fund Awards are earned for a fund s consistent performance over one or more time periods, based on Lipper s Consistent Return score. Consistent Return is a quantitative metric that incorporates two characteristics: risk-adjusted return, and the strength of the fund's performance trend. The top-scoring Consistent Return fund within each classification receives the awards. Lipper's Performance Achievement Certificates are awarded to funds with returns that topped their Lipper category over one or more time periods. Lipper top rankings are achieved based on funds with returns that topped their Lipper category over one or more time periods. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The FTSE Gold Mines Index Series encompasses all gold mining companies that have a sustainable and attributable gold production of at least 300,000 ounces a year, and that derive 75% or more of their revenue from mined gold. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was at the close of trading on December 20, The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. 76

77 Disclosures The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility. Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarterend. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/2016: Agnico Eagle (USERX 2.13%); Alamos Gold Inc. (UNWPX 0.02%); Barrick (USERX 1.60%); Buenaventura 0.00%; CenterraGold (USERX 1.09%); Central Fund of Canada Ltd 0.00%; China Gold 0.00%; Eldorado Gold 0.00%; ETFS Physical Gold 0.00%; First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund 0.00%; Franco Nevada (USERX 2.53%, UNWPX 1.13%); Gold Bullion Securities 0.00%; Goldcorp (USERX 5.13%, UNWPX 1.27%); Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USERX 0.56%); ishares Gold Trust 0.00%; Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund 0.00%; Kinross 0.00%; New Gold (UNWPX 0.02%); Newmont 0.00%; Primero 0.00%; Royal Gold Inc. (USERX 1.21%); Silver Wheaton 0.00%; Source Physical Gold 0.00%; SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) 0.00%; Sprott Physical Gold Trust 0.00%; VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 0.00%; Xetra-Gold 0.00%; Yamana Gold (USERX 1.13%, UNWPX 0.05%); ZKB Gold ETF 0.00% 77

78 Total Annualized Returns as of 3/31/2016 One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Cap Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) 24.07% % -3.02% 2.20% 1.90% 26.49% % -6.62% 2.01% 1.90% FTSE Gold Mines Index 20.65% % -4.42% N/A N/A NYSE Gold Miners Index 11.02% % -5.21% N/A N/A Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense cap is a voluntary limit on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, extraordinary expenses, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may lower a fund s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www. or US-FUNDS. 78