Overviews as at August 31, 2018

Transcription

1 Goldletter I N T E R N A T I O N A L the international independent information and a dvice bulletin for gold and related investments Overviews as at August 31, 2018 Marino G. Pieterse, publisher and editor Expecting gold price having bottomed around resistance level of $ 1,200 Significant drop in gold equity markets offers attractive buying momentum Precious and base metal/ oil and uranium prices (in US$) - period gold price related to total metal market complex Aug. 31 Year-end Change % Year-end Year-to-Year Year-end Year-to-Year Year-end Year-end Year-end / / change % change % Gold 1,202 1, , , ,199 1,202 1,664 Silver Palladium 980 1, Platinum ,210 1,358 1,533 Copper 6,019 7, , , ,359 7,395 7,915 Lead 2,062 2, , , ,853 2,206 2,035 Nickel 13,010 12, , , ,935 13,970 17,085 Zinc 2,504 3, , , ,167 2,086 2,035 Brent oil month price range: H $ (22/05/2018) L $ (21/06/2017) 2008: H $ (7/7) L $ (5/12) Uranium (U3O8) spot (27 August) month price range: H $ (6/2/2017) L $ (14/12/2017) Long-term pre-fukushima 2011 (H) Goldletter International 1 August 2018

2 Measuring the gold market as a safe haven London trading Change Period of in US$ in % change December 1, December 2, (2 years) April 14, ( 3½ months) May 10, (- 1 month) May 12, (- 1 month) October 6, (5 months) Year-end (3 months) April 20, (4 months) June 27, (2 months) September 18, (2½ months) Year-end (3½ months) March 17, 2008 (H) 1, (2½ months) May 1, (1½ months) July 16, (2½ months) September 11, (2 months) October 10, (1 month) October 24, 2008 (L) (2 weeks) Year-end (2 months) February 20, (-2 months) (Interim high New York $ 1,006.30) April 20, (2 months) June 1, (-1½ month) July 13, (+1½ month) September 17, , (2 months) December 3, 2009 (H) 1, (2½ months) Year-end , (1 month) January 29, , (1 month) December 7, 2010 (H) 1, (11 months) Year-end , (12 months) January 31, , (1 month) May 3, 2011 (H) 1, (3 months) June 30, , (2 months) September 6, 2011 (H) 1, (2 months) September 30, , (1 month) Year-end , (4 months) February 29, 2012 (H) 1, (2 months) July 12, 2012 (L) 1, (4½ months) July 26, , (5 months) Year-end , (12 months) April 15, , (3½ months) May 3, , (1 month) June 30, 2013 (L) 1, (1½ months) Year-end , (6 months) March 14, 2014 (H) 1, (2½ months) Year-end , (12 months) January 21, 2015 (H) 1, (1 month) December 3, 2015 (L) 1, (11 months) Year-end , (12 months) June 30, , (6 months) July 6, 2016 (H) 1, (1 week) November 8, , (4 months) December 20, 2016 (L) 1, (1½ months) Year-end , (1½ week) June 14, , (5½ months) June 30, , (2 weeks) September 8, 2017 (H) 1, (2 months) Year-end , (3¾ month) August 31, , (8 months) Goldletter International 2 August 2018

3 Gold runs its own course against dollar and oil price Gold ($) /$ Brent Oil Gold/Oil $/barrel ratio Year-end Year-end Year-end Year-end Year-end May 12, ) October 6, ) Year-end June 30, September 18, ) Year-end March 17, 2008 (High) 1, April 30, ) June 30, July 9, ) July 16, September 15, October 8, ) October 24, 2008 (Low) November 24, December 5, ) December 16, ) Year-end January 15, ) March 5, ) April 2, ) May 13, ) June 30, September 30, December 3, 2009 (High) 1, Year-end , May 10, ) 1, June 28, , September 30, , Year-end , April 13, ) 1, June 30, , July 13, ) 1, September 6, 2011 (High) 1, September 30, , November 9, ) 1, December 14, ) 1, Year-end , July 5, ) 1, July 26, ) 1, Year-end , May 8, ) 1, June 30, 2013 (Low) 1, November 11, ) 1, Year-end , June 12, ) 1, September 11, ) 1, Year-end , January 22, ) 1, December 16, ) 1, Year-end , July 6, 2016 (High) 1, September 30, , November 8, ) 1, December 15, ) 1, Year-end , March 15, ) 1, June 14, ) 1, June 30, , September 30, , December 14, ) 1, Year-end , March 21, ) 1, August 31, , Goldletter International 3 August 2018

4 1) 2006 high of gold price 2) 2006 second half low of gold price after correction oil price 3) Fed funds rate lowered for the first time (0.50% to 4.75%) 4) Fed funds rate lowered (0.25% to 4.50%) 5) Fed rate lowered (0.25% to 4.25%) 6) Fed funds and ECB rates lowered 0.50% to 3.75% and 1.50%, respectively 7) 2008 low of oil price 8) Fed funds rate lowered ( % to %) for the last time in 10 stages from 5.25% to %in the period of June 29, December 18, ) ECB rate lowered 0.50% to 2.00% 10) ECB rate lowered 0.50% to 1.50% 11) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.25% 12) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.00% 13) Euro salvation package announced 14) ECB rate increased 0.25% to 1.25% 15) ECB rate increased 0.25% to 1.50% 16) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.25% 17) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.00% 18) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 0.75% 19) ECB: whatever it takes to save Euro 20) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 0.50% 21) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 0.25% 22) ECB rate lowered 0.10% to 0.15% 23) ECB rate lowered 0.10% to 0.05% 24) ECB announces quantative easing program 25) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 0.25%-0.50% range 26) Donald Trump elected as next US President 27) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 0.50%-0.75% range 28) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 0.75%-1.00% range 29) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to % range 30) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to % range 31) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to % range Goldletter International 4 August 2018

5 The crisis resistance of the dollar compared to gold price dollar/euro gold price March 17, , high June 30, September 15, October 24, low December 16, ) Year-end February 27, high June 30, May 13, ) December 3, low 1, high Year-end , March 31, , April 30, , May 14, ) , June 8, high 1, September 30, , Year-end , January 28, , low April 13, ) , April 29, low 1, July 13, ) , September 6, , high September 30, , November 9, ) , December 14, ) , Year-end high 1, February 29, , high July 5, ) , July 9, high 1, low July 26, ) , Year-end , January 2, , high February 20, low March 25, high 1, April 15, , May 8, ) , June 30, , low September 30, , November 11, ) , Year-end low 1, March 14, low 1, high June 12, ) , June 30, , September 13, ) , September 30, , October 31, , low Year-end high 1, January 2, low 1, January 21, , high March 16, high 1, September 30, , December 3, , low December 16, ) , Year-end , July 6, , high September 30, , November 8, ) , December 15, ) , December 20, high 1, low Year-end , March 15, ) , June 14, ) , June 30, , September 8, low 1, high September 30, , December 14, ) , Year-end , March 21, ) , April 30, , June 30, , August 31, , Goldletter International 5 August 2018

6 1) Fed funds rate lowered 0.75%-1.00% to % (ECB 2.50%) 2) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.00% 3) Euro salvation package of 750 billion ($ 955 billion) announced 4) ECB rate increased 0.25% to 1.25% 5) ECB rate increased 0.25% to 1.50% 6) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.25% 7) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 1.00% 11) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 0.25% 12) ECB rate lowered 0.10% to 0.15% 13) ECB rate lowered 0.10% to 0.05% 14) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 0.25%-0.50% range 15) Donald Trump elected as next US President 16) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 0.50%-0.75% range 17) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 0.75%-1.00% range 18) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 1.00%-1.25% range 8) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 0.75% 9) ECB: whatever it takes to save Euro 19) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 1.25%-1.50% range 10) ECB rate lowered 0.25% to 0.50% 20) Fed funds rate increase of 0.25% to 1.50%-1.75% range Course of US dollar Index (USDX) The currency basket of the US dollar Index (USDX), which started in March 1973, is divided in Euros (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pounds (11.9%), Canadian dollars (9.1%), Swedish crones (4.2%) and Swiss francs (3.6%). Since the USDX went up in 1995 from a long term resistance level of 80 to a high of 120 in At the time the Euro was introduced (January 1, 2001), it dropped to a low of 72 in March 2008, but was then followed by a strong upward correction to $ 87 well above the historic resistance level. After a new correction to 74 in early December 2009, from the second half of 2011 into 2012 there was another strong recovery to above the 80 level and reaching a high of 84 in August Since then, the index moved in a relatively stable range before moving up strongly in the course of the second half of In the last week of January 2015 the index reached a high above 100 for the first time since After having weakened in 2017, reflected in a correction to around 92.50, the USD Index has moved up again to a current level around 100. Meanwhile, a make-up of the basket is overdue for revision, as China has emerged to the world s second trading partner since it became a member of the World Trade Organization in late Goldletter International 6 August 2018

7 THE COURSE OF THE DOLLAR AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES 1 US$ = Euro Yen RMB Rupee C$ A$ SA Rand (00) (00) Year-end June 30, September 30, Year-end March 31, June 30, September 30, Year-end March 31, June 30, September 30, Year-end June 30, September 30, Year-end March 30, Year-end June 30, September 30, Year-end June 30, September 30, Year-end September 30, Year-end September 30, Year-end June 30, September 30, Year-end June 30, July 31, August 31, THE COURSE OF THE DOLLAR AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES in % Euro Yen RMB Rupee C$ A$ SA Rand year-to-year 2008 / year-to-year 2009 / year-to-year 2010 / year-to-year 2011 / year-to-year 2012 / year-to-year 2013 / year-to-year 2014 / year-to-year 2015 / year-to-year 2016 / year-end 2017 / July 31, year-end 2017 / August 31, year-end 2013 to August 31, Goldletter International 7 August 2018

8 Course of gold price versus HUI-Index Gold price Change HUI index Change in % in % 2018 August 31 1, June 30 1, May 31 1, April 30 1, March 30 1, February 28 1, January 31 1, Year-end , September 8 (high) , August , June , March , January , Year-end , Year-to-Year , , , , , , , , , Goldletter International 8 August 2018

9 Market valuation of the world's top 20 listed gold producers August 31, 2018 Trading Share price Change High Low Shares Market capitalization symbol Aug. 31 Year-end in % 12 month issued local currency US$ billion million (billion) Traditional countries (12): Canada (5) TSX - in Cdn$ Cdn$ US$ billion Barrick Gold ABX , Goldcorp G Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM Kinross K , IAM Gold IMG Subtotal 35.2 South Africa (3) LSE - in Randgold Resources RRS JSE - in Rand Rand AngloGold Ashanti ANG Gold Fields GFI Subtotal 11.5 USA (1) NYSE - in US$ US$ Newmont Mining NEM Australia (3) ASX - in A$ A$ Newcrest Mining NCM Evolution Mining EVN , Northern Star Resources NST Subtotal 17.2 Emerging countries (8) : Russia (2) OTC US in US$ US$ Polyus Gold International 1) OPYGY:US LSE - in Polymetal International 2) POLY:LN Subtotal 13.2 China (1) Hong Kong / Shanghai - in HK$ HK$ Zijin Mining 3) 2899 / , Peru (1) NYSE - in US$ US$ Minas Buenaventura BVN Brasil (1) TSX - in Cdn$ Cdn$ Yamana Gold YRI Mexico(1) TSX - in Cdn$ Cdn$ Alamos Gold AGI Nicaragua (1) NYSE - in US$ US$ B2Gold BTG West Africa (1) TSX - in C$ C$ Endeavour Mining 4) EDV Subtotal Traditional countries 80.5 Subtotal Emerging countries 33.5 Total ) combination of KazakhGold with Polyus Gold 2) also producing gold mine in Kazakhstan 3) integrated mining company; 1,729 billion domestic A-shares billion H-shares 4) operating four West African mines in Côte d"ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ghana source: Goldletter International Goldletter International 9 August 2018

10 Market valuation of the world's listed gold companies ($ 500 million plus) August 31, 2018 Trading Share price Change High Low Shares Market capitalization symbol Aug. 31 Year-end in % 12 month issued local currency US$ billion Traditional countries (7) : (billion) USA (1) US$ US$ Novagold Resources (also Canada) NG Canada (2) TSX - in C$ C$ Detour Gold DGC New Gold NGD Australia (4) ASX - in A$ A$ Regis Resources RRL NYSE - in US$ US$ Sibanye Stillwater 1) SBGL TSX - in C$ C$ Petrium Resources PVG Novo Resources NVO Emerging countries (5): Turkey (1) TSX - in C$ C$ Eldorado Gold 2) ELD Mexico (1) TSX - in C$ C$ Torex Gold TXG Peru (1) TSX - in C$ C$ Tahoe Resources THO China (1) TSX - in C$ C$ China Gold International Resources CGG Mongolia (1) TSX - in C$ C$ Centerra Gold (also Kyrgyzstan) CG Total valuation in US$ billion ) largest individual producer of gold from South Africa; and among the world's top 10 gold producers; globally the third largest producer of palladium and plarinum 2) also gold producer in Greece and China name change to Sibanye Stillwater effective as at August 30, 2017 source: Goldletter International Goldletter International 10 August 2018

11 CALENDAR OF MINING EVENTS Media Partners second half of 2018 September 5-7 World Nuclear Symposium - London October 8-9 * The Mining Show Dubai October * Mining Investment Oman - Oman October Mining Investment Latin America - Lima, Peru October 29 November 1 IMARC Int. Mining and Resources Conference Melbourne, Australia November Kenya Mining Forum - Nairobi, Kenya November Mines and Money, London 2019 March 3-6 PDAC Toronto, Canada * Marino G. Pieterse presenting Goldletter International 11 August 2018

12 Goldletter International 12 August 2018

13 Goldletter International 13 August 2018

14 Goldletter International a publication by Metal Commodities Investment Platform, the Netherlands Marino G. Pieterse, Publisher and Editor Information and investment comments are independently and thoroughly researched and believed correct. No guaranty of absolute accuracy can be given however. Investment decisions are fully made for own risk tel.: Chamber of Commerce marino.pieterse@metalcommodities-ip.com