U.S. Global Investors Searching for Opportunities, Managing Risk

Transcription

1 U.S. Global Investors Searching for Opportunities, Managing Risk Outlook: 2012 John Mauldin, Financial Expert, Author, and Online Commentator Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer Members of the U.S. Global Investors Investment Team US.FUNDS January

2 Today s Presenters 2

3 About U.S. Global Investors Publicly traded company, traded on NASDAQ (GROW) Headquartered in San Antonio, TX Boutique investment management firm specializing in commodity-related equity strategies 82 employees including 14 investment professionals Offers mutual funds focused in gold, precious metals and minerals, global resources, emerging markets and global infrastructure Manages $2.45 billion in average AUM as of September 30,

4 Performance and Results Oriented Investment leadership results in performance Winner of 29 Lipper performance awards, certificates and top rankings since 2000 (Four out of 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from 2005 to 2008, six out of 13 received certificates from 2000 to 2007, and two out of 13 received top rankings from 2009 to 2010.) 4

5 Focus on Education 28 MFEA STAR Awards for Excellence in Education 5

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14 Reinhart and Rogoff looked at 66 countries and 250 financial crises Key is whether debt is excessive relative to income as Fisher first said was the most important factor in

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26 Monthly Trend of TrimTabs "Dependency Ratio" (%) (Income from Government Social Benefit Programs Divided by Income from Wages and Salaries) January 1959 to March % 32% 28% 24% Ratio (%) 20% 16% 12% 8% 26

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31 2011 Key Events in Review 31

32 Managing Expectations S&P 500 Daily Volatility 32

33 Managing Expectations A Tale of Two Halves in

34 Spikes in Yen Cause Market Selloffs 34

35 VIX Index Volatility Triggers Outflows 35

36 The Presidential Election Cycle 36

37 Golden Cross 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for the Past 20 Years 37

38 Anticipate Before You Participate Measuring Volatility Number of +10% Moves Number of -10% Moves Frequency of ±10% Moves NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) % WTI Crude Oil % MSCI Emerging Markets (MXEF) % Gold Bullion % S&P 500 Index (SPX) % Calculated over rolling 20-trading day periods as of 9/30/2011. Based on approximately 2,600 total occurrences over the past 10 years. 38

39 Global Money Supply Growth Highest in Over a Decade 39

40 Current Global M2 Levels Mean Gold Prices Could Be Much Higher 40

41 Gold Currently Acting as a Store of Value 41

42 Gold Undervalued Compared to Rise in Other Areas of U.S. Economy 42

43 U.S. Government Spending Far Exceeds Revenue Source: Ian McAvity, Deliberations Newsletter 43

44 Gold Stocks are Very Undervalued on Historical Basis 44

45 Crude Oil and Product Stocks are Very Low by Historical Standards 45

46 Top 20 Crude Producers 46

47 Russian Production Growth Slowing Year-over-Year Growth 47

48 Historically Over 40 Percent of Global Oil Supply Under Autocratic Rule Moammar Gaddafi 48

49 Disruptions Often Have Long-Lived Impact Mahmoud Ahmadinejad President of Iran Hugo Chávez President of Venezuela 49

50 Growth in Midstream Energy Market for Infrastructure 50

51 Big Oil Ramping Up Capex in 2012 and Beyond 51

52 Big Premiums for Takeovers in Energy Stocks 52

53 Many Factors Create Tight Copper Supply that Supports Price 53

54 Tight Conditions for Global Potash Market 54

55 Stay Tuned to the Big S-Curve The S-Curve is a type of curve that shows a rapid, exponential increase in growth for a period of time, followed by a tapering or leveling off. 55

56 China: Urbanization Continues 56

57 China: Emerging Sign of New Easing Cycle Blessing for Stocks 57

58 China: Depressed Money Supply Growth Raises Odds of Market Recovery 58

59 China: Auto Boom Not Over Yet 59

60 Indonesia & Thailand: Monetary Expansion 60

61 Indonesia: Secular Story of Consumption 61

62 Indonesia: Rising Confidence from Locals 62

63 Coming Soon History is Key to Future Success with special guest Jeffrey Hirsch Tuesday, January 10, 2012 Register at 63

64 Come Visit Us at Facebook: Twitter: Frank Talk: /franktalk Investor Alert: /alert 64

65 U.S. Global Investors is Mobile Get Investor Alert and Frank Talk On the Go Visit /apps 65

66 Thank You for Attending Today s Webcast Questions? Suggestions? We Look Forward to Hearing from You. Visit Our Website: Call Us. Investors: US-FUNDS ( ) Financial Advisors:

67 Disclosures Please consider carefully a fund s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting or by calling US- FUNDS ( ). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Diversification does not protect an investor from market risks and does not assure a profit. Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. 67

68 Disclosures The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The MSCI China Free Index is a capitalization weighted index that monitors the performance of stocks from the country of China. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was at the close of trading on December 20, The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index is a market-capitalizationweighted index. It covers the largest and most liquid companies that derive at least 50 percent from gold or silver mining or have properties to do so. M2 Money Supply is a broad measure of money supply that includes M1 in addition to all time-related deposits, savings deposits, and noninstitutional money-market funds. Holdings in the Global Resources Fund and China Region Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 9/30/2011: BP 0.00%, BG 0.00%, Chevron 0.00%, Dexia Bank 0.00%, ENI 0.00%, Exxon Mobile 0.00%, OMV 0.00%, Royal Dutch Shell 0.00%, Statoil 0.00%, Total SA 0.00%. 68