International Insurance-Reinsurance Forum 2014 Workshop - NAT CAT Risks

Transcription

1 Reduced risk of water related disasters to protect vulnerable groups and minimize economic losses Sorin Rindasu Director Emergency Situation Department Apele Romane National Administration

2 CONTENT: 1. Short list of recent extreme flood events in Romania-facts; 2. Actors in flood risk management; 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; -flood hazard &risk evaluation in Ro; -ongoing projects, further needs and follow up 4. Water field needs-conclusion 5. Relevant statistics & Questions

3 1. Short list of recent extreme flood events in Romania; facts; Vulnerability degree at the counties level in the period and flooding events 2005,2006,2008, 2010 TIMIS ARAD BIHOR CARAS -SEVERIN SATU- MARE SALAJ CLUJ HUNEDOARA GORJ ALBA MARAMURES BISTRITA- NASAUD MURES SIBIU SUCEAVA HARGHITA BRASOV COVASNA BOTOSANI NEAMT VALCEA PRAHOVA ARGES DAMBOVITA BACAU BUZAU IASI VASLUI VRANCEA GALATI BRAILA TULCEA Damage (10^6 RON) MEHEDINTI DOLJ OLT ILFOV BUCHAREST GIURGIU TELEORMAN IALOMITA CALARASI CONSTANTA Strong affected areas in 2005 Strong affected areas in 2006 Strong affected areas in 2008 Strong affected areas in 2010 Dm Average Damages (Bil. ROL) Dtot- Total Damages (Bil. ROL) Very high vulnerability High vulnerability Average vulnerability Less vulnerability 29 % Dm<30 Dtot< % Dm>70 Dtot> % 28 % Dm=50-70 Dm=30-50Dtot= Dtot=

4 2. Actors in flood risk management; NATIONAL COMMITTEE FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OTHER MINISTERIAL COMMITTEES MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS GENERAL INSPECTORATE FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS National Operation Centre for Emergency Situations OTHER OPERATIVE CENTRES MECC-Operative Centre with permanent activity for emergency situations ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION NATIONAL AGENCIES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION REGIONAL AGENCIES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCIES COUNTY COMMITTEES FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS Technical Support Groups for emergency situations management induced by floods, dangerous meteorological situations, accidents at hydraulic structures and accidental pollutions LOCAL COMMITTEES FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OPERATIVE CENTRES COUNTY INSPECTORATES FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS County Operation Centre for Emergency Situations COUNTY WATER MANAGEMENT UNITS OPERATIVE CENTRES POTENTIAL POLLUTION UNITS WATER USERS OTHER HYDRAULIC WORKS OWNERS NMA NHI -WM RMC THE ROMANIAN WATERS NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION OPERATIVE CENTRE WATER DIRECTORATES BASIN COMMITTEES FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OPERATIVE CENTRES

5 Ministry of Environment and Climate Change NA Romanian Water ANAR 2. Actors in flood risk management; MAIN OWNERS OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES FLOOD ACTORS Ministry of Economy Hidroelectrica Ministry of Agriculture NA of Land Reclamation ANIF Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Romsilva -78,905 KM WATERCOURSES -11,135 kilometers irrigation -122 NATURAL LAKES -307 WATER STORAGES WITH 7.2 BIL. CU.M. VOLUME KM DIKES FOR CITIES, VILLAGES, LANDS PROTECTION KM RIVER BANK STABILISATION WORKS KM CANALS -59 PUMPS STATIONS -275 reservoirs with hydropower plant -Pi 6374 MW -irrigation channels 39,738 km - Pipelines buried 3835 km Pumping Stations -Combating soil erosion 57,529 kilometers kilometers dykes on the Danube kilometers dikes in the interior rivers -103 Dams The total area of national forest 6.4 million ha - Public ownership of the state 4.2 million ha (65.6%) Lands covered with forest 6.2 million ha - Public ownership of the state 4.1 million ha (66.1%) County Councils: 41 counties, commune including villages

6 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; According to the European flood risk mapping document prepared by JRC under the Weather Driven Natural Hazards Program, flood risk is defined as the product of three components: RISK=HxExV Hazard (H): occurrence of a natural danger (event), including the probability of this event; Exposure (E): the assets amount and number of inhabitants in the affected area; Vulnerability (V): the lack or loss of resistance to destructive forces or damages. 1. Evaluate the flood hazards in different scenario (probabilities) including climate change impact -Subsequent measures for reducing hazard, mainly structural (dam, polders, dikes, wetlands), need to assure maintenance, rehabilitation of hydraulic infrastructure and operative measures for flood mitigation using reservoirs capacities, dike surveillance etc; 2. Evaluate flood exposure -Need to increase data quality, reliability, reporting and methodology for damage assessment; -Need to create detailed geo-database at national level; improvement of statistic data at village level related with population, assets, etc. 3. Evaluate vulnerability - Subsequent measures for reducing vulnerability, mainly non-structural: need to improving monitoring and forecast systems, assessment of technological associated risk (dam/dike faillure scenario), increase public awareness, increase reaction capacity in case of emergency situation, land use improvement, etc

7 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; Type of measures for achieving objectives

8 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; 1.National Strategy for Flood Risk Management: general framework for objectives and measures River Basin Development Plan (STRATEGIC PLAN for Water Management issues including FLOODS) Floods Defense Plans at the locality, county and river basin district level -adress to operative measures, before, durin g and after floods National Plan for Floods Protection, Prevention and Mitigation (PROJECT having as result hazard and risk maps and FLOOD MEASURES PLANNING)

9 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; National Plan for Floods Protection, Prevention and Mitigation Objectives (main results): flood hazard maps, as a component of the flood risk management plans, required in fact, as well, by the Flood Directive. proposal of certain measures / development scenarios (structural and non-structural measures) a) Study areas delineation b) LIDAR scanning and/or FLI-MAP and aero-photogrametry c) Topographical survey d) Data processing for DTM e) Hydrological analysis; f) Hydraulic modeling 1D or 2D g) Hazard mapping h) Identification of different scenarios of measures to reduce the floods risk i) Strategic Environmental Assessment

10 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION SCHEME- QUALITATIVE APROACH HAZARD (10,100,1000 YRS) HAZARD ASSESSMENT INDEX LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE DEPTH H1 LOW <0.5 m H2 MEDIUM m H2 HIGH >1.5m RISK ASSESSMENT HAZARD VULNERABILITY RISK V1 V2 V3 LOW MEDIUM HIGH H1 LOW R1 R1 R2 H2 MEDIUM R1 R2 R3 H3 HIGH R2 R3 R3

11 3. Flood risk and flood risk reduction in climate change context; Low Medium High <0.5 0,5-1.5 >1.5 CLC CODE LABEL3 First_DESC Continuous urban 111 fabric Spatiu urban continuu Discontinuous 112 urban fabric Spatiu urban discontinuu si spatiu rural Industrial or 121 commercial units Unitati industriale sau comerciale Road and rail networks and 122 associated land Retea de cai de comunicatie si terenuri asociate acestora Autostrazi, EU, National, Gari Judetean Comunal, altele Port areas Zone portuare Airports Aeroporturi Mineral extraction 131 sites Zone de extractie a minereurilor Dump sites Gropi de gunoi Construction sites Zone in constructie Green urban areas Zone urbane verzi Sport and leisure 142 facilities Zone de agrement Non-irrigated arable 211 land Terenuri arabile neirigate Rice fields Terenuri cultivate cu orez Vineyards Vii Fruit trees and berry 222 plantations Livezi Pastures Pasuni secundare Complex cultivation 242 patterns Zone de culturi complexe Land principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of Terenuri predominant agricole in amestec cu 243 natural vegetation vegetatie naturala Broad-leaved forest Paduri de foioase Coniferous forest Paduri de conifere Mixed forest Paduri mixte Natural grasslands Pajisti naturale Moors and 322 heathland Vegetatie subalpina Transitional Zone de tranzitie cu arbusti (in general 324 woodland-shrub defrisate) Beaches, dunes, 331 sands Plaje, dune, renii Bare rocks Stancarii Sparsely vegetated 333 areas Areale cu vegetatie rara Inland marshes Mlastini Peat bogs Turbarii Salt marshes Mlastini sarate Water courses Cursuri de apa Water bodies Acumulari de apa Coastal lagoons Lagune Sea and ocean Mari 0 0 0

12 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANS AT RIVER BASIN LEVEL Flood hazard and risk maps and associated statistics -Based on existing and reliable data -Based on investments plans, River Basin Management Plans and River Basin Arrangement Plans Catalogue of measures Measures related to appropriate objectives and 5 fields of actions: 1. Prevention 2. Protection 3. Awareness 4. Preparedness 5. Recovery Preparedness measures Recovery measures Awareness measures Prevention measures Protection measures

13 Climate change impact: -Increasing of Flash flood threat! Flash Floods is the main cause for fatalities in flood events Needs: -Studies for determination of vulnerable areas in case of Flash Flood; resilience evaluation -Implementation of dedicated software for flash flood warning (Flash Flood Guidance) -Assure dedicated human resources for calibration, data interpretation and warning dissemination

14 CLIMATE CHANGE: NEEDS FOR DAM/DIKE BREAK UPDATED SCENAR Thanks to HKV _NL

15 WATMAN Investment Structure Investment Object Automatic stations with sensors for increasing the safety degree of dams 1.2. Automatic sensor stations for measuring snow layer and gauging stations for inflow discharges, intakes and diversions 1.3. Software and hardware systems for the control and coordination of hydro technical construction exploitation 1.4. Spare parts equipments Investmen nts Automated stations for monitoring structure safety parameters for 72 Dams category A & B, provided with antitheft monitoring system Automated stations for monitoring structure safety parameters for 23 Dams category C; 149 Sensor stations for measuring solid and liquid precipitations 43 Gauging stations along tributaries 37 Discharge measuring stations on diversions 48 Automated Sensor stations at important intakes Software and Hardware at dams (Level 4) Software and Hardware at sub-basinal level SGA Dispatch (Level 3) Software and Hardware at Basin level ABA (Level 2) Software and Hardware at National level ANAR (Level 1) Automated stations spare parts Results Remotely monitor 24 hours/ day the behavior of 95 major dams throughout the country administrated by ANAR, for flood prevention and minimization of flood associated risks Up-to-date automated infrastructure for relevant field data collection for flood management Real time processing and nationwide transmission to decision makers for flood prevention and risks mitigation Ensure fast replacement and ongoing operational equipment

16 WATMAN Investment Structure Investment Object Coordinating Centers Rapid Response Centers 2.2 Automated sensor stations for water quality monitoring 2.3 Spare parts equipments Investme ents 15 Nominated Coordinating Centers nationwide in current institution office location 14 of which are endowed with specialized software and hardware for the coordination of the hydro-technical constructions exploitation 12 Rapid Response Centers with specialized intervention equipment/ endowments against floods 29 Rapid Response Centers with specialized intervention equipment/ endowments against floods and associated pollution accidents 55 Automated stations for measuring quality parameters, located in major pollution locations nationwide Spare equipment Provided specialized personnel for operations Results Implement an adequate coordinating infrastructure at national level for flood management by enhancing decentralized decision and centralized information Implementing an adequate infrastructure at national level for emergency intervention for mitigating flood effects and pollution associated with floods nationwide Automated infrastructure for water quality data collection in major pollution locations nationwide, real time processing and transmission to decision makers for emergency intervention Ensure fast replacement of main parts and ongoing operational equipment

17 WATMAN-Historic and Current Status ANAR s first steps towards the recognized needed modernization of national flood monitoring system and hydro- meteorological prognosis 2003 SIMIN (National Integrated Meteorological System) project implemented 2005 DESWAT Project started, for improving the hydrological prognosis, currently 80% implemented 2005 National Flood Risk Management Strategy 2006 WATMAN Project Feasibility Study Notice 73/ EFM Approval for WATMAN Project Informational System 2006 Pilot Basin Arges 2007 Romania adheres to the EU 2010 National Medium and Long term Strategy for Flood Risk Management Re-actualization of the WATMAN Project FS and project s division in 2 Phases Application Form initially submitted under SOP Environment, Axis 5 Notice 163/ ANAR Approval for WATMAN Project, Phase I BIG DIFFERENCE BEETWEN NEED IDENTIFICATION AND MEASURE IMPLEMENT

18 Multirisk analysis Rorisk Project implementation under National Emergency Situation Inspectorate Task 1 - Analysis of the legal framework, regulatory and institutional framework governing disaster risk management in Romania and in particular the risk assessment to identify gaps and overlaps, and to develop proposals for improvement based. Task 2 - Developing and implementing integration measures Task 3 - Setting up the database elements risk and response, WebGIS application development and GIS portal Activity 4 - Description and assessment of risk scenarios representative of each of the following nine risks: floods, droughts, forest fires, earthquakes, mass movements (landslides, collapses and landslides), Seveso accident, hazardous transportation accidents, nuclear accidents epidemics / zoonoses, based on integration methodology

19 Water field needs - Conclusions : - Second cycle of FD CE 60/2007, needs studies for climate change impact evaluation, flash flood, underground and marine flood additional studies; - Climate change impact, increase flash flood, threat : measures for implementation local warning systems, short intervention, evacuation; - Dam/Dike failure scenario in climate change context; dike reinforcement/replacement tacking into account climate change impact over flows; - Assure proper maintenance works, human resources, buffer budget for floods intervention and emergency works; - Improve statistics, geo-database; - Improve monitoring system and flood forecast; - Improve Emergency Inspectorate capacity for intervention; - Reducing timeline between planning and implementation; - Use mass-media for large scale education programe; - Improve land-use, better planning for development at local level tacking into account flood hazard;

20 Facts for Romania : 2012: -183 fatalities biggest no. in UE evacuated people third place in UE mil Euro from EU Solidarity Fund four place in UE -Total cost of flood impact 6300 mil. Euro seven place UE -43,900 houses damaged biggest no. in UE Study on Economic and Social Benefits of Environmental Protection and Resource Efficiency Related to the European Semester -DG Environment - February 2014 IMPORTANCE OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT

21 Extrap. Cost of Damage (mil EURO) POPULATION GDP/INHAB ($) GDP/INHAB (EURO) Cost/Pop % GDP inhab 1 GERMANY POLAND UK ITALY FRANCE CZECH ROMANIA PORTUGAL AUSTRIA GREECE Romania: Damage cost: 282,2 Euro/Inhab 11 years; 25.6 euro/yrs&inhab (including houses, road, bridges, flood defense infrastructure, etc) Insurance cost for houses: 10euro/yrs rural, 20 euro/yrs urban (?) No. of houses: cca

22 Questions: 1. Additional flood insurance for houses in flooded areas? Witch probability? 2. Resilience: insurance for good affected by floods? euro /rural? 3. Emergency intervention of AN Apele Romane: 2-5 mil/euro&yrs; general insurance for buffer budget? 4. Co-relation with insurance for crops Flood defense infrastructure insurance for protection of agricultural land use? (dikes, drainage system, etc) 5. Standards of costs for damage evaluation?

23 Multumesc! Thank you!