Natural Hazards Risk Mapping in Sweden ISDR

Transcription

1 Natural Hazards Risk Mapping in Sweden ISDR Barbro Näslund-Landenmark Ecologist, Senior advisor Swedish Rescue Services Agency Department of emergency prevention Section for environment, planning and building

2 Hazard and categories Hazard - a potentially damaging physical event that may cause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. ISDR, Hyogo Framework for Action Categories: Small scale loss event, 1-9 deaths Moderate loss event, Severe catastrophe, > 20 Major catastrophe, > 100 Devastating catastrophe, > 500 Great natural catastrophe, thousands of fatalities, hundreds of thousands are left homeless

3 Hydrometeorological wind flood precipitation drought thunder Geological earthquake vulcano landslide erosion Biological epidemics Natural hazards

4 Source: Munich Re 2006 No of Great Natural Hazards

5 Natural Hazards and Disaster Events in Sweden Windstorms heavy winter storms - hurricanes Flash floods and flood inundations Landslides Forest fires Snowstorms

6 Hurricane Gudrun 8-9 Jan 2005 Wind speed up to m/s 75 million m 3 fallen timber 20 fatalities (severe) Economic losses: Ca 25 billion SEK

7 Temporary storages of timber

8 Flash Flood - Fulufjället 1997

9 Flash Flood - Hagfors 2004

10 Flood Inundation - Arvika 2000

11 Completely destroyed

12 Landslide - Göta river valley Tuve 1977 Quick Clay soil Sensitive to vibrations and reduction in salt content 9 fatalities

13 Landslide - Road E6 in Munkedal 2006

14 SNOWSTORM Gävle cm snow layer after three days of snowing Total interruption of transportation, etc

15 FOREST FIRES Boden 2006 Largest documented forest fire ever in Sweden No rain in July 1700 hectares Fire fighting during four weeks

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18 ACTUAL RISK of fire = static status+dynamic status Static: vegetation, topography, biomass, earlier climate etc Dynamic: actual weather/prognosis in near time of wind, precipitation, vegetation etc

19 Swedish forest and grassland fire prognosis system Prognosis system at the website of the SRSA, running from april - october Menu-system - functions - maps - prognosis - data Search function Links to connecting sites and authorities, e.g. SMHI

20 European Forest Fire Information System - EFFIS

21 Municipal Level Risk management Landuse planning

22 Regional Level Supervision Fire and Rescue Services Referral for consideration for Land use planning

23 National Level Supervision Civil Protection Act Supervision Environmental Act Supervision Planning and Building Act

24 SRSA s Preventive work towards natural disasters General Stability Maps General Flood Inundation Maps Governmental Subsidies for preventive measures towards landslides and floodings Research and development Cooperation on national and international levels, EU and UN Information, Education and Training River Coordination groups Database Natural Disasters Lessons Learned

25 General Stability Maps, within build up areas Governmental commission for SRSA since 1986 Areas at risk for landslides, 3 zones with subzonation Covering Sweden Basic data for municipality risk assessment

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27 56 rivers covered General Flood Inundation Map

28 General Flood Inundation Maps Areas at risk of floodings are mapped along rivers Governmental commission for SRSA since 1998 Approx 10% of Swedens rivers will be mapped, priority for km, based on identified risks and passed events 80% are mapped today Two discharges are calculated year flood and - Highest estimated flood according to the guidelines of Swedish Flood Committe, approx year flood Hydraulic model Report and GIS-data

29 General Stability and Flood Inundation Maps Fields of application Basic data for municipality risk assessment General landuse planning Overall planning of fire & rescue service work Detailed survey permanent preventive measures Response action Hydraulic model calculation of current waterlevels and discharges for the ongoing event

30 Protected Area for Ground Water Supply at risk of flooding

31 180 km roads at risk of flooding

32 Important buildings at risk of flooding i.e. Town hall and ABB Main Office stra Ringvägen N yg a ta n gata n éstigen Karlsgatan He U ta nby gatan Engelbre Ö s te r m alm s g a tan Nygatan S tora G a ta n T im m erm ans g a tan S m edje gatan tan S tora To rget H a ntve rk ar ga ta n Sturegatan Södra R ingvägen Kungsgatan an Karlsgatan Kopparbergsvägen M unkg atan a G a ta n S tora G a ta n makargatan Fiskartorget Slottsgatan Källgatan atan epparb ack en

33 ~1000 residents in 22 buildings at risk of flooding

34 River Coordination Groups SRSA commissioned to initiate establishment of river coordination groups within Sweden Watershed based County Administrative Board task to convene, chair of the group Meetings, Seminars and Workshops Spring Flood SRSA called in when required Members; F&R services, landuse planners, Environmental sector, National Road Administration, National Railroad Administration, Water Regulation Enterprises, SMHI, etc

35 Governmental Subsidies Municipalities can apply 40 MSEK/year, 4 M Euro or 5,7 M $ 2006: approx 25 municipalities applied, applications exceeded 6 times available amount of money Commission for SRSA in cooperation with national expert authorities

36 Permanent mitigation

37 Permanent mitigation

38 Permanent mitigation excavation and erosionshelter

39 Permanent mitigation soil nailing

40 Non permanent mitigation - non permanent barriers in depots

41 Climate Change and Vulnerability Changes in return period of 100 year flood, Applied on rivers covered with General Flood Inundation maps

42 Karlstad worst case scenario