Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in. Project Cycle Management

Transcription

1 Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Project Cycle Management

2 Programmes, Activities, Projects (PAP) Programmes, Activities and Projects (PAP) provide good opportunities for mainstreaming DRR in development for reducing existing risks and preventing new risks of disasters o Programmes are schemes or channels through which activities and projects are conceptualized and funded. o Activities are not structured rigidly and may be performed on a continuing basis within or outside the projects o Projects are a set of structured interrelated tasks that are executed over a period of time with certain costs for achieving defined objectives

3 Project Cycle Management Every stage of Project Cycle Management provides good opportunities for mainstreaming DRR

4 Programming Programming is first stage in formulation of project Programming begins with defining goals and objectives and outlining specific tasks to be taken up in project. DRR may not be direct objective of projects, but it may be included as proxy objective of every project Proxy objectives of projects would be to: o Reduce potential threats of any project from disasters o Protecting gains of the project o Ensure that project does not exacerbate existing risks or create new risks of disasters

5 Identification Next phase in project cycle management is to identify tasks that need to be performed and design various structural and non-structural elements of project This involves analysis of problems, needs and interests of all possible stakeholders This provide opportunity to identify hazards, vulnerabilities, exposures and risks of disasters that may impact on project. This provide further opportunity to assess whether project would have any adverse impact on communities or environment Accordingly projects should be designed to minimize such impacts.

6 Appraisal In this phase feasibility of project is studied, taking into account Costs Benefit Analysis (CBA), Internal Rate Of Return (IRR) and other issues. Logical or results-based management frameworks and implementation schedules are developed and required inputs are calculated. CBA is a good entry point for incorporating DRR elements into project - these may enhance project costs but provide longer term benefits to society

7 Financing Financing is not always a separate stage in project cycle as financial decisions may be taken even at identification or appraisal phases Various options for project financing include budgetary support, equity, market borrowing, bonds, external assistance etc. This provides an entry point for considerations of various options of risk financing and risk transfer that may reduce the immediate burden of investment while incorporating elements of risk reduction into project

8 Implementation In this phase project managers have to ensure that all designed standards and specifications are complied and there is no compromise in agreed parameters and processes This is also the phase to o o o Closely monitor progress in implementation Adjust according to changing circumstances, and Do mid-course corrections, if necessary

9 Evaluation Project cycle ends with evaluation and auditing of results achieved and lessons leant. Tools & techniques of project evaluation: o Anticipatory impact analysis such as Environmental Impact Analysis (EIA) and Disaster Impact Analysis (DIA). Such tools are usually applied at the stage of project formulation. o Monitoring & Evaluation (ME) Framework with built in input, process, output, outcome and impact indicators o Concurrent evaluations during the course of project implementation o Performance auditing at conclusion of the project.

10 Tools for Mainstreaming DRR in Project Cycle Management Mainstreaming DRR does not mean that huge fresh investments have to be made in every project Existing investments can be so designed and calibrated that these do not exacerbate the latent risks or create new risks of disasters. Toolkits for mainstreaming DRR in project design and management: o o o o o Marginal Investment Analysis Cost Benefit Analysis Multi-purpose development projects Disaster Impact Analysis Check Lists for disaster risk reduction

11 Marginal Investment Analysis Marginal investment analysis to determine effectiveness of additional investments for disaster risk reduction Marginal costs of earthquake resistant buildings is 2.5% for structural elements and 0.8% for non-structural elements Marginal benefits far exceed replacement costs of structures if these collapse in earthquakes Total marginal costs of all buildings in every seismic zone may make such analysis problematic

12 Cost Benefit Analysis Projects are viable if benefits outweigh costs Difficulties in quantifying benefits of DRR projects: o Uncertain nature of future risk patterns due to dynamic nature of hazards, vulnerabilities, exposures o No uniform standards for assessing effectiveness of risk reduction strategies o Data on vulnerabilities and impacts not available in many contexts and on many values o Techniques applied for quantifying avoided losses and valuing non-market benefits or costs vary and are controversial

13 Empirical evidences China invested USD 3.15 billion in sixties and seventies on flood control measures that averted damages over USD 12 billion Mangrove plantation in Vietnam at a cost of USD 7.2 million reduced costs of maintenance of dykes besides saving lives and property - CBR worked out as high as 52 during Integrated water management and flood protection scheme for Semarang, Indonesia had IRR of 23% and CBR of 2.5 Combined disaster mitigation and preparedness program in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, India had a cost-benefit of 3.76 Benefits of CBDR programme in Bangladesh implemented over a period of fifteen years exceeded costs between 3.05 and school building retrofitted in Kathmandu valley in Nepal under an ADB supported school safety programme withstood the shock of 7.8 magnitude earthquake. CBR estimated 5.9

14 Regulatory framework for CBA Many countries are developing regulations for CBA for building resilience of infrastructures Japan has taken the lead: o Policy Evaluation Act 2001 o Technical Guidelines for Cost Benefit Analysis of Public Work Projects o Guidelines on Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), 2005 o MLIT guidelines for construction projects, 2009

15 Multi-purpose development projects DRR projects do not receive high priority due to competing demands of scarce resources from other priority sectors One way out of this impasse is to design innovative projects that combine long term benefits of risk mitigation with short term benefits of priority sectors Dual or multi- purpose projects can reduce risks of disasters and provide direct economic benefits that enhance both CBR and IRR

16 Three gorges dam of China Supports largest power station of world with installed capacity of 22,500 MW Avoids emission of greenhouse gas equivalent to 100 million tonnes of CO2 Releases 12 cubic kilometers of water for agriculture and industry Enhances shipping capacity of Yangtze River by 10 times Reduces potential risks of major downstream flooding from once every 10 to once in 100 years

17 Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) in Kuala Lumpur 9.7 km long - longest storm water tunnel in South East Asia Tunnel has three levels: o Lowest for drainage o Highest for road traffic o Middle level tunnel can be used for road during dry season and drainage during heavy rainfall This simultaneously solves problem of flash floods and traffic jams during rush hours. This further ensures regular maintenance of drain

18 Disaster Impact Analysis (DIA) Drawing on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) some countries initiated Disaster Impact Assessment (DIA) Sri Lanka Roadmap for Disaster Risk Management ( ) stipulated that DIA shall be integrated into approval process of all development projects Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka developed DIA Check Lists in four parts assessing risks, incorporating risk reduction measures into designs, monitoring during construction and maintenance, and analyzing post- disaster impact assessment. DIA check list was introduced and field tested in road sector and is proposed to be introduced in other sectors Under Comprehensive Disaster Management Project (CDMP) Bangladesh introduced Disaster Impact and Risk Assessment (DIRA) for analysis of all development projects, but detailed guidelines and tools for DIRA are yet to be developed

19 Check Lists for disaster risk reduction Government of India notification of 2009 requiring any new project costing more than INR1000 million to have a Check List for Natural Disaster Impact Assessment Check list provides complete information on hazards, risks and vulnerabilities of the project. These include both (a) probable effects of natural disasters on the project, and (b) possible impacts of the project in creating new risks of disasters. Costs involved in prevention and mitigation of both types of impacts shall be built into project costs and accordingly economics and viability of projects shall be worked out.