Draft DRAFT. Bangladesh s Financing Strategy: What we can learn for the Asia-Pacific region? Goksu Aslan. Bangkok, November 15, 2018

Transcription

1 Bangladesh s Financing Strategy: What we can learn for the Asia-Pacific region? DRAFT Goksu Aslan goksu.aslan@un.org Bangkok, November 15, 2018 Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

2 Overview 1 Introduction 2 Key challenges 3 Cost assessment in SSWA 4 Bangladesh s financing strategy Country overview Financing Strategy Next steps and challenges 5 Lessons & takeaways 6 Key actions 7 Refences Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

3 Introduction Introduction Given the diversity of the Asia-Pacific region, required SDG investment level and composition are likely to vary depending on: Where does the country stand in terms of progress made in achieving SDGs Whether the country has much more costly targets to achieve, requiring infrastructure invesments vs. changing legislation Availability of funding sources, low vs. high tax revenues Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

4 Key challenges Key challenges for LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDSs in SSWA Challenges faced by LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDSs in implementing the 2030 Agenda centre around: Insufficient institutional capacity Data availability and management Social and economic challenges Need for resource mobilization and innovative ways of financing Security concerns especially for Afghanistan Mainstreaming SDGs into local level planning and budgeting, especially for Nepal embarking on implementing a new federal structure of governance. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

5 Key challenges Highlights from South Asia Forum on SDGs South Asia Forum on SDGs organized on 4-5 October 2018 reminded us again: An effective regional cooperation is crucial to achieve SDGs...as well as multistakeholders engagement...and inexpensive and accessible technology and innovation Incoherency among legislation and SDGs and Gender dimension of SDGs need to be taken into account Ensuring that no one is left behind is much more important for South Asia due to the diversity both between and within countries Additionally, recent ESCAP study has pointed out 7 key policy priorities for the SDGs. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

6 Initiatives in SSWA Country level Cost assessment in SSWA Bangladesh: Assessment of financing needs for the SDGs (by Bangladesh Planning Commission/Government of Bangladesh), considering the interconnected nature of the SDGs, shows US$ 928 billion for the entire period of , US$ 66.3 billion per year % of GDP Nepal: SDGs Needs Assessment, Costing and Financing Strategy (by National Planning Commission/Government of Nepal) identifying the major interventions, estimates average required investment as NPR 1770 billion per year % of GDP for the period of India: A Study of Financial Requirements and Gaps (by Technology and Action for Rural Advancement) shows average annual financing gap as INR 35,533 billion (USD billion) Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

7 Cost assessment in SSWA Initiatives in SSWA contd Country level Afghanistan, nationalizing the targets and aligning them with the national planning process, established eight budgetary sectors; Bhutan, taking its 12th Plan as a transition plan to non-ldc status, pointed out the necessity of financing needs assessment; India, overseen by Niti-Aayog, prioritized and mapped the goals and targets to various nodal ministries and flagship programme; Maldives, initiating the work of identifying national priorities, points out the requirement of a technical assistance to develop a monitoring framework; Sri Lanka, aiming at increasing the multi-stakeholder engagement, adopted mainstreaming SDGs into institutional plans; Turkey, aligned its national development plans with the SDGs, stated its interest in learning from other countries experiences. Yet, a formal study on the financing needs assessment have not been done by these countries. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

8 Cost assessment in SSWA Initiatives in SSWA contd State level In India, most of state governments have matched strategic insights from the national development and 2030 agendas with their own specific contexts and priorities. Assam: The first in the country to produce a SDG-oriented state budget in the FY 2016/2017 showing how much will be allocated to which goal. Overall, the biggest allocations are made to SDG 10, SDG 4, SDG 3, and SDG 1 Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Madhya Pradesh are at various stages of their 15-year vision and strategy roadmaps. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

9 Snapshot Bangladesh s financing strategy Country overview High economic growth Graduation from the LDCs: Fulfilled eligibility criteria for the first time in 2018 Incorporated SDGs in its 7th Five-Year Plan Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

10 Financing Strategy Bangladesh s financing strategy Financing Strategy Coverage: 17 goals and around 80 % of the 169 targets of SDGs have been covered Interconnectivity of SDGs: Synchronization process addressing the overlapping targets Two possible growth scenarios: Business as usual (BAU) & 7th Five-Year Plan (FYP) extended growth scenarios Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

11 Methodology Bangladesh s financing strategy Financing Strategy Multiplicative Factor Analysis (MFA) procedure applied for most of the goals Poverty gap analysis, Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) analysis, investment requirement for certain sectors, and block allocation for some targets are the other methods applied. Overlapping issues arising from the interrelatedness of the SDGs are addressed using synchronization process among SDG Two possible scenarios: BAU where the average annual growth rate of real GDP considered to be 7% from FY2017 to FY2030 and 7th 5-Year Plan extended growth scenario where the GDP growth rate is projected to be 9% by FY2030 Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

12 Bangladesh s financing strategy Financing Strategy How much SDGs cost in Bangladesh? Under 7th 5-Year Plan extended growth scenario: The total additional unsynchronized cost for FY : BDT 118, billion (USD billion) at constant prices The total additional synchronized cost for FY : BDT 94, billion (USD billion) at constant prices, 19.75% of the accumulated GDP Under BAU: The total additional cost: The total additional synchronized cost for FY : BDT 277, billion (USD 2, billion) at constant prices. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

13 Next steps Bangladesh s financing strategy Next steps and challenges Financing for the period of FY would come on average: 34% from public sector 42% from private sector 6% from PPP 4% from NGOs Relevant ministries allocated 78% of their total expenditure for SDGs related programs & projects. Seeking external financing through FDI, aiming at improving its business environment, reducing the cost of doing business and facilitate domestic environment, the government invited Japan, China, and India to set up SEZs. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

14 Challenges Bangladesh s financing strategy Next steps and challenges Unavailability of some of the indicators No specific target provided in the SDGs for the LDCs Unquantifiable nature of some indicators Overlapping issues among the targets Need for improvement in implementation Yet the country lags behind in terms of tax revenue potential which should be enhanced. Having capacity gaps, the country needs and seeks technical assistance to meet the eligibility to access the Green Climate Fund (GCF) which will a create major impact for further financing Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

15 Lessons & takeaways Lessons & takeaways Regional/subregional cooperation is key to accelerate the process Countries can learn each other s experiences A common platform addressing data gaps through capacity building, experience & knowledge sharing A cost assessment is ambitious but feasible According to their recent VNR reports, Bhutan points out the necessity of financing needs assessment, Maldives points out the requirement of a technical assistance to develop a monitoring framework, Sri Lanka adopted mainstreaming SDGs into institutional plans aiming at increasing the multi-stakeholder engagement. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

16 Key actions Key actions Recent study by UNESCAP SSWA Office, considering the interconnectivity and links among SDGs, identifies 7 key policy priorities: Creating jobs through a balanced economic transformation through sustainable industrialization Providing essential basic services to all and accelerate sustainable infrastructure development Providing universal access to education and health to empower the youth Providing universal social protection and financial inclusion Addressing food security and hunger through sustainable agricultural productivity improvements Promoting gender equality and women s entrepreneurship Enhancing environmental sustainability through low-carbon climate-resilient pathways Following a harmonious approach on SDGs, by focusing on these priorities, these costs may be reduced minimized. Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

17 Main references Refences Government of Bangladesh (2017) SDG Financing Strategy: Bangladesh Perspective. Available from Government of Nepal, National Planning Commission (2017) Nepal Sustainable Development Goals, Status and Roadmap: Available from SDG_Report_final_version.pdf UNDP (2017) Good Practices Integrating the SDGs into Development Planning home/library/sustainable-development/country-briefs-on-sdg-integration-into-planning.html United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, South and South-West Asia Office (2018) Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in South Asia: Key Policy Priorities and Implementation Challenges. Available from achieving-sustainable-development-goals-south-asia-key-policy-priorities-and High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (2016, 2017, 2018) Voluntary National Reviews. Available from sustainabledevelopment.un.org/memberstates High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (2017) Voluntary National Review Report on the Implementation of SDGs. Available from sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/16693india.pdf Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (2015) Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in India, A Study of Financial Requirements and Gaps. Available from Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18

18 Refences Thank you Goksu Aslan EGM - SDG Costing Bangkok, November 15, / 18