Science for DRM 2020: acting today, protecting tomorrow. Table of Contents. Forward Prepared by invited Author/s

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1 : acting today, protecting tomorrow Table of Contents Forward Prepared by invited Author/s Preface Prepared by DRMKC Editorial Board Executive Summary Prepared by Coordinating Lead Authors 1. Introduction In recent years, science has gained prominence in DRM policy frameworks. Its role has been recognized as an enabler to understand, communicate and manage disaster risk, while industry and the private sector have increasingly been investing in scientific and evidence-based corporative risk assessment. In parallel, the role of policy makers, practitioners and citizens has been growing and increasingly recognized, developing more complex relations among relevant stakeholders. This Chapter will be coordinated by the Editors, and delivered by invited Authors with the support of selected Reviewers Review of hazard related risks affecting the EU Based on the DRMKC flagship Report Science for DRM 2017: knowing better and losing less, and on the EC Staff Working Document Overview of Natural and Man-made Disaster Risks the European Union may face (2017), a brief review of the main hazards affecting the EU is presented, according to its different origins and features. It should also provide an overview on the evolution of key hazard related risks until the end of the century considering climate change.

2 1.2. Moving towards prevention: from Disaster Management to Disaster Risk Management There is a clear change of scope and language in both EU and international DRM policies and agreements, shifting from a merely responsive approach to disasters, strictly focused on disaster management, to a risk management approach, involving the whole disaster cycle (prevention, preparedness, response and recovery) and all relevant stakeholders. Relevant DRM legislation and policies is to be revised on the light of this shift, to analyze how the different policies could be better reinforcing their links on the bases of a common need for a more solid and evidence-based scientific ground, towards a more coherent and efficient implementation. This analysis should be done at the level of: a) Global agreements b) EU/national policies c) National Risk Assessments, National Management Plans d) and any other framework for action 1.3. Local solutions for global disaster risks Scientific knowledge serves political, technical and operational actions from societies facing risks. While problems are Global, solutions are context related and hence locally based, with no one-size fitting all, as commonly said. Local solutions will have a Global impact when developed in a coherent evidence-based manner. Bridging the existing theoretical background and global frameworks with the adopted local solutions is a key element of disaster risk management, which needs to be coupled with effective multi-disciplinary partnerships and innovative approaches at the site level, as to integrate all hazards, sectors and stakeholders involved. 2. Integrating the Disaster Risk Management Cycle Coordinating Under an integrated Disaster Risk Management approach, it is crucial to inform and involve all relevant stakeholders, with citizens as final end-users of science-based policies and actions. Covering the whole risk management cycle and understanding what are the tools, policies and actors relevant at each phase is a prerequisite for an effective prevention, mitigation and adaptation, together with a continuous reduction of disaster risks, and a more resilient society.

3 2.1. Risk Assessment This sub-chapter will cover the key elements to be included in a risk assessment at different territorial levels, covering different hazards and their interrelations. As per definition, this first step of the risk management cycle should bring all relevant stakeholders to a common understanding of the risks faced by a community and of their relative priority. Scientific, technical and operational tools available to reach such understanding are to be reviewed and discussed, focusing on the EU Civil Protection Mechanism and its National Risk Assessment requirements Risk Management Planning This sub-chapter covers the societal planning of how each risk can be reduced, by designing selected and best tailored prevention, preparedness, response and recovery measures. Such planning needs to indicate the required resources and timelines, assign responsibilities, and aim to an integrated cross-sectorial and multi-risk approach. Engagement of all relevant stakeholders, including citizens, should be ensured in Risk Management Plans Implementing Risk Management Measures This sub-chapter will focus on how societies may assess their ability to implement the measures identified in the risk management planning phase, including the set out and allocation of responsibilities and resources, the monitoring duties and available tools, as well as an evaluation process feeding back the whole cycle from response and recovery to prevention and preparedness. Tailor-made governance schemes engaging the most relevant stakeholders need to be in place to efficiently implement the Risk Management Plans. 3. Assets at Risk and Potential Impacts This Chapter collects expertise on the main sectors and assets impacted by disasters, covering the most relevant hazards in the context of the current and future EU exposure and vulnerability. This approach aims to better connect and link scientific knowledge across the whole DRM cycle, to the

4 key societal components affected by disasters and the sectorial policies governing it policies that to a variable degree, always embed some level of risk management within its structure. Relevant interconnections and dependencies from each sector with others shall be considered and assessed, including systemic linkages among sectors across space and time Methodologies for Disasters Impact Assessment CLA This introductory sub-chapter reviews and discusses current methodologies used for assessing the impacts of disasters, setting the theoretical background for the following sub-chapters. It will cover different methodologies used at different space and time scales, providing a range of operational tools to be deployed according to each specific context. Data management issues on both pre- and post-event situations is to be tackled Population Coordinating This sub-chapter covers the hazards and multi-hazards that cause or might cause more fatalities and/or directly affect more people across the EU, as well as the main drivers of societal exposure and vulnerability that determine the disaster occurrence. Available risk metrics and actions to reduce exposure and/or vulnerability need to be considered together with mitigation and adaptation measures. The analysis includes the following core threats and their interactions: a. Life threat b. Housing/habitat threat c. Society/externally affected Life threat This specific sub-chapter addresses the hazards and related vulnerability that mostly threat human lives in the EU, either by death, injury or other health damage. The analysis should cover both directly impacting events (e.g. earthquake-triggered building collapse) and indirectly ones (e.g. heatwave surplus mortality).

5 Housing/habitat threat This specific sub-chapter shall cover the hazards and related vulnerability that affect the housing and/or overall habitat of people, forcing them to evacuation, relocation, or homeless condition. Relations with life threat conditions and external impacts (i.e. outside the affected area) ought to be defined, as well as impacts of multihazard events Society/externally affected This specific sub-chapter assesses the hazards and related vulnerability causing more significant numbers of migrants and refugees, both from affected areas within the EU, and from affected areas outside the EU, where the EU is a receiver of these flows and therefore indirectly affected by such disasters. The potential positive impact of migration should be considered as well in order to have a complete overview of the situation Economic Sectors Coordinating This sub-chapter covers the hazards and multi-hazards that cause more damage to the productive activities of society, both in terms of economic value and affected livelihoods. It shall tackle the main drivers of societal exposure and vulnerability that determine the disaster occurrence, consider available risk metrics for each sector, and assess actions to reduce exposure and/or vulnerability. The following key sectors (and possibly others) and their interactions shall be analysed: a. Residential b. Agriculture c. Industry and energy d. Private services Residential This specific sub-chapter will tackle the residential buildings and dwellings directly damaged or destroyed by hazards, assess its exposure and analyse its vulnerability conditions. Methods for economic valuation of impacts shall be discussed, as well as other risk metrics related to the

6 residential sector, including proxies and other estimation methods. Legislation and standards for reducing vulnerability of buildings and dwellings need to be addressed Agriculture This specific sub-chapter will address direct economic losses to the agricultural sector, comprising crops, livestock, forestry, aquaculture, fisheries, and other side products. Exposure patterns and vulnerability conditions shall be analysed in face of the most significant hazards and damages to the sector. Risk metrics ought to be considered, both in terms of production and assets losses Industry and energy This specific sub-chapter shall cover the nature of hazards, exposure and vulnerability conditions causing most economic damage to the secondary sector, namely to industries and energy production systems. Risk metrics, estimation methods and other relevant tools for economic valuation of losses need to be considered Private services This specific sub-chapter will tackle the economic losses caused by disasters to the tertiary sector, particularly focusing on the losses to private services, businesses and companies. This analysis should include the analysis of both direct physical damage to assets and structures, and indirect losses to revenues and production due to disruption of services, supply chains or demand Critical Infrastructures Coordinating This sub-chapter covers the hazards and multi-hazards that have more potential to affect or damage infrastructures which are critical to society and to its capacity to respond and cope with disasters. It shall tackle the main drivers of societal exposure and vulnerability that determine the disaster occurrence, consider available risk metrics for each sector, and assess actions to reduce exposure and/or vulnerability.

7 The following key sectors and their interactions shall be analysed: a. Public facilities b. Network infrastructures c. Core industrial and energy power plants d. Communication systems Public facilities This specific sub-chapter will assess the impact of disasters to critical public facilities, namely those related to health and education, but also other public services of great importance to risk management in all its phases, from response to prevention (such as firemen, police and military facilities, financial and statistical services, among others). A review of critical hazards, exposure and vulnerability conditions, should ground the whole sub-chapter analysis Network infrastructures This specific sub-chapter shall cover the risk conditions greatly affecting key network and grid infrastructures, such as transportation (airports, railways, roads, ports), power lines, pipelines (gas, oil, water, sewers, others), etc. The analysis ought to be based on a thorough review of the critical hazards, exposure and vulnerability conditions greatly impacting these infrastructures Core industrial and energy facilities This specific sub-chapter will tackle the hazards, societal exposure and vulnerability conditions that affect more strongly core industries and energy sources that are critical to the EU. It may include chemical and oil industries, coal power plants, nuclear facilities, dams, and others considered critical according to their strategic/territorial relevance. Direct and indirect impacts across other sectors must be taken into account Communication systems This specific sub-chapter will target communication systems in particular, given the high level of dependency of present EU society. It shall cover both hard and soft infrastructures and networks,

8 including fibre cables, mobile sign stations, satellite services and IT supportive systems. Direct and indirect impacts need to be considered, in the context of the dominant hazards, societal exposure and vulnerability conditions analysed Environment and Ecosystems Coordinating This sub-chapter covers the hazards and multi-hazards most harmful and/or damaging to the environment, both in terms of its natural assets and of the ecosystem services embedded. It shall tackle the main drivers of societal exposure and vulnerability that determine the disaster occurrence, consider available risk metrics, and assess actions to reduce exposure and/or vulnerability. The following two categories, as well as their interactions with other sectors, need to be considered: a. Ecosystem services b. Environmental assets Ecosystem services This specific sub-chapter will analyse the core impacts of disasters, and the hazard exposure vulnerability conditions on its foreground, affecting and disrupting ecosystem services that support greatly the EU territory and society. The analysis is likely to include water purification, carbon sequestration, soil formation, and other key basic services upon which EU society relies. The potential of green infrastructures and nature-based solutions for DRM is to be duly considered Environmental assets This specific sub-chapter shall assess the most significant impacts of disasters on environmental assets, both in terms of natural resources (water, soil, biodiversity, air) and societal values (parks, forests, game, etc.), considering both the nature of hazards, and the exposure and vulnerability conditions that jointly determine the impact level.

9 3.6. Cultural Heritage Coordinating This sub-chapter covers the impacts of disasters on cultural heritage sites and assets. This includes buildings, monuments and fixed infrastructure, mobile cultural heritage assets, as well as immaterial heritage meaningful for disaster risk management, such as traditional practices and social organization of local communities. Beyond the physical damage, and the obviously intangible value of cultural heritage, direct and indirect economic impacts ought to be tackled, including its highly relevant value in terms of tourism and economic activity for many EU regions. 4. Communicating Disaster Risk to All Coordinating Chapter 4 aims to cover the core components of disaster risk communication, analysing how different governance levels, different stakeholders and actors, and different components of the disaster risk management cycle interact and connect between them. It shall directly address critical issues to ensure an effective linkage from disaster management during response and recovery (postevent), to disaster risk management for preparedness and prevention (pre-event), and assess the effectiveness of communication tools and methods both on crisis and peace time Linking stakeholders, sectors and governance levels This sub-chapter will tackle the communication challenges arising between different actors, at different governance levels and across the whole disaster risk management cycle. The analysis shall focus on "soft communication", covering political strategies, strategic engagement narratives, disaster perception, institutional cooperation and conflict, and other related issues, in close connection with the "hard communication" tools supporting it. Data and information access, availability, terminology and standards are all aspects also to be considered.

10 4.2. Citizen participation and public awareness This sub-chapter is dedicated to the participation and role of citizens and their organisations in the disaster risk management cycle, and on how such role may be enhanced and substantially increased. The analysis shall consider information and decision flows with governmental, non-governmental, corporate, and other key actors at different stages of the disaster cycle, and provide case studies to illustrate best practices across the EU. The production, contents and dissemination of risk information to citizens is also to be tackled Integrating tools for prevention and response communication systems This sub-chapter targets the "hard communication" tools and policies across the disaster risk management cycle, assessing how efficiently they respond to the needs of the different actors and sectors involved. The new IT mix, integrating new and old media, shall be assessed in terms of its potential and constraints to contribute to more adaptive and effective response and prevention systems (including emergency call-out and early warning, as well as coverage of the digitally excluded). 5. Global Synergies of EU Expertise Coordinating This Chapter will explore the potential synergies between the EU experience and praxis on disaster risk management, with those outside the EU. It shall point best practices and innovative solutions developed elsewhere around the world, as well as the global connections and networks that the EU, and that may contribute to disseminate and share the outcome of the present Report. The focus should be on the transfer of knowledge and technology worldwide.

11 6. Conclusions and Final Recommendations 6.1. To scientists 6.2. To policy-makers 6.3. To practitioners 6.4. To citizens 6.5. Future challenges This final Chapter draws on the key messages from earlier chapters, summarising the results of the report for the target audiences/stakeholders: science experts, policy-makers, practitioners and citizens, emphasising the role of each group in disaster risk reduction, and the available solutions they can contribute to. Crosscutting topics (climate change, health, risk transfer and financing) also need to be fully addressed, as well as the interactions between sectors, stakeholders, and governance levels. Overall, the chapter will aim to summarise the existing scientific knowledge on the integration of disaster risk management into overall policies, and to point out specific solutions for an effective risk reduction on each of the main affected sectors and components of society, with a geographic focus on the EU but looking for synergies with policies and strategies across the globe. This Chapter will be delivered jointly by the Coordinating Lead Authors, revised and assisted by the Editorial Board.