Engineers Ireland Annual Conference

Transcription

1 Engineers Ireland Annual Conference MANAGING FLOOD RISK AND BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Mark Adamson Office of Public Works 15 th May, 2015

2 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND RECENT FLOODS November 2009: >1,600 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 250m October 2011: Nearly 1,700 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 130m NATIONAL PFRA (2011) Appx. 70,000 Homes at Risk (in Undefended Floodplains) NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (OEP / GTF) Flooding: No. 1 National Risk

3 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SEA LEVEL RISE : Rise of 190mm Current Rate of Rise: 3.2mm/yr 500mm Rise in MSL (MRFS): Risk nearly Doubles in Existing Coastal Risk Areas FLUVIAL, PLUVIAL & GROUNDWATER No Significant Signal for Change in Annual Rainfall Projected Wetter Winters / Warmer Summers Potential for Increase in Flooding: Uncertain!

4 FLOOD RISK IS A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE! LIKELY TO GET WORSE! WHAT ARE WE DOING TO UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE FLOOD RISK?

5 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Minor Drainage Schemes Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 River-basin Arterial Drainage / Embankment Schemes A.D. (Amendment) Act, 1995 Local, Urban Flood Protection Schemes

6 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT NATIONAL FLOOD POLICY REVIEW: 2004 OPW: Lead Agency Proactive, Catchment-based Approach Flood Mapping Flood Risk Management Plans Flood Risk Management, rather than just Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes): Prevention Protection Preparedness (Resilience)

7 EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 TRANSPOSED: SI No. 122 of 2010 KEY REQUIREMENTS Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment Flood Maps Flood Risk Management Plans OTHER PROVISIONS Co-ordination with WFD implementation Trans-boundary co-operation Public dissemination / engagement

8 PFRA BASED ON: Historical Records Predictive Assessment (Fluvial, Pluvial Coastal, Groundwater Indicative Mapping + FRI Analysis) Stakeholder Consultation PUBLIC CONSULTATION COMPLETED 2011: 300 AFAs

9 PFRA

10 CFRAM STUDIES CFRAM PROGRAMME Outcome of National Flood Policy Review, 2004 Compatible with FD Requirements, 2007 Flood Maps FRMPs Pilot Studies: Lee, Dodder, Fingal East Meath: National Programme:

11 SCOPE OF WORK Survey 10,000km2 LiDAR-based DTM Appx. 7,000km Channel (topo) Survey Data Collection Hydrology FSU Web-Portal (On-line Flood Estimation Tool) Hydraulics / Flood Mapping

12 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS 300 AFAs m X-Section Spacing LiDAR Floodplain Surveys 1D-2D Dynamically-Linked Models 2,500 kms of MPWs 500m X-Section Spacing IFSAR Floodplain Surveys 1D Models

13 FLOOD MAPS Communities, Incl 90 Coastal Communities - Appx. 4,000 kms Detailed Flood Mapping - Appx. 2,500 kms Other Mapped River - Inform Sustainable Planning, Emergency Response Planning & Resilience

14 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS Current Scenario Mapping 8 Probabilities Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone, Risk Maps

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21 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS Current Scenario Mapping 8 Probabilities Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone, Risk Maps Future Scenario Mapping Representative Climate Futures MRFS / HEFS (+20/30% Qp, 500/1000mm MSL Rise) Public Consultation >200 PCDs (Completed) Formal SI Consultation

22 CFRAM PROGRAMME Flood Maps Risk Analysis FRMPs Flood Risk Management Options SEA / Appropriate (Habitats) Assessment Flood Risk Management Plan

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24 PROTECTION MINOR WORKS: 29m Approved for 430 Projects since 2009 Delivery of CFRAM Outcomes (< 0.5m) MAJOR SCHEMES: 32 Schemes Completed 8 Schemes In Construction & 23 Schemes In Design / Planning Schemes as Outcomes of CFRAM Programme Capital Programme: 250m++?

25 PREPAREDNESS (RESILIENCE) FLOOD WARNING Local Flood Warning Systems (Clonmel, Mallow, Fermoy) National Tidal & Storm Surge Forecasting Alert System Waterlevel.ie (real-time water level data) Radar-based Flood Forecasting

26 PREPAREDNESS (RESILIENCE) FLOOD WARNING FLOOD EVENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE Guidance & Template Plans (MEM Framework) AWARENESS, PREPAREDNESS & RESILIENCE 2005: National Plan, Prepare, Protect Campaign & Floodmaps.ie Updated 2014 Bring down to Local Level with CFRAM Mapping

27 THE CFRAM PROGRAMME WILL HELP US UNDERSTAND CURRENT & POTENTIAL FUTURE FLOODING AND FLOOD RISK AND HELP REDUCE EXISTING FLOOD RISK HOW CAN WE MAINTAIN AND DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES INTO THE FUTURE?

28 CFRAM STUDIES CLIMATE CHANGE Future Scenario Mapping Representative Climate Futures Optioneering Risk-based, Using MRFS/HEFS Change in Risk Low: Design for Now Check for Adaptability Medium: Adaptive Management Approach - Qualitative High: Adaptive Management Approach - Quantitative Influence Choice and Design of Measures & Management Strategies

29 FRM SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN SCOPE Adaptation within FRM Activities CFRAM Programme & Flood Relief Schemes Arterial Drainage Maintenance Programme Reservoirs, Raised Canals, Urban Drainage Outline of Work-Streams & Actions Research Requirements Assessments, Design Approaches & Operational Requirements Coordination & Capacity Building Monitoring & Review

30 PREVENTION PLANNING GUIDELINES OPW DoECLG Initiative Launched: November 2009 Framework For Sustainable Planning Principles Sequential Approach Flood Zones (Based on FRA, Undefended) Land Use Vulnerability Appropriate Development Justification Test

31 PREVENTION PLANNING GUIDELINES Framework For Sustainable Planning Sustainable Planning is Critical for Sustainable FRM and Sustainable Communities Avoids Creation of New Risks Reduces Future Demands for Resources for FRM Lot of Work Required to Solve Existing Problems Let s Not Create New Ones!

32 PREVENTION CLIMATE CHANGE Flood Zones based on Current Risk Precautionary Approach Req d re Climate Change Assumptive Approach Leave future floodplains clear of development Define minimum floor levels with CC allowance Adaptive Approach Allow space for flood protection measures Ensure land-use / development is adaptable

33 BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Floods are Here and are Going to Stay and will Probably Get Worse! We Need to Live with the Floods HOW?

34 BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Understanding Flood Risk CFRAM Programme Delivering Flood Maps Further Development in Future Cycles Existing Flood Risk Areas Existing Capital Works & FRM Programme CFRAM Programme Delivering FRMPs Strategic, Catchment-Based Long-Term Plans Capital Works (FRS, Minor Works), Preparedness Consideration of Climate Change

35 BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Integrated Planning Flooding is not a Barrier to Building Sustainable Communities Building Sustainable Communities must account for Flood Risk FRM should be Designed to Enhance Places Greater Engagement between Planning and FRM Sectors Thinking Beyond Water Quality, Biodiversity,

36 BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES MEANS BUILDING SAFE, QUALITY PLACES PLACES WE WOULD BE HAPPY FOR OUR CHILDREN TO LIVE, WORK AND PLAY IN PLACES WHERE THE FLOOD RISK IS UNDERSTOOD AND MANAGED

37 Engineers Ireland Annual Conference MANAGING FLOOD RISK AND BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Mark Adamson Office of Public Works 15 th May, 2015