AUSTRALIAN MARKETS WEEKLY

Transcription

1 4 March 219 AUSTRALIAN MARKETS WEEKLY Back in black the return to surplus In this issue Back in blackerror! Bookmark Calendar of economic releases 4 Forecasts 5 To contact NAB s market experts, please click on one of the following links: Ask the Economists Ask the FX Strategists Ask the Interest Rate Strategists The RBA meets on Tuesday, where no change to the cash rate is expected, although we will be watching for any shift in tone, particularly when housing indicators suggest that the RBA is too optimistic on the outlook for construction. On Wednesday, Governor Lowe is speaking on The Housing Market and the Economy. We think that Lowe's speech will the cover key channels by which the current housing downturn can affect the macroeconomy. In this respect, he will likely downplay the wealth effect from lower house prices, but it will be important if he signals that the Bank is reconsidering the forecast profile for housing activity. There is a flood of data releases, with Q4 GDP the highlight. NAB expects Q4 GDP growth was modest, printing.4% q/q/2.6% y/y (mkt:.5%/2.7%; RBA: 2.8%). January data for retail sales will also be important, where NAB forecasts a.3% lift in sales (mkt:.3%). Offshore this week, US non-farm payrolls is the highlight, the consensus view of a +.3% m/m print average hourly earnings would put annual growth at 3.3% y/y, equaling a multi-year high. In China, the Caixin services PMI (Tuesday) and Trade (Friday) are the highlights. The National People's Congress (5 to 15 March) begins on Tuesday where Premier Li Keqiang will announce the 219 economic growth target. In 218, the target was 'around 6.5%'. The focus will be on any detail on how Chinese authorities intend to support growth in the face of trade-related headwinds. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday, with a growing debate on whether the Governing Council will formally push back its timing of a rate rise from late summer to end December or even into 22. While the extended run of weak data suggests the ECB will do this, we wonder if President Draghi will hold off given he has time to see if the data improve. In this weekly, we look at the turnaround in the budget, where our analysis suggests that the budget returned to surplus in the second half of 218, driven by strong growth in revenue. The budget already includes some election giveaways, but we see pressure for more election commitments given the polls continue to point to a change of government, especially with the better-than-expected starting point for the budget. kaixin.owyong@nab.com.au Key markets over the past week Last % chg week Last bp/% chg week AUD RBA cash 1.5 AUD/CNY y swap AUD/JPY ASX 2 6,224.6 AUD/EUR Iron ore AUD/NZD WTI oil Source: Bloomberg Chart of the week: The budget is likely back in surplus Quarterly sum of monthly data ($b) Unadjusted data Seasonally adjusted Trend Note: The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates were calculated by NAB. Kieran Davies, Director, Economics, Markets National Australia Bank Limited ABN AFSL and Australian Credit Licence

2 Australian Markets Weekly 4 March 219 Back in black the return to surplus The federal government has brought forward the budget to 2 April given the election is planned for May. Our analysis of the monthly financial data suggests that the budget returned to surplus in H2 218 on the back of strong growth in revenue, although there has been a deterioration in early 219. The budget already includes provision for further personal income tax cuts, although this is small as a share of GDP. With the polls continuing to point to a change of government, we see pressure to offer more election sweeteners, particularly given the better starting point for the budget. Notwithstanding the faster-than-expected return to surplus, we are concerned by the sharp slowdown in growth in taxes in early 219. We plan to do more analysis to see how this fits with other indicators pointing to a broader economic slowdown in late 218. The NSW election is on 23 March and a federal election is planned in May Politics does not always excite financial markets, but the coming months are important with a state election in New South Wales on 23 March and a federal election planned for May. The exact date of the federal election has not been announced but could be either 11 or 18 May given Easter holidays in April. The 18 May is the latest possible date for the typical simultaneous half-senate and House of Representatives election). This suggests that the Prime Minister will likely call the election on either 8 or 15 April. Polling points to a very close contest in NSW and a change of federal government in May In New South Wales, the Liberal-National Coalition holds a 54.3%/45.7% margin over the opposition Labor Party, calculated on a two-party preferred basis. Polling is undertaken less often at the state level, but polls have suggested since late 218 that the New South Wales election will be very close at about 5%/5%.F1 Nationally, the Liberal-National Coalition has a much narrower margin over the Labor Party of 5.4%/49.6%. In this case, though, the polling has pointed to a change of government for more than two years (see, for example, the Newspoll results in Chart 1). The federal budget has been brought forward to 2 April With the federal government planning on holding the election in May, the budget is due early this year, brought forward from 14 May to 2 April. Given the time it takes to prepare the budget, we think that much of the work on the statement would have been done by now, although the estimates will be updated for Q4 GDP, which is due this Wednesday. The budget will be updated by the Secretaries of Treasury and the Department of Finance in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook, although 1 For example, see the ReachTel, Newspoll and Essential polls reported at we expect this will add little new information given that it will be released shortly after the budget itself.1f2 Chart 1: Newspoll shows the Labor Party still has a large lead over the Liberal/National coalition LNP Coalition vote minus ALP vote (pp) Note: The data are interpolated between polling dates. Source: Australian Electoral Commission, Newspoll, National Australia Bank Monthly data suggest that the budget may be back in surplus sooner than the government forecast The government is currently forecasting a return to surplus in 219-2, estimating a surplus of.2% of GDP for the underlying cash balance (see Chart 2). That said, in November 218 the Prime Minister raised the prospect that the budget could be in surplus sooner when he said that the April budget would be a surplus budget.2f3 Chart 2: The federal government is forecasting a return to surplus in % of financial-year nominal GDP Newspoll opinion poll - federal voting intention (2-party preferred basis) Recession Government forecast Source: Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank Our view, though, is that the budget may already be back in surplus, based on our analysis of the government s monthly financial statements. The rolling annual sum of the volatile monthly figures has shown sharp improvement, narrowing from a deficit of $.1b in the year to June 218 to $1.6b in the year to December 218 (see Chart 3). That said, the rolling annual sum widened to $3.8b in January, suggesting that there was some deterioration in early 219. Summing the monthly numbers into quarters, our rough seasonal adjustment of the data suggests that the budget was slightly in surplus in the second half of 218, 2 Under the Charter of Budget Honesty, the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook is due within days of the issue of writs for a general election. 3 Journalists asked the Prime Minister when exactly the budget would be in surplus, but the answer was unclear. See the transcript of the joint press conference with the Treasurer, held on 27 November 218 ( NAB Markets Research 2

3 Australian Markets Weekly 4 March 219 averaging about $.8b per quarter. Again, though, we are mindful that the budget may have slipped in early 219 based on the January data. This interpretation is reinforced by the ABS national accounts measure of the underlying budget balance, which returned to a slight surplus of.3% of GDP in Q3 218 (Q4 data are due out on 28 March). Chart 3: There has been a sharp improvement in the rolling annual sum of the monthly budget data Rolling 12-month sum/financial year outcomes and forecasts ($b) Note: The rolling annual sum was calculated using unadjusted monthly data. Chart 4: Our rough seasonal adjustment of the data shows the budget in surplus in the second half of 218 Quarterly sum of monthly data ($b) Rolling annual sum Financial year outcome Note: The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates were calculated by NAB. Chart 5: The national accounts measure of the budget returned to suplus in Q3 218 Note: Seasonally adjusted data. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Australia Bank Govt financial year forecast Net lending (% of quarterly nominal GDP) 5 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted data Trend National accounts measure of underlying budget balance The turnaround in the budget has been driven by strength in revenue The sharp turnaround in the budget has been driven by increased revenue, where annual growth in trend terms held at % for almost all of 218. This is the fastest growth since the economy pulled out of the global financial crisis. This contrasts with annual growth in total outlays, which has been steady at a relatively modest 4% in trend terms since 216. The improvement in revenue has reflected stronger taxes, where annual growth in trend terms peaked at 11% in early 218 and is currently running at 7%, which is the slowest growth since early 217. The strength in taxes mainly reflects strength in income tax. Chart 6: The improvement in the budget has been driven by strong growth in revenue Trend estimate of monthly data (% 3m change on a year ago) Underlying cash revenue and outlays Outlays Total revenue Taxes Note: The seasonally smoothed estimates were constructed by NAB. The government is likely to be tempted to bump up its election giveaways The budget already includes some election giveaways, with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, including roughly $9b of revenue decisions taken but not yet announced, code for personal income tax cuts. Although these giveaways appear large in dollar terms, they are summed over the period from to On our calculation, the cuts equate to about.1% of GDP in 219-2, which suggests to us that the government may well be tempted to use the better starting point for the budget to make additional election promises. We are monitoring the recent slowdown in growth in taxes Although we see a clear opportunity for the government to offer more election giveaways, we are concerned at the recent sharp slowdown in growth in taxes. This is important because other indicators point to a broader slowdown in activity at the end of 218, such that we plan to examine the tax data more closely to see if we can get a better picture of the state of the economy in Q The Labor Party aims for larger surpluses Finally, note that if there is a change of government, the Labor Party is aiming for larger surpluses over the medium- to longer-term than forecast by the Liberal-National Coalition.3F4 In our view, we think that the timing of this objective could be reassessed given the risk that growth remains subpar for longer. kieran.davies@nab.com.au 4 See Opposition Treasurer Chris Bowen, A Shorten Labour Government s approach to budget and fiscal policy, 16 May 218 ( NAB Markets Research 3

4 Australian Markets Weekly 4 March 219 CALENDAR OF ECONOMIC RELEASES Country Economic Indicator Period Forecast Consensus Actual Previous GMT AEDT Monday, 4 March 219 EC PPI MoM / YoY Jan.3/ / US Construction Spending MoM Dec Tuesday, 5 March 219 AU AiG Perf of Services Index Feb NZ ANZ Commodity Price Feb AU Government Finances 4Q AU BoP Current Account Balance 4Q AU Net Exports of GDP 4Q JN Nikkei Japan PMI Services Feb CH Caixin China PMI Services Feb CH Caixin China PMI Composite Feb AU RBA Cash Rate Target 5 Mar GE Markit Germany Services PMI Feb F UK Financial Policy Committee minutes from Feb. 26 meeting EC Retail Sales MoM / YoY Jan 1.3/ / US Markit US Services PMI Feb F US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Feb US New Home Sales Dec UK BOE Governor Mark Carney Testifies to House of Lords NZ QV House Prices YoY Feb US Fed's Barkin Speaks at the Rural Economy Wednesday, 6 March 219 NZ Dairy Auction Avg. Winning Price MT 5 Mar 3271 early am AU RBA Governor Lowe speech in Sydney The Housing Market and the Economy AU GDP SA QoQ / YoY 4Q.5/2.7.3/ JN BOJ Harada makes a speech in Kofu EC OECD Interim Economic Outlook. 21. US MBA Mortgage Applications UK BOE's Cunliffe speaks in London US ADP Employment Change Feb US Trade Balance Dec CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision 6 Mar US Fed s Williams Speaks to Economic Club of New York US Fed's Mester Participates in Moderated Discussion UK BOE's Saunders Speaks in London US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Thursday, 7 March 219 CH Foreign Reserves Feb March AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Feb NZ Wholesale Trade 4Q AU Trade Balance Jan AU Retail Sales MoM Jan JN Leading Index CI Jan P UK BOE's Tenreyro Speaks in Glasgow EC GDP SA QoQ / YoY 4Q F.2/1.2.2/ EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate 7 Mar EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility 7 Mar EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate 7 Mar EC ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt After Policy Decision US Initial Jobless Claims 2 Mar CA Building Permits MoM Jan CA Bank of Canada's Lynn Patterson speech in Hamilton US Fed's Brainard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy Outlook Friday, 8 March 219 NZ Building Work Put in Place 4Q NZ Manufacturing Sales 4Q JN GDP SA QoQ / Annualised SA QoQ 4Q F.4/1.7.3/ JN GDP Deflator YoY 4Q F JN BoP Current Account Balance Jan JN Trade Balance BoP Basis Jan P CH Trade Balance Feb March CH Exports YoY / Imports YoY Feb -2.7/.6 9.1/ March GE Factory Orders MoM / YoY Jan.5/ / CA Housing Starts Feb US Building Permits / Housing Starts Jan 1287/ / US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate Feb 185/3.9 34/ US Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY Feb.3/3.3.1/ CA Net Change in Employment / Unemployment Rate Feb -2.5/ / CA Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY Feb CA Capacity Utilization Rate 4Q Upcoming Central Bank Interest Rate Announcements Australia, RBA 5-Mar 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Canada, BoC 6-Mar 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% Europe, ECB 7-Mar -.4% -.4% -.4% Japan, BoJ 15-Mar -.1% -.1% -.1% US, Federal Reserve 2-Mar % % % UK, BOE 21-Mar.75%.75%.75% New Zealand, RBNZ 27-Mar 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% GMT: Greenwich Mean Time; AEDT: Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time NAB Markets Research 4

5 Australian Markets Weekly 4 March 219 FORECASTS Economic Forecasts Annual % change Quarterly % change Australia Forecasts Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Household Consumption Underlying Business Investment Residential Construction Underlying Public Spending Exports Imports Net Exports (a) Inventories (a) Domestic Demand - qtr% Dom Demand - ann % Real GDP - qtr % Real GDP - ann % CPI headline - qtr % CPI headline - ann % CPI underlying - qtr % CPI underlying - ann % Wages (Pvte WPI - qtr % Wages (Pvte WPI - ann %) Unemployment Rate (%) Terms of trade G&S trade balance, $Abn % of GDP Current Account (% GDP) Source: NAB Group Economics; (a) Contributions to GDP growth Exchange Rate Forecasts Global GDP 4-Mar Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Dec year Majors Australia AUD/USD US NZD/USD Eurozone USD/JPY UK EUR/USD Japan GBP/USD China USD/CHF India USD/CAD New Zealand USD/CNY World MTP Top Australian Cross Rates AUD/NZD Commodity prices ($US) AUD/JPY Mar Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 AUD/EUR Brent oil AUD/GBP Gold AUD/CNY Iron ore AUD/CAD Hard coking coal AUD/CHF Thermal coal Copper Interest Rate Forecasts Aust LNG (*) Australia Rates 4-Mar Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 (*) Implied Australian LNG export prices. RBA Cash rate month bill rate Year Swap Rate Year Swap Rate Offshore Policy Rates US Fed funds ECB deposit rate BoE repo rate BoJ excess reserves rate RBNZ OCR China 1yr lending rate China Reserve Ratio year Benchmark Bond Yields Australia United States New Zealand Sources: NAB Global Markets Research; Bloomberg; ABS 2 Yr Avge NAB Markets Research 5

6 Australian Markets Weekly 4 March 219 CONTACT DETAILS Market Economics David de Garis Director, Economics david.degaris@nab.com.au Kieran Davies Director, Economics kieran.davies@nab.com.au Kaixin Owyong Economist, Markets kaixin.owyong@nab.com.au Markets Research Ivan Colhoun Chief Economist, Markets and Global Head of Research ivan.colhoun@nab.com.au Group Economics Alan Oster Chief Economist alan_oster@national.com.au Important Notice This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN AFSL ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. Please click here to view our disclaimer and terms of use. NAB Markets Research 6