Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. ( Daily Currency Trading Recommendations--CME/Globex FUTURES

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. ( Daily Currency Trading Recommendations--CME/Globex FUTURES"

Alexis Harrell
5 years ago
Views:

1 ( Daily Currency Trading Recommendations--CME/Globex FUTURES Published Monday, 8//9 for Globex Open Tonight and Tuesday, 8/11/9--SEPT Contract SWING CURRENT PROFIT ENTRY ENTRY NEW STOP* TARGET* CURRENCY DIRECTION POSITION CLOSE STOP TARGET PRICE DATE MTM ENTRY DTR 5 TICKSDTR 5 TICKS UK SELL SQUARE // Points EURO SELL SQUARE // Points -3 A$ BUY SQUARE // Points YEN SELL SQUARE // Points SF SELL SQUARE /7/ Points C$ BUY SQUARE // Points - 51 WE WENT SHORT THE POUND AT THE GLOBEX OPEN AND TOOK PROFIT AT FOR A GAIN OF 84 POINTS. IF WE HAD NOTR DISABLE FOOTNOTE RULE 2, WE WOULD HAVE GONE SHORT AT AND TOOK PROFIT AT FOR A GAIN OF POINTS. WE HIT THE TARGET IN THE EURO AT FOR A GAIN OF 89 POINTS. WE HIT THE TARGET IN THE A$ AT 8384 FOR A GAIN OF 26 POINTS. WE WENT SHORT THE YEN AT THE GLOBEX OPEN 238 AND HIT THE STOP AT 319 FOR A LOSS OF POINTS. WE HIT THE TARGET IN THE SF AT 92 FOR A GAIN OF 67 POINTS. WE WENT SHORT THE C$ AT THE GLOBEX OPEN 9242 AND HIT THE TARGET AT 9188 FOR A GAIN OF 54 POINTS. This report recommends trading positions to be taken at the earliest opportunity. It is prepared after the close of the Chicago pit session for new positions to be put on at the Globex open two hours later. If you are trading in the spot market, do not wait--place orders as soon as possible after receiving the report. To create spot-equivalent stops and targets, apply the points (in gray) to your entry. If the entry is not the same as the close, you can calculate spot equivalents at All prices on a FUTURES BASIS, nearest contract. Today s "Close" may not be the final settlement price. Current Position is long, short, or square (square means NO POSITION, also called "flat" or "neutral"). Bold, italic points to new position today. Stop is the recommended level to exit the current long or short position. If stop = close, execute as soon as possible. Reenter is the recommended level to reenter in the Swing Direction. "NPR" means "no position recommended." If we carry a position from one day to another day, we change the stop and target to reflect changed conditions. Be sure to cancel the old stop and target. Entry Price is the price at which we initiated the current long, short or square position. Entry Date is the date on which the current position was entered. MTM (mark-to-market) is the number of points gained or lost between the current long or short position entry price and today s close. * Current position profit target is the recommended level to exit for a gain. If we have no position, we also have no profit target.

2 A Note about Contingency Rules: We normally trade each currency once per day, and always with a stop loss order and profit target. We almost always enter a new position at the Globex open, but sometimes we think we can buy more cheaply or sell from a higher level. When we overestimate, the recommended entry is not hit and we lose the opportunity to trade that currency that day. Contingency Rule 1 allows you to have a trade on that day even though the entry was not hit. When you have already taken a loss or booked a gain, you are done for the day, usually in the overnight Globex session. This leaves you with no opportunity afterwards, usually during the US day session. The other two Rules allow you to make a second (or third) trade and thus have the chance to gain back a loss or extend a gain. You do not have to apply the Contingency Rules to trade the Rockefeller system successfully--but using the rules does add to the bottom line and hardly ever subtracts. The rules can be hard to grasp at first and they are always hard to execute. That's the nature of a contingency--you have to ensure that the necessary conditions are in place. Contingency Rule Trade 1: Correction Rule If we think the price may correct/retrace before resuming the trend direction, we name an entry that is x number of points above or below the close. If that price is not hit, to avoid missing out on a good trade, re-enter in the trend direction if the price does correct at least points from the close but then returns to the close. Example: the pound closes at 1.. Overall we see an upward trend direction and want to buy, but think it will correct lower to 1.49 before rising again. The pound corrects only to 1.49 and then returns to 1. again, the close. Using Contingency Rule 1, we buy at 1.. We apply the proportional number of points from the main report to derive the stop and target. It's up to the user to determine whether the entry was filled or not filled. Currency Direction Close Entry Filled/ Entry Stop Stop Target Target Not Filled Points DTR 5 TicksPoints DTR 5 Ticks UK SELL Euro SELL A$ BUY Yen SELL SF SELL C$ BUY

3 ( Daily Currency Trading Recommendations--CME/Globex FUTURES Contingency Rule Trades--"Footnote Rule" Trades Contingency Rule Trade 2: Continuation Rule We set stops and targets as a function of the Average True Range. Upon occasion we get an abnormally wide high-low range, but have already taken profit and thus will miss the opportunity to ride the move. Contingency Rule 2 addresses this. If the price moves up or down points from your already executed profit target, re-enter in the Trend Direction. Place a stop loss order points over/under the entry and a profit target at points from entry. If the target is hit, do it again--re-enter points from the last exit with a stop at points and a target at points. You may be able to do this as many as five or six times for a total gain of points. Usually the last trade in a series of Contingency Rule 2 trades is a loss of points as the market pares positions at the end of the day. For example, we took profit in a long position in the pound at 1.. The pound now rises to 1., so using Rule 2 we buy with a stop at 1. and a target at If the target it hit, we buy again at 1. with a stop at 1.51 and a target at 1.. Currency Direction Target Entry 1 Stop 1 Target 1 Entry 2 Stop 2 Target 2 Entry 3 Stop 3 Target 3 UK SELL Euro SELL A$ BUY Yen SELL SF SELL C$ BUY

4 ( Daily Currency Trading Recommendations--CME/Globex FUTURES Contingency Rule Trades--"Footnote Rule" Trades Contingency Rule 3: Reversal Rule If the stop is hit on an entry, you should take a second bite of the same trade if the price returns to the same level as the entry, which almost always the close. Since we know the CME close at the time of publishing the report but do not know the Globex open or any other specific entry level, we apply this rule as though all stopped trades originated at the close. Just as Contingency Trade 2 gets you back in the market after a gain, Contingency Rule 3 gets you back in after a loss. Both rules aim to avoid losing opportunity if the market is making wild swings. If you were willing to buy or sell at a specific level, you should be willing to do it a second time even if it resulted in a loss the first time. This rule is very hard to apply--we miss it ourselves sometimes. It is also hard to place--you are reentering at the same level but only after the stop is hit. Example: we go long the pound at 1., which is the close, with a stop at The stop is hit. Sterling then reverses and returns to 1., our original entry. Contingency Rule 3 dictates we should buy again at 1. and use the same stop loss and profit target orders. We also re-enter after a stop at the previous day's close if that is higher than the stop just hit. Enter at Currency Direction Stop Close Pri Stop Target UK SELL Euro SELL A$ BUY Yen SELL SF SELL C$ BUY

5 9 Bold is entry position. THESE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL. WE DID NOT EXECUTE THESE TRADES. Performance based on one CME futures contract per currency. 7 Track Record 57, Track Record 7, Track Record Cumulative January 32,9. February 6,7. March 11, ,1.75 April 4, ,517. (,813.75) 56,687. 3,683 Entry Date Currency Buy Sell Exit Date Points P/L Cumulative 7/24/9 Euro /27/ /24/9 Yen /28/ /24/9 SF /27/ /27/9 Pound /27/ /27/9 Euro /27/ /27/9 A$ /27/ /27/9 C$ /27/ /27/9 C$ /27/ /4/9 Euro /4/ /4/9 A$ /4/ /4/9 Yen /4/ /4/9 C$ /4/ /4/9 Pound /5/ /5/9 C$ /5/ /5/9 Pound /6/ /5/9 Euro /6/ /5/9 A$ /6/ /5/9 Yen /6/ /6/9 C$ /6/ /4/9 SF /7/ /6/9 Pound /7/ /7/9 Pound /7/ /7/9 Euro /7/ /7/9 Yen /7/ /7/9 SF /7/ /7/9 C$ /7/ /7/9 A$ // //9 Pound // /7/9 Euro // /7/9 SF // //9 C$ // //9 Yen //

6 Open Positions No open positions. CFTC REQUIRED RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT: NOTICE: "HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

7 Monday,, 9 Japanese Yen Sept 9 Futures Contract Momentum (98.314) Yen Sept 9 (,238.,,322.,,236.,,8., +58.), Starc Band Bottom (,2.), Starc Band Top (, Stochastic Oscillator (16.14) Japanese Yen Sept 9 (,238.,,322.,,236.,,8., +58.), Linear Regression Indicator (,371.94) Not alower low and upo day with close near high. Just a bounce or what? Most of bar is under bottom of B band = ab normal pril Chande Momentum Oscillator ( ) Japanese Yen Sept 9 (,238.,,322.,,236.,,8., +58.), Parabolic SAR (,678.32).% Blue downchannel ril 23.6% 38.2%.% 61.8%.% Average True Range (133.67) MACD ( )

8 Monday,, 9 Swiss Franc Sept 9 Futures Contract anc Sept 9 (.924,.92,.91,.92, -.), Starc Band Bottom (.9595), Starc Band Top ( Momentum ( ) Stochastic Oscillator (29.12) Swiss Franc Sept 9 (.924,.926,.91,.921, -.2), Linear Regression Indicator (.93142) Swiss Franc Sept 9 (.924,.92,.91,.92, -.), Parabolic SAR ( ) Lower low with close near low for third day. Parabolic will reverse at Enite bar under -day moving average. Break of linreg channel but not congestion zone. B band bottom ril Chande Momentum Oscillator (-2.434) Average True Range ( ) MACD (.1488)

9 Monday,, 9 UK Pound Sept 9 Futures Contract h Pound Sept 9 (1.667, 1.6, 1.642, 1.64, -.), Starc Band Bottom (1.636), Starc Band Top ( ) 29 Momentum ( ) Stochastic Oscillator (22.393) British Pound Sept 9 (1.667, 1.6, 1.642, 1.64, -.), Linear Regression Indicator ( ) British Pound Sept 9 (1.667, 1.6, 1.642, 1.64, -.), Parabolic SAR (1.638) Lower low and close near low for third day. Time for a bounce? Break of red support. Parabolic will reverse at 164. MACD crossing to downside. Close is under -day. Blue linreg channel is broken, B band bottom Chande Momentum Oscillator ( ) Average True Range (.7431) MACD (.665) ril

10 Monday,, 9 Canadian Dollar Sept 9 Futures Contract n Dollar Sept 9 (.924,.926,.9,.917, -.5), Starc Band Bottom (.916), Starc Band Top (.93644) Momentum ( ) Stochastic Oscillator (18.69) Can Dollar Sept 9 (.924,.926,.9,.917, -.5), Linear Regression Indicator (.91932) third day. MACD downside could be the limit Chande Momentum Oscillator ( ) Can Dollar Sept 9 (.924,.926,.9,.917, -.5), Parabolic SAR (.939).% Lower low, close near low for ril 23.6% 38.2%.% 61.8% crossover. But getting oversold in stochastic and touch of -day % Average True Range ( ) MACD (.11418)

11 Monday,, 9 Australian Dollar Sept 9 Futures Contract Momentum (2.9) ian Dollar Sept 9 (.832,.84,.8,.833, -.1), Starc Band Bottom (.82729), Starc Band Top (.84818).8.% % %.8.8.% % % Stochastic Oscillator ( ) Australian Dollar Sept 9 (.832,.84,.8,.833, -.1), Linear Regression Indicator (.853) Australian Dollar Sept 9 (.83,.84,.8,.833, -.1), Parabolic SAR (.844) Lower low and close near low but over open. Nearly touching - day. Parabolic reversal but think it will be short-lived. -day ril Chande Momentum Oscillator ( ) Average True Range (.1846) MACD (.168)

Monday,, 9 Euro Sept 9 Futures Contract Momentum (99.4931) 3. Chande Momentum Oscillator (.8517) 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 99.5 99. 98.5 98. 97.5 97. Euro Sept 9 (1.417, 1.42, 1.4, 1.413, -.

12 Monday,, 9 Euro Sept 9 Futures Contract Momentum ( ) 3. Chande Momentum Oscillator (.8517) Euro Sept 9 (1.417, 1.42, 1.4, 1.413, -.), Starc Band Bottom ( ), Starc Band Top ( ) 1.5 Euro Sept 9 (1.41, 1.42, 1.4, 1.413, -.), Parabolic SAR (1.7333) Lower low, bad close near low, breaking ATR band and nearly breaking linreg channel. Most of bar under -day. Three black candles Parabolic will reverse at Vulnerable 8 to very 22 big 29bounce Euro Sept 9 (1.417, 1.42, 1.4, 1.413, -.), Linear Regression Indicator ( ) Stochastic Oscillator (31.67) Blue linreg channel ril Average True Range (.1378) MACD (.62)

JPY BUY SQUARE /28/ Points

JPY BUY SQUARE /28/ Points (www.rts-forex.com) Daily Currency Trading Recommendations --CME/Globex FUTURES--MAR Contract 3/3/ Published at 3:-4: pm New York time for the upcoming overnight Globex session and following day until