Changing Consumer Demographics in the Ski Industry. CAST Meeting Durango, CO 8/29/14

Transcription

1 Changing Consumer Demographics in the Ski Industry CAST Meeting Durango, CO 8/29/14

2 A Brief Industry Overview

3 Skier/Snowboarder Visits (in millions) U.S. and Canadian Skier/Snowboarder Visits: 1996/97 to 2013/ Canada U.S. North American Skier/Snowboarder Visits (excludes Nordi & Heli) 0.00 Season

4 Total Active Participants: 1996/97 to 2013/14

5 Estimated Market Size for Downhill Snow Sports in the U.S. 3.2% of population 10,000,000 ACTIVE 6.3% of population 20,000,000 LAPSED 18% of population 56,800, ,200,000 Socio-Economic Match

6 THE MODEL FOR GROWTH Beginner Drop- Out Never Been Annual Growth in Trial Core Revival Lapsed

7 THE MODEL 1999/2000 Beginner 10% 85% Drop- Out 15% Never Been Annual Growth in Trial=0.0% Core 65% 25% Revival 25% 20% 75% 0% Lapsed

8 Number of First Time Participants: 1996/97 to 2013/14

9 THE MODEL 2012/2013 Beginner 8% 83% Drop- Out 17% Never Been Annual Growth in Trial=-3.3% Core 65% 25% Revival 27% 27% 75% -1.7% Lapsed

10 Visits Visitation Projections from 2013/14 through 2029/30: Decline vs. Growth % Decline in Trial 6% Growth in Trial / 0.2% Improvement in Conversion 10 0

11 Trial Goals Translated On average we see about 1,000,000 first timers in any given season. Based on a 6% growth in trial we would like to see an additional 60,000 first timers on the slopes.

12 Trends of Note Significant generational differences in participation patterns Slow growth in building diversity Income inequality, the aging of wealth, and the affordability factor Significant gender differences in participation levels Climate change reduces length and predictability of the season The need to capitalize on summer

13 Generational Differences

14 Percent of Visits Percent of Visits by Single Year of Age: 2012/13 vs. 2002/03 3.5% 3.0% 2012/ /03 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Single Year of Age

15 The Greatest Generation: Born prior to Currently age 87 and over. 1.3% of population.

16 The Silent Generation: Born between 1928 and Currently age 69 to 86. 9% of population

17 The Baby Boomer: Born between 1946 and Currently age 50 to % of population.

18 Generation X: Born between 1965 and Currently age 34 to % of population.

19 Millennials: Born after Currently age 33 and under year olds are 22% of population.

20 The Birth of the Teenager in the 20 th Century

21 The 21 st Century Brings the Concept of the Emerging Adult Five Milestones: Completing School Leaving Home Becoming Financially Independent Marrying Having a Child In 1960 about 77% of women and 65% of men had achieved all 5 by age 30. In 2000 about 50% of women and about 33% of men had done all five by age 30.

22

23 Percent Indicating Place Their Cell Phone On or Right Next to Their Bed When Sleeping Millenials 83% Gen X 68% Baby Boomer 50% Silent Generation 20% Percent Who Sleep With Cell Phone 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percent Responding

24 Percent of Adults Living Alone by Gender and Age: More adults live alone than at any point in human history. In Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, San Francisco and Minneapolis - 40 percent or more of all households contain a single occupant. Sources: Analysis by Susan Weber and Andrew Beveridge, Queens College, CUNY, from historical and current census data

25 Diminished Value of Ownership and the Rise of the Sharing Economy

26 Total U.S. Snow Sports Participants by Cohort: 1996/97 to 2013/14

27 Total U.S. Snow Sports Participants by Cohort: 1996/97 to 2013/14

28 Percent of Participants Percent of Total U.S. Participants by Cohort: 1996/97 to 2012/13 Percent Millenial to GenX Percent Boom & Pre-Boom 78.8% 79.1% 75.9% 77.3% 77.3% 71.0% 72.8% 74.0% 69.1% 65.8% 65.4% 66.8% 67.5% 63.1% 60.3% 58.0% 55.3% 44.7% 42.0% 39.7% 36.9% 34.2% 34.6% 33.2% 32.5% 30.9% 29.0% 27.2% 26.0% 24.1% 22.7% 21.2% 20.9% 22.7% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

29 Size of Group Number of 18 to 39 Year Old Coloradans vs. 18 to 39 Year Old Colorado Skiers/Snowboarders: 1996/97 to 2012/13 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200, to 39 Year Old Colorado Skiers/Snowboarders 18 to 39 Year Old Coloradans 1,000, , , , ,000 -

30 Is Resort Product in Alignment with Millennial Needs?

31 Growing Diversity

32 Percent Non-White Percent Non-White by Single Year of Age 70% 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Single Year of Age

33 Percent Non-White Percent Non-White in 2012 Population vs. 2012/13 Skier/Snowboarder Population by Single Year of Age 50% 45% 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percent Non-White in Population) 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percent Non-White in Skier/Snowboarder Population) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % Single Year of Age

34 Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth

35 Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth

36 Average Net Worth by Age and Year

37 Change in Net Worth by Age Group: 1983 to 2010 Source:

38 Lack of Economic Mobility by Geographic Region

39 Percent Responding Percent of Visits Accounted for by Household Income Category: 2007/08 to 2012/13 35% 30% 25% 30% 2007/ / / / / /13 27% 25% 25% 24% 31% 20% 18% 19% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,00 or above Household Income Category

40 Average Lift Ticket Price (weekend) $ U.S. Average Adult Lift Ticket Price (weekend): 2001/02 to 2013/14 $93.33 $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $48.49 $53.34 $55.11 $58.96 $61.99 $66.13 $68.90 $72.28 $73.11 $76.89 $82.07 $86.17 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $- Avg. Season Pass Price: 2000/01 = $ /13 = $717 Avg. Lift Ticket Price (weekend)

41 Gender Differences in Participation

42 Percent of Visits HIGH RISK ZONE 100% Visits Accounted for by Gender and Single Year of Age: 2010/11 to 2012/13 Average 90% Male Female 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % 0% Single Year of Age

43 Snowboarding Trending Down Share of visits from snowboarders dropped to 26.6% in 2013/14, down from 30.6% in 2010/11 Decline seen in all regions and all size ski areas Most pronounced drop in Pacific South (down 10 percentage points in 3 years)

44 Average Days Skied/Snowboarded Average Days Skied or Snowboarded: 1996/97 to 2012/ Average Days for Snowboarders Average Days for Skiers

45 Percent of Participants Gender Ratios for Snowboarding Participants: 1996/97 to 2011/12 64% 63% 63% 63% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 61% 62% 61% 61% 62% 62% 65% 70% 60% 50% 36% 37% 37% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 38% 38% 35% 40% 30% Male Female 20% 10% 0%

46 Climate Change

47 Projected Change in Colorado River Basin Snowpack Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

48 Rising Importance of Summer

49 Rising Importance of Summer 10M 26M

50 What happens when we lose our edge with regards to unique product and high barriers to entry?

51 And what if our customer base isn t as dedicated or engaged with the product offerings we can successfully monetize?

52 Average Rating of Amenity's Financial Success Alpine Slide Water Park Mountain Coaster Zip-line/ Canopy Tour Ropes/Challenge Course Weddings/Meetings/Fa Bungee Scenic Lift Rides Climbing Wall Adventure Races Mini Golf Festivals/Concerts Downhill Mountain Biking Golf Hiking Mountain Biking (XC) Disc Golf Geocaching Average Average Rating (1="Not at All Successful"/10="Extremely Successful"

53 Most Important Reason for Trip to Ski Area Enjoyment of the scenic beauty of the mountain/area Rest and relaxation Enjoyment of the ski area resort/town Visit friends/relatives Climate/weather Mountain getaway General sightseeing/touring Noncompetitive recreational activity Group arrangement/family reunion Combined business/pleasure National/state park Hadn't been to the area before, wanted to see it Business/professional Special event Previous experience/annual vacation Other Competitive sporting event participant Special package/offer/price/discount Seasonal residence Convention/conference/trade show Wedding/honeymoon/anniversary Recommend by friend, family, word of mouth 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 13% 26% Percent Responding 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percent Responding

54 Conclusions Growing snow sports is possible, but not without focused effort. Resorts are often distracted from these efforts because of everyday operating pressures and capacity issues. Generational differences in participation have the potential to be extremely problematic. Climate change is a reality but poses opportunity in some areas. Mountain towns with strong historical identities and authentic presence are well positioned to appeal to a younger generation.