ChamberRVA Mayoral Survey Topline Report. October 13, 2016

Transcription

1 ChamberRVA Mayoral Survey Topline Report October 13,

2 Table of Contents Background, Objectives, and Methodology Respondent Profile Key Findings 2

3 Background, Objectives, and Methodology 3

4 Project Background ChamberRVA is hosting a Mayoral Debate on October 17, 2016 at the Altria Theater. The Southeastern Institute of Research (SIR) was engaged to conduct a survey among likely voters in the City of Richmond s Mayoral election to inform and help prepare for this event. 4

5 Research Objectives The objectives of this survey initiative include: 1. Assess likely voters attitudes regarding key community and business issues and policies that are important to ChamberRVA. 2. Identify and rank the importance of key RVA-related issues that likely voters feel the candidates should address if elected. 5

6 Survey Methodology A 28-question telephone survey was conducted among registered likely voters in the upcoming City of Richmond s November 2016 election. Responses were collected from October 5-11, Respondents were sampled from a purchased list of registered voters in the City of Richmond. A stratified random sampling approach within districts was conducted. Additionally, respondents were screened to ensure they met the following criteria: Are at least 18 years of age Are registered to vote in the City of Richmond Plan to vote or already voted in the November 8 election 6

7 Survey Methodology A total of 1,850 responses were collected across the city of Richmond. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 2.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. An minimum of 200 responses per each of the nine voting districts were collected to allow for district-level analysis. The district-level margin of error does not exceed +/- 6.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Data were weighted by gender and age cohort to more accurately reflect known voter demographics for the area. The reported margin of error does not account for the design effect created by weighting. Three-quarters of responses were collected via landline, and a quarter were collected via cellular phone. 7

8 Respondent Profile 8

9 Weights were calculated to be in line with 2014 U.S Census data for registered voters in Virginia. Unweighted Data Skewed Female, But Data Weighting Created Gender Splits More Reflective of Voter Demographics Male 40% 51% Female 49% 60% n = 1,879 Unweighted 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Unweighted n = 1,850 9 Q31. Gender [BY OBSERVATION]

10 Weights were calculated to be in line with demographics obtained from the purchased list of registered voters in the City of Richmond. Unweighted Data Oversampled Boomers and Undersampled Millennials, But Data Weighting Also Aligned Generational Representation Millennial ( ) 10% 34% Generation X ( ) 25% 24% Boomer ( ) 29% 52% Silent/Greatest (before 1946) 12% 14% n = 1,854 Unweighted 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Unweighted n = 1, Calculated based on Q30. In what year were you born?

11 Respondents were required to plan to vote or have already voted to qualify for the study. Nearly All Respondents Have Not Yet Voted Plan to vote Already voted 1% n = 1, Q5. Do you plan to vote in the upcoming election on November 8, have you already voted, or do you not plan to vote?

12 12 Key Findings

13 Top Community Issues 13

14 On average, the proportion of respondents who selected don t know for these issues is 1%. Respondents Feel that the Most Important Issue Facing the City of Richmond Today is Improving the Quality of Richmond Public Schools Working with the School Board to improve the quality of Richmond Public Schools 9% 84% 93% Reducing crime 14% 74% 88% Delivering basic services, such as filling potholes, collecting garbage and paving streets 21% 67% 88% Bringing more business and job opportunities to Richmond 19% 68% 87% Changing the housing project system that segregates poor people into a few neighborhoods 18% 57% 75% Improving public transportation, including regional service to jobs in nearby counties and cities 23% 50% 73% Developing the riverfront of the James River to include more recreational amenities 20% 24% 44% Very important 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q8. Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important, how important are each of these issues facing the city of Richmond today? The first/next one is...

15 Improving Public Transportation is Significantly More Important to Respondents From the Sixth District Working with the School Board to improve the quality of Richmond Public Schools % 93% 96% 86% 95% 94% 94% 95% 91% Reducing crime 80% 84% 91% 87% 82% 93% 89% 92% 89% Delivering basic services (potholes, garbage and paving) Bringing more business and job opportunities to Richmond Changing the housing project system that segregates poor people into a few neighborhoods Improving public transportation, including regional service to jobs in nearby counties and cities Developing the riverfront of the James River to include more recreational amenities 89% 84% 91% 89% 83% 91% 89% 86% 84% 83% 84% 92% 85% 83% 90% 90% 90% 88% 67% 74% 75% 69% 78% 82% 74% 77% 76% 61% 68% 81% 61% 73% 87%* 73% 75% 77% 46% 36% 44% 45% 48% 51% 38% 45% 39% 15 n = 1,879 Percentages represent proportion of respondents who selected 4 or 5 Very important. Q8. Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important, how important are each of these issues facing the city of Richmond today? The first/next one is...

16 Gen X Respondents Find Public School Issues Important, Silent/GI Respondents Prioritize Crime, and Older Generations Find Basic Services More Important than Younger Generations Working with the School Board to improve the quality of Richmond Public Schools Millennials Gen X Boomers Silent / GI n = 627 n = 465 n = 541 n = % 95%* 91% 91% Reducing crime 85% 86% 89% 93%* Delivering basic services (potholes, garbage and paving) 84% 88% 90%* 90%* Bringing more business and job opportunities to Richmond 87% 89% 86% 89% Changing the housing project system that segregates poor people into a few neighborhoods Improving public transportation, including regional service to jobs in nearby counties and cities Developing the riverfront of the James River to include more recreational amenities 75% 77% 76% 67% 73% 72% 74% 75% 45% 43% 41% 47% 16 Q8. Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important, how important are each of these issues facing the city of Richmond today? The first/next one is...

17 17 Regionalism

18 On average, the proportion of respondents who selected don t know for these issues is 2%. Respondents Overwhelmingly Feel that the City of Richmond Should Approach Issues Regionally Transportation system, including streets and highways Public transit Economic development recruiting new businesses Poverty 19% 21% 22% 23% 79% 77% 76% 75% Crime and safety Workforce training preparing future workforce Address alone Address regionally 28% 71% 28% 70% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q9. On the topic of regional cooperation, please tell us how you think the City of Richmond should approach the following issues. For each question, please tell us if you think the city of Richmond needs to address this on its own OR the city of Richmond needs to address this issue regionally, with the help and participation of the surrounding counties. The first/next one is...

19 Economic Development 19

20 On average, the proportion of respondents who selected don t know for these statements is 3%. Respondents Would Like the Next Mayor to Attract New Businesses By Increasing the City s Efforts in Workforce Development and Economic Development Increase the city s workforce development efforts 23% 60% 83% Increase the efforts of the City of Richmond s own economic development recruitment program 23% 59% 82% Visibly lead business recruitment efforts 23% 51% 74% Use financial incentives 19% 35% 54% Should do 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q11. Next, I m going to read you a series of statements about what the next mayor of Richmond could do to attract more new businesses to the City of Richmond. Please indicate if you feel the mayor should or should not do each of these things using a scale of 1 to 5 for your answers, where 1 means should not do and 5 means should do.

21 On average, the proportion of respondents who selected don t know for these statements is 1%. The Top Way that Respondents Would Like the Next Mayor to Attract Millennials is By Encouraging More Small Businesses and Start-Ups Visibly leading Millennial recruitment efforts is most important to respondents from the Seventh District (79%). Support an environment that encourages more small businesses and start-ups Provide more affordable housing Continue to support the city s local food scene 22% 18% 23% 67% 63% 55% 89% 81% 78% Add more public transportation 21% 52% 73% Grow the city s music and arts scene 23% 44% 67% Visibly lead Millennial recruitment efforts 24% 42% 66% Add more walking and bike trails 22% 35% 57% Implement the plan to develop the riverfront of the James River to include more recreational 19% 34% 53% Should do 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q12. Now I m going to read you a series of statements about what the next mayor of Richmond could do to attract more Millennials, or young professionals to the City of Richmond. Please indicate if you feel the mayor should or should not do each of these things using a scale of 1 to 5 for your answers, where 1 means should not do and 5 means should do.

22 Data shown represents Millennial respondents only. Millennial respondents rated the following topics significantly higher than other generations: Affordable housing, Support of the food scene, and Visibly lead Millennial recruitment efforts. Millennial Respondents Agree that The Top Way that They Would Like the Next Mayor to Attract Millennials is By Encouraging More Small Businesses and Start-Ups Support an environment that encourages more small businesses and start-ups Continue to support the city s local food scene Provide more affordable housing Add more public transportation 21% 22% 15% 21% 70% 64% 70% 55% 76% 91% 86% 85% Visibly lead Millennial recruitment efforts 26% 46% 72% Grow the city s music and arts scene 19% 52% 71% Add more walking and bike trails 21% 38% 59% Implement the plan to develop the riverfront of the James River to include more recreational 17% 37% 54% Should do 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = Q12. Now I m going to read you a series of statements about what the next mayor of Richmond could do to attract more Millennials, or young professionals to the City of Richmond. Please indicate if you feel the mayor should or should not do each of these things using a scale of 1 to 5 for your answers, where 1 means should not do and 5 means should do.

23 Richmond Public Schools 23

24 Most (80%) Respondents Gave Richmond Public Schools a Grade C or Lower RPS s GPA is 2.5 A 3% B 8% C D 29% 37% 80% Don't know/no opinion F 14% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q14. When it comes to the Richmond Public Schools, what grade A, B, C, D, or F would you give them overall?

25 Respondents in the First District Are Significantly More Likely to Grade RPS a C or Lower A 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% B 1% 4% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 7% C 36% 40% 45% 37% 38% 29% 31% 44% 35% D 34% 37% 22% 26% 29% 31% 34% 20% 26% F 17% 5% 13% 15% 12% 16% 15% 16% 14% C, D, or F 87% 82% 79% 78% 78% 76% 79% 79% 74% Don t know/ No opinion 10% 14% 10% 12% 9% 12% 8% 7% 14% GPA n = 1,879 Q14. When it comes to the Richmond Public Schools, what grade A, B, C, D, or F would you give them overall?

26 Gen X Respondents Are Significantly More Likely to Grade RPS a C or Lower Millennials Gen X Boomers Silent / GI n = 627 n = 465 n = 541 n = 221 A 3% 1% 3% 5% B 11% 6% 6% 9% C 36% 37% 38% 36% D 26% 33% 29% 24% F 14% 15% 14% 10% C, D, or F 76% 85% 81% 70% Don t know/ No opinion 11% 8% 11% 16% GPA n = 1,879 Q14. When it comes to the Richmond Public Schools, what grade A, B, C, D, or F would you give them overall?

27 Question asked of respondents who gave RPS a grade of C, D, or F in Q14. Because multiple responses were allowed, percentages may add to greater than 100%. There Are Many Reasons Why Respondents Graded Richmond Public Schools A C or Lower Poor equipment and facilities Poor administration / leadership Not effective - students aren t prepared High drop-out rate They are inefficient They are not accountable Poor teachers A different reason, other than those stated Unsure 3% 27% 21% 43% 42% 40% 55% 52% 67% n = 1, % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q15. Which of the following seven statements describe why you gave Richmond Public Schools this grade? You may choose more than one.

28 On average, the proportion of respondents who selected don t know for these statements is 5%. When It Comes to the Richmond Public School System, Most Respondents Would Like the Next Mayor To Be Very Pro-Active On Funding Issues Respondents in the Eighth District are most in favor of setting clear expectations of funding based on results (92%). Work with the City Council and the School Board to set clear expectations of funding based on results 16% 66% 82% Create a 5-year predictable source of funding (currently, the budget is created on an annual basis) 17% 60% 77% Identify areas where the School System can save money 15% 57% 72% Should do 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q16. I m going to read you a list of statements that describe what the next mayor of Richmond could do when it comes to the Richmond Public School System. Please indicate if you feel the mayor should or should not do each of these things using a scale of 1 to 5 for your answers, where 1 means should not do and 5 means should do.

29 Because multiple responses were allowed, percentages may add to greater than 100%. Respondents Are Most in Favor of Generating More Revenue for Schools By Attracting and Growing Business Attracting and growing business - to create jobs which generate more tax revenue 70% Taking funding from other current programs Increasing resident s taxes Increasing the city s debt limit A different way to generate revenue, other than those stated None of the above 24% 19% 16% 27% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q17. Most people believe the city and the schools need more money. There are several ways to generate more revenue for the schools. Which are you in favor of? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]

30 Three in Five Respondents Believe the School Board Should Not Have the Ability to Levy Taxes Don't know/ No opinion 11% Yes 29% No 60% n = 1, Q18. Do you think that the elected School Board should have the ability to levy taxes so they don t have to ask the Mayor and City Council for their budget every year?

31 Project Priorities for the City of Richmond 31

32 City-Related Projects Downtown Coliseum Connect Transportation Modes Across the Region Work With Businesses to Create Jobs and Provide Food and Services to Underserved Areas Stone Brewing Project 32

33 Nearly Two-Thirds of Respondents Feel that a New, Privately Financed Downtown Coliseum is an Important Priority for the City 5 - Very important priority 4 22% 41% 63% 3 20% 1 - Not an important priority 2 Don't know/no opinion 6% 3% 9% n = 1, % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q19. Years of deferred maintenance have left Richmond s aging downtown Coliseum unable to attract major conventions, concerts, and sporting events. In addition, the design makes it impossible to upgrade to modern standards. If a new downtown coliseum were privately financed, would help generate new jobs, and helped produce new tax revenue for schools and neighborhood amenities, how important would this priority be for the city? Please use a scale of 1 to 5 for your answers, where 1 means Not an important priority and 5 means Very important priority.

34 Two-Thirds (65%) of Respondents Believe that the Mayor Should Help Build a System that Would Connect Transportation Modes Across the Region 5 - Strongly agree 4 17% 48% 65% 3 18% Strongly disagree Don't know/no opinion 6% 3% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q20. Do you believe the mayor should help build a transportation system that would connect highways, bus service, train service, bike trails, and other transportation modes across the region? Please use a scale of 1 to 5 for your answer, where 1 means strongly disagree and 5 means strongly agree.

35 Most Respondents (85%) Feel it is Important that the City Work With Businesses to Create Jobs and Provide Food and Services to Underserved Areas 5 - Very important 4 17% 68% 85% Not very important Don't know/no opinion 7% 1% 4% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q25. The city has been working with a private developer to build a supermarket in the East End, which is currently a food desert. How important is it that the city work with these types of businesses to create jobs and provide food and services in areas that are currently underserved? Please use a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important.

36 Nearly a Quarter of Respondents Approve of the City s $33M Investment in the Stone Brewing Project 5 - I approve very much % 11% 23% 16% 24% 1 - I do not approve at all 29% Don't know/no opinion 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q21. Much attention has been paid to the Stone Brewing project and the fact that the City put up $33 million in public money and incentives for the brewery. Please rate your approval of this investment using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is I do not approve at all and 5 is I approve very much.

37 Only One in Five Respondents Are Aware That the City Will Receive $27M More Than Invested in Rent for the Stone Brewing Facility Yes 19% No 81% n = 1, Q22. Are you aware that the city will receive $60 million in total rent for the Stone Brewing facility, which is $27 million more than the city spent?

38 Respondents in the Eighth District are significantly more likely to be unaware that the Stone Brewing Project will create hundreds of jobs (67%). Nearly Half of Respondents Are Aware That the Stone Brewing Project Will Create Hundreds of Jobs Yes 49% No 51% n = 1, Q23. Are you aware that the Stone Brewing project will create hundreds of jobs?

39 When Asked Again to Rate Their Approval of the Stone Brewing Project After Being Given Additional Information, Half of Respondents Now Approve of the City s Investment 5 - I approve very much % 21% 30% 51% 2 7% 1 - I do not approve at all 16% Don't know/no opinion 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q24. Now that you know these two facts, please again rate your approval of the city s $33 million investment in the Stone Brewing project using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is I do not approve at all and 5 is I approve very much.

40 The Presentation of Additional Information Regarding Job Growth and Projected Rent Significantly Lifted Approval Ratings of the Stone Brewing Project 100% 80% 60% % 40% 20% 0% 24% 13% 11% Q21 Approval Rating 5 - I approve very much 4 30% 21% Q24 Approval Rating (after additional information) n = 1, Q21. Much attention has been paid to the Stone Brewing project and the fact that the City put up $33 million in public money and incentives for the brewery. Please rate your approval of this investment using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is I do not approve at all and 5 is I approve very much. Q24. Now that you know these two facts, please again rate your approval of the city s $33 million investment in the Stone Brewing project using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is I do not approve at all and 5 is I approve very much.

41 Ratings are for respondents who answered no to Q22 and Q23. This Lift is Even More Pronounced for Respondents Who Were Unaware of Both Facts Approval Ratings Tripled for These Respondents 100% 80% 60% 40% % 28% 20% 0% 16% 8% 8% Q21 Approval Rating 5 - I approve very much 4 20% Q24 Approval Rating (after additional information) n = Q21. Much attention has been paid to the Stone Brewing project and the fact that the City put up $33 million in public money and incentives for the brewery. Please rate your approval of this investment using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is I do not approve at all and 5 is I approve very much. Q24. Now that you know these two facts, please again rate your approval of the city s $33 million investment in the Stone Brewing project using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is I do not approve at all and 5 is I approve very much.

42 Qualities of Next Mayor 42

43 On average, the proportion of respondents who selected don t know for these qualities is 1%. Respondents Feel Most Tested Qualities Are Important of the Ideal Mayor Is trustworthy 7% 91% 98% Is honest 6% 91% 97% Is a unifier 17% 73% 90% Is respected 17% 73% 90% Is a proven leader 19% 67% 86% Promotes change 22% 63% 85% Very important 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1, Q10. I m going to read you a list of qualities which could describe the ideal mayor. Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important, how important is it that the ideal mayor has each of these qualities? The first/next one is...

44 The Important Qualities of the Ideal Mayor Are Consistent Across Districts Is trustworthy 97% 99% 99% 96% 98% 100% 97% 96% 93% Is honest 99% 98% 99% 95% 99% 100% 98% 96% 94% Is a unifier 89% 93% 94% 86% 91% 86% 92% 93% 86% Is respected 91% 87% 92% 91% 91% 89% 91% 92% 85% Is a proven leader 83% 83% 89% 88% 83% 91% 86% 91% 84% Promotes change 77% 79% 87% 77% 85% 90% 92% 91% 86% 44 n = 1,879 Percentages represent proportion of respondents who selected 4 or 5 Very important. Q10. I m going to read you a list of qualities which could describe the ideal mayor. Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important, how important is it that the ideal mayor has each of these qualities? The first/next one is...

45 Older Generations Find the Mayoral Traits of Being Respected and Being a Proven Leader More Important than Other Generations, While Millennials Find Promoting Change Significantly More Important than Older Generations Millennials Gen X Boomers Silent / GI n = 627 n = 465 n = 541 n = 221 Is trustworthy 97% 97% 98% 97% Is honest 98% 97% 97% 97% Is a unifier 89% 88% 92%* 89% Is respected 86% 91% 92%* 94%* Is a proven leader 87% 83% 88%* 90%* Promotes change 90%* 83% 83% 82% 45 Q10. I m going to read you a list of qualities which could describe the ideal mayor. Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not very important and 5 is very important, how important is it that the ideal mayor has each of these qualities? The first/next one is...

46 Respondents from the First and Fourth Districts feel most strongly that the mayoral position should be a sole job (84% and 83%, respectively). Nearly Three-Quarters of Respondents Believe the Position of Mayor Should be the Mayor s Sole Job Yes 74% No 21% Don't know/ No opinion 5% n = 1, Q13. Do you believe the position of mayor should be the mayor s sole job? By sole job, we mean the next mayor of the City of Richmond would not work on other personal outside employment engagements or opportunities that take time and attention away from being the City s mayor.

47 47 Thank You