Week in review. What we ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex Economic tables (A1) January 13, 2017

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1 What we ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex Economic tables (A1) Week in review Canada In December, the Teranet National Bank National Composite House Price Index rose 0.3% from the month before on gains in 8 of the 11 regions covered. The monthly advance exceeded the average increase of 0.1% for December since the index s inception in Prices were up in Toronto (+1.2%), Victoria (+1.2%), Quebec City (+0.6%), Calgary (+0.6%), Hamilton (+0.4%), Halifax (0.4%), Ottawa- Gatineau (+0.3%) and Edmonton (+0.1%). They were down in Montreal (-0.5%), Vancouver (-0.8%) and Winnipeg (-1.2%). On a y/y basis, the index sprang 12.3%, its largest 12-month movement since June 2010, driven by Toronto (+19.7%), Victoria (+17.7%), Hamilton (+17.5%) and Vancouver (+17.0%). The lift was much smaller from Ottawa-Gatineau (+3.6%), Winnipeg (+3.4%), Halifax (+1.5%), Montreal (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.1%). Prices in Quebec City were down 0.7% from a year earlier. National house price inflation has shed momentum in recent months as Vancouver continues to deflate. Canada s priciest city recorded its third consecutive monthly retreat and more is to come. The price drop so far has been concentrated primarily in dwellings other than condos. This is consistent with the fact that house sales have been falling since peaking in February and that the decline has been concentrated mostly in the detached dwellings segment. Toronto, Hamilton and Victoria are the three regions still pulling the Composite Index upward month after month. Outside Vancouver and these three regions, house prices have been flat in the past six months Still in December, housing starts jumped 10.6% to 207K, well above the 190K expected by consensus. The result was attributable to higher urban starts (+11.8%) as rural starts were roughly level. The increase in urban areas was split between multis (+14%) and single-family homes (+8%). On a regional basis, urban starts were up sharply in Ontario (+37%) and Quebec (+12.5%) and registered a small progression in the Prairies (+1.5%). This more than offset decreases in British Columbia (-10%) and Atlantic Canada (-16%). In November, building permits were about flat in dollar terms after increasing an upwardly revised 10.5% the prior month. The value of non-residential permits rose 3% propelled by applications for industrial and institutional projects. However, this was offset by a 1.6% decline in the value of residential permits. In real terms, residential permits rose 0.5% as a 3.3% increase for multis more than counterweighed a 4.8% drop for single-family homes. Both housing starts and permit applications were better than anticipated. The increase in real residential building permits suggests residential construction has room to run in the coming months. However, mortgage rules implemented by the federal government last year will take steam out of demand and subsequently out of supply. Consequently, we expect housing starts in 2017 to fall to roughly 180K, a level more in line with demographic needs. The winter edition of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (conducted from November 14 to December 13) showed that the business outlook improved since autumn. Though firms reported no sales growth in the past 12 months, they expected a strong acceleration over the next year. Intentions to invest in machinery and equipment were at their highest in more than two years as the balance of opinion shot up to 24 percentage points. The responses reflected mounting domestic demand, a supportive export outlook and an expected recovery in energy-related activity. Capacity pressures remained roughly unchanged, with only 37% of respondents stating either some or significant difficulty in meeting an unexpected increase in demand. However, the proportion of respondents facing labour shortages increased. Accordingly, hiring intentions improved, as the balance of opinion for future employment jumped to 37 percentage points, its highest mark since 2014Q3. Moreover, firms reported that credit conditions were largely unchanged. This was consistent with the separately released BoC Senior Loan Officer's Survey for Q4 (conducted from December 5 to 9), which showed non-price lending conditions easing slightly and price conditions remaining unchanged. Finally, the BoC stated that access to capital markets was generally unchanged in Q4 for all grades of borrowers. United States Retail sales rose 0.6% in December, the prior month was upgraded one tick to +0.2% (from +0.1%). December sales were boosted by a 2.4% jump for motor vehicles/parts. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2%, a bit weaker than consensus which was expecting a +0.5% print. But here too, there was a one-tick upward revision to the prior month to

2 +0.3%. December ex-auto sales got a lift from gasoline station receipts (courtesy of higher than seasonal pump prices), furniture, building materials, health/personal care, sporting goods and another big jump for non-store retailers (+1.3%). Those more than offset declines for sellers of electronics, food/beverage, and general merchandise. Discretionary sales, i.e. sales excluding groceries, gasoline, and personal care products, have been strong in recent months, much in line with solid job creation and sky-high consumer confidence. Non-store retailers continue to increase their share of sales, the latter hitting a record 10.4% in December. With December s gains, real retail spending grew roughly 3.6% annualized in Q4, consistent with our view U.S. GDP growth in the last quarter of last year was a touch above 2% annualized. World In December, the China CPI and PPI pegged in at 2.1% y/y (down from 2.3%) and 5.5% y/y (up from 3.3%), respectively. In the Eurozone, industrial production expanded 1.5% in November after swelling a revised 0.1% the prior month. November retail sales were in line with expectations, shrinking 0.4%. October sales growth was revised up to 1.4% from the 1.1% reported earlier. Business inventories rose 0.7% in November, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Sales posted a 0.1% gain in the month. This was following gains of 0.7% and 0.8% in the previous two months. The inventories-to-sales ratio rose from 1.37 in October to 1.38 in November The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in December, taking the year-on-year print to 1.6%, the highest in over two years. The PPI increase was partly due to energy (+2.6%) and food (+0.7%). Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose a milder 0.2% driven by increases for both core goods and services. That allowed the year-on-year core PPI to increase to 1.6%. The core PPI was slightly higher than expected. Upstream inflationary pressures seem to be growing based on the PPI, although price increases seem to be under control for now. In December, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed 7.4 points to 105.8, its highest reading since December Of the 10 index components, seven posted gains, one was unchanged, and two declined. The net percentage of respondents (16%) planning to create jobs over the next three months notched up 1 percentage point from the previous month. The percentage of owners that reported job openings they could not fill was down 2 percentage points to 29%, which still suggested the labour market was tight. In that environment, the net percentage of firms that raised wages in the previous three months was up 5 percentage points to 26%, and a net 20% of firms (up 5 points) indicated that they were planning to increase compensation in the next three months. In November, consumer credit grew by US$24.5 billion, supported by an increase in revolving credit of US$11.0 billion. Again in November, job openings rose 71K to 5.5 million. However, they were down from their peak of 5.8 million reached in April The quit rate was unchanged at 2.1%. In December, import prices rose 0.4% from the month before. They were up 1.8% from a year earlier, their largest y/y gain since March Excluding petroleum, which saw a 7.9% price increase, import prices were down 0.2% in the month. Export prices rose 0.3% m/m. 2

3 What we ll be watching In Canada, a busy week will feature the Bank of Canada s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The overnight rate is likely to be left unchanged at 0.50%, although it will be interesting to see the BoC s new forecasts for the economy in its updated Monetary Policy Report. Crucial November data on the manufacturing and retail sectors will be available. We expect manufacturing shipments to rise 0.9% during the month, based on a rebound in exports of factory goods during the month. Retail sales likely got a boost from autos in November, although lower gasoline station receipts (courtesy of lower pump prices) will provide an offset. We re expecting sales to grow 0.7% overall and to be roughly flat ex-autos. December data on the consumer price index will also be released. Trend inflation has been very low in recent months despite a resilient economy. A return to normal of the latter combined with above seasonal gasoline prices should help limit the decline in the CPI to just 0.1% in December (smaller price decline than usual for this time of year). All told, annual inflation is expected to be 1.6%, up four-tenths from November's level. Previous Boc Rate Decision 0.50% Manufacturing Sales (November m/m % chg.) -0.80% CPI (December y/y % chg.) 1.20% Retail Sales (November m/m % chg.) 1.10% NBF forecasts 0.50% 0.90% 1.60% 0.70% In the U.S., we will get clues about the handoff to 2017 thanks to important December data. CPI data could show the annual inflation rate continuing its upward trend to 2.1% due to a monthly gain of 0.3%. This strength is explained by above-seasonal increases in gasoline prices, and by core inflation which is expected to accelerate in the context of rising wage inflation. Industrial production likely bounced back in December after struggling the prior month. Similarly, housing starts probably increased after the prior months outsized decline. The week will end with the Presidential Inauguration on Friday. Previous CPI (December y/y % chg.) 1.70% Industrial Production (December m/m % chg.) -0.40% NBF forecasts 2.10% 0.50% 3

4 What we ll be watching Elsewhere around the world, China will be releasing Q4 GDP results in conjunction with December retail sales and industrial production. Japan will have November numbers on industrial production and capacity utilization. The European Central Bank will hold its monetary policy meeting and rate decision on Thursday. The annual Davos World Economic Forum will be held from January 17 th to January 20 th, outlining global risk factors and economic conditions. 4

5 Economic calendar - Canada & U.S. Time Country Release Economic releases & events Period Previous Consensus Estimate NBF Estimate Earnings announcements Company Time Qtr Cons. EPS 9:00 CA Existing Home Sales MoM Dec -5.30% -- Monday Jan 16 Tuesday Jan 17 8:30 US Empire Manufacturing Jan UnitedHealth Group Inc Bef-mkt Q Comerica Inc 06:40 Q Morgan Stanley 07:00 Q CSX Corp Aft-mkt Q Linear Technology Corp Aft-mkt Q United Continental Holdings Inc Aft-mkt Q Wednesday Jan 18 7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jan % -- Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd 16:01 Q :30 US CPI MoM Dec 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% US Bancorp Bef-mkt Q :30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% Charles Schwab Corp/The Bef-mkt Q :30 US CPI YoY Dec 1.70% 2.10% 2.10% Fastenal Co 07:00 Q :30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec 2.10% 2.10% 2.20% Northern Trust Corp 07:30 Q :15 US Industrial Production MoM Dec -0.40% 0.60% 0.50% Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 07:30 Q :15 US Capacity Utilization Dec 75.00% 75.40% 75.40% Citigroup Inc 08:00 Q :00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision Jan % 0.50% 0.50% Kinder Morgan Inc/DE Aft-mkt Q :00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Jan Netflix Inc 16:05 Q :00 US Total Net TIC Flows Nov $18.8b -- Thursday Jan 19 8:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions Nov 15.75b -- BB&T Corp Bef-mkt Q :30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Nov -0.80% % M&T Bank Corp Bef-mkt Q :30 US Housing Starts Dec 1090k 1189k 1220k KeyCorp Bef-mkt Q :30 US Housing Starts MoM Dec % 9.10% 11.90% PPG Industries Inc Bef-mkt Q :30 US Building Permits Dec 1201k 1220k 1220k JB Hunt Transport Services Inc Bef-mkt Q :30 US Building Permits MoM Dec -4.70% 0.70% 0.70% Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The 06:30 Q :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan k 252k Union Pacific Corp 07:00 Q Skyworks Solutions Inc Aft-mkt Q People's United Financial Inc 16:00 Q International Business Machines Corp 16:00 Q American Express Co 16:05 Q Friday Jan 20 8:30 CA CPI NSA MoM Dec -0.40% % Schlumberger Ltd 02:00 Q :30 CA CPI YoY Dec 1.20% % Synchrony Financial Bef-mkt Q :30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Nov 1.40% % SunTrust Banks Inc 06:00 Q :30 CA Retail Sales MoM Nov 1.10% % Regions Financial Corp 06:00 Q General Electric Co Bef-mkt Q Rockwell Collins Inc 06:30 Q Citizens Financial Group Inc 07:00 Q Kansas City Southern 08:00 Q Source: Bloomberg 5

6 TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3) Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. UNITED STATES MONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions) M1 * Dec M2 * Dec CREDIT MEASURES Consumer Credit * Nov Mortgage (Banks) * Nov Business * Nov CANADA MONETARY AGGREGATES M2+ gross * Oct Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) * Nov CREDIT MEASURES Consumer * Oct Mortgages * Oct Short - Term Business Loans Sept #VALUE! Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Nov Private (Consumer+Business) * Oct Gov. of Canada securities outstanding * Dec INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES Reference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago UNITED STATES INTEREST RATES Federal Funds Target Rate * 12 Jan Prime Rate * 12 Jan month Treasury Bills * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan Corp. High-yield (BofA ML Master II) * 12 Jan Corp. Invest. Grade (BofA ML Corp. BBB) * 12 Jan Spread Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 12 Jan Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 12 Jan Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 12 Jan EXCHANGE RATE FED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 6 Jan CANADA INTEREST RATES Prime Rate * 12 Jan Target overnight rate * 12 Jan day commercial paper * 12 Jan month Treasury Bills * 12 Jan year Treasury Bills * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan year Bonds * 12 Jan SPREADS Prime - 30d. Commercial paper * 12 Jan Long Term - Short Term * 12 Jan CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS 3-month T-Bills * 12 Jan Long Term Bonds * 12 Jan EXCHANGE RATE US$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 12 Jan Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 12 Jan STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-date Thursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec. Dow Jones (U.S.) * 12 Jan S&P 500 (U.S.) * 12 Jan NASDAQ (U.S.) * 12 Jan S&P/TSX (Can.) * 12 Jan * Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year, Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream unless otherwise stated A1

7 TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9) Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. Index of 12 Leading Indicators Nov Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Dec I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Dec Non-manufacturing (level) Dec DOMESTIC DEMAND Sales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Dec Retail Sales * Dec Motor vehicle * Dec Other * Dec Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Nov Total ($ constant) Nov Personal Income Nov Personal Savings Rate (3) Nov New Orders Nov Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft Nov Unfilled Orders Nov Business Inventories * Nov Inventories / Shipments Businesses * Nov Manufacturers' Shipments Nov Manufacturers' Inventories Nov Inventories / Shipments Manuf. Nov Housing Starts (000) (1) Nov New Home Sales, single-family Nov Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos Nov PRODUCTION Industrial Production Nov Consumer Goods Nov Hitech goods Nov EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCES Exports Nov Imports Nov Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) Nov Real merchandise trade balance Nov Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) * Dec INFLATION AND COSTS Consumer Prices Nov Excluding Food and Energy Nov PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy Nov Producer price index for final demand * Dec Average Hourly Earnings (4) Dec Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Nov Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Nov LABOUR MARKET New Jobs (000) (6) Dec Manufacturing (000) Dec Services (000) Dec Average weekly hours (6) Dec Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Dec NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q Q Q Q Q Q Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars Consumption Residential Construction Business Investment Machinery and Equipment #VALUE! 0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE! Government Spending Exports Imports Change in Inventories (1) (2) GDP Deflator Personal Disposable Income Q Q Q Q Q Q Labour Productivity (4) Unit Labor Costs (4) Q Q Q Q Q Q Current Account (current $) as a % of GDP Q Q Q Q Q Q Corporate Profits (8) as a % of GDP * Update Source: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream (1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the (2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise (3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated (4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes A2

8 TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (6) Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. CFIB Business Barometer Dec DOMESTIC DEMAND Retail Sales ($ current) Oct Motor vehicle and parts dealers Oct Other Oct Retail Sales ($ constant) Oct Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) Oct New Orders Oct Durables Oct Unfilled Orders Oct Manufacturer's Inventories Oct Inventories / Shipments Ratio Oct Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) Oct Housing Starts (000) (1) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Aug PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product Oct Manufacturing Oct Construction Oct Services Oct EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCES Exports Nov Imports Nov Capital Goods Nov Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) Nov ,024-4,246-1,581-2,172-2,361-2,081-2,493-2,008 Change in Official Reserves Dec ,965 2,965 3,377 Level (US$): $82.7 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) Oct INFLATION AND COSTS Consumer Prices Nov Excluding Food and Energy Nov Core inflation (4) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (2) Dec Price of New Housing icluding land * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Industrial Prices (1992=100) Nov LABOUR MARKET Labour Force Dec Job creation (000) Dec Manufacturing Dec Services Dec Full Time Dec Part Time Dec Unemployment Rate Dec NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q Q Q Q Q Q GDP Chained (2007) $ Household consumption Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip Machinery and Equipment Residential Construction Government Expenditures Government Fixed Capital Formation Final Domestic Demand Exports Imports Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) Real Disposible Income Personal savings Rate GDP Price Deflator Corporate Profits (nominal) as a % of GDP Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate Labour Productivity, Business Sector Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector Q Q Q Q Q Q Current Account (current $) (5) as a % of GDP Sources: Thomson reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real Estate Association * Update (1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes (2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions (3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated A3

9 TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3) Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. QUEBEC Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! -2.8 #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment rate Dec Participation rate Dec ONTARIO Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Sep 2016 #REF! #REF! #REF! #VALUE! -3.5 #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment rate Dec Participation rate Dec NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Sep #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov Number CFIB Business of commercial Barometer bankrupties (1) Dec Sep #VALUE! #VALUE! 13.2 Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association * Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated A4

10 TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4) Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3) Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. NOVA SCOTIA Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! 10.8 #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec NEW BRUNSWICK Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! 1.8 #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec MANITOBA Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! -5.6 #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec SASKATCHEWAN Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association * Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated A5

11 TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5) Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3) Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. ALBERTA Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec BRITISH COLUMBIA Retail Sales Oct Manufacturing Shipments Oct Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov Wages and Salaries Sept Value of merchandise exports * Nov CFIB Business Barometer Dec Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep #VALUE! -5.0 #VALUE! Consumer Price Index (1) Nov Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov Job creation (000) Dec Unemployment Dec Participation rate Dec Sources: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats * Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated A6

12 TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (2) Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec. OECD leading index * Nov JAPAN Consumer confidence - percenbtage (1) * Dec Retail Sales (1) Nov Industrial Production, Volume Index Nov Exports Nov Imports Nov Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ) * Nov ,225 5,546 5,350 5,707 5,314 4,108 1,738 48,189-7,133 Current account (Billions of ) * Nov ,831 1,468 Inflation (CPI) Nov Job offers to applicants ratio Nov Unemployment Rate Nov Q Q Q Q Q Q Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) Euro-zone Volume Retail Sales Nov Industrial Production exc. Construction * Nov Exports Oct Imports Oct Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) Oct ,698 24,433 22,891 22,340 22,509 22,114 22, , ,708 Inflation (CPI) Dec Unemployment Rate * Nov Q Q Q Q Q Q #VALUE! Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) #VALUE! UNITED KINGDOM Consumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Dec Retail Sales Nov Manufacturing, energy and mining output * Nov Exports (1) * Nov Imports (1) * Nov Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of ) * Nov ,163-9,885-13,832-11,960-12,391-12,897-11, , ,752 Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Nov Producer price index, manufacturing (1) Nov House prices * Dec Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) Oct Q Q Q Q Q Q Gross Domestic Product (Constant ) INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES Reference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago JAPAN Prime Rate * 12 Jan month Financing Bill Rate * 12 Jan Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 12 Jan Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan Exchange Rate ( /U.S.$) * 12 Jan Euro Zone 3-month Treasury Bills * 12 Jan Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 12 Jan #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! $$ER: E100 - Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #VALUE! Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 12 Jan (Yen/Euro) * 12 Jan (Euro / ) * 12 Jan UNITED KINGDOM Prime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 12 Jan Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 12 Jan Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / ) * 12 Jan STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since Past Prev. Month beginning of year Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec. MSCI Eafe * Jan * Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream A7

13 TABLE 6 - COMMODITY Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Last Prev. Week For the Last Last Jan 12 Jan 5 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS Total Energy Grain Industrials Livestock & Meat Precious Metals PRECIOUS METALS Gold ($/ounce) (AM fixing London) Platinum ($/ounce) (AM fixing London) Silver ($/ounce) (Handy & Harman) Palladium ($/ounce troy) OTHER METALS (LME) Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,791 1, ,490 Copper ($/tonne) 5,814 5, ,420 Zinc ($/tonne) 2,710 2, ,504 Nickel ($/tonne) 10,224 10, ,543 Lead ($/tonne) 2,194 2, ,633 Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) OTHER COMMODITIES Oil WTI ($/barrel) future (NYMEX) Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future (West Canadian select - CME) Corn ( /bushel) (Illinois #2) Soy beans ( /bushel) (Illinois #1) Pork ( /lb) Beef (Cattle feeder index) (CME) Soft Wood Pulp (HWWI) Index 2010 = 100 Natural Gas (mmbtu) Henry Hub future NYMEX Lumber 2X Iron ore ($/metric ton) All prices are in US dollars Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream A8

14 ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY Montreal Office Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Kyle Dahms Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist Toronto Office Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Warren Lovely Senior Economist Geopolitical Analyst MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy General National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. 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