Q1/16
|
|
- Albert Hancock
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Highlights May 1 We see U.S. economic growth accelerating to -plus in the second half of the year. Given that outlook, we continue to believe that by mid-september the FOMC will be confident enough of fulfilling its dual mandate over time to embark on a gradual recalibration of its policy stance. The target fed funds range, in our view, will be..7 by year end, up basis points from the current zero.. Though the market still puts the odds of a further Bank of Canada rate cut this year at slightly more than, we think the combination of improving growth and sticky core inflation will be enough to negate the need for additional easing. In our base case scenario, the BoC stays on the sidelines until Q 1. Paul-André Pinsonnault Forecast dated April, 1 United States Quarters Fed Fund Mth Bill YR YR 1YR YR /17/ Q Q Q Q1/ Q Q Q Q1/ Canada Quarters Overnight Mth Bill YR YR 1YR YR /17/ Q Q Q Q1/ Q Q Q Q1/
2 The euro zone gaining momentum While indicators of the global economy disappointed in Q1, those of the euro zone were better than expected. From a low of 7. in October, the euro-zone economic surprise index bounced back significantly to +. as of April 17. While some green shoots from the ECB initiatives are apparent, it is of course too early to talk about tapering of euro-zone QE. ECB president Mario Draghi has been clear that the asset purchase programme (APP) must be fully implemented in order to work. By showing its resolve, the ECB has pushed euro-zone long rates down further. Euro zone economic surprise index NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Eurozone: ECB intends to fully implement its APP Ten-year yields driven down by the asset purchase programme (APP) 7 1 DEU NBF Economics & Strategy (data via Bloomberg) ITA FRA ESP The hope that the euro zone is gaining momentum is further supported by the ECB s bank lending survey. It shows not only banks easing their credit conditions to businesses in Q1, but a record net percentage of banks expecting that business demand for loans or credit lines will strengthen in the coming three months. Euro zone: net of banks expecting increased demand for business loans NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Almost half of euro-zone banks reported that the ECB asset purchase program was having positive effects on their financing conditions, effects that they expect will translate into a further easing of credit standards for lending to corporations over the next six months. All this is good news, but the zone must still deal with Greece. With its deposit facility charging negative interest and a large APP under way, the ECB has two feet in uncharted waters. A Greek default would create even touchier new uncertainties for the European economy. On that point, Mr. Draghi said the zone was better equipped now to deal with a Greek crisis. Fed liftoff receding? Going into the first quarter, the futures market was pricing the fed funds rate to average basis points over the month of October. Since then the market expectation has drifted down, postponing the arrival of that monthly average rate level by five months to next March. Not only do market expectations for liftoff date and the pace of normalization seem to have been unmoored by slow economic growth in Q1, but some Fed officials now see little urgency for a first rate hike. Among them, Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart, speaking to reporters after an April 1 speech, said June might still be on the table but he would prefer a later date. Even Federal Reserve vicechair Stanley Fischer, in a recent interview, showed no eagerness for early liftoff, though he made the point that the market cannot expect the Fed to remain accommodative forever.
3 Fed funds futures: A slower pace of normalization NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Dec. 1 April 1 Adding to the uncertainty about the timing of normalization are headwinds to economic growth and inflation resulting from the strength of the greenback. More-expensive exports and more-competitive imports could brake U.S. economic growth (other factors equal) by about. percentage points, according to estimates by New York Fed staff. Hardly a comforting prospect for those who fear that premature rate hikes could undermine the expansion all by themselves. The pace at which slack in the labour market and in other resources is taken up in the coming months, together with the outlook for inflation, will be key to Fed confidence about when to pull the trigger. At some point the economic indicators will support a hike in the target fed funds rate. The pace of normalization and the ultimate level of short-term rates will then take centre stage as objects of prognostication for market participants and as influences on the shape of the yield curve. The predictability of Fed actions and the coherence of its communications will be key to avoidance of market turbulence. Though bad weather, the hit to capital spending from the energy-price slide, and drag from net exports made for a soft patch in the first quarter, we remain upbeat about U.S. GDP growth this year. Rising real incomes and supportive financial conditions will help the economy regain momentum. We see growth accelerating to -plus in the second half of the year. Given that outlook, we continue to believe that by mid-september the FOMC will be confident enough of fulfilling its dual mandate over time to embark on a gradual recalibration of its policy stance. The target fed funds range, in our view, will be..7 by year end, up basis points from the current zero.. The Fed s balance sheet Total $. trillion, including $. trillion in Treasuries at market value,,,,,,,, 1, 1, Billion $ NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Further down the road, the normalization of U.S. monetary policy may be complicated by the path of the greenback This will be especially true if financial-stability considerations call for a more aggressive policy stance. Raising the fed funds rate significantly at a time when other central banks were still deploying further stimulus in support of their respective economies would create further upward pressure on the U.S. dollar. The unwelcome consequences for U.S. exporters and those competing with imports in the domestic market would be politically unacceptable. In such a pass, it cannot be excluded that the FOMC, somewhat constrained in its action at the front end of the yield curve but needing tighter financial conditions, would wish for the return of a larger term premium on long Treasuries. Treasuries: Term premium of 1-year zero-coupon Fisher equation: R = real rate + E(inflation) + premium year term premium 1-year nominal Term premium: median 1., maximum.9, minimum., latest NBF Economics and Strategy (data via New York Fed) In other words, the Fed might want financial conditions to be tightened by higher long rates while it kept short rates unchanged. It could trigger such a bear steepening of the yield curve by selling some of its long-term assets. Again, coherence and clarity of communications would be critical
4 to the achievement of such an outcome in a fairly orderly manner. At this writing, with risks to financial stability perceived as still muted, a Fed-engineered bear steepening of the curve remains food for thought. As time goes by and rates remain low and stable, the odds of such an outcome will slowly creep up. But that s more of a story for later in 1. U.S. interest rates Weekly observations and quarter-end forecasts Target fed funds upper bound Interest rate forecast /17/1 Q Q Q Q1/1 Q Q Q Q1/17 F.F. - upper bound YR YR Forward 1-yr rate NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) With data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that the recent plunge in oil rigs is finally starting to crimp U.S. crude oil output, spot WTI appears to have bottomed. Since this development helps stabilize longerterm inflation expectations and since we think economic growth will accelerate to above trend in coming months, we continue to see 1-year Treasuries trading slightly above. in late and in Canada U.S. 1-year U.S. -year The Bank of Canada now projects annualized GDP growth rates of zero in Q1, 1. in Q,. in Q and. in Q. Despite the projected strong growth in the second half of the year, the market still puts the odds of a further rate cut this year at slightly more than. Canada bonds maturing in years are trading at., 1 basis points below the Bank s overnight rate. Obviously not everyone is convinced the Bank is right in its assessment that the effect on growth of the oil price shock was not larger than anticipated, just more front-loaded. Time will tell. But even if the transition from a very weak first quarter to growth well above trend proves somewhat slower than the Bank projects, we think the combination of improving growth and sticky core inflation will be enough to negate the need for additional rate cuts. Moreover, federal fiscal stimulus looks to amount to roughly. of GDP in 1-1. That will go far to offset planned and prospective provincial belt-tightening. In our base case scenario, the Canadian economy expands in 1. That rate is at the upper bound of the Bank s projection for the growth of Canadian potential output (1. to.). As long as the Canadian economy has excess capacity to absorb and foreign exchange markets are adjusting to implementation of the ECB asset purchase program, we do not see the Bank having any appetite for a higher overnight rate. Our base case scenario is still one in which the Bank lags the Fed in rate hikes. Our year end forecast for both the overnight and 1-year rates are unchanged from last month. Canadian interest rates Weekly observations and quarter-end forecasts BoC overnight target Canada -year NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Canada 1-year Interest rate forecast /17/1 Q Q Q Q1/1 Q Q Q Q1/17 Overnight YR YR Forward 1-yr rate On a rolling 1-week basis, mid-term provincial bonds total returns are 1 basis points larger than those of Canadas. This compares to a basis points value added for mid corporates. However, the provincial out performance was concentrated in the last weeks of January and first week of February. Mid term: added value relative to Canadas Total returns mid corporates and mid provincials minus mid Canadas Rolling 1-week excess return Weekly excess return Mid Term Provincials Q 1Q 1Q Mid Term Corporates 1Q1 1Q... Weekly excess return Rolling 1-week excess return Q 1Q 1Q 1Q1 1Q NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream) 1--17
5 MONTHLY FIXED INCOME MONITOR. Canadiann Bond Market Total Returns Cash Total Returns Since /17/ /1 Since Since Since //1 1/1/1 1/17/1 /1/ Canada Short Mid Long Univers se Provincial Municipal Corporate AA A BBB Univers se Total S&P/TSX NBF Economics & Strategy (data via Datastream) U.S. interest rates Last observation April 17, Long corporate 7 -year mortgage U.S. -year 1 Target fed funds U.S. 1-year NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Canadian interest rates Weekly, last observation April 17, 1 Long corporate A 7 Long provincial Canadaa 1-year Canada -year BoC overnight target NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg) Bond Market - Canada Interest Rates 9-day (B/A's) years years 1 years years Spreads 9 d - years - years - 1 years 1 - years Currencies CAD / USD EUR / CAD Close-on /17/ / // /1/1 1/17/ /1/ Source: NBF Economy and Strategy (data via Bloomberg)
6 ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY Montreal Office Toronto Office Stéfane Marion Chief Economist & Strategist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Krishen Rangasamy Senior Economist Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Matthieu Arseneau Senior Economist Warren Lovely MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy General: National Bank Financial Markets is a business undertaken by National Bank Financial Inc. ( NBF ), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada, and a division of National Bank of Canada. This research has been produced by NBF. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor. U.S. Residents: With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by, research analysts employed by non-us affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker/dealers in the US. These non-us research analysts are not registered as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research analysts and trading securities held a research analyst account. All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. Because the views of analysts may differ, members of the National Bank Financial Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further inquiry related to this report, United States residents should contact their NBCFI registered representative. UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, National Bank Financial Inc. has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 1(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act ). National Bank Financial Inc. and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. National Bank Financial Inc. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, ECM HD. National Bank Financial Inc. is not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept deposits in the United Kingdom. Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.
Special Report. Minimum wage: How much is too much? Economics and Strategy. Summary. Ontario goes for it
Economics and Strategy September 27, 2017 Minimum wage: How much is too much? Summary In June the Ontario government announced its intention to raise the province s minimum wage by the most in 50 years:
More informationHighlights. Forecast dated January 5, United States. Canada. Paul-André Pinsonnault. January 2018
Highlights January 1 Given our expectation of above-potential GDP growth in the U.S. and its already-low unemployment rate, we see CPI inflation ex food and energy accelerating to.3 in Q4 1. In our view,
More informationQ1/19
Highlights May 2018 With the U.S. economic expansion still on track, we think the 10-year yield will drift to a new trading range slightly above 3. Though we recognize that the risks are skewed toward
More informationA budget kept in balance by a draw from the stabilization reserve
March 27, 2018 A budget kept in balance by a draw from the stabilization reserve Highlights Quebec 2018 Budget Economics and Strategy Despite $848 million in additional spending in fiscal 2017-18, the
More informationSpecial Report. Where are we in the cycle? Economics and Strategy. What does the yield curve say? Summary. What are the probabilities of recession?
Economics and Strategy May 18, 017 Where are we in the cycle? Summary The odds of a recession in Canada or the U.S. in the years ahead is a contentious question in the economic community and the media.
More informationCyclical USD weakness
May 215 Cyclical USD weakness The trade-weighted US dollar s impressive run ended with a nearly 2% decline in April, the worst monthly performance since September 213. Weaker than expected US economic
More informationSpecial Report. Reality check: Are Canadian households perched over a sinkhole?
Reality check: Are Canadian households perched over a sinkhole? May 10, 2018 Reality check: Are Canadian households perched over a sinkhole? By Matthieu Arseneau There are widespread concerns about the
More informationA rate hike for Christmas
December 215 A rate hike for Christmas A December interest rate hike isn t fully priced-in by markets and as such there is upside potential for the USD if the FOMC delivers on its repeated warnings that
More informationHalifax, Vancouver and St.Catharines on the podium
April 23, 2018 Halifax, Vancouver and St.Catharines on the podium According to our proprietary Metropolitan Economic Momentum Index (see page 3 for methodology), Halifax enjoyed the largest economic upswing
More informationJob creation surges in Canada By Stéfane Marion
February 11, 19 Job creation surges in Canada By Stéfane Marion Canadian economic reports have now bettered expectations for almost eight consecutive weeks. As the chart below shows, Citi s index of economic
More informationHighlights. April 2016
Highlights April 216 We are relieved that Beijing has veered away from currency devaluation in its effort to spur growth. The authorities announced a fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP for 216, up from 2.5% last
More informationSaskatchewan 2018 Budget
Sticking to the plan: On track for a surplus in 2019-20 Highlights Saskatchewan 2018 Budget Economics and Strategy April 10, 2018 Saskatchewan s 2017-18 deficit is now estimated at $595 million (0.8% of
More informationHighlights. Stéfane Marion Matthieu Arseneau December 2017
December 217 Highlights The MSCI AC is on track to return more than 15% this year, the best showing in four years. Importantly, the equity rally remains fuelled by better-than-expected profits. As long
More informationMay Highlights
Highlights May 215 Global equities rose to another all-time high in April. Encouragingly, the gains have been widespread. All major regions show positive returns so far in 215. Markets where central banks
More informationNew Brunswick 2018 Budget
New investments mean one year delay in return to balance Highlights New Brunswick 2018 Budget Economics and Strategy January 30, 2018 New Brunswick bettered its key fiscal targets in 2017-18 and by a non-trivial
More informationIS IT TIME TO PULL BACK STIMULUS?
August 1, 17 IS IT TIME TO PULL BACK STIMULUS? Summary Central bankers have shown over the years that there can indeed be too much of a good thing. Ultra-loose monetary policy stimulus may have been warranted
More informationCan the loonie make a comeback?
Can the loonie make a comeback? December 217 Even considering the low rate of U.S. inflation, monetary policy in the world s largest economy is arguably too loose. It s the first time since the 197 s that
More informationThe impossible trinity
February 216 The impossible trinity China is learning, the hard way, about the impossible trinity. You just cannot have free capital flows, a fixed exchange rate and independent monetary policy all at
More informationOntario Economic Outlook & Fiscal Review
Ontario Economic Outlook & Fiscal Review Economics and Strategy November 15, 2018 First steps towards fiscal recovery with long-term plan to come 10 highlights from Ontario s 2018 Economic Outlook and
More informationTable of Contents. Week in review. What we ll be watching... p. 3 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 5 Annex Economic tables...
February 10, 2017 Table of Contents What we ll be watching... p. 3 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 5 Annex Economic tables... A1 annualized as gains in energy, metal ores, mineral products, forestry,
More information2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4
Feeding the beast November 2017 The U.S. economy is doing well enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to consider further tightening of monetary policy. A December rate hike is in the cards, assuming of
More informationTrade war = slower earnings growth
Trade war = slower earnings growth June 18, 2018 China announced last Saturday that it would retaliate tit-for-tat (same amounts and same dates) if the U.S. follows through on its decision to impose tariffs
More informationEarnings diffusion at a 2-year low
Earnings diffusion at a 2-year low October 9, 2018 Global equities ended the first week of Q4 2018 on a negative note with the MSCI AC retreating 1.5%. Emerging markets were hit particularly hard with
More informationWhat s next in the seemingly never-ending Brexit Saga? By Angelo Katsoras
What s next in the seemingly never-ending Brexit Saga? By Angelo Katsoras March 11, 2019 Introduction When it comes to Brexit, the only certainty, it appears, is that there will be more uncertainty. Political
More informationBudget deficits and the U.S. dollar
Budget deficits and the U.S. dollar March 218 The February announcement by Congress that it would increase government spending this year and next will prompt a temporary growth spurt in the U.S. but have
More informationHighlights. Stéfane Marion Matthieu Arseneau December 2018
December 218 Highlights After a promising rebound in November, global equity markets fell back early in December. The outlook for earnings growth remains uncertain. The good news is that at the G2 meeting
More informationNew yield forecast ECBs soft tone postpones expected tightening to 2011
Investeringsanalyse Marts New yield forecast ECBs soft tone postpones expected tightening to Latest market developments Generally speaking the economic data continue to point to a sustainable economic
More informationDollarama Inc. Q2 F2017 Preview. (1) Growth expected to continue (2) A deeper look at valuation HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin.
DOL (T) $97.04 Stock Rating: Outperform (Unchanged) Target: $105.00 (Was $104.00) Risk Rating: Average (Unchanged) Est. Total Return: 8.6% Stock Data: 52-week High-Low (Canada) Bloomberg $98.94 - $66.32
More informationCan the greenback repeat the feat in 2015?
January 215 Can the greenback repeat the feat in 215? The U.S. dollar just had its best year since 1997 after appreciating nearly 9% in trade-weighted terms. The end of QE by the Fed clearly helped, but
More informationThe behind the scenes struggle to choose the ECB's next leader By Angelo Katsoras
The behind the scenes struggle to choose the ECB's next leader By Angelo Katsoras March 13, 2019 Europe s faltering economy and fractious politics, which limit the capacity of members to agree on important
More informationTHE TRUMPQUAKE. Are you not entertained? Summary. The markets like the show, for now. November 10, 2016
November 10, 2016 THE TRUMPQUAKE Summary The Republican Party is in a good position to advance its agenda after winning the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note December 17, 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalization process by
More informationStock-bond correlations: Are we at an inflection point?
Stock-bond correlations: Are we at an inflection point? Historical perspective December 4, 2018 The correlation between U.S. equity prices and U.S. Treasury yields has fluctuated significantly over the
More informationTable of Contents. Week in review. What we ll be watching... p. 4 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 5 Annex Economic tables...
May 11, 2018 Table of Contents What we ll be watching... p. 4 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 5 Annex Economic tables... A1 Week in review CANADA: Canadian employment fell 1.1K in April according to
More informationHighlights. Stéfane Marion Matthieu Arseneau January/February 2018
January/February 218 Highlights After a spectacular 217 that saw global equities return more than 17.5, the MSCI All Country index has continued to do extremely well early in 218 with a gain of 5.7 year
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note 17 December 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalisation process by
More informationSavaria Corporation. Q2/17 Results. Span contribution begins; guidance revised (unsurprisingly) upwards HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin
SIS (T) $15.06 Stock Rating: Outperform Target: $17.00 Risk Rating: Above Average Est. Total Return 14.6% Stock Data: 52-w eek High-Low $17.55 - $7.74 Bloomberg/Reuters SIS CN / SIS.TO Shares Outstanding
More informationGlobal Inflation. Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing. 27 October /
Global Inflation Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg Mikael Olai Milhøj Senior Analyst, Euro area macro research Senior Analyst, US and UK macro
More informationTable of Contents. Week in review. What we ll be watching... p. 4 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 5 Annex Economic tables...
January 12, 2018 Table of Contents What we ll be watching... p. 4 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 5 Annex Economic tables... A1 Week in review CANADA: decreased for the first time in three months in
More informationRates Will Continue to Go Up in 2018
DECEMBER 1, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Rates Will Continue to Go Up in #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The economic context remains very favourable. ff Interest rates will continue to rise
More informationDollarama Inc. Q4 F2017 Results. A straight-forward beat and other notable business updates HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin.
DOL (T) $110.88 Stock Rating: Outperform (Unchanged) Target: $122.00 (Was $113.00) Risk Rating: Below Average (Unchanged) Est. Total Return: 10.4% Stock Data: 52-week High-Low (Canada) Bloomberg $104.94
More informationOptimistic Fed supportive of USD
Optimistic Fed supportive of USD August 218 The U.S. dollar s near term prospects remain good amidst a hot economy that is prompting the Fed to tighten monetary policy. The return of risk aversion in the
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
Canada and US Long-Run Economic Outlook: 2018 23 Over the long run Canadian real GDP is expected to grow at 1.8 annually, reflecting relatively weak productivity and modest labour input growth, slightly
More informationFederal Reserve preview: A glass half full
Economic and Financial Analysis Global Economics Article Federal Reserve preview: A glass half full After December s rate hike, the Federal Reserve indicated it would slow the pace of interest rate rises
More informationTop Charts. Top Charts. Canada: Top charts to think about going into December 22, 2017
Top Charts Canada: Top charts to think about going into 218 December 22, 21 1 Canada: Top charts to think about going into 218 The holiday season is upon us, promising, as every year, to bring its share
More informationPublic Sector Debt. Quick Hit Record net portfolio investment in January. FICC Strategy. Chart 2: Cheaper loonie attracts foreign buying
1999 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 FICC Strategy Quick Hit Record net portfolio investment in January March 18, 19 - (Vol. III, No. 36) Foreign net buying of Canadian securities returned in January with a vengeance.
More informationECB research #1 ECB s growth projection, economic slack and credit supply
Investment Research General Market Conditions 22 May 2014 ECB research #1 ECB s growth projection, economic slack and credit supply We expect the ECB to lower its GDP growth projection for 2014 as growth
More informationThe story behind China s crackdown on outbound investments
October 4, 2017 The story behind China s crackdown on outbound investments Introduction China considers its foreign exchange reserves to be a vital shield against potential economic headwinds. This is
More informationQuick Hit International securities transactions: A currency story
Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 FICC Strategy January 18, 219 - (Vol. III, No. 9) Quick
More informationDOLLARS & SENSE TD Economics
DOLLARS & SENSE TD Economics U.S. YIELD AND ECONOMIC DIVERGENCE HOLD CENTER STAGE Highlights The Federal Reserve is on course to raise rates by year-end and bond yields have started to incrementally price
More informationPeter Praet: Preserving monetary accommodation in times of normalisation
Peter Praet: Preserving monetary accommodation in times of normalisation Speech by Mr Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the UBS Conference, London, 13 November
More informationCrius Energy Trust. Resuming Coverage. USGE Provides Enhanced Footprint, Diversification & Cross-Sell Potential
KWH.un (T) Stock Rating: Target: Risk Rating: Cdn$10.14 Outperform Cdn$13.00 Average Est. Total Return 35.9% Stock Data: Cash Yield 7.7% Implied Price Return 28.2% 52-w eek High-Low $11.32-$7.76 Bloomberg/Reuters:
More informationTable of Contents. Week in review. What we ll be watching... p. 5 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 6 Annex Economic tables...
June 1, 2018 Table of Contents What we ll be watching... p. 5 Calendar of upcoming releases... p. 6 Annex Economic tables... A1 Week in review CANADA: Real expanded at an annualized pace of just 1.3% in
More informationEuro area outlook for 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 January 2015 Euro area outlook for 2015 Deflation but the good kind The euro area slipped into deflation in December 2014 and we expect the inflation rate
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 03 NOVEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK. August 2017
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK August 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 MACRO-ECONOMICS AND CURRENCIES Developed and Emerging Markets A series of comments from major central banks during the month, reminded investors
More informationECON 4325 Wednesday seminar 2016 The presentation package is complete
ECON 4325 Wednesday seminar 2016 The presentation package is complete 1 2 WHAT ARE THE CURRENT STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY? Norges Bank: ECB: Fed: BoE: 0,5 % 0,00 % (0.25% and -0.4 %) 0.25-0.5 % 0,5 % 3
More informationDollarama Inc. Q4 F2015 Results. Solid results supported by sales growth, margin expansion and capital return HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin
Title: Dollarama Inc. - (T) $68.10 Price: $68.10 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: $74.00 Headline: Solid results supported by sales growth, margin expansion and (T) $68.10 Stock Rating: Outperform
More informationPreferred Shares Alex Kastanis, CFA. December 2016
Preferred Shares Alex Kastanis, CFA December 2016 Why Invest in Preferred Shares Regular Dividend Payment Revenue that is fiscally advantageous Priority over common shares (bankruptcy) Different structures
More informationKey events in developed markets next week
Economic and Financial Analysis Global Economics Article Key events in developed markets next week German's Ifo survey should provide some insight into whether the dismal third quarter was an aberration
More informationMay *EU Periphery Sovereigns include bonds from countries such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
May 2014 Rates are stuck in a holding pattern - US and UK 10-year yields have been range bound since late January, while euro-area rates have drifted lower. While technical factors may have contributed
More informationNorth American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession
North American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (1) 97-731 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com November 17, 9 U.S. Economic
More informationRising EU-US trade tensions only add to Europe s challenges
Rising EU-US trade tensions only add to Europe s challenges July 3, 2018 The EU is the latest region to be accused of unfair trade practices by the Trump administration. It is estimated that the EU has
More informationAdjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices
2 nd Quarter 2015 Adjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices Most Americans are aware that the U.S. economy and markets are more frequently and deeply affected by global developments than was
More informationFixed Income Strategy
April 2018 Fixed Income Strategy It Looks Like the 3% Target on the 10-Year Treasury Yield Will Have to Wait Richard Belley, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist After months of relative underperformance, fixed
More informationFlash Comment ECB preview: Still pressure from low inflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2014 Flash Comment ECB preview: Still pressure from low inflation Euro inflation has declined again and core inflation is at an all-time low. This
More informationGlobal FX 2 Apr 2012
Global FX 2 Apr 2012 Uncertainty reigned in the currency market over the past two weeks, with the dollar fluctuating in rather tight ranges against most other major currencies. The greenback initially
More informationECB Research ECB cutting through the lower bound Danish experiences
Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 November 2015 ECB Research ECB cutting through the lower bound Danish experiences Given the turnaround in the ECB s view on deposit rate cuts, we expect
More information2012 Economic Outlook: Overview of U.S. Economy. Presented by: Mark Evans, CFA Director of Investment Strategies
2012 Economic Outlook: Overview of U.S. Economy Presented by: Mark Evans, CFA Director of Investment Strategies mevans@viningsparks.com A Recovery of Sorts Rates have fallen even further Economy is getting
More informationSwiss Economy 2018 outlook
Economic and Financial Analysis 15 December 2017 Article 15 December 2017 Swiss Economy 2018 outlook Global Economics The Swiss National Bank will have to wait until late 2019 before the current activity
More informationSeptember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy September 2015 Stock Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated in Near-term on China Concerns & Fed Uncertainty.
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Business & Industry Political Education Committee Columbia, South Carolina
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationInterest Rates Continue to Climb
SEPTEMBER 3, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Interest Rates Continue to Climb # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff North American economic growth rebounded in the spring. ff The Bank of Canada and the
More informationReview of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005
Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2 Debt Markets: Shifting Gears? This Quarter s Highlights Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted to a slower gear in Q1 2 following a record
More informationPublic Sector Research
Fixed Income Trading Desk Research Quick Hit GoC T-bills the ultimate fiscal shock absorber PLEASE SEE END OF DOCUMENT FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES October 17, 17 - (Vol. 1, No. 53) The Government of Canada
More informationFixed Income and FX Weekly
Fixed Income and FX Weekly Softer growth and renewed sovereign debt focus 23 May, 2011 Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen Chief Strategist, FX & Fixed Income +47 23 11 62 63 brw@first.no Good morning, A stream of
More informationIt s fun to stay in the USMCA
It s fun to stay in the USMCA October 2018 After months of negotiations, Canada finally agreed to a revamped trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA for short)
More informationECB preview Dovish and slightly worried
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 August 2015 ECB preview Dovish and slightly worried Main focus on the drop in 5Y5Y inflation expectations that are again far below the ECB s 2%-target The
More informationNorges Bank Review 24 September 2015
Norges Bank Review 24 September 2015 A 25bp rate cut and an easing bias Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst klom@danskebank.dk
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 7 MAY 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ,
More informationEuro inflation research #1 Inflation to increase sharply this year
Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 March 2015 Euro inflation research #1 Inflation to increase sharply this year Euro inflation surprised on the upside in February and consequently we revise
More informationNorges Bank Review Unchanged rates and neutral bias maintained
Investment Research General Market Conditions 16 March 2017 Norges Bank Review Unchanged rates and neutral bias maintained As expected, Norges Bank (NB) this morning left the sight deposit rate unchanged
More informationDespite the Uncertainty, Monetary Tightening Is Expected to Continue
JUNE 1, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Despite the Uncertainty, Monetary Tightening Is Expected to Continue #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The latest economic data in North America is encouraging
More informationReconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance. Mickey D. Levy Blenheim Capital Management
Reconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance Mickey D. Levy Blenheim Capital Management Prepared for Shadow Open Market Committee September 20, 2013 Reconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance Mickey
More informationStay on target. Review of the February 2018 Monetary Policy Statement. 8 February The best laid plans
Stay on target Review of the February 8 Monetary Policy Statement 8 February 8 As expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged and repeated its neutral guidance for the OCR outlook. However the RBNZ s thinking
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook January 2015
Global Economic Outlook January 2015 Philippe WAECHTER Head of Economic Research My twitter account @phil_waechter or http://twitter.com/phil_waechter My blog http://philippewaechter.en.nam.natixis.com
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIA FLASH
Five Takeaways From The FOMC Minutes CONTACTS There are five broad takeaways from this batch of minutes (here) to the November 7 th 8 th meeting. First, the minutes flagged a rate hike as appropriate fairly
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
More informationforward PERSPECTIVES The Next Chapter: Lower Returns and Higher Volatility Bruce Cooper, CFA TD Asset Management Ken Miner, CFA TD Asset Management
forward PERSPECTIVES The Next Chapter: Lower Returns and Higher Volatility Bruce Cooper, CFA TD Asset Management Ken Miner, CFA TD Asset Management December 2014 The Next Chapter: Lower Returns and Higher
More informationUS Economics. State of the Union Growth, rates, and equities NORTH AMERICA. In a nutshell. Our key views on growth, policy, and rates
NORTH AMERICA In a nutshell The US expansion is poised to continue Near-term data may surprise on the upside and show an economy expanding at an underlying 2.5% pace Longer-term growth should decelerate
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMedium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2014 OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO QUANTUM FUNDS
QUANTUM FUNDS ($500 INVESTMENT) Medium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY The fund pursues the objective of long-term total returns combined with capital preservation.
More informationMacroeconomic Outlook November 2015
Macroeconomic Outlook November 2015 Philippe WAECHTER Head of Economic Research My twitter account @phil_waechter or http://twitter.com/phil_waechter My blog http://philippewaechter.en.nam.natixis.com
More informationECON 4325 Wednesday seminar 2016
ECON 4325 Wednesday seminar 2016 1 2 WHAT ARE THE CURRENT STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY? Norges Bank: ECB: Fed: BoE: 0,75 % 0,00 % (0.25% and -0.4 %) 0.25-0.5 % 0,5 % 3 WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT INFLATION TARGETS?
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationHighlights. Change from Previous Forecast
Highlights December 217 While not a blockbuster year, 217 was nonetheless encouraging on many fronts. The world s largest economy, the U.S., seemingly got back its mojo, while export powerhouses such as
More informationAnother Milestone on the Road to Policy Normalization
LEADERSHIP SERIES OCTOBER 2017 A feature article from our U.S. partners Another Milestone on the Road to Policy Normalization The twin tailwinds of strong earnings and easing financial conditions are unlikely
More informationA SLOWER FIRST QUARTER A
Title: Advocacy Investing Portfolio Strategies, Issue 66 By: Karim Pakravan, Ph.D. Copyright: Marc J. Lane Investment Management, Inc. Date: March 17, 2015 A SLOWER FIRST QUARTER A wow payrolls report
More information