May *EU Periphery Sovereigns include bonds from countries such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
|
|
- Marcus Bradley
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 May 2014 Rates are stuck in a holding pattern - US and UK 10-year yields have been range bound since late January, while euro-area rates have drifted lower. While technical factors may have contributed to the rally, the main culprit for stubbornly low rates still centers on growth. This is reflected in real yields, which imply broad scepticism about potential economic activity. Citi analysts believe - improving prospects in the developed world are sustainable, and that greater potential exists for bond yields to rise than to move lower from here. Recent releases have been relatively upbeat, economic surprise indexes have rebounded and inflation expectations are anchored around long term norms. Citi analysts retain a defensive stance on duration and recommend taking advantage of the rally to lighten exposures to zero coupon debt and rate-sensitive sectors. High quality corporate credit has outperformed - largely due to the decline in risk-free rates. Citi anlysts continue to recommend investors ratchet down in quality (or in the capital structure) to pick up yield, given strong fundamentals and low default rates. Citi analysts favour Euro denominated credit over USD, financials over non-financials and remain constructive on high yield bonds and bank loans. Sectors 12 Months View Investment Rationale Dev. Market (Core) Sovereigns EU Periphery Sovereigns* Emerging Market Sovereigns High Grade Corporates High Yield Corporates Underperform Outperform Underperform Market perform Outperform Favour short duration strategies as intermittently higher bond yields are expected in 2014; Bunds poised to outperform UST and UK Gilts as ECB policy remains accommodative Risks are ring-fenced, for now; Growth and banking concerns persist, but have marginally improved; Financial conditions to remain resilient and further spread compression likely Modest outperformance likely to continue near term; Favour short duration and lighten exposure to fragile credits; external (sov. & corp.) vs. local debt given FX volatility; Citi analysts favour 3- to 7-year maturities; Euro over USD, Financials over non-financials and prefer BBB-rated credits versus higher quality Carry (not spreads) are likely to drive future performance; Remain constructive; Value in Single-B rated issuers *EU Periphery Sovereigns include bonds from countries such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
2 Important Information Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets Inc. ( CGMI ) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management and Citigroup Alternative Investments. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment products are (i) not insured by any government agency; (ii) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (iii) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Citibank N.A., London Branch is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Our firm reference number with our UK regulators is Citibank International plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm reference number with our UK regulators is Citibank N.A., London Branch is registered as a branch in the UK at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. Registered number BR Citibank International plc has its registered office at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. Registered number Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission under the Financial Services (Jersey) Law 1998 for the conduct of investment business and under the Banking Business (Jersey) Law 1991 for the conduct of deposit taking business. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA. Citibank N.A CITI, CITI and Arc Design are registered service marks of Citigroup Inc. Calls may be monitored or recorded for training and service quality purposes
3 Developed Markets Government Bonds Rates are stuck in a holding pattern. Indeed, US and UK 10-year yields have been range bound since late January, while euro-area rates have drifted lower (at nearly 120bp, the 10-yr UST/Bund spread is historically wide). It s notable that 10-year UST rates have traded in a 25bp range for the past few months (the longest such period in at least two decades) and have been in a 50bp range since last June (Fig. 1). Yields have been sticky even though the term premium (which began normalizing in May 13) has been grinding higher since February. What gives? After all, economic activity and leading indicators have been fairly upbeat after a disappointing first quarter. Surprise indexes have rebounded from recent lows, and inflation expectations which have softened since January (especially in the Eurozone) are still anchored around long term norms. Yet, shorting the bond market has been the pain trade this year (Fig. 2). Figure 1: UST Treasury rates are stuck in a tight trading range Figure 2: Shorting the bond market has been the pain trade YTD We could blame it on the weather, or we could blame it on geopolitical risks. We could even blame the bullflattening of the US curve (despite tapering from the Fed) on pension fund demand and China purchases (i.e., given larger USD reserves due to weaker RMB). While it s possible that these have contributed to the rally, the main culprit for stubbornly low rates still centers on growth. This is reflected in real yields, which imply broad scepticism about potential activity. Indeed, the decline in forward real yields suggests that investors are second-guessing Fed projections as terminal policy rates and long-dated yield forecasts are reprised lower. Markets are even discounting a slower pace of rate hikes than the FOMC expects despite official guidance that reflects the slowest potential pace of tightening (100bp to 125bp per year) that has ever transpired in any prior hiking cycle. The dearth of long positioning suggests that weak data could easily drive rates even lower. But, if you believe (as Citi analysts do) that improving growth prospects are sustainable, then a greater potential exists for yields to rise than to move lower from here. Citi analysts retain a defensive stance on duration and recommend lightening exposures to zero coupon debt and rate-sensitive sectors, particularly in the US and UK.
4 Emerging Markets Government Bonds Emerging market returns are being fuelled by slower-than-expected growth, accommodative central bank policies (in developed markets), the strong demand for yield, and relatively attractive valuations. Since the sharp sell-off in May through September 2013, EM spreads (and yields) have declined by roughly 65bp. USD EM sovereign debt has risen by about 5.5% YTD (and by 11.5% since September). Local currency bond markets have also rebounded, rising by 4.5% this year (unhedged to USD) and by 7.5% since the selloff peaked last September. While developed market growth concerns have diminished negative headlines, Citi analysts remain concerned about the (relatively unchanged) fundamental landscape in EM. Indeed, real yields have broadly risen (along with higher policy rates) but growth has not. Inflation remains elevated, export growth is weak, and credit standards are tightening (e.g., India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey). While low implied volatility may support further gains near term, Fed tapering and improving US data should pressure government yields higher. Typically, rising US rates correlate with a reduced appetite for EM debt. While Citi analysts do not anticipate another severe market reaction, higher Treasury yields are likely to be a principal headwind to performance. They recommend that investors retain a short duration bias in external EM markets, to favour select corporate issuers over sovereign debt (particularly in Latin America), and to avoid issuers among the more fragile (i.e., deficit-laden) EM nations. Citi analysts maintain a cautious view on local EM markets debt. In their view, growth prospects are likely to weaken further and current account deficits are likely to persist, fuelling elevated currency volatility. Citi analysts continue to prefer Mexico local currency (and external) debt, which has risen 6.1%, YTD. Mexico s economy is likely to benefit from improving US manufacturing activity, while central bank policies promote a stable MXN. Prospects of QE in the Eurozone may support local markets in high quality Eastern European countries, such as Czech Republic and Poland. Interest rates in these markets have demonstrated a high correlation to German Bunds and increased foreign inflows may lead to FX appreciation (Fig. 3). Figure 3: High quality East European rates are tracking Bunds Source: Bloomberg.
5 Investment Grade Corporate Bonds High grade corporate debt has benefitted from strong demand as core government rates remain range-bound. For example, US bond inflows have eclipsed $20 billion this year (after $12 billion of outflows in 2013). As a result, USD corporates have risen 4.2% year-to-date, outperforming both GBP and EUR securities (3.9% and 3.2%, respectively). These outsized returns have primarily been driven by the decline in interest rates, not spread compression. Indeed, when returns are adjusted for the decline in UST and German Bund yields, corporate bonds post only modest gains of 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively (Fig. 11). Although fundamentals remain solid, the expected drag from rising government rates is Citi analysts principal concern. While they expect spreads to be stable, total return investors should consider taking profits or shortening duration in the 3- to 7-year maturity range. They favour euro-denominated credits over USD and GBP, financials over nonfinancials, and BBB-rated credits versus higher quality names. Figure 4: HG corp. returns have been fuelled by lower rates ) are expected t High Yield Corporate Bonds HY markets enjoyed another month of positive performance despite weaker technicals. European and US markets gained roughly 1.0% and 0.6% in April, boosting YTD total returns to 4.2% and 3.7%, respectively. Spreads remain near post-crisis tights, and yields are at (or near) historic lows. Market demand continues to be bolstered by relatively strong fundamentals, low default rates, subdued volatility, central bank liquidity, and the eternal quest for yield. Prevailing conditions are poised to persist despite stretched valuations. That said, further gains in HY will be more dependent on coupon since substantial spread compression is unlikely, in Citi analyst s view. Citi analysts favour Europe over US credits, Single-B rated issuers, and HY unsecured debt to outperform bank loans in the near term. In bank loans, 95 straight weeks of fund inflows finally ended last month, followed by four weeks of outflows. That said, the roughly $1 billion of reported outflows comprises a mere 1.0% of the total assets invested in the loan market since January 2013 ($73+ billion). While outflows could persist in the near term, Citi analysts do not expect to see a substantial market reversal similar to Indeed, even as rates continue to fall this month, loan prices have risen. Citi analysts expect attractive valuations to further bolster demand from CLO managers, helping to stabilize flows, and for duration-sensitive investors to return as rate fears re-emerge.
November *EU Periphery Sovereigns include bonds from countries such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
November 2013 Rate pressures have softened -along with growth expectations, triggering gains across fixed income markets. Core government yields have retraced a substantial amount of the recent sharp rise
More informationNovember *EU Periphery Sovereigns include government bonds from EU nations that require large subsidies to keep their economies stable.
November 2011 European debt concerns and slowing growth - have fuelled the rally in core government bonds. Risk aversion has stimulated safe haven demand, while disappointing economic data has forced inflation
More informationMarket Outlook March 2015 Euro equities: Beyond political risks. By Citi EMEA Consumer Bank
Market Outlook March 2015 Euro equities: Beyond political risks By Citi EMEA Consumer Bank Equities Markets Feature On 22 January 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its long-awaited large
More informationSectors 12 Months View Investment Rationale
March 2013 Some investors rushed to hedge bond portfolios - as interest rates rose at the start of the year. In recent weeks, however, yields declined across the major markets, reminding investors that
More informationMarket Outlook November 2014 More Economic Divergences, More Volatility
2 Market Outlook November 2014 More Economic Divergences, More Volatility Equities Markets Feature As global markets hover between price peaks and volatility lows, global investors are dealing with a cacophony
More informationFX Market Headlines INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE. June 26 h, 2017.
June 26 h, 2017 FX Market Headlines United States United Kingdom Eurozone Australia & NZ INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Important Disclosure
More informationMarket Outlook. July 2015
Market Outlook July 2015 Greece Defaults; Contagion Risks Limited Greek government failed to make the EUR 1.6bn IMF debt payment due on 30 June and becomes the first nation to default on IMF since Mugabe's
More informationMarket Outlook. December 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Market Outlook December 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE What does policy divergence mean for markets? With the recent release of
More informationFrench Presidential Race Heats Up
1 MARCH 2017 French Presidential Race Heats Up By Florence Tan, Tae Hyon Ahn, Celestee Tan The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. If no candidate wins a
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationJune 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating
June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global
More informationMarket Performance WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS. Is USD Strength Weighing Down EM Asia Stocks? Could Rising Italian Pressures Spillover to Europe?
1 OCTOBER 2018 Is USD Strength Weighing Down EM Asia Stocks? Since mid-april, the USD gained nearly 20% against emerging market (EM) Asia currencies and up 10% gains against G10 currencies. USD strength
More informationInvestment Costs and Charges Illustration Citi International Personal Bank. Effective 11 July 2018
Investment Costs and Charges Illustration Citi International Personal Bank Effective 11 July 2018 This Investment Costs and Charges Illustration lists the indicative fees and charges for the most common
More informationMerkel Set for Fourth Term but Support Weakens
25 SEPTEMBER 2017 Merkel Set for Fourth Term but Support Weakens Angela Merkel is set for a fourth term as German chancellor although there was a sharp fall in support for her Christian Democrat-led alliance.
More informationCorporate bonds resurgent in March
Corporate bonds resurgent in March Markit iboxx monthly report March 216 After a volatile start to the year, fixed income returns bounced back in spectacular fashion with corporate and emerging market
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationMarket Performance WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS. Yields Threat vs. Earnings Support. PBOC s Monetary Policy Easing a Positive for Equities
30 APRIL 2018 Yields Threat vs. Earnings Support The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note closed at 3.024% on Wednesday, above the key psychological level of 3% for the first time since January 2014,
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationHigh yield and emerging market bonds continue rally
Markit iboxx monthly report April 216 High yield and emerging market bonds continue rally April saw corporate and emerging market bond returns continue to gain amid a calmer economic backdrop. Calmer markets
More informationOpportunities amid market volatility. Citibank Wealth Management Investment Pulse
02 2014 Opportunities amid market volatility In January, market volatility increased substantially as investors are wary that liquidity outflow from emerging markets may pose a threat on global growth.
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.
More informationHSBC Fund Update. HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond. April Market overview. Portfolio strategy
HSBC Fund Update April 2016 HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond Market overview The rally in Emerging Market (EM) assets continued in March given the improvement in global risk sentiment on the back
More informationMarket Outlook. February 2015
Market Outlook February 2015 China equities: Prefer H over A-shares CSI300/ MXCN corrected 8%/ 5% on Jan 19 given liquidity concerns following China Securities Regulatory Commission s (CSRC) three-month
More informationLess Savings to Fund US Tax Cuts
31 JULY 2017 Less Savings to Fund US Tax Cuts By Florence Tan, Celestee Tan Failure to pass the healthcare bill and exclusion of the Border Tax Adjustment in the proposed tax reform imply that there is
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMarket Outlook. November 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Market Outlook November 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Markets getting support from dovish central banks ECB President Mario Draghi
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMarket Outlook December 2015
Market Outlook December 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE What does policy divergence mean for markets? With the recent release of
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2015 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Stocks likely to Post Solid Gains in 2015 Fuelled by Fresh QE Stimulus in Eurozone
More informationNAVIGATING A MATURING BULL MARKET II
NAVIGATING A MATURING BULL MARKET II NAVIGATING A MATURING BULL MARKET 1 12 %YY 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global AE EM NAVIGATING A MATURING BULL MARKET 2 NAVIGATING A MATURING
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationiboxx July bond monitor: Corporate bonds bounce back
iboxx July bond monitor: Corporate bonds bounce back After seeing spreads widen over June, corporate bonds bounced back over July as investors regained their appetite for risk assets. Euro, dollar and
More informationMARKET OUTLOOK. December What does policy divergence mean for markets? 02 Equity Markets and Commodities 03 Bond Markets 04 Currency
Please note and carefully read the English version only MARKET OUTLOOK 01 What does policy divergence mean for markets? 02 Equity Markets and Commodities 03 Bond Markets 04 Currency December 2015 What
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationFOR 2018 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING. PROVIDED TO DESIGNATED MEMBERS OF THE PRESS ONLY, NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.
2018 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME Mark Vaselkiv Portfolio Manager, CIO, Fixed Income November 14, 2017 FOR 2018 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING. PROVIDED TO DESIGNATED
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2017 Stock Markets likely to Grind Higher as Expectations of Strong Earnings Growth & Improving Global GDP
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationResearch Briefing Global
Research Briefing Global Top ten calls for 2017 Trumponomics leads the way Economist Adam Slater Lead Economist +44(0)1865268934 Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook February 2015 Stocks to Fully Rebound from Late 2014/Early 2015 Sell-off with ECB Launching Aggressive QE, Rate Cuts by Several
More informationMixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls
24 FEBRUARY 2017 Mixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls USD: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin - Says there are certain issues with USD strength; adds Trump is aiming to pass tax reform by August but
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook April 2014 Stocks to Rebound & Post Further Gains as Global Growth Strengthens after Q1 Soft Patch, Earnings Rebound, Low Interest
More informationMarket Outlook. December 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Market Outlook December 2015 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE What does policy divergence mean for markets? With the recent release of
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationMonthly Outlook. June Summary
Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the
More informationMonthly Commentary Emerging Markets Debt
HSBC Global Asset Management November 2010 Monthly Commentary Emerging Markets Debt Emerging Markets Debt Core Supplemental information and characteristics for periods ending November 30, 2010 Month Year-to-date
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly October 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Uncertainty about US monetary
More informationASSET ALLOCATION FLASH
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 25 June 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION FLASH BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) MID-YEAR REVERSALS Asset allocation overview: Christophe MOULIN Head of Multi Asset,
More informationING Fixed Income Perspectives - November 2013
ING Fixed Income Perspectives - November 2013 November 29, 2013 by Christine Hurtsellers and Matt Toms of ING Investement Management ING U.S. Investment Management Fixed Income Perspectives November 27,
More informationHSBC Global Investment Funds - Global Short Duration Bond
HSBC Global Investment s - Global Short Duration Bond SG Share Class 31/05/2018 Objective and Strategy Investment Objective The aims to provide long-term total return (meaning capital growth and income)
More informationFee Schedule. Effective 13 January 2018
Fee Schedule Effective 13 January 2018 This Fee Schedule lists the indicative charges for the most common transactions and services available from Citi International Personal Bank. These indicative charges
More informationMarket Performance WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS. Political Risks Take Center Stage. Elevated Uncertainties for Trump-Abe Meeting
16 APRIL 2018 Political Risks Take Center Stage New headlines roiled markets with S&P down 0.29% and Asia down 0.24% Friday, only a day after Chinese and US officials calmed fears of an impending trade
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationEmerging markets: Issuance frenzy and complacency about growing risks
By Naman Agarwal November 3, 2017 Low interest rates have propelled a search for yield and rotation into higher-yielding emerging market (EM) debt, resulting in record inflows into the asset class. As
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK. August 2017
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK August 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 MACRO-ECONOMICS AND CURRENCIES Developed and Emerging Markets A series of comments from major central banks during the month, reminded investors
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationSeptember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy September 2015 Stock Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated in Near-term on China Concerns & Fed Uncertainty.
More informationUBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions
Thursday, February 5 2015 UBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions Madrid Milan London Frankfurt Zurich Chief Investment Office WM The Diverging World CIO Year Ahead 2015 Bill O'Neill Head of Investment
More informationFinancial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks John Praveen
More informationAugust iboxx bond monitor: UK bonds continue surge
Markit iboxx monthly report August 2016 August iboxx bond monitor: UK bonds continue surge Bonds provided relatively flat returns last month as the possibility of a US rate rise saw investors continue
More informationThe case for lower rated corporate bonds
The case for lower rated corporate bonds Marcus Pakenham Fixed income product specialist December 3 Introduction Where should fixed income investors be positioned over the medium term? We expect that government
More informationEmerging market debt outlook
Investment Insights Emerging market debt outlook January 2012 2011 in review 2011 was a year in which investors focused on the economic fundamentals underlying their investments. Financial markets were
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns
For professional investors and advisers only. Seven-year asset class forecast returns 2017 Update Seven-year asset class forecast returns 2017 update Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast largely
More informationM&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing
More informationthe drive you demand ASSET ALLOCATION June 2017 Global Investment Committee
the drive you demand ASSET ALLOCATION June 217 Global Investment Committee GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION Rising earnings argue for remaining overweight equities Global economy / Asset allocation Sustained
More information2019 Annual Outlook Volatility & Opportunities in the Late Stage Bull Market
2019 Annual Outlook Volatility & Opportunities in the Late Stage Bull Market Asia Pacific Wealth Management December 2018 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE.
More informationQuarterly Update on Valuation Metrics in Emerging Debt
Quarterly Update on Valuation Metrics in Emerging Debt September 2018 Carl Ross and Victoria Courmes The punch line: Due to the 26-bp spread tightening in the third quarter (to 362 bps), USD external debt
More informationASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS)
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 6 September 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) REGIONAL DIFFERENCES, DIVERGENT RETURNS Asset allocation overview: Christophe
More informationFIXED INCOME STRATEGY
12 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY FIXED INCOME STRATEGY GLOBAL FIXED INCOME FIXED INCOME DEVELOPED DM Government DM Credit EMERGING EM Government -- - N + ++ Our overall fixed income strategy is to stay
More informationInvestmentPerspectives August 2016
Investment Stewardship Guidance InvestmentPerspectives August 2016 Strategy Update: Emerging Markets Debt BEN MOHR, CFA, SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST, FIXED INCOME Given the heightened volatility in financial
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationThe Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market
Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13 May 14 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Basis Points Basis Points PERSPECTIVES The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market May 2014
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook December 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Fed Taper Delay, ECB Rate Cut & Further Easing Likely, Improving
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationDistribution Number 9
Distribution Number 9 Legal & General Emerging Markets Government Bond (Local Currency) Index Fund Annual Manager s Short Report for the year ended 20 April 2018 Investment Objective and Policy The objective
More informationMarket Performance MONTHLY MARKET OUTLOOK. Markets Moving into Overshoot Mode. China: Reshaping Global Capital Flows (Part 2 of 5)
4 SEPTEMBER 2017 Markets Moving into Overshoot Mode According to Citi Credit/Equity Clock framework, financial markets are moving into phase 3, a period where reasonable equity returns come with higher
More informationKDP ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.
ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. High Yield Bond and Senior Secured Bank Loan Outlook June 2017 Asset Management, Inc. 24 Elm Street Montpelier, Vermont 802.223.0440 HighYield@kdpam.com The Case for High Yield Bonds
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMarket Outlook. April 2016 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Market Outlook April 2016 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE ECB to the rescue On 10 March 2016, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the
More informationEM Asia - Still Room to Grow
1 MARCH 2018 EM Asia - Still Room to Grow Despite recent financial market volatility, Goldilocks conditions of moderate economic growth and low inflation still prevail for most trade/open economies, with
More informationFirst Quarter 2017 Investment Review. Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL (312)
First Quarter 2017 Investment Review Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL 60661 (312) 474-0900 MARKET SUMMARY - 1Q17 CAPITAL MARKETS Index MARKET SNAPSHOT MARCH 31, 2017 Qtr One Year Three
More informationM&G Global Macro Bond Fund Fourth quarter 2017
Quarterly Review M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Fourth quarter 2017 Fund manager Jim Leaviss FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY Overview Central banks in the US and UK raised interest rates in the final quarter
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy & Outlook For 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy & Outlook For 2009 December 17, 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact:
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationLearning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss
Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018
More informationMarket Outlook. March 2016 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Market Outlook March 2016 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Negative BoJ interest rate and its implications? In a surprise move, the BoJ
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017
MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017 Market Environment: Economy Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction. Expectations for lower taxes, reduced regulation, and other pro-growth reforms
More informationThe Aerial View Fixed Income & Markets Update
The Aerial View Fixed Income & Markets Update November Asset Class Performance While stocks rallied last month, fixed income endured mixed fortunes Growing expectations of a more aggressive Fed in 2018
More informationASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS)
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 2 May 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) THE RETURN OF THE US INFLATION THREAT Asset allocation overview: Christophe MOULIN
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
October - November 2012 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* Global Investment Strategy: Maintain Equity Overweight as Q3 Stock Market Rally
More informationGlobal growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.
Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion
More information