Savaria Corporation. Q2/17 Results. Span contribution begins; guidance revised (unsurprisingly) upwards HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin

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Jerome Franklin
5 years ago
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SIS (T) $15.06 Stock Rating: Outperform Target: $17.00 Risk Rating: Above Average Est. Total Return 14.6% Stock Data: 52-w eek High-Low $17.55 - $7.74 Bloomberg/Reuters SIS CN / SIS.

4 $45.3 EBITDA Margin 15.3% 17.1% 16.2% 17.1% EPS (fd) $0.28 $0.36 $0.42 $0.67 P/E 54.6x 42.1x 36.0x 22.6x EV/EBITDA 41.7x 28.6x 21.3x 14.

1 SIS (T) $15.06 Stock Rating: Outperform Target: $17.00 Risk Rating: Above Average Est. Total Return 14.6% Stock Data: 52-w eek High-Low $ $7.74 Bloomberg/Reuters SIS CN / SIS.TO Shares Outstanding (basic) (mln) 41.2 Market Capitalization (mln) $620.1 (Year-End Dec. 31) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Revenues (mln) $95.3 $119.7 $186.9 $265.0 Adj. EBITDA (mln) $14.6 $20.5 $30.4 $45.3 EBITDA Margin 15.3% 17.1% 16.2% 17.1% EPS (fd) $0.28 $0.36 $0.42 $0.67 P/E 54.6x 42.1x 36.0x 22.6x EV/EBITDA 41.7x 28.6x 21.3x 14.8x Financial Data: As at June 30, 2017 (Q2/17) Net Debt (Net Cash) (mln) $29.2 Net Debt / EBITDA 1.4x Dividend per share $0.26 Dividend yield 1.7% August 11, 2017 Savaria Corporation Q2/17 Results The NBF Daily Bulletin Industrial Products Span contribution begins; guidance revised (unsurprisingly) upwards HIGHLIGHTS Span in the mix, spanner in our estimates Revenue of $39.1 million was up 30.1% y/y and met consensus estimates of $39.3 million. Adj. EBITDA of $6.5 million was shy of our $7.4 million forecast (Street: $7.2 million), but jumped 28.8% y/y. We calculate organic growth of 7% for Accessibility and a disappointing flat figure for Adapted Vehicles (should return to normal in Q3 with the Quebec Government subsidy now back in place). Q2/17 is the first quarter that includes the transformational Span acquisition (completed June 16) which will account for SIS Medical Products and Surfaces sales, a new market for Savaria. Guidance raised, with history of over delivering 2017 revenue guidance was raised again to $187 million from the March increase to $143 million (originally $139 million; up 56% y/y). EBITDA guidance was bolstered to $ million (+40-49% y/y) to reflect the acquisition of Premier Lifts and Span. This is in line with our expectations for 2017 (see Figure 4). We remind investors of SIS strong recent track record of increasing/beating guidance (see Figure 2). Span acquisition complete, more M&A on the horizon Savaria ended Q2 with cash and unused credit totalling $81.5 million, while we also note that SIS is now generating a free cash flow run rate of ~$25 million. We believe management is still on the hunt for targets. Industry Rating: Overweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) Company Profile: Savaria is a North American leader in personal mobility products and does business in two segments: Accessibility (stairlifts, elevators, wheelchair lifts, etc.) and Adapted Vehicles (van conversions). Maintain $17.00 target and Outperform rating Our target implies 16x 2018e EV/EBITDA, justified in our view given SIS explosive track record, excellent outlook for profitable growth and strong financial position. Stock Performance Leon Aghazarian, M.Sc. - (514) leon.aghazarian@nbc.ca Associates: Zachary Evershed, CFA - (514) Zachary.evershed@nbc.ca Karim Meneeim - (514) karim.meneeim@nbc.ca Source:

2 Page 2 Q2/17 Highlights (Cdn$, mln) Q2/17 NBF Est. Δ% Q2/16 Δ% y/y Accessibility $28.7 $ % $ % Adapted Vehicles $7.0 $ % $ % Span-America $3.4 $3.2 Total Revenue $39.1 $ % $ % Adj. EBITDA $6.5 $ % $ % Margin 16.7% 19.5% 16.9% EPS (fd) $0.07 $ % $ % FIGURE 1: Q2/17 RESULTS Unsurprisingly, the first quarter with Span s contribution was slightly noisy as is the case when a transformational acquisition is made. We note that the underlying business reported solid y/y results and point specifically to 16.5% y/y revenue growth in Accessibility of which 7% was organic growth and 29.6% in Adapted vehicles. Gross margin increased to 33.5% from 32.6% y/y (NBF: 35.5%), while Q2/17 adjusted EBITDA margin had a very slight 20 bps decrease y/y to 16.7% due to the lower margin nature of Span. While the results fell slightly short of our estimates in this quarter, we are encouraged by management s guidance increase guidance hiked and recent history points to potential upside As shown below, Savaria raised its 2016 guidance three times during the year before eventually slightly exceeding it. The company was also above guidance in Given the recent closing of Span, we are not surprised by the hike in the 2017 guidance. In fact, our estimates prior to the Q2 results were exactly in line with today s revised guidance Initial 2016 Three Guidance Increases 2016 Guidance Actual Dec-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Actual Revenue ($mln) $92.0 $95.3 $103 $107 $118 $119 $119.7 EBITDA ($mln) $ $14.6 $ $ $ $ $20.5 FIGURE 2: SAVARIA'S GUIDANCE TRACK RECORD Initial Guidance Increase Increase Nov-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Δ (vs. 2016) Revenue ($mln) $139 $143 $187 56% EBITDA ($mln) $25-26 $ $ % FIGURE 3: 2017 GUIDANCE Well capitalized and still pursuing M&A At the end of Q2/17, Savaria s cash position stood at $6.8 million with pro-forma debt/ebitda at <1x. The company also has access to $74.7 million in unused credit. We view Savaria s solid financial position as supportive of future growth initiatives.

3 Page 3 Following the tuck-in Premier Lift and transformational Span acquisitions, management continues to pursue North American M&A opportunities in existing or complementary product categories. In our view, it has the financial flexibility for larger transactions. Assuming leverage of ~2x EBITDA, no recourse to equity and acquisition multiples of 8-10x EBITDA, we estimate potential incremental EBITDA of $7-10 million. This would represent a 15-20% upside to the current EBITDA run rate. Minor changes to estimates 2017E 2018E (Cdn$, mln) New Old New Old Revenue $186.9 $187.2 $265.0 $274.0 Adj. EBITDA $30.4 $30.5 $45.3 $46.6 Margin 16.2% 16.3% 17.1% 17.0% EPS (fd) $0.42 $0.49 $0.67 $0.65 Source: NBF FIGURE 4: REVISED ESTIMATES FIGURE 5: SAVARIA - SUMMARY FORECAST (Cdn$, mln) Q1/17 Q2/17E Q3/17E Q4/17E 2017E 2018E Accessibility $62.2 $69.6 $82.6 $96.2 $23.9 $28.7 $28.2 $28.5 $109.4 $149.7 Span-America $3.4 $22.1 $20.3 $45.8 $80.4 Adapted Vehicles $13.5 $13.3 $12.6 $23.5 $7.2 $7.0 $9.9 $7.6 $31.8 $34.9 Total Revenue $75.7 $82.9 $95.3 $119.7 $31.1 $39.1 $60.2 $56.4 $186.9 $265.0 EBITDA $9.5 $11.2 $14.6 $19.7 $5.1 $4.9 $7.8 $9.3 $27.3 $45.3 Margin 12.6% 13.5% 15.3% 16.5% 16.4% 12.6% 13.0% 16.5% 14.6% 17.1% Adj. EBITDA $9.5 $11.3 $14.6 $20.5 $5.1 $6.5 $9.3 $9.3 $30.4 $45.3 Margin 12.6% 13.6% 15.3% 17.1% 16.4% 16.7% 15.5% 16.5% 16.2% 17.1% EPS (fd) $0.23 $0.23 $0.28 $0.36 $0.09 $0.07 $0.12 $0.14 $0.42 $0.67

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