Q4 Preview & Transfer of Coverage: Growth Potential and Attractive Valuation Supports Strong Buy

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1 23-Apr May-14 4-Jun Jun Jul-14 6-Aug Aug Sep-14 8-Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb-15 4-Mar Mar Apr-15 Daily Volume ('000) Share Price RESEARCH UPDATE LONESTAR WEST INC. (LSI-V) April 24, 2015 Q4 Preview & Transfer of Coverage: Growth Potential and Attractive Valuation Supports Strong Buy EVENT Prior to the release of Q4 financial and operating results, Industrial Alliance Securities has transferred coverage of Lonestar West from Steve Li to Elias Foscolos. The Company will be releasing its Q4 financial results on April 27, HIGHLIGHTS YoY revenue growth is anticipated. For Q4/14, revenue is expected to be $11M, representing 17% YoY growth. We forecast full year revenue for fiscal 2014 of $45M, a YoY increase of 38% from the recorded $33M in fiscal This growth is largely supported by the Company s organic growth plans which are reflected in the doubling of the Company s fleet throughout fiscal Q4 EBITDA increase is expected. Our EBITDA estimate for Q4 of $1.1M represents a 66% YoY increase. This increase is the result of both higher revenue and improved margins. For fiscal 2014, we forecast EBITDA of $6.4M representing a 100% YoY increase which is in line with our growth expectations for the Company. Q4/14 EBITDA margin of 10% is anticipated which compares favourably with the 7% recorded in Q4/13. Break-even net earnings expected. Q4/14 net earnings and EPS are expected to be ($0.2M) and $0.00/sh, respectively. Year-end net earnings are forecasted at $1.4M, a 174% YoY increase from $0.5M in Growth is projected into LSI s revenue growth expected to be primarily driven by higher utilization rates and the expansion into new market segments and geographic locations. EBITDA growth should accelerate due to the increase in revenue and improved margins. BOTTOM LINE We expect Lonestar to continue its growth trajectory in 2015 despite the headwinds in the oil and gas sector. In February, the Company completed an acquisition of certain assets from Firehawk Services Ltd., increasing the Company s fleet count by 6 trucks. In addition to that acquisition, we believe LSI s growth for the remainder of 2015 will be primarily driven by higher utilization rates. Badger Daylighting s (BAD-T NR) latest results re-affirm our thesis that LSI will be able to grow by expanding into additional market segments and geographic locations. On an EV/truck multiple valuation basis, Lonestar s current multiple is $580,000 while Badger s multiple is $1,130,000. Furthermore, LSI s downside is reduced since it is trading at the approximate replacement cost of its trucking fleet. VALUATION Based on a blended valuation of $1,000,000 EV/truck NTM, 2.0x EV/sales NTM and 9.0x EV/EBITDA NTM, we derive a 12-month target price of $3.75. Our $3.75 target translates into a potential one-year return of 74% and supports our STRONG BUY recommendation. Rating: 12-Month Target: Current price: Target return (incl. div.): Dividend / yield: Shares outstanding (M,fd): Market capitalization (M): Enterprise Value (M): 52-week range: Fiscal Year end: Average weekly volume ( 000): Currency (unless otherwise specified): Financial Summary 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Fleet Count Revenue ($M) YoY Revenue growth 24.2% 40.5% 38.1% 12.8% EBITDA ($M) EBITDA margin (%) 22.0% 9.8% 14.2% 22.3% EPS (f.d.) $0.10 $0.02 $0.05 $0.15 CFO ($M) CAPEX ($M) Free cash flow ($M) (5.3) (9.1) (17.9) (1.6) FCF per share ($) (0.31) (0.43) (0.61) (0.05) EV/Sales 3.3x 2.4x 1.7x 1.5x EV/EBITDA 15.2x 24.3x 12.1x 6.8x EV/Truck 1,934.9x 1,138.2x 581.9x 526.5x P/E (f.d.) 20.6x 92.5x 46.5x 14.7x Source: Company reports and Industrial Alliance Securities STRONG BUY $3.75 $ % N/A $ $3.99 Dec CAD $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Company Profile Lonestar West Inc. ( Lonestar or the Company ) provides HVAC services to the oil & gas, construction and utilities industries. Lonestar operates throughout Western Canada, Ontario, and in certain regions of the U.S., including California, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. ANALYST: ELIAS FOSCOLOS SECTOR: ENERGY SERVICES efoscolos@iagto.ca (403)

2 FLEET COUNT & RECENT ACQUISITION In Q1/15, Lonestar acquired certain assets from Firehawk Energy Services Ltd. (Ft. McMurray) and another independent lease operator. The transaction included the purchase of six hydrovac units; five from Firehawk for a price of $2.7M ($2.5M cash & $250K stock) and one unit from another lease operator for $0.4M (cash). As of the acquisition date, Lonestar s total fleet totaled 142 units. Given the downward pressure in the oil and gas sector, Lonestar s ability to redeploy the acquired trucks should permit the Company to capitalize and diversify into other market segments. These growth segments may include revenue from construction projects, municipalities, and utility companies. We believe that the historical revenue generated from the acquired assets will be maintained into 2015, increasing Lonestar s overall revenue. As LSI enters these new markets, we expect that the seasonal variation caused by reduced drilling activity in the energy sector will decline. We view the acquisition as a good strategic fit for Lonestar. The Company s size and access to less expensive financing provides strong financial incentives to end the lease operator model and fold the existing assets into the corporate ownership model. We believe the combination of a stronger US dollar, lower fuel costs and the acquisition of the remaining lease operators, will enhance LSI s EBITDA and EBITDA margin moving forward. Over the past three years, through a mix of organic growth and strategic acquisitions, Lonestar has managed to increase its fleet count significantly. Projecting forward, the Company s ability to re-deploy its trucking fleet into different market segments should continue to support robust growth and reduce seasonal revenue variations on quarterly revenue. Exhibit 1 below, illustrates the strong correlation between revenue growth and the growth in the number of trucks. The seasonal decline the Company experiences in Q2 is a direct result of decreased drilling activity caused by spring break-up which idles many drilling rigs. Moving forward, the Company s exposure to the oil sector is expected to diminish as a reduced capital spending by energy companies in conjunction with revenue increases from new markets reduces LSI s dependence on the energy sector. Exhibit 1: Fleet Count vs. Quarterly Revenue Source: Company Documents, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. 2 of 6 ELIAS FOSCOLOS

3 GROWTH DRIVERS Geographic & Market Segment Expansion An important source of growth for Lonestar will be the successful penetration into new geographic markets (more locations in the US) in addition to deploying trucks into new market segments outside the oil and gas sector. This diversification should provide ample growth opportunities as the LSI s scale and operating experience provide it with a significant competitive advantage over other smaller competitors. Exhibit 2 below highlights the opportunities for geographic expansion across North America. The Company s current strategy includes geographical expansion into additional provinces and states. Exhibit 2: Lonestar s Current Canadian and US Locations Source: Company Documents Build Rate & Utilization Rate The growth of the Company s trucking fleet will be an important factor in growing future revenue. Given the softness in the oil and gas sector, we anticipate the growth in revenue during fiscal 2015 to be driven primarily by increasing utilization rates of its current trucking fleet as opposed to adding additional trucks into the fleet. This should be reflected in higher future EBITDA margins. In Q1/15, we expect the Company to take delivery of a number of trucks which the Company had previously committed to purchase resulting in an increase its fleet. We anticipate the Company will halt capital investment beyond Q1/15 resulting in no additional increase in its fleet until the current fleet s utilization increases. 3 of 6 ELIAS FOSCOLOS

4 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT LSI operates in a competitive environment dominated by Badger Daylighting (BAD-T NR). Beyond LSI and BAD, the market is largely fragmented and dominated by small private operators working in their respective local markets. Badger services the utility, transportation, industrial, and engineering and construction and energy industries in both Canada and the United States. Like Lonestar, Badger has significant exposure to the energy market segment. Last month, Badger released its Q4 financial results and disclosed 15% revenue growth YoY. The Company s operations in the US drove its revenue growth while its Canadian operations remained flat. Badger s soft Canadian results were a direct result of weakness in the northern Canadian market and a slowdown in a major construction project in eastern Canada. Exhibit 3 below highlights LSI s trading metrics compared to Badger. Exhibit 3: Badger Compared to Lonestar Company Name No. of Trucks RevPer Truck - Latest TEV/Rev LTM Source: Capital IQ, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., LSI Rev, 1yr and 3 yr rev growth rates include IAS Q4E values. VALUATION AND ESTIMATES NTM TEV/Fwd. TEV/EBITDA Revenue (CIQ) LTM NTM TEV/Fwd. EBITDA (CIQ) On an EV/truck basis, Badger trades at almost double the valuation of Lonestar. However our analysis indicates that although Lonestar s HVAC truck are more expensive to build, they generate more revenue per truck. This additional valuation mismatch highlights the significant upside potential in Lonestar s current share price. We valued Lonestar using a blend of $1,000,000 EV/truck NTM, 2.0x EV/sales NTM, and 9x EV/EBITDA NTM. Based on this valuation approach, we derived a 12-month target price of $3.75. This translates to an upside potential return of 74%, justifying our Strong Buy recommendation. Exhibit 4: Lonestar West Quarterly Financial Highlights and Projections Source: Company Documents, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. LTM LTM Gross EBITDA Margin % (Excl. SBC) LTM EBITDA Margin % Revenue 1 Yr Growth % Revenue 3Yr CAGR Badger Daylighting Ltd , x 2.5x 9.6x 9.2x % 28% 30% 30% (TSX:BAD) LoneStar West Inc (TSXV:LSI)* , x x 6.9x 6 22% 13% 38% 44% Q1/13A Q2/13A Q3/13A Q4/13A Q1/14A Q2/14A Q3/14A Q4/14E Q1/15A Q2/15A Q3/15A Q4/15E 31-Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec-15 Fleet Count Total Revenue EBITDA Net Income EPS $0.05 -$0.02 $0.01 $0.00 $0.04 -$0.01 $0.03 $0.00 $0.05 $0.03 $0.05 $0.02 EBITDA margin 17.7% 1.6% 10.8% 6.9% 18.7% 8.7% 18.2% 9.7% 26.7% 19.5% 27.4% 16.1% Net margin 8.7% -7.2% 1.1% -3.0% 7.2% -1.4% 5.9% -2.1% 10.4% 6.1% 10.7% 3.7% Current Assets Total Assets ST-Debt LT-Debt Shareholder's Equity CFO CAPEX CFI CFF of 6 ELIAS FOSCOLOS

5 Investment Recommendation Rating System Top Pick: Represents the analyst s best idea in the sector, with the most favourable risk-return ratio over the next 12 months. Strong Buy: Expected to provide a substantial return over the next 12 months, with a lower level of risk than comparable investments. Buy: Expected to provide a reasonably positive return over the next 12 months. Speculative Buy: Expected to provide a positive return over the next 12 months, but with a high level of risk, or based on a future uncertain event. Hold: Expected to remain in a trading range near the current share price for the next 12 months. Sell: Expected to deliver a negative return over the next 12 months. Under Review: Currently available information is inadequate to provide an investment rating. Tender: Investors should tender their shares to the current offer. Company related disclosures: Issuer Company Ticker Applicable Disclosures Lonestar West Inc. LSI-V 1, 3, 7 See legend of Disclosures on next page. General Disclosures Please note that Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. ( IA Securities ) merged with MGI Securities Inc. on April 1, 2014 and continued their operations as Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. As a result, the enclosed disclosures may relate to either Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. or to MGI Securities Inc. for the period prior to April 1, All appropriate disclosure will be included until no longer needed. The information and opinions contained in this report were prepared by IA Securities. IA Securities is controlled by Industrial Alliance Insurance & Financial Services Inc. ( Industrial ). Industrial is a TSX Exchange listed company (IAG-T) and as such, IA Securities is an affiliate of Industrial. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of IA Securities as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. IA Securities endeavours to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources that we believe to be reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, IA Securities makes no representations or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. Information may be available to IA Securities that is not reflected in this report. This report is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The reader should not rely solely on this report in evaluating whether or not to buy or sell securities of the subject company. Definitions Research Analyst means any partner, director, officer, employee or agent of IA Securities who is held out to the public as a research analyst or whose responsibilities to IA Securities include the preparation of any written report for distribution to clients or prospective clients of IA Securities which includes a recommendation with respect to a security. "Research Report" means any written or electronic communication that IA Securities has distributed or will distribute to its clients or the general public, which contains an analyst's recommendation concerning the purchase, sale or holding of a security (but shall exclude all government debt and government guaranteed debt). Conflicts of Interest The research analyst and or associates who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of IA Securities, which may include the profitability of investment banking and related services. In the normal course of its business, IA Securities may provide financial advisory services for the issuers mentioned in this report. IA Securities may buy from or sell to customers the securities of issuers mentioned in this report on a principal basis. Analyst s Certification Each IA Securities research analyst whose name appears on the front page of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal views about the issuer and securities that are the subject of this report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii) no part of the research analyst s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report. 5 of 6 ELIAS FOSCOLOS

6 Analyst s Ethics As a condition of employment, analysts are required to adhere to the Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct of the CFA Institute (formerly Association for Investment Management and Research AIMR ). Analyst Trading IA Securities permits analysts to own and trade in the securities and or the derivatives of the issuer under their research coverage, subject to the following restrictions. No trades can be executed in anticipation of coverage for a period of 30 days prior to the issuance of the report and 5 days after the dissemination of the report to our clients. For a change in recommendation, no trading is allowed for a period of 24 hours after the dissemination of such information to our clients. A transaction against an analyst s recommendation can only be executed for a reason unrelated to the outlook of the stock for the issuer and with the prior approval of the Director of Research and the Chief Compliance Officer. Research Dissemination Policy IA Securities makes its research available in electronic and printed formats and makes every effort to disseminate research simultaneously to all eligible clients. Research is available to our institutional clients via Bloomberg and First Call as well as through our sales representatives via , fax or regular mail. Electronic versions are distributed in PDF format. Additionally, the research is only intended to be distributed in jurisdictions where IA Securities is licensed. For Canadian Residents: This report has been approved by IA Securities which accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in Canada. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any such issuer discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of IA Securities in their particular jurisdiction. For US Residents: IA Securities is not a U.S. broker-dealer and therefore is not governed by U.S. laws, rules or regulations applicable to U.S. broker-dealers. Consequently, the persons responsible for the content of this publication are not licensed in the U.S. as research analysts in accordance with applicable rules promulgated by the U.S. self regulatory organizations. Any U.S. institutional investor wishing to effect trades in any security referred to herein should contact IA Securities (USA) Inc., a U.S. broker-dealer affiliate of IA Securities. Disclosure Legend 1. Within the last 12 months, IA Securities has received compensation for investment banking services or has provided investment banking services with respect to the securities of the issuer. 2. IA Securities expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the issuer covered in this report within the next three months. 3. In the past 12 months, IA Securities has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the issuer. 4. IA Securities makes a market in the securities of the issuer. 5. IA Securities beneficially owned 1% or more of the common equity (including derivatives exercisable or convertible within 60 days) of the issuer as of the month end preceding this report. 6. The IA Securities research analyst(s), who cover the issuer discussed, members of the research analyst s household, research associate(s) or other individual(s) involved directly or indirectly in producing this report: a. have a long position in its common equity securities. b. have a short position in its common equity securities. 7. The analyst has visited the issuer s head office in Calgary. No payment or reimbursement was received from the issuer for the associated travel costs. 8. In the past 12 months, the issuer is (or has been) a client of IA Securities and received nonbanking and non-securities related services for which IA Securities received or expects to receive compensation. 9. In the past 12 months, neither IA Securities, its officers or directors, nor any analyst involved in the preparation of this report have provided services to the issuer for remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services. 10. An officer or director of IA Securities, outside of the Equity Research Department, or a member of his/her household is an officer or director of the issuer or acts in an advisory capacity to the issuer. 11. The analyst has relied in the preparation of the recommendation on material provided by a third party which will be disclosed on request. Copyright All rights reserved. All material presented in this document may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further published or distributed or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of IA Securities Inc. IA Securities is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada ( IIROC ) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund ( CIPF ). 6 of 6 ELIAS FOSCOLOS

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