NGL Midstream: Propane railcars take pole position

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1 August 30, 2017 The NBF Daily Bulletin Industry Comment Pipelines, Utilities & Energy Infrastructure NGL Midstream: Propane railcars take pole position Industry Rating : Overweight: N/A Market Weight: Energy Equipment & Services; Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Underweight: Chemicals; Utilities (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) Patrick Kenny, CFA (403) patrick.kenny@nbc.ca Associate: Dave Nielsen, CFA (403) dave.nielsen@nbc.ca Associate : Chris Chow (403) chris.chow@nbc.ca Key Takeaways: Summer propane prices spike +25%... with U.S. propane inventories of 72 mmbbls currently sitting ~8% below the five-year average, North American benchmark propane prices have rallied ~25% since Q2/17 levels i.e., Conway, KS propane prices currently at US$31/bbl (67% of WTI) versus US$25/bbl in Q2/17 (51% of WTI). as inventories struggle to keep pace with exports: U.S. propane exports have increased ~140% since 2014 (33% CAGR) from ~375 mbpd to 2017 average levels of ~900 mbpd. Assuming flat exports through the winter heating season year-over-year, we forecast ending withdrawal season U.S. inventories of 32 mmbbls, ~30% below normal end of March levels. As such, we would expect further upside to propane pricing as a % of WTI through the winter months should exports meet or exceed last year s levels. Will old man winter 2014 come out of hibernation? Despite a warmer than normal 2016/2017 winter heating season, propane inventories exited the winter heating season ~10% below the five-year average, and have yet to make up the deficit despite just four injection weeks remaining. Contrast to 2014 when inventories began the withdrawal season ~20% above five-year average levels, before plummeting to ~30% below normalized levels in January thanks to the polar vortex, which caused Conway propane prices to spike to ~130% of WTI Bottom line, although unpredictable, current inventory levels appear grossly unprepared to absorb any potential cold snap this winter, which would likely cause significant pricing volatility, and present attractive arbitrage opportunities for propane marketers with rail infrastructure. The propane marketing line-up: Following a lackluster Q2/17 reporting season for the NGL Midstream players, we recommend taking advantage of recent stock price weakness ahead of what appears to be shaping up as a relatively strong Q4/Q1 winter heating season for propane marketing contributions. Overall, we recommend accumulating Outperform-rated Keyera, Pembina, Superior Plus and Tidewater. US$/bbl $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 CONWAY PROPANE PRICING BY QUARTER Winter: ~US$33.75 Summer: ~US$26.50 U.S. PROPANE INVENTORY mmbbls 900 mbpd BoY 5-yr Avg $10 Q2/17 Q3/17e Q4/17e Q1/18e Note: Forecast based on strip WTI of US$50/bbl and current pricing at 67% WTI. Source: Bloomberg, NBF 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Forecast based on LTM actual exports and normalized winter demand. Source: EIA, NBF NORTH AMERICAN PROPANE FLOW $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 Gross Margin Pricing Asia WCSB (Edmonton) $21.63 Sarnia $33.18 $20 $15 $10 $39.94 Conway $31.08 $5 $0 Edmonton Sarnia Conway Mt Belvieu Asia Gulf Coast (Mt Belvieu) $32.66 Note: Asia propane price based on Far East LPG Index. Source: Bloomberg, NBF Estimates

2 Summer propane prices spike +25% Propane (C3) prices across North America have climbed ~25% since Q2/17, with benchmark Conway, KS prices currently at US$31/bbl (67% WTI) versus US$25/bbl (52% WTI). US$/bbl $55 $45 $35 $25 $15 $5 Propane Pricing Mt Belvieu Edmonton Sarnia Conway Asia 120% 100% 80% % of WTI 60% 40% 20% 0% Mt Belvieu Edmonton Sarnia Conway Asia -$ % Source: NBF, Bloomberg PROPANE BENCHMARK PRICING 30-Aug Aug-16 Q2/17 5-year average US$/bbl % WTI US$/bbl % WTI Y/Y US$/bbl % WTI Y/Y US$/bbl % WTI 5-Year 5-Year Edmonton $ % $ % 164% $ % 52% $ % -9% 17% Conway $ % $ % 97% $ % 25% $ % 0% 24% Sarnia $ % $ % 39% $ % 27% $ % -15% 17% Mt Belvieu $ % $ % 70% $ % 24% $ % -1% 25% N.A. Avg $ % $ % $ % $ % Asia $ % $ % 59% $ % 15% $ % -31% 8% Source: Bloomberg As shown below, Conway, KS and Mt. Belvieu, TX propane prices at 65-70% of WTI compares to the five-year average range for this time of year of 35-45%, signalling concerns among market participants with respect to insufficient inventories heading into crop drying season followed by the winter heating season. 80% 70% 140% Mt Belvieu Propane Seasonal Pricing 80% 5-Year Range 5-Yr Avg Year Range 5-Yr Avg % 60% 60% % of WTI 50% % of WTI 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: NBF, Bloomberg From an arbitrage perspective, Asian benchmark propane prices have kept pace with North American prices, up ~60% i.e., maintaining an attractive spread of >US$7/bbl to justify the cost of exporting propane from North America to Asia (see map below). NORTH AMERICAN PROPANE FLOW $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 Margin Pricing Asia WCSB (Edmonton) $21.63 Sarnia $33.18 $20 $15 $10 $39.94 Conway $31.08 $5 $0 Edmonton Sarnia Conway Mt Belvieu Asia Gulf Coast (Mt Belvieu) $32.66 Note: Asia propane price based on Far East LPG Index. Source: Bloomberg, NBF Estimates

3 Inventories struggle to keep pace with rising exports In light of healthy pricing spreads between Asian and North American benchmarks, propane exports have increased ~140% since 2014 to 2017 average levels of ~900 mbpd from ~375 mbpd and record levels of >1,000 mbpd during the 2017 winter heating season. As the chart below highlights, despite exports representing ~45% of North American propane supply, utilization of total export capacity remains below 70% i.e., suggesting ample room to soak up any incremental production growth over the near term. Combined with incremental Petro-chemical demand poised to increase by ~35 mbpd stemming from Enterprise s PDH facility starting up in early 2018, we expect propane export activity will continue putting pressure on domestic inventories heading into 2018 i.e., supporting above average pricing on a % of WTI basis (Currently >65% versus Oct-Mar five-year avg.: ~50%). mbpd 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, U.S. PROPANE EXPORTS CAPACITY & UTILIZATION CAPACITY Targa Enterprise Sunoco Phillips 66 Other Exports Utilization 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Source: EIA, NBF Commodities Overall, U.S. propane inventories at 72 mmbbls currently sit ~8% below five-year average levels of 79 mmbbls. Below, we provide a forecast for inventories holding exports flat year-over-year (~900 mbpd) and assuming normal winter demand. As shown, under this base case scenario, we could expect inventories to enter the injection season at the end of March 2018 at ~32 mmbbls, or ~30% below the five-year average for that time of year. Needless to say, any further momentum in exports would put further pressure on inventories. U.S. PROPANE INVENTORY mmbbls 900 mbpd BoY 5-yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Forecast based on LTM actual exports and normalized winter demand. Source: EIA, NBF Although unpredictable, the following chart highlights the historical impact of weather on propane. Of particular note, during the polar vortex of 2014, heating degree days for Q4/Q1 were ~400 days or 12% above the five-year average, resulting in Conway propane prices spiking to ~130% of WTI for most of January, before settling down to average ~65% for the remainder of Q1 as exports dissipated in favour of selling into local North American markets. That said, given where inventory levels are at, we would expect any cold snap this winter to cause significant pricing volatility, and present attractive arbitrage opportunities for propane wholesalers.

4 Q4/Q1 HDD VARIANCE VS CONWAY/WTI % Q4/Q1 HDD variance 5-year avg variance - variance Avg Conway/WTI 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Q4/Q1 Conway/WTI % -800 '10/11 '11/12 '12/13 '13/14 '14/15 '15/16 '16/17 0% Source: NBF, Bentek, Bloomberg Propane marketing line-up Keyera (Outperform; $49 target) Following the winter of Q when propane and WTI crude oil prices moved in opposite directions, Keyera revised its propane marketing / hedging strategy, switching from a dirty hedge policy of selling WTI forward winter contracts to protect the value of summer propane inventories to more of a direct hedging policy of selling forward winter propane contracts effectively removing virtually all seasonal pricing risk (including basis risk), while passing through propane commodity price exposure to its producer customers. However, with ~110,000 bpd of NGL fractionation capacity brought online since mid-2016, including Keyera s 35,000 bpd expansion at KFS, Plains 20,000 bpd expansion at PFS, and Pembina s 55,000 bpd expansion at RFS representing >30% increase across Western Canada strong competition for NGL supply to fill the incremental fractionation capacity has led to competitive pricing for propane supply commencing April 1 st, as producers have opted to receive a more transparent Conway, KS benchmark price, less a competitive fee charged by Midstreamers for fractionation, transportation, storage and marketing services. That said, as shown below, Keyera s Fort Saskatchewan plant is virtually fully utilized, suggesting strong support for its fee-for-service Liquids Infrastructure segment. Keyera Fort Sask Frac Plant mbpd C2 C3 C4 C5 Capacity Source: AER, NBF With respect to upside potential amid a potentially robust propane pricing environment this winter, we do note that Keyera typically employs a relatively conservative hedging program (we estimate >75% of winter propane sales already locked in), which will likely mute any positive impact on Marketing contributions. However, any positive uplift on the uncontracted propane volumes could combine with higher utilization / higher fees generated by Keyera s 40,000 bpd propane rail terminal in Josephburg, and its recently commissioned Hull, Texas terminal, as North American markets look to backfill inventory shortfalls. Overall, combined with the iso-octane facility back up and running at full utilization (following a nine-week unplanned outage in Q1/Q2 2017), we would expect a rebound on a margin per barrel basis for Q4/17 and Q1/18 towards ~$3.00/bbl, up from <$2.00/bbl realized in Q2/17, while remaining ~30% below the company s five-year average realized margin of $4.35/bbl. From a valuation sensitivity perspective, Keyera s Marketing segment represents 20-25% of

5 EBITDA. Assuming stronger winter seasonality for Marketing margins in line with the five-year average of $4.35/bbl, we calculate ~6% (~$3.00/sh) valuation upside. KEY MARKETING CONTRIBUTION $/bbl yr Average: $4.35/bbl Q3/12 Q1/13 Q3/13 Q1/14 Q3/14 Q1/15 Q3/15 Q1/16 Q3/16 Q1/17 Q3/17e Q1/18e Source: Company Reports, NBF Estimates Pembina (Outperform; $50 target) Overall, PPL owns the largest NGL fractionation facility in Canada, with the 55,000 bpd RFS III expansion completed late Q2/17 pushing total capacity at Redwater to 210,000 bpd. As shown below, despite Redwater II and III underpinned by take-or-pay contracts, the overall facility remains <50% utilized hence the competitive pricing dynamic for NGL supply as noted above. Pembina Redwater Frac, Units 1-3 mbpd C2 C3 C4 C5 Capacity Source: AER, NBF Pembina s Midstream segment represents ~25% of our 2018e EBITDA pro forma Veresen. Net of the cost-of-service, fee-based and crude oil midstream contributions with Midstream, we estimate propane marketing (Redwater) and frac spread contributions (Empress / Sarnia) represent ~1/3 rd of Midstream contributions (i.e., 8-10% of consolidated EBITDA). From a financial sensitivity perspective, the company has disclosed that each US$1/bbl increase in North American propane prices represents an approximate $20 mln lift in 2017e EBITDA (split ~50/50 between propane marketing and frac spread). Using average Conway prices for Q4/16 and Q1/17 of US$25.50/bbl as a base, and assuming US$33.75/bbl for Q4/17 and Q1/18, we estimate ~$165 mln upside to our EBITDA estimates through Q4/Q1, representing $0.33/sh on an annualized basis, and suggesting ~$4.00/sh valuation upside (~8%).

6 PPL EBITDA SENSITIVITIES, PRE-VSN 2018E - CASH FLOW RISK PROFILE NGL Frac Spread 3% Midstream (other) 14% NGL Marketing 6% Veresen 28% Gas Services 10% Oil Sands & Heavy Oil 5% Conventional Pipelines 34% (1) Sensitivity can be higher or lower depending on cost of inventory. (2) Midstream sensitivities assume a CAD/USD exchange rate $1.31. Source: Company Reports Superior Plus (Outperform; $15 target) SPB s Energy Services segment represents ~75% of 2018e EBITDA pro forma the Canwest acquisition expected to close before year end. Within Energy Services, Wholesale volumes account for ~1/3 rd of the company s Canadian propane business, which contributes ~2/3rds to overall Energy Services EBITDA (with U.S. Refined Fuels contributing ~1/3 rd ). Despite being a largely retail rack-plus pricing propane distribution business that passes through propane prices to its customers, SPB has recently beefed up its wholesale supply management solutions for eastern Canadian customers and U.S. customers seeking access to cheaper western Canadian propane supply. As shown below, year-to-date wholesale volumes are up >35%, which has contributed to a lower overall margin per litre year to date of ~$0.19 versus $0.23 for H i.e., wholesale volumes generating a lower margin relative to residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial and automotive retail distribution volumes. Business. SPB - WHOLESALE PROPANE VOLUMES VS. CDN MARGINS Wholesale Volumes (LTM) CAD Propane Margin ($/litre) Forecast > ($/litre) mln litres Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17e Q4/17e Q1/18e 0 Source: Company reports, NBF However, assuming U.S. propane inventories remain ~10% below five-year average levels, and North America experiences normal winter demand, we estimate ~20% upside potential to our wholesale volume assumptions for Q4/Q1, combined with ~10% margin upside towards $0.21 per litre resulting in ~$40 mln upside to our annualized AFFO/sh estimates (~$0.25/sh), representing ~20% valuation upside. Incremental Margin ($/Litre) Source: NBF, SPB SPB - ANNUALIZED AFFO/SH SENSITIVITY TO WHOLESALE Incremental Q4/Q1 Wholesale Volumes 0% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% $ % 12% 14% 16% 18% $ % 15% 17% 19% 21% $ % 18% 20% 22% 24% $ % 20% 23% 25% 27% $ % 23% 26% 28% 30%

7 Tidewater Midstream (Outperform; $2.25 target) Since IPO in 2015, TWM has embarked on an aggressive strategy to provide market access solutions and improve netbacks for oil & gas producers through ~15 acquisitions of strategic liquids-rich gas processing plants, pipelines, truck racks, storage and rail facilities to capture the value of NGL connectivity. Most recently, TWM commissioned a 10,000 bpd propane fractionation facility at its core Brazeau River Complex (BRC), while relocating a turbo expander to BRC and initiating a 50 mmcf/d debottlenecking expansion. Combined with a recently constructed 100 railcar NGL facility at Edmonton, TWM is poised for a significant lift in marketing contributions for Q4/Q1 on a year-over-year basis. As highlighted in the chart below, upon closing the recently announced $51 mln of acquisitions, TWM is expected to reach a 2017 EBITDA run-rate of ~$80 mln, of which we estimate just ~10% stems from NGL marketing / frac spread contributions. As such, in light of U.S. inventory fundamentals and the recent ~25% uplift in propane prices across North America, we would not be surprised to see TWM s Q4/17 and Q1/18 realized EBITDA exceed our current estimates of $17 mln and $21 mln by ~10% or more, which could accelerate the stock s valuation re-rate from ~6x run-rate EBITDA towards our expected 8-9x trading range (i.e., 3-4x multiple discount relative to peers), representing 35-55% valuation upside. TWM - EBITDA VS. AFFO/SH GROWTH 25.0 EBITDA AFFO/sh (annualized) $ $0.20 EBITDA ($mln) $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 AFFO/sh 0.0 $0.00 Source: NBF, TWM TWM - CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT SUMMARY Target / Growth Projects Date Capital EBITDA EV/EBITDA IPO 15-Apr-15-5 IPO & BRC Acquisition / Financing Apr/Jun-15 $180 $29 6.2x Pipeline Acquisition 02-Sep-15 $8 $0 n/a Peace River Arch Gas Plant Acquisition 15-Oct-15 $12 $2 6.0x Gas Plant & Propane Acquisitions 02-Nov-15 $22 $2 11.0x Edmonton Area Infrastructure Acquisition 02-Jan-16 $10 $0 n/a AltaGas Acquisition 02-Feb-16 $87 $14 6.2x $80.5 MM Financing 29-Feb-16 n.a. $0 n/a Acheson Plant, Land and Pipeline Acquisition and Rail Facility 15-Aug-16 $17 $4 4.3x BRC Infra. Acquisition 16-Nov-16 $15 $3 5.0x Remaining BRC Interest, Gathering Pipelines, Nat Gas Storage 19-Dec-16 $30 $5 6.0x $69 MM Financing 19-Dec-16 n.a. $0 n/a NEBC Processing Plant / NGL Trucking 30-Mar-17 $13 $2 6.5x Q4 Processing Agreement / Ft Sask. Reactivation $20 $2 10.0x Fractionation Facility & Relocation of Turbo Expander Q2/17 $50 $11 4.5x TransCanada and Alliance Connected Infrastructure Q2/17 $6 $2 3.0x Deep Basin/Montney/Wapiti Acquisition Q4/17 $51 $10 5.1x Total $521 $80 6.5x Remaining Capital Over Next Months $ $ x Source: Company Reports, NBF

8 NBF PIPELINES, UTILITIES, & INFRASTRUCTURE COMPARABLES Market Net Debt/ Cash AFFO EV/ EV/Free- 12 mo. Total Company Name TSX Price Cap EV D / EV EBITDA Yield Payout P/E P/CF P/AFFO EBITDA EBITDA Target Return Ratings Ticker 30-Aug-17 $mln $mln % 2018e % 2018e 2018e 2018e 2018e 2018e 2018e % High Payout AltaGas ALA $ ,540 16,752 55% 8.7x 8.4% 80% na 10.3x 9.5x 15.9x 19.5x $ % OP Enbridge Income Fund ENF $ ,715 40,088 41% 5.1x 7.3% 81% na 9.7x 11.1x 12.5x 13.0x $ % SP Gibson Energy GEI $ ,474 3,539 30% 3.2x 7.6% 85% na 9.9x 11.2x 10.6x 11.7x $ % SP Inter Pipeline IPL $ ,673 14,150 39% 5.1x 7.5% 78% na 9.6x 10.3x 13.1x 13.9x $ % SP Keyera KEY $ ,900 9,007 23% 2.6x 4.8% 50% na 9.8x 10.4x 11.1x 11.7x $ % OP Kinder Morgan Limited KML $ ,971 6,825 13% 1.7x 3.9% 75% na 16.5x 18.9x 13.2x 14.5x $ % SP Pembina Pipeline PPL $ ,932 31,700 37% 4.5x 5.6% 56% na 10.1x 10.1x 12.0x 12.1x $ % OP Superior Plus SPB $ ,646 2,555 36% 3.0x 6.2% 55% na 6.4x 8.7x 8.3x 10.1x $ % OP Tidewater Midstream TWM $ % 0.8x 3.1% 18% na 5.5x 5.9x 6.1x 6.6x $ % OP Valener VNR $ ,046 16% 2.2x 5.1% 90% na 17.6x 17.6x 13.6x 13.6x $ % SP Veresen VSN $ ,457 9,030 40% 5.1x 5.7% 77% na 13.4x 13.4x 12.8x 14.8x $ % T High Payout Average 31% 3.8x 5.9% 68% 10.8x 11.6x 11.8x 12.9x 32.4% Low Payout ATCO ACO $ ,259 18,744 72% 6.5x 3.3% 33% 13.3x 5.5x 10.1x 9.1x 12.3x $ % SP Canadian Utilities CU $ ,601 19,929 47% 4.7x 4.0% 40% 16.9x 6.8x 10.0x 10.1x 13.5x $ % SP Capital Power CPX $ ,661 5,318 50% 4.0x 6.8% 43% 15.8x 5.3x 6.3x 8.1x 9.2x $ % OP Emera EMA $ ,277 25,981 60% 5.8x 4.9% 57% 15.6x 6.3x 11.7x 9.6x 13.4x $ % SP Enbridge ENB $ , ,462 50% 6.4x 5.4% 64% 17.6x 9.5x 11.8x 12.9x 14.8x $ % OP Fortis FTS $ ,241 44,304 57% 6.4x 3.8% 45% 17.2x 6.9x 12.0x 11.4x 15.4x $ % SP Hydro One H $ ,831 25,450 46% 4.6x 4.0% 62% 17.3x 7.7x 15.6x 10.0x 15.8x $ % OP TransAlta TA $7.68 2,211 6,992 68% 5.5x 2.1% 28% nm 5.0x 13.6x 8.1x 11.8x $ % SP TransCanada TRP $ , ,861 47% 5.9x 4.4% 54% 19.5x 9.9x 12.3x 12.4x 14.3x $ % SP Low Payout Average 55% 5.6x 4.3% 47% 16.7x 7.0x 11.5x 10.2x 13.4x 20.8% Note: UP = Underperform; SP = Sector Perform; OP = Outperform; NR = Not Rated Source: Company Reports, NBF Estimates, Thomson Reuters

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