Marquee Energy Ltd. Year-end reserves, results and ops update 8 wells ready to be tied in + 11-well program in Q2 = strong production growth ahead
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1 Title: Marquee Energy Ltd. - MQL (TSX-V) Cdn$1.45 Price: Cdn$1.45 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$3.50 Headline: 8 wells ready to be tied in + 11-well program in Q2 = strong production March 29, 2012 The NBF Daily Bulletin MQL (TSX-V) Stock Rating: Target: Risk Rating: Cdn$1.45 Outperform (Unchanged) Cdn$3.50 (Unchanged) Above Average (Unchanged) Est. Total Return 141% 52-week High-Low (Cdn$) $ $5.36 Shares Outstanding (mln) 52.5 Free Float Pct 86% Net Debt (mln) $32.4 Market Cap. (mln) $76.2 Enterprise Value (mln) $108.6 Production e 2013e Oil & NGL's (bbls/d) Nat. Gas (mcf/d) Boe/d (6:1) % Nat. Gas 59% 40% 34% Pricing e 2013e WTI (US$/bbl) $95.05 $95.00 $90.00 AECO (Cdn$/mcf) $3.62 $2.99 $3.45 Corp. Oil & NGL's ($/bbl) $83.79 $81.91 $77.04 Corp. Nat. Gas ($/mcf) $3.81 $3.14 $3.60 Corp. Wellhead ($/boe) $47.81 $56.76 $58.36 Estimates e 2013e Cash Flow (mln) $10.9 $30.2 $45.1 CFPS - diluted $0.41 $0.60 $0.86 CF Netback ($/boe) $20.40 $27.59 $29.84 Capex (mln) $31.8 $59.1 $60.0 Net Debt (mln) $25.0 $34.7 $49.6 Valuation e 2013e P/CF 9.1 x 2.4 x 1.7 x EV/DACF 6.9 x 3.5 x 2.6 x Net Debt / CF 2.3 x 1.1 x 1.1 x EV/BOE/D $ $ $ P/NAVPS 0.7x EV/boe P+P $9.95 Source: Company reports, NBF estimates Industry Rating: (Oil and Gas Exploration and Production): Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) Company Profile: Marquee is a junior energy company that holds more than 113,000 net acres of land and targets Viking, Mannville and Banff oil throughout east central Alberta, Sunburst oil at Coutts, Cardium oil at Willesden Green and Carrot Creek, Frobisher/Midale oil at Weyburn and Montney oil at Ante Creek. Marquee pursues plays where cost structures are low and the risk profile is conducive to a junior company. Ryan Mooney (403) ryan.mooney@nbc.ca Associate: Thomas Chan (403) thomas.chan@nbc.ca Marquee Energy Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Year-end reserves, results and ops update 8 wells ready to be tied in + 11-well program in Q2 = strong production growth ahead HIGHLIGHTS Current production impresses with more liquids Marquee has been very busy in the field. It has completed three Banff oil reactivations at Michichi, drilled two vertical Viking oil tests at Provost and six horizontal new drills at Michichi and Coutts since December. Despite that only two Michichi horizontals are currently on production, and at least eight separate well events are to be tied in prior to the Q2 exit, current production sits at 2,570 boe/d (59% liquids), which is higher and more oil-weighted than we had expected. With tieing in the standing wells and on account of an 11-well drilling program to come during Q2, we believe Marquee is on track toward its 2012 exit rate of 3,600 boe/d (66% liquids). Reserves; NAV updated; annual results disclosed The company disclosed 2P reserves of 10.9 mmboe (47% liquids) at year end. We estimate 2P reserves of 12.6 mmboe (54% liquids) and a core NAV of $2.01/sh pro forma the acquisition of Teague Exploration Inc. which closed on March 16 th. Marquee also announced 2011 annual production of 1,555 boe/d (41% liquids) and CFPS of $0.41, which was below our expectation of $0.49. Excluding Q411 transaction costs, CFPS would have been in line with our estimate. On the cusp of growth; maintain Outperform; $3.50 target In 2013, MQL trades at 2.6x EV/DACF and $30k/boe/d vs. its junior peers at 3.9x and $46k/boe/d, respectively. In front of numerous upcoming well catalysts that should yield significant production growth and on account of top-decile estimated CFPS growth of 127% in 2012 and 49% in 2013, we reiterate our Outperform rating and maintain our $3.50 target. Stock Performance (Source: Bloomberg) Price ($/sh) $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan Volume (000's)
2 Page 2 Current production impresses with more liquids Marquee has been very busy in the field. It has completed three Banff oil reactivations at Michichi, drilled two vertical Viking oil tests at Provost and six horizontal new drills at Michichi and Coutts since December of last year when new management took over from SkyWest Energy. Despite that only two Michichi horizontals are currently on production, and at least eight separate well events are to be tied in prior to the Q2 exit, current production sits at 2,570 boe/d (59% liquids) which is higher and more oil-weighted than what we had expected. With tieing in the standing wells and on account of an 11-well drilling program to come during Q2 at Lloydminster and Michichi, we believe Marquee is on track toward its 2012 exit rate of 3,600 boe/d (66% liquids). The company anticipates that it can maintain operational momentum throughout 2012 and into 2013 on account of a $36 million 2012 drilling program that will include a total of 13 horizontal wells, seven vertical wells and numerous low risk recompletion candidates. More than 60% of its capital program will be directed to low cost, light oil drilling opportunities in its core eastern Alberta Provost/Michichi strikes. With this release, it also reiterated annual production guidance to average 3,100 boe/d (60% liquids) and exit the year in excess of 3,600 boe/d (66% liquids). In tandem with its strategy to consolidate within its core operating areas, like at Michichi and Lloydminster for example, Marquee will also look to crystallize value via non-core asset dispositions during We believe that Marquee holds numerous properties, such as at Ante Creek, Carrot Creek and Weyburn, that would be attractive to other competitors yet they are allocated limited capital within Marquee s 2012 program. If it can rationalize these assets and use the proceeds to pay down debt, it would further bolster its balance sheet which we estimate currently sits with a net debt position of $32 million (bank debt of $22 million) at Q112, 42% drawn on its $52 million credit facility and at 1.8x Q112 annualized D/CF heading to 0.9x in Q412. Reserves of 10.9 mmboe at year end; 12.6 mmboe pro forma the deal Reserve split. Marquee s year-end reserves of 5.1 mmboe 1P and 10.9 mmboe 2P were up 6% and flat y/y, respectively. Liquids comprised 47% of reserves on a 2P basis. Proved reserves were comprised of 2.0 mmboe PDP (39%), 0.5 mmboe PDNP (11%) and 2.6 mmboe PUD (50%). Marquee s reserves were evaluated by Sproule Associates Ltd. Pro forma its recent acquisition of the private company, Teague Exploration Inc., we estimate 2P reserves of 12.6 mmboe (54% liquids). Reserve costs. Marquee spent total net capex of $91.9 million ($39 million E&D offset by $27.1 million in net acquisitions and including $25.8 million in 2P ΔFDC) during the year to add 2.4 mmboe E&D before consideration of 2.5 mmboe of negative revisions, net acquisitions of 0.7 mmboe and production of 0.6 mmboe. We had expected higher reserve costs this year given the fact that it was a transitionary period for the company since new management took over. It has now cleaned up the reserve book substantially, having taken significant technical and economic revisions at its south Pembina Cardium property. We do not believe this year s reserve costs are reflective of the capital efficiencies associated with Marquee s go-forward development inventory that will attract capital in its 2012 and 2013 program. Reserve replacement. We estimate that Marquee was able to organically replace 396% of 0.6 mmboe of produced reserves during the year by adding 2.4 mmboe (2P) through the drill bit. Alternatively, on an all-in basis, including technical revisions, economic factors and A&D activity, Marquee fell just 8% short of replacing 2011 produced reserves.
3 Page 3 RLI. We estimate that Marquee will average 2,370 boe/d (51% liquids) during Q112. On year-end P and 2P reserves of 5.1 mmboe and 10.9 mmboe, we estimate an RLI of 5.9 and 12.6 years, respectively. FDC. On an estimated 2012 capital program of $36 million, we estimate average annual production of 3,012 boe/d (60% liquids) and cash flow of $30 million, which would imply that total 2P FDC of $122 million amounts to 4.0 years of run-rate cash flow. MARQUEE YEAR-END RESERVE RECONCILIATION Reserve Reconciliation Proven (mboe) Probable (mboe) 2P (mboe) FD&A Costs ($/Boe) 1P 2P Opening Balance All-in FD&A (incl. FDC) $95.39 $ Exploration & Development All-in FD&A (no FDC) $75.72 $ Revisions E&D (no FDC, excl. revisions) $40.46 $16.27 Net Acquisitions A&D (no FDC) $52.52 $39.74 Production Closing Balance e Operating Netback ($/boe) $28.37 Capital ($m) Recycle Ratio E&D Capex $39.0 1P 0.3 A&D Capital & Other $27.1 2P Total Capex $66.1 Change in Future Capital - 1P $17.2 Reserve Life Index (1Q12e Prod'n) Change in Future Capital - 2P $25.8 1P RLI (years) 5.9 2P RLI (years) 12.6 Reserve Replacement 1P 2P Drill-bit Replacement 159% 396% Reserve Evalautor All-in Replacement 144% 92% Sproule Associates Ltd. Source: Company Reports, NBF, March 2012 Estimated NAV of $2.01 We have updated our NAV model to account for the reserve update from last night. Based on third-party 2P reserve volumes of 10.9 mmboe (47% liquids) adjusted to 12.6 mmboe (54% liquids) pro forma the Teague Exploration Inc. acquisition with estimated FDC of ~$132 million and run on our NBF pricing (US$95.00/bbl WTI, Cdn$97.00/bbl Edmonton, US$3.25/mmbtu NYMEX, Cdn$3.00/mcf AECO) and operating assumptions, we estimate a Marquee core NAV (before-tax, NPV10) of $2.01/sh pro forma its recent acquisition. MARQUEE CORE NAV (NBF ESTIMATE) (all figures in $000 unless noted) Present Value of Reserves (1) $ Working Capital / (Net Debt) (2) (32 420) Option proceeds (2) Undeveloped land (3) Asset Retirement Obligation (2) (9 141) Net Asset Value $ Shares outstanding (f.d.) (2) NAV per share - f.d $2.01 Price $1.45 Price / NAV 0.7x Notes (1) All cash flow s discounted to January 1, 2012 using beforetax 10% discount rate (2) Qe (3) As at year-end 2011a based on $200 per acre, adjusted for disclosed crow n land acquisitions Source: Company Reports, NBF, March 2012
4 Page 4 Cash flow light of our expectation during transitionary period Marquee announced 2011 annual production of 1,555 boe/d (41% liquids) and CFPS of $0.41. While production was in line, cash flow was below our expectation of $0.49 mainly on account of higher operating and transportation expenses in addition to one-time transaction costs of $1.7 million. Excluding Q411 transaction costs, CFPS would have been $0.48, basically in line with our prior estimate. Marquee posted Q411 production of 1,655 boe/d (41% liquids) and CFPS of $0.02. Marquee spent $7.5 million during the quarter which brought the annual total to $34.6 million. From a net debt position of $1.3 million at year-end 2010 and against gross cash flow of $10.9 million during the year, it exited the year with $25.0 million of net debt including bank debt of $19.5 million against a $45 million line. Its credit facility has since been bumped to $52 million with the close of its recent acquisition. Changes to estimates We have altered our estimates slightly to reflect higher cost structures associated with producing oil. In addition, we have moved our realized oil pricing assumptions slightly lower, more in line with recent quarterly actuals. We now forecast 2012 production of 3,012 boe/d (60% liquids) and CFPS of $0.60, which is down 7% from $0.64 previously. CHANGES TO ESTIMATES 2011E 2012E 2013E Revised Previous Chg % Revised Previous Chg % Revised Previous Chg % Production Oil & Liquids (bbl/d) % % % Natural Gas (mcf/d) % % % Total (boe/d) % % % Financial Dev. Capex ($k) % % % Cash Flow ($k) % % % Net Debt ($k) % % % Debt/CF 2.3x 1.7x 35% 1.1x 0.9x 25% 1.1x 0.8x 35% CFPS (f.d.) $0.41 $ % $0.60 $0.64-7% $0.86 $0.94-9% EPS (f.d.) -$0.98 $0.02 nmf $0.00 $ % $0.07 $ % Source: Company Reports, NBF, March 2012 Reiterate Outperform; $3.50 target; 141% upside MQL is currently trading at an attractive discount to its junior peers at 2.6x 2013e EV/DACF and $30,000/boe/d, compared with the group at 3.9x and $46,000 boe/d, respectively. In front of numerous upcoming well catalysts that should yield significant production growth and on account of top-decile estimated CFPS growth of 127% in 2012 and 49% in 2013, we reiterate our Outperform rating and maintain our $3.50 target. Our target is based on a 4.4x 2013e EV/DACF base multiple ($2.90/sh) and additional upside of $0.58/sh, which represents the unbooked risked and discounted value of only its Mannville/Banff oil prospect at Michichi. All told, its Mannville/Banff oil play at Michichi, Viking oil play at Provost, Sunburst oil play at Coutts, Montney oil play at Ante Creek and Cardium oil play at Willesden Green combine to add an additional $5.78/sh in unrisked but discounted inventory upside on top of its $2.01/sh core NAV to reach an unrisked but discounted value of $7.79/sh.
5 Page 5 VALUATION OVERVIEW MARQUEE ENERGY (MQL CN) Multiple $/sh Base 2013e EV/DACF Target Multiple 4.4x 2.90 Unrisked Value Risk Factor Risked Value Resource Upside $mln $/sh % $mln $/sh Michichi - Mannville/Banff % Provost - Viking % Coutts - Sunburst % Ante Creek - Montney % Willesden Green - Cardium % Carrot Creek - Cardium % Total Resource Upside Combined Base & Resource Upside Target Price $3.50 Current Share Price $1.45 Return 141% Base 2P NAV 2011 $2.01 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 Unrisked Upside Risked Upside Base Cash Flow Component Target Price Current Price $5.20 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $0.58 $0.58 $4.00 $2.00 $2.90 $2.90 $2.90 $2.01 $2.00 $0.00 Base Base + Risked Upside Base + Unrisked Upside 2P Blow Down NAV $0.00 Source: Company Reports, NBF, March 2012
6 Page 6 FINANCIAL & OPERATING SUMMARY - MARQUEE ENERGY STOCK RATING Outperform CURRENT SHARE PRICE $1.45 TARGET PRICE $ WK HIGH / LOW $5.36 / $1.11 RETURN TO TARGET 141% MARKET CAP ($mln) $76.2 RISK RATING Above Average ENTERPRISE VALUE ($mln) $108.6 PRODUCTION MIX e 2013e Crude Oil bbls/d Natural Gas mmcf/d Total (boe/d) (6:1) boe/d % Natural Gas 68% 59% 40% 34% NETBACKS e 2013e Revenue $/boe $39.52 $48.97 $56.88 $58.40 Royalties -$5.07 -$4.42 -$6.83 -$8.18 Op. Costs (Incl. Transp.) -$ $ $ $16.01 Operating Netback $/boe $15.52 $28.37 $33.25 $34.21 G&A -$ $6.92 -$4.22 -$2.99 Interest & Tax $1.10 -$1.06 -$1.44 -$1.39 Cash Flow Netback $/boe -$5.10 $20.40 $27.59 $29.84 Ante Creek West Central Alberta CORE PROPERTIES East Central Alberta Calgary Lloydminster Coutts FINANCIAL RESULTS NET ASSET VALUE (10% pre-tax) e 2013e Present Value of Reserves $mln $126.0 Cash from Operations $mln -$0.5 $10.9 $30.2 $45.1 Options Proceeds 7.0 CFPS (basic) -$0.06 $0.41 $0.60 $0.86 Undeveloped Land 22.7 CFPS (diluted) -$0.06 $0.41 $0.60 $0.86 Net Debt (32.4) SHARES OUTSTANDING Asset Retirement Obligation (9.1) Shares Outstanding e 2013e NET ASSET VALUE $114.1 Basic - year-end mln per share (fully diluted) ($/sh) $2.01 Fully diluted - year-end mln Wtd Avg - basic mln RESERVES SUMMARY Wtd Avg - diluted mln CAPITAL SPENDING / DEBT LEVELS Reserves 2P RLI Capital Expenditures $mln e 2013e mboe % years Development $32.0 $39.0 $36.0 $60.0 PDP 2,636 44% Oil 8.1 Acquisitions & Other $24.3 ($5.6) $23.1 $0.0 Other 3,290 56% Gas 13.1 Total $56.3 $33.4 $59.1 $60.0 Proved 5,926 47% Total 9.9 Capex Funding $mln Probable 6,687 53% Cash flow -$0.5 $10.9 $30.2 $45.1 2P 12, % Equity issued $59.9 $1.1 $19.2 $0.0 Capital required (debt repayment) ($3.1) $21.5 $9.7 $14.9 Net Debt (year-end) $mln $1.3 $25.0 $34.7 $49.6 FINDING & DEVELOPMENT COSTS (INCL. FDC) Debt/Cash Flow (trailing) -2.4x 2.3x 1.1x 1.1x 2010a 2011a 3yr. Avg. F&D - proved $27.49 nmf nmf SHARE OWNERSHIP & RECENT ISSUES F&D - proved + probable $16.88 nmf nmf INSIDER OWNERSHIP Basic Fully Diluted FD&A - proved $27.76 nmf nmf Management & Directors 8% 14% FD&A - proved + probable $17.24 nmf nmf RECENT ISSUES Shares Proceeds Date Price (mln) (mln) Recycle Ratio (operating) 0.9x nmf nmf Flow-Through (CEE) Dec-11 $ $1.0 Business Combination w/ SkyWest Dec-11 $ $25.9 VALUATION 2012e 2013e COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS MQL Group Avg. MQL Group Avg. Commodity prices e 2013e WTI Crude oil (US$/bbl) $79.51 $95.05 $95.00 $90.00 EV/DACF 3.5x 4.8x 2.6x 3.9x Canadian Par (C$/bbl) $77.55 $95.25 $97.00 $91.75 P/CF 2.4x 3.7x 1.7x 2.9x NYMEX gas (US$/mcf) $4.38 $4.00 $3.25 $3.75 AECO gas (C$/mcf) $3.99 $3.62 $3.00 $3.45 EV/BOE/D $ $ $ $ Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.97 $1.01 $0.97 $0.97 EV/2P $9.95 $13.78 P/NAV 0.7x 0.9x Source: Company reports, NBF estimates
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8 Page 8 If a company specific disclosure is not found herein for a listed company, NBF at this time does not provide research coverage or stock rating for the company in question. Marquee Energy Ltd. (MQL) - ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is not a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. (10) Analyst Information Analyst Compensation: NBF compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of NBF including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales, the correspondent clearing business, and Corporate and Investment Banking. Since the revenues from these businesses vary, the funds for research compensation vary. No one-business line has a greater influence than any other for Research Analyst compensation. Analyst Stock Holdings: The Research Analyst has a long position in the common equity securities of the subject issuer. NBF permits Analysts to own or liquidate securities and/or derivatives of those companies under their coverage only in certain limited circumstances with the approval of the Head of Research subject to the following restrictions: no trades can be executed in anticipation of the initiation of coverage or for 30 days prior to initiating coverage; no trades can be executed for five days after dissemination of launching coverage or a material change in recommendation; and no trades can be executed against an analyst s recommendation. Exceptions require prior approval of the Head of Research and Compliance and can only be executed for a reason unrelated to the outlook of the stock and in accordance with the provisions of NASD Rule 2711 (g) Restrictions on Personal Trading by Research Analysts.
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