Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
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- Cameron Simpson
- 5 years ago
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1 September 11, 2009 Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation OUTPERFORM Date of Last Change 08/18/2009 Current Price (09/10/09) $62.91 Target Price $65.00 (CNQ-NYSE) SUMMARY We are initiating coverage on Canadian Natural Resources with a Neutral recommendation and a target price of $65. The company has a balanced, low-risk conventional asset base together with substantial oil sands production base. Other positive attributes in the Canadian Natural story include its selective international exposure, active hedging policy, competitive cost structure, strong balance sheet, and robust free cash flows. However, we believe that the current unfavorable macro backdrop for E&P companies offsets most, if not all, of the positives. Delays in its multi billion dollar Horizon oil sands project have also held back the stock. 52-Week High $ Week Low $26.98 One-Year Return (%) Beta 1.85 Average Daily Volume (sh) 1,655,310 Shares Outstanding (mil) 542 Market Capitalization ($mil) $33,166 Short Interest Ratio (days) 0.65 Institutional Ownership (%) 61 Insider Ownership (%) 5 Annual Cash Dividend $0.42 Dividend Yield (%) Yr. Historical Growth Rates Sales (%) 21.0 Earnings Per Share (%) 16.3 Dividend (%) 24.3 using TTM EPS 12.3 using 2009 Estimate 13.8 using 2010 Estimate 13.6 Zacks Rank *: Short Term 1 3 months outlook 3 * Definition / Disclosure on last page Risk Level * Below Avg., Type of Stock Large-Blend Industry Oil-C$ Exp&Prod Zacks Industry Rank * 133 out of 217 ZACKS ESTIMATES Revenue (In millions of $) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) ,342 A 2,868 A 2,938 A 2,915 A 11,063 A ,951 A 4,380 A 4,409 A 1,740 A 14,480 A ,600 A 2,178 A 2,151 E 2,406 E 8,335 E ,190 E Earnings Per Share (EPS is operating earnings before non-recurring items) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) 2007 $0.99 A $0.88 A $1.05 A $1.04 A $3.96 A 2008 $1.61 A $1.78 A $1.71 A $1.00 A $6.10 A 2009 $1.08 A $1.33 A $1.15 E $1.00 E $4.56 E 2010 $4.64 E Zacks Projected EPS Growth Rate - Next 5 Years % Zacks Investment Research, All Rights reserved.
2 OVERVIEW Calgary, Alberta-based Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) is engaged in the acquisition, development and exploitation of crude oil and natural gas properties. It is one of the largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies in Canada, with extensive heavy crude oil and natural gas developments. Canadian Natural Resources core operations are focused in western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and offshore West Africa. As of the end of 2008, the company had approximately 1.96 billion oil-equivalent barrels (BBOE) in conventional proved reserves, of which 69% was crude oil/liquids and 31% natural gas. Approximately 80% of the company s conventional proved reserves are located in North America, while 12% and 8% of the total are located in the North Sea and offshore West Africa, respectively. In addition, Canadian Natural had approximately 1.95 billion barrels in total proved reserves in its oil sands (naturally occurring mixtures of bitumen water and sand) operations in the Province of Alberta. Production averaged 564,845 oil-equivalent barrels per day (BOE/d) during 2008, comprising 56% crude oil/ liquid hydrocarbons and 44% gas. By far the company s most prominent initiative is its Horizon Oil Sands Project in the Athabasca oil sands play of northern Alberta. Canadian Natural achieved first synthetic crude oil production from the $8.3 billion project in February Designed to produce 110,000 barrels of synthetic crude per day, the company hopes to complete Phase I construction of the project by the end of this year. The Canadian oil sands, with their estimated 200 billion barrels of recoverable reserves, are the only oil resource to rival that of Saudi Arabia. The company s estimates indicate 6-8 billion net recoverable barrels for its Horizon acreage. Conventional Proved Reserves by Region (2008) North America North Sea West Africa REASONS TO BUY Canadian Natural has a broad portfolio of low-risk exploration and development projects that yield long-term volume growth at above-average rates. We also like the company s diverse asset base both geographically and in terms of product comprising approximately 44% natural gas and 56% crude oil, with approximately 94% of production located in G8 countries. We believe this significantly reduces the company s risk profile and gives its results a high level of stability. Apart from the conventional oil and gas production assets, Canadian Natural is also a major oil sands player with several projects in inventory. The company achieved a significant milestone in February 2009, when it started the Horizon oil sands program. Production from the project averaged approximately 60,000 barrels per day (Bbl/d) during the second quarter. It is slated to reach 110,000 Bbl/d by year-end (with the completion of first of the three phases), eventually ramping up to 500,000 Bbl/d by the next decade, thereby significantly augmenting the company s long-term production growth profile. Equity Research Page 2
3 Canadian Natural follows an active hedging policy that reduces its exposure to the volatility in energy prices. As such, the company remains better positioned than most of its peers to operate in the current low commodity-price environment. We consider this to be a key positive for Canadian Natural s risk profile. The company s strong, balanced and diverse asset portfolio, combined with its focus on low cost operations has allowed the company to generate substantial free cash flow (operating cash flows less capex) even in a low price environment. We project that Canadian Natural s free cash flows will exceed $2 billion in 2009, which, coupled with the available unused bank lines of $1.7 billion, provides the company with enough financial flexibility. REASONS TO SELL RECENT NEWS As is the case with other independent E&P companies, results are directly exposed to oil and gas prices, which are inherently volatile and subject to complex market forces. Canadian Natural has seen its revenue and income fall drastically in recent quarters on the back of lower commodity prices. One of Canadian Natural s most important projects the recently commissioned Horizon oil sands program is months behind schedule and billions of dollars over its original budget. Any further cost and time overrun in the company s ongoing projects will have a negative effect on the stock s performance. The issue of uncertainty with respect to Alberta s changing royalty regime for the oil sands projects is another risk factor. The provincial government s plans to raise the royalty rates, beginning in January 2009, has created significant uncertainty with respect to the viability of long-term expansion plans for many projects, including Canadian Natural s Horizon. Approximately 28% of the company s 2008 production were in the heavier crude grades, which can be handled only by a limited number of refineries with specialized facilities. Additionally, the price received for heavy crude oil is generally lower than the price for medium and light crude oil (crude quality spreads), while production costs associated with heavy crude are generally higher than for lighter grades. Future quality differentials are uncertain and an unfavorable movement in the crude quality spreads towards the heavier grade will adversely affect the company s margins. Second Quarter 2009 Results On August 6, Canadian Natural reported better-than-expected second-quarter results primarily due to ramp up of production at the Horizon oil sands project. Earnings per share, excluding one-time and noncash items, came in at $1.33, $0.20 above the Zacks Consensus Estimate. On a year-over-year basis, Canadian Natural s adjusted earnings per share fell more than 25% while revenue nosedived 50% to $2.2 billion, hurt by weak natural gas prices and lower natural gas volumes. Total production during the quarter was up 3% year over year to 590,984 BOE/d. Oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production was up approximately 15% to 365,672 Bbl/d, reflecting the contribution of Horizon and the Offshore West Africa division. However, natural gas production fell more than 11% yearover-year to 1,352 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), as the company cut drilling to focus on more lucrative oil projects. Equity Research Page 3
4 The average realized crude oil price (before hedging) during the second quarter was C$59.56 per barrel, representing a decrease of 43% from the corresponding period of the previous year. The average realized natural gas price (excluding hedging) during the three months ended June 30, 2009 was $4.11 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), down 58% from the year-ago period. Balance Sheet Canadian Natural s total capital spending during the second quarter of 2009 was $473 million. At the end of the second quarter, the company had cash on hand of C$25 million and long-term debt of approximately C$12.0 billion, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 39.2%. Guidance Management is guiding towards production of 363, ,000 Bbl/d of liquids and 1,274 1,304 MMcf/d of natural gas during the third quarter. The company is planning to drill 24 net natural gas wells in this period. For 2009, Canadian Natural expects oil and NGLs production to be 346, ,000 Bbl/d, while natural gas volumes for the year are likely to be 1,289 1,330 MMcf/d. It plans to spend approximately $3.2 billion on capital expenditures in VALUATION Overall, we think Canadian Natural is in a better position to weather the current downturn than many of its peers in the large cap E&P space given its diverse asset base, strong financial health, and an active hedging policy. The key negative, in our view, is the current unfavorable macro backdrop, which is expected to continue drowning out the positives, at least in the near term. Another area of concern for us is the delays and/or cost over-runs in its Horizon oil sands. Considering these factors, we initiate Canadian Natural with a Neutral recommendation. Our $65 price objective represents a multiple of 6.3X trailing twelve-month cash flow, the same multiple based on the current market price. Equity Research Page 4
5 Key Indicators F1 F2 Est. 5-Yr EPS Gr% P/CF 5-Yr High 5-Yr Low Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) Industry Average S&P EnCana Corp. (ECA) FEC Resources Inc. (FECOF) Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) Nexen Inc. (NXY) TTM is trailing 12 months; F1 is 2009 and F2 is 2010, CF is operating cash flow P/B Last Qtr. P/B 5-Yr High P/B 5-Yr Low ROE D/E Last Qtr. Div Yield Last Qtr. EV/EBITDA Canadian Natural Resources Ltd Industry Average S&P Equity Research Page 5
6 Earnings Surprise and Estimate Revision History Equity Research Page 6
7 If you do not agree with our NEUTRAL recommendation for CNQ Read why professional investors may have a different recommendation on the stock Go to: DISCLOSURES & DEFINITIONS The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of CNQ. Zacks EPS and revenue forecasts are not consensus forecasts. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the securities it covers. Outperform- Zacks expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Neutral- Zacks expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to two quarters. Underperform- Zacks expects the company will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next one to two quarters. The current distribution of Zacks Ratings is as follows on the 1349 companies covered: Outperform- 18.1%, Neutral- 74.4%, Underperform 7.1%. Data is as of midnight on the business day immediately prior to this publication. Our recommendation for each stock is closely linked to the Zacks Rank, which results from a proprietary quantitative model using trends in earnings estimate revisions. This model is proven most effective for judging the timeliness of a stock over the next 1 to 3 months. The model assigns each stock a rank from 1 through 5. Zacks Rank 1 = Strong Buy. Zacks Rank 2 = Buy. Zacks Rank 3 = Hold. Zacks Rank 4 = Sell. Zacks Rank 5 = Strong Sell. We also provide a Zacks Industry Rank for each company which provides an idea of the near-term attractiveness of a company s industry group. We have 217 industry groups in total. Thus, the Zacks Industry Rank is a number between 1 and 217. In terms of investment attractiveness, the higher the rank the better. Historically, the top half of the industries has outperformed the general market. In determining Risk Level, we rely on a proprietary quantitative model that divides the entire universe of stocks into five groups, based on each stock s historical price volatility. The first group has stocks with the lowest values and are deemed Low Risk, while the 5 th group has the highest values and are designated High Risk. Designations of Below-Average Risk, Average Risk, and Above-Average Risk correspond to the second, third, and fourth groups of stocks, respectively. Equity Research Page 7
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February 12, 2015 Genworth Financial Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 08/22/2014 Current Price (02/11/15) $8.33 Target Price $7.50 SUMMARY DATA UNDERPERFORM
More informationSUMMARY. Risk Level *
January 09, 2015 Fred s Inc (FRED-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 07/17/2014 Current Price (01/08/15) $17.13 Target Price $18.00
More informationFederated Investors, Inc.
March 04, 2015 Federated Investors, Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 11/30/2014 Current Price (03/03/15) $33.52 Target Price $35.00 NEUTRAL SUMMARY (FII-NYSE)
More informationDillard s Inc. NEUTRAL ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES (DDS-NYSE)
March 12, 2015 Dillard s Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 01/05/2014 Current Price (03/11/15) $130.28 Target Price $137.00 52-Week High
More informationNextEra Energy Inc. NEUTRAL ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES (NEE-NYSE)
March 10, 2015 NextEra Energy Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation NEUTRAL Outperform Date of Last Change 01/14/2010 Current Price (03/09/15) $98.93 Target Price $104.00 (NEE-NYSE) SUMMARY
More informationCH Robinson Worldwide Inc.
March 20, 2015 CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. Current Recommendation NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 08/22/2013 Current Price (03/19/15) $75.16 Target Price $79.00 SUMMARY DATA
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March 20, 2015 The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 01/12/2011 Current Price (03/19/15) $48.82
More informationHudson City Bancorp, Inc.
March 20, 2015 Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 03/20/2015 Current Price (03/19/15) $10.31 Target Price $11.00 52-Week
More informationBig Lots Inc. NEUTRAL ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES (BIG-NYSE) SUMMARY
March 13, 2015 Big Lots Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 03/24/2014 Current Price (03/11/15) $49.95 Target Price $52.00 52-Week High
More informationAXIS Capital Holdings Ltd.
March 20, 2015 AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 07/24/2013 Current Price (03/19/15) $51.45 Target Price $54.00
More informationThe Tjx Companies Inc
February 26, 2015 The Tjx Companies Inc Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 04/29/2010 Current Price (02/25/15) $69.38 Target Price $73.00 NEUTRAL SUMMARY (TJX-NYSE)
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February 13, 2015 BorgWarner Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 03/24/2013 Current Price (02/12/15) $61.38 Target Price $64.00 NEUTRAL (BWA-NYSE) SUMMARY
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January 29, 2015 3M Company Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 04/27/2010 Current Price (01/28/15) $163.94 Target Price $172.00 52-Week High
More informationZoetis Inc. NEUTRAL ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES (ZTS-NYSE) SUMMARY. Revenue Estimates (In millions of $) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec)
March 06, 2015 Zoetis Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 06/03/2014 Current Price (03/05/15) $46.46 Target Price $49.00 52-Week High
More informationFlowserve Corporation
March 17, 2015 Flowserve Corporation Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 12/18/2014 Current Price (03/16/15) $56.96 Target Price $60.00 NEUTRAL (FLS-NYSE) SUMMARY
More informationLyondellBasell Industries NV
March 12, 2015 LyondellBasell Industries NV Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 11/09/2011 Current Price (03/11/15) $85.11 Target Price $89.00 NEUTRAL (LYB-NYSE)
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February 10, 2015 athenahealth Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 10/23/2011 Current Price (02/09/15) $136.28 Target Price $143.00 52-Week
More informationSUMMARY. Risk Level *
February 13, 2015 NetApp, Inc. Current Recommendation Earnings Update: NetApp Reports Q3 Results SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 08/19/2013 Current Price (02/12/15)
More informationSymmetry Medical, Inc.
November 28, 2014 Symmetry Medical, Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 11/28/2014 Current Price (11/27/14) $9.11 Target Price $9.50 52-Week
More informationSUMMARY. Risk Level *
February 02, 2015 Xerox Corporation Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 10/18/2012 Current Price (01/30/15) $13.17 Target Price $14.00 52-Week
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December 30, 2014 Sallie Mae (SLM-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 01/08/2013 Current Price (12/29/14) $10.32 Target Price $11.00
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February 09, 2015 Kirkland s Inc (KIRK-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 02/09/2015 Current Price (02/06/15) $25.66 Target Price $31.00 OUTPERFORM SUMMARY
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January 21, 2015 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 11/23/2009 Current Price (01/20/15) $73.31 Target Price $77.00 52-Week
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March 11, 2015 The Clorox Company Current Recommendation NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 11/11/2012 Current Price (03/10/15) $107.83 Target Price $113.00 SUMMARY DATA (CLX-NYSE)
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September 11, 2014 Liberty Interactive Corporation (LINTA-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 09/11/2014 Current Price (09/10/14) $29.41 Target Price $27.00
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January 29, 2015 Honeywell International Inc. Current Recommendation NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 07/18/2012 Current Price (01/28/15) $99.82 Target Price $105.00 SUMMARY
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December 25, 2014 United Parcel Service Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 02/04/2009 Current Price (12/24/14) $112.41 Target Price $118.00
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January 14, 2015 Cablevision Systems Corporation. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 02/10/2014 Current Price (01/13/15) $20.00 Target Price
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March 19, 2015 Dollar General Corporation Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 11/09/2011 Current Price (03/18/15) $75.39 Target Price $79.00
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March 06, 2015 VIVUS Inc. (VVUS-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 03/06/2015 Current Price (03/05/15) $2.87 Target Price $3.00 52-Week
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January 07, 2015 Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 01/07/ 2015 Current Price (01/06/15) $27.86 Target Price $25.00 UNDERPERFORM (UBNT-NASDAQ)
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October 28, 2014 Healthways Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Earnings Update SUMMARY DATA Healthways report Q3 OUTPERFORM Neutral Date of Last Change 08/06/2014 Current Price (10/27/14)
More informationDanaher Corporation (DHR-NYSE) Analyst Note
January 29, 2015 Danaher Corporation (DHR-NYSE) Analyst Note NEUTRAL Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 05/15/2005 Current Price (01/28/15) $82.85 Target Price $87.00
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