WSP Global Inc. Four small-mid sized acquisitions. Bulking up in the Nordics and strengthening Canada HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin.
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1 Title: WSP Global Inc. - WSP (T) $39.31 Price: $39.31 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: $50.00 Headline: Bulking up in the Nordics and strengthening Canada WSP (T) $39.31 Stock Rating: Outperform Target: $50.00 Risk Rating: Average Est. Total Return 31.0% Stock Data: 52-w eek range $ $45.50 Bloomberg/Reuters: Canada WSP CN / WSP Shares Outstanding (mln) 89.6 Market Capitalization (mln)(cdn$) $3 523 (Year-End Dec 31) 2014a 2015e 2016e Net Revenue (mln) $ $ $ Adj. EBITDA (mln) $253.5 $433.2 $481.2 Adj. EBITDA Margin 10.8% 9.8% 10.2% Adj. EPS (fd) $1.83 $2.14 $2.50 P/E 21.5x 18.4x 15.7x EV/EBITDA x 10.2x 9.2x 1. Using current EV. Financial Data: As at March 31, 2015 (Q1 2015) Net Debt (mln) $881.5 Net Debt / EBITDA (Pro forma LTM) 2.2x Dividend per Share (annualized) $1.50 Dividend Yield 3.8% Industry Rating: Overweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) Company Profile: WSP is a leading engineering services firm providing private and public-sector clients with a full range of professional consulting services through all project phases, including planning, design, construction, maintenance. July 1, 2015 WSP Global Inc. Four small-mid sized acquisitions The NBF Daily Bulletin Construction & Engineering Bulking up in the Nordics and strengthening Canada HIGHLIGHTS Acquisition of Faveo, FLK, Vicicom and Levelton WSP acquired Faveo, a leading project management firm focusing on infrastructure and energy based in Norway and Sweden with 400 employees. In addition, WSP closed the acquisitions of Sweden-based FLK (50 employees) and Vicicom (35 employees) as well as Western Canada-based Environmental service provider Levelton (215 employees). We believe a 6x EBITDA multiple would be warranted for these small-mid sized transactions which results in an estimated transaction value of $100 million funded with cash on hand. Four acquisitions generating ~$130 million in revenues Driven by its expertise on the project management side (14% EBITDA margin), we believe Faveo generates ~$80 million (NOK 500 million) in revenues driven by $200K per employee and $11 million in EBITDA. As for FLK and Vicicom, we estimate revenues closer to $18 million and EBITDA of $2.5 million. Finally, for Levelton, we calculate revenues of $30 million and EBITDA of $3.5 million driven by $140K per employee (12% EBITDA margin). WSP now a stronger player in Scandinavia These four acquisitions increase WSP s total workforce by roughly 2.3%. While today s announcements are not necessarily material in terms of size, they strengthen WSP s presence in Canada and Sweden while providing an entry into the Norwegian market. WSP now has 3,800 employees in the Nordic countries. Recall that WSP s strategic plan calls for 5,000 employees in that region. Attractive entry point; Maintain $50 target and Outperform Our updated estimates account for the firm s latest M&A activity and recent FX fluctuations while our $50 target (10x 2016e EV/EBITDA; unchanged) remains unchanged. Stock Performance Leon Aghazarian, M.Sc. - (514) leon.aghazarian@nbc.ca Associate: Frederic Tremblay, M.Sc., CFA - (514) frederic.tremblay@nbc.ca
2 Page 2 Exhibit 1: Revised Estimates ($mln) NBF ESTIMATES 2015e 2016e New Old New Old Total Net Revenues $ $ $ $ Total EBITDA $433.2 $424.8 $481.2 $463.0 EBITDA margin 9.8% 9.7% 10.2% 10.0% Adjusted EPS (fd) $2.14 $2.08 $2.50 $2.38 Source: NBF WSP SUMMARY FORECAST ($mln) 2014a Q1/15a Q2/15e Q3/15e Q4/15e 2015e 2016e Net Revenues Canada $689.1 $173.3 $211.6 $222.0 $216.7 $823.7 $866.7 Americas $378.0 $302.6 $333.9 $352.9 $330.5 $ $ EMEIA $ $396.4 $391.5 $411.3 $441.5 $ $ APAC $198.3 $152.5 $160.0 $165.0 $159.3 $636.7 $662.2 Total Revenues $ $ $ $ $ $ $ EBITDA Canada $97.5 $17.1 $27.5 $35.5 $27.1 $107.2 $114.1 Americas $47.1 $30.7 $41.7 $47.6 $41.3 $161.4 $170.6 EMEIA $117.9 $41.5 $37.2 $40.3 $43.3 $162.3 $193.7 APAC $13.0 $8.0 $9.6 $16.5 $17.5 $51.6 $55.0 Corporate Costs ($22.0) ($12.0) ($12.1) ($12.7) ($12.6) ($49.4) ($52.1) Total EBITDA $253.5 $85.3 $104.0 $127.3 $116.6 $433.2 $481.2 EBITDA margin 10.8% 8.3% 9.5% 11.1% 10.2% 9.8% 10.2% Adjusted EPS (fd) $1.83 $0.36 $0.50 $0.68 $0.59 $2.14 $2.50 Source: Company reports, NBF Exhibit 2: Acquisition Table WSP ACQUISITION SUMMARY Date Firm Amount ($mln) Employees Region Market Jul-15 Levelton $ BC & Alberta Environment Jun-15 Faveo $ Norway & Sweden Infrastructure & Energy Jun-15 FLK $9 50 Sweden Mechanical engineering Jun-15 Vicicom $6 35 Sweden Telecommunications Apr-15 SPL Consultants $ Ontario Environment, geotechnical and buildings Dec-14 Dessau (Colombian subsidiary) $ Colombia Transportation and Oil & Gas Nov-14 CCRD $ U.S. Buildings Oct-14 Parsons Brinckerhoff $ Global (47% U.S.) Diversified (60% transportation) Jun-14 WINWARD $14 50 Australia Buildings (Structure services) Apr-14 TPS $ France Buildings and Infrastructure Apr-14 Focus $ Canada Oil & Gas Highlighted amounts represent NBF estimates Source: Company reports, NBF
3 Page 3 Exhibit 3: Peer Group Valuation ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION COMPARABLES Mkt Cap Current Div Sales (mm) EBITDA margin EV EV/EBITDA P/E Ticker (mm) Price Yield FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (mm) FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 Integrated E&C companies SNC-Lavalin Group Inc SNC-T $6 384 $ % $9 712 $ % 6.9% $ x 9.2x 16.7x 14.7x Aecom ACM-US $4 974 $ % $ $ % 6.2% $ x 7.8x 10.2x 9.6x Amec Foster Wheeler PLC AMFW-LN % % 8.3% x 8.7x 10.8x 10.1x Chicago Bridge & Iron Company CBI-US $5 438 $ % $ $ % 9.0% $ x 5.9x 8.8x 8.9x Fluor Corp FLR-US $7 770 $ % $ $ % 6.0% $ x 5.4x 12.0x 11.8x Jacobs Engineering Group Inc JEC-US $5 101 $ % $ $ % 6.2% $ x 7.0x 13.7x 12.5x KBR Inc KBR-US $2 810 $ % $5 543 $ % 6.5% $ x 6.1x 16.5x 15.0x WorleyParsons Ltd WOR-AU $2 544 $ % $6 922 $ % 7.4% $ x 7.4x 12.7x 13.1x Average 2.2% 6.8% 7.1% 7.3x 7.1x 12.6x 12.0x Construction companies Aecon Group Inc ARE-T $720 $ % $2 652 $ % 5.9% $ x 5.8x 13.4x 18.7x Stuart Olson Inc SOX-T $191 $ % $1 335 $ % 4.1% $ x 5.2x 10.5x 5.9x Bird Construction Inc BDT-T $474 $ % $1 378 $ % 4.0% $ x 6.6x 15.0x 16.3x EMCOR Group Inc EME-N $2 995 $ % $6 624 $ % 5.9% $ x 7.1x 17.4x 15.0x Granite Construction Inc GVA-N $1 397 $ % $2 493 $ % 8.0% $ x 5.8x 20.3x 15.1x Quanta Services Inc PWR-N $5 995 $ % $8 387 $ % 10.5% $ x 6.4x 14.3x 12.3x North American Energy Partners NOA-T $105 $ % $367 $ % 13.7% $ x 3.6x N/A 24.0x MasTec Inc MTZ-N $1 627 $ % $4 423 $ % 10.1% $ x 5.5x 14.1x 10.5x Tutor Perini Corp TPC-N $1 057 $ % $5 147 $ % 5.9% $ x 5.5x 9.4x 7.2x Average 2.4% 7.5% 7.6% 6.4x 5.8x 13.9x 13.3x Design companies Stantec Inc STN-T $3 429 $ % $2 510 $ % 14.7% $ x 9.5x 17.4x 15.1x WSP Global Inc WSP-T $3 523 $ % $4 421 $ % 10.2% $ x 9.2x 18.4x 15.7x AF AB AF'B-SK kr kr % kr kr % 9.9% kr x 8.5x 14.7x 13.5x Arcadis NV ARCAD-AE % % 9.2% x 8.4x 12.9x 11.1x SWECO AB SWEC'B-SK kr kr % kr kr % 10.0% kr x 8.0x 15.8x 13.8x Tetra Tech Inc TTEK-US $1 545 $ % $1 802 $ % 11.9% $ x 7.5x 15.5x 13.8x WS ATKINS PLC ATK-LN % % 9.2% x 7.8x 14.9x 14.0x Average 2.7% 10.5% 10.7% 9.1x 8.1x 14.7x 13.1x Peer Group Average 2.4% 8.1% 8.3% 7.5x 6.9x 14.1x 12.8x Note: Shaded data represents coverage by NBF and includes NBF estimates Source: Thomson ONE, Company Reports, NBF
4 Page 4 DISCLOSURES: Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each: Outperform The stock is expected to outperform the analyst s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector over the next 12 months; Underperform The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review Our analyst has withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for the company s stock; Restricted Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating a company s stock. 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5 Page 5 Additional company related disclosures for WSP Global Inc. 2 National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months. 3 National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for this issuer within the past 12 months. 4 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months. 5 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months. 7 The issuer is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within the past 12 months. 10 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication.
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