KuuHubb Inc. KUU-TSXV: C$1.50 Speculative Buy C$4.00 Target. Top Pick; Looking for the Next Moonshot After Recolor
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- Liliana Gilmore
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1 January 9, 2018 Gaming/Social Small Cap KuuHubb Inc. Top Pick; Looking for the Next Moonshot After Recolor KUU-TSXV: C$1.50 Speculative Buy C$4.00 Target Event: We are announcing KUU as one of our two top small cap picks for Q118. All figures are in US$ unless otherwise noted. Projected Total Return: 167% Investment Thesis: Recolor is a polished, high-quality digital colouring book on mobile, including 1,500+ beautiful art illustrations and unique 3D content built for ease of use and relaxation. Recolor is the number one digital colouring book application on mobile, has ~30M all-time downloads, over 200M quarterly sessions, and over 6M monthly active users (MAUs). Asia is the world s largest and fastest growing market for online games. On December 13, 2017, KUU announced that it has established operations in Tokyo, Japan as part of a global expansion strategy which will include India, Korea and China. Japan's growing mobile gaming market represents a great opportunity for KUU s flagship app, Recolor. Female mobile gaming and lifestyle app usage in Japan provides very attractive growth opportunities. Japan's mobile revenues have now surpassed the US for three years in a row despite the US having three times as many smartphone users i.e., Japan s average revenue per user (ARPU) is much higher than in the US or Europe. We believe KUU will demonstrate how powerful of a global social/lifestyle app Recolor is as it moves across Asia. KUU paid $10.5M for Recolor, which was profitable in F2016 (+$400K) and at a valuation of ~3x our F2019 EBITDA. Shareholder value will be created through acquisitions of proven, under-appreciated assets with vast long-term global potential. Focus Points: Experienced Team. KuuHubb s co-founder and CEO, Jouni Keränen, has over 18 years of international business and management experience, with particular experience and in-depth knowledge of the online games industry and market in China and elsewhere in Asia, which are a particular area of focus for KuuHubb in its business plans. Focus on Asian Markets. Asia is the world s largest and fastest growing market for mobile online games. Jouni Keränen has extensive experience and expertise in the online games marketplace in Asia. He and his team also have a wide range of strategic relationships that KuuHubb believes will facilitate the introduction of its games in Asia and future growth in this key market. Recolor. Recolor is the number one digital colouring book application on mobile, has ~30M all-time downloads, over 200M quarterly sessions, and over 6M MAUs. Upside Potential. We believe there is plenty of upside in our estimates as KUU expands across geographies and into adjacent lifestyle categories (like interior design, fashion and jewelry, home and garden, etc). We note that the Global Social App comparables are trading on average (excl. FB) at a multiple of $58/MAU vs KUU at $8/MAU. Applying this multiple to KUU s 6.3M MAU would value KUU at $347M (or C$ /shr). Source: Consensus Data - FactSet, Historicals- Company Filings, Forecasts/Estimates-Echelon Wealth Partners estimates Gianluca Tucci gtucci@echelonpartners.com Page 1 of 5
2 Price (C$) Volume (M) KuuHubb Inc. Tear Sheet (KUU - TSXV, SPEC BUY, C$4.00 PT) $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Jan/17 Apr/17 Jul/17 Oct/ Company Description Consensus Current Return Kuuhubb is a company active in the digital space that focuses mainly on Rating: Spec Buy lifestyle and mobile video game applications. Its strategy is to create Target: % sustainable shareholder value through acquisitions of proven, yet Median: % underappreciated, assets with robust long-term growth potential. High: % Headquartered in Helsinki, Finland, the Company has a global presence with Low: % a strong focus on developing U.S. brand collaborations and Asian partnerships. Consensus Distribution Buy 2 Hold - Sell - # of Ratings 2 Financial Summary/Key Metrics FQ118 FQ218E FQ318E FQ418E F2018E F2019E F2020E F2021E Top Inst. Ownership % Held Total Revenue #N/A #N/A Fidelity (Canada) Asset Mana 15.0% Growth y/y 43% 30% 25% EBITDA #N/A #N/A (2.2) (0.8) (0.6) (0.1) (3.7) Growth y/y % 113.1% 79.7% Consensus Diluted EPS #N/A #N/A (0.05) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.07) Growth y/y 122.4% 82.5% Net Debt #N/A #N/A (9.8) (20.8) Capex #N/A #N/A Key Statistics Value 52 Wk High Wk Low 0.75 YTD Chg. -1% Balance Sheet FQ118 FQ218E FQ318E FQ418E F2018E F2019E F2020E F2021E 1 Yr. Chg. 86% Cash #N/A #N/A Beta Trade & Other Receivables #N/A #N/A Market Cap 52 Total Current Assets #N/A #N/A EV 63 Shares Outstanding (M) 35 Total Assets #N/A #N/A LTM Dividend - Dividend Yield 0.0% Deferred Revenue #N/A #N/A Trade & Other Payables #N/A #N/A Valuation 2018E 2019E Total Current Liabilities #N/A #N/A EV/Rev Total Liabilities #N/A #N/A EV/EBITDA (17.2) 18.3 Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equit #N/A #N/A P/E (21.1) 32.7 Comparables Return Rev EBITDA EPS Price Target Div Yield Multiples Analysis 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year KUU-CA % -1% -16% -12% -1% 86% NM 25 NM (3) NM (0.07) FB % 6% 8% 9% 6% 55% 40,222 53,663 26,328 32, SCR-CA % -3% 11% -3% -3% NM (5) (0.2) (0.02) (0.01) SNAP % -1% -3% 0% -1% NM 797 1,305 (755) (700) (3.00) (1.10) TWTR % 1% 17% 33% 1% 42% 2,394 2, KR 239, % -3% 20% 110% -3% NM Comparables EV FCF Yield EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E Multiples Analysis KUU-CA 51 NM NM NM 2.0 NM NM NM NM FB 518, % 2.6% SCR-CA 26 NM NM NM NM NM NM SNAP 15,054 NM NM NM NM NM NM TWTR 15,625 NM NM KR 1,918 NM NM Source: Consensus Data - FactSet, Historicals- Company Filings, Forecasts/Estimates-Echelon Wealth Partners estimates Page 2 of 5
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U.S. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States. The firm that prepared this report may not be subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. U.K. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ECHELON WEALTH PARTNERS INC. IS NOT SUBJECT TO U.K. RULES WITH REGARD TO THE PREPARATION OF RESEARCH REPORTS AND THE INDEPENDENCE OF ANALYSTS. The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of, and may only be issued or passed onto persons described in part VI of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of Echelon Wealth Partners. ANALYST CERTIFICATION Company: KuuHubb Inc. KUU:TSXV I, Ralph Garcea, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Is this an issuer related or industry related publication? Does the Analyst or any member of the Analyst s household have a financial interest in the securities of the subject issuer? If : 1) Is it a long or short position? position; and, 2) What type of security is it? ne. Does the Analyst or household member serve as a Director or Officer or Advisory Board Member of the issuer? Does Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. or the Analyst have any actual material conflicts of interest with the issuer? Does Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. and/or one or more entities affiliated with Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. beneficially own common shares (or any other class of common equity securities) of this issuer which constitutes more than 1% of the presently issued and outstanding shares of the issuer? During the last 12 months, has Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. provided financial advice to and/or, either on its own or as a syndicate member, participated in a public offering, or private placement of securities of this issuer? During the last 12 months, has Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. received compensation for having provided investment banking or related services to this Issuer? Has the Analyst had an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? Helsinki head office Sept Has any Analyst, Partner, Director or Officer been compensated for travel expenses incurred as a result of an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? Has the Analyst received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months? Is Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. a market maker in the issuer s securities at the date of this report? Issuer Page 3 of 5
4 RATING DEFINITIONS Buy Speculative Buy Hold Sell The security represents attractive relative value and is expected to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 12 month time horizon. The security is considered a BUY but in the analyst s opinion possesses certain operational and/or financial risks that are higher than average. The security represents fair value and no material appreciation is expected over the next month time horizon. The security represents poor value and is expected to depreciate over the next 12 month time horizon. Under Review Tender Dropped Coverage While not a rating, this designates the existing rating and/or forecasts are subject to specific review usually due to a material event or share price move. Echelon Wealth Partners recommends that investors tender to an existing public offer for the securities in the absence of a superior competing offer. Applies to former coverage names where a current analyst has dropped coverage. Echelon Wealth Partners will provide notice to investors whenever coverage of an issuer is dropped. RATINGS DISTRIBUTION Recommendation Hierarchy Buy Speculative Buy Hold Sell Under Review Restricted Tender Number of recommendations % of Total (excluding Restricted) 40% 46% 13% 1% 1% Number of investment banking relationships % of Total (excluding Restricted) 24% 71% 3% 3% 0% PRICE CHART, RATING & PRICE TARGET HISTORY $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 KuuHubb Inc. (TSXV:KUU) Date Target (C$) Rating 19-Oct Spec Buy Price Target (C$) Coverage initiated: 10/19/2017 Data sourced from FactSet Page 4 of 5
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