Detour Gold Corporation (DGC-T)

Transcription

1 Detour Gold Corporation (DGC-T) Q4 Operating Results and 2015 Guidance January 16, 2015 Michael Curran, CFA (416) Detour Gold s focus is the continuing ramp up of its 100%-owned Detour Lake mine in northern Ontario to become a +600Koz/yr producer, and potentially Canada s largest gold mine. Q4/14 Operating Results: the Detour Lake mine yielded just under 117Koz of gold, which was just shy of our 121Koz estimate. Total cash costs estimated at US$875/oz were better than our US$945/oz estimate. Daily throughput was just over 51Ktpd, with the mill achieving the design rate of 55Ktpd the majority of days in the quarter Operating Guidance: the company is forecasting gold production in the range 475K-525K oz (slightly below our 530Koz estimate), at an average total cash cost in the range US$780-US$850/oz (better than our US$872/oz estimate). AISC is forecast to be within the range of US$1,050-US$1,150/oz (in line with other North American gold producers). Higher grade ore scheduled for late in the year should result in a step up to gold production and significantly lower total cash costs (sub-us$700/oz) in Q4/15. Sustaining capital for the year is forecast to be US$90-$100 million, and capitalized stripping in the range US$20-US$25 million. Winter Drilling: the company plans to begin a $2 million regional exploration programme in Q1/15, focusing on the depth extension of high-grade gold mineralization encountered last year from Zone 58 on the Lower Detour property. Valuation Review: we have updated our DCF model, C$:US$ assumptions, and valuation multiples for Detour Gold. As a result, our 12-month target price increases from C$12.50 to C$15.00/sh. Update HOLD (unch.) $15.00 (prev. $12.50) Previous Close C$ month Target Price C$ Potential Return 22.0% Dividend Yield 0.0% 52 Week Price Range $5.32-$15.62 Estimates (US$MM, except per unit) FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e Revenue $153.9 $534.6 $635.0 $771.0 Net income -$12.3 -$88.3 $15.1 $27.8 Cashflow -$28.6 $124.6 $157.2 $206.0 Shares O/S, wgt. avg EPS (operating) -$0.50 -$0.36 $0.14 $0.20 CFPS -$0.22 $0.82 $0.96 $1.24 Valuation P/E n/a n/a 89.1x 62.3x P/CF n/a 15.1x 12.8x 9.9x NAV $19.14 $22.33 $22.85 P/NAV 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x Financials MM Shares Outstanding Mgt/Insiders 1% (C$MM) Market Capitalization $1,941 LT Debt (corporate) $564 Working Capital $175 Enterprise Value $2,329 Fiscal Year End December 31 Reserves / Resources 2P Reserves 15.5 MMoz M+I Resources 4.9 MMoz Total Resources (M+I+I) 20.9 MMoz Quarterly Estimates (US$/sh) Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 EPS (operating) -$0.10 -$0.07 -$0.07 -$0.26 CFPS -$0.10 -$0.07 -$0.05 -$0.02 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14e EPS (operating) -$0.13 -$0.11 -$0.10 -$0.02 CFPS $0.12 $0.25 $0.20 $0.23 Detour Gold is a Canadian gold mining company focused on the successful ramp up of the 100%-owned Detour Lake gold project in northern Ontario, which is poised to become the largest operating gold mine in Canada. All prices in US$ unless otherwise indicated Company at a Glance Stock Performance Detour Gold Corporation (DGC-CA) Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Volume Detour Gold Corporation Average Volume - DGC-CA Source: FactSet Prices Beacon Securities Ltd. 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H

2 Investment Thesis 2015 A Year For Stabilization In our view, management has the plan for its Detour Lake mine to achieve full design capacity over the next few quarters, and begin generating meaningful cash flow when higher-grade ore is scheduled to be accessed in the pit in Q4/15. However, until we have greater confidence in achieving lower operating costs, a gold price recovery, or that the company could become a takeover candidate for larger gold producers, we are maintaining our HOLD rating on Detour Gold shares. Fig 1 Q4/14 Operating Results and 2015 Guidance: Detour Gold Corp. Beacon Beacon Beacon Q3/14A Q4/14E Q4/14A 2014E 2014A 2015E 2015E Gold production (oz) 115, , , , , , K Gold sold (oz) 106, , , , , ,406 Total Cash Costs (US$/oz) $941 $884 $875 $931 $930 $881 $780-$850 Sustaining Capex (US$MM) $90 $90-$100 Capitalized Stripping (US$MM) $48 $20-$25 Source: Company press release and Beacon Securities estimates Valuation Methodology Our favored valuation method for precious metals producers is a price-tonet-asset-value (P/NAV) multiple based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model constructed using our estimates of the parameters of existing or potential mining operations. We employ a US$1,500/oz long-term gold price assumption, but have lower short-term gold price forecasts including US$1,300/oz for 2015, US$1,350/oz for 2016, and US$1,400/oz for Future year cash flows are then discounted using a base rate of 5%, to which a risk premium is added, depending on the overall political risk the company s assets are exposed to. Detour s Ontario assets are considered to be firmly among the low risk group (no premium). Fig 2 Net Asset Value Breakdown: Detour Gold Corp. Discount Rate Ownership Value Per Share (C$/sh) C$MM FY15e FY16e FY17e Detour Lake (Ontario) 5.0% 100% $3,584 $18.86 $22.39 $22.39 Exploration potential $25 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 OPERATING ASSETS $3,609 $19.03 $22.56 $22.56 Working Capital $158 $0.83 $0.39 $0.53 LT Debt (non-debenture) ($137) ($0.72) ($0.62) ($0.24) CORPORATE ASSETS $21 $0.11 ($0.23) $0.29 NET ASSET VALUE $3,630 $19.14 $22.33 $22.85 Source: Beacon Securities estimates January 16, 2015 Page 2 Michael Curran mcurran@beaconsecurities.ca

3 In Fig. 2 we provide forward-looking NAV/sh estimates to show how the company s NAV is forecast to change over the next few years. For midsized gold producers (annual gold output between 250Koz and 1.5Moz), we employ a target range of x P/NAV. For Detour, we employ a target P/NAV multiple of 1.0x (previously 0.95x). Applying the target multiple on our 2015 NAV estimate suggests a fair value of C$19.00/sh for Detour Gold. On a forward-looking P/CF multiple basis, we forecast CFPS of $0.96/sh in Applying our target multiple of 10.0x P/CF (previously 9.5x), which is within our 5.0x-12.5x target range for mid-sized gold producers, suggests a fair value of C$11.00/sh. Using the valuation methods described above, and a 50/50 blend of fair values, generates our 12-month target price of C$15.00 per DGC share. Fig 3 Current Open Pit: Detour Lake Mine Source: Company website January 16, 2015 Page 3 Michael Curran mcurran@beaconsecurities.ca

4 Appendix : Summary Financials Detour Gold Corporation Symbol DGC-TSX Last Share Price C$ Stock Rating HOLD Shares Outstanding Price Target C$ Market Capz'n (C$MM) 1,941 All US$ unless noted For Fiscal Year Ended Dec 31 Beacon Securities Limited Michael Curran, CFA (416) INCOME STATEMENT FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e RATIO ANALYSIS FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e Revenues $MM Dividend Paid $/sh $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Operating Costs $MM Dividend Yield % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EBITDA $MM LTD/(Total Cap) % 22.3% 21.0% 19.6% 17.2% DD&A $MM EV / EBITDA 66.1x 25.7x 13.0x 10.1x EBIT $MM (1.7) (54.3) PRICES/EXCHANGE RATES FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e Interest Expense $MM Spot Gold Price $/oz 1,404 1,275 1,300 1,350 EBT $MM (54.5) (47.3) Realized Gold Price $/oz 1,283 1,275 1,300 1,350 Non-Recurring Items/Other $MM (42.2) US$:C$ exchange Taxes/Recovery $MM Net Income (operating) $MM (12.3) (88.3) MINE/EQUITY PRODUCTION FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e Shares o/s $MM Gold Production 000 oz EPS (adjusted) $/sh ($0.50) ($0.36) $0.14 $0.20 Total Cash Costs $/oz 1, P/E Multiple x n.m. n.m. 89.1x 62.3x All-in Sustaining Costs $/oz 1,724 1,088 1,025 1,031 Cash Flow (adjusted) $MM (28.6) Gold Production (oz) Total Cash Costs (US$/oz) CFPS $/sh ($0.22) $0.82 $0.96 $ ,000 $1,200 P/CF Multiple x n.m. 15.1x 12.8x 9.9x SCFP FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e 700,000 $1,100 Cash Flows from Operations Net Income $MM (12.3) (88.3) ,000 $1,000 DD&A $MM Deferred Taxes $MM ,000 $900 Non Recurring/Other $MM (46.4) Working Cap. Changes $MM ,000 $800 Net Operating Cash Flow Cash Flows From Investing Capital Expenditure (net) $MM (386.9) (131.0) (112.5) (120.0) 300,000 $700 Acquis./Investments $MM ,000 $600 Other $MM Net Investing Cash Flow (346.2) (131.0) (112.5) (120.0) 100,000 $500 Cash Flows From Financing Equity Issues (net of costs) $MM $ E 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Borrowings $MM 48.7 (22.0) (34.7) (62.7) Dividends Paid & Other $MM RESERVES / RESOURCES Net Financing Cash Flow $MM (34.7) (62.7) Gold Reserves MMoz 15.5 Net Inc/Dec (incl FX) $MM (109.7) AMC/oz $/oz 122 Cash at End of Year $MM Total Gold Resources MMoz 20.9 BALANCE SHEET FY13 FY14e FY15e FY16e AMC/oz $/oz 90 Cash & Equivalents $MM AMC = Market Cap + LTD - Working Capital Total Current Assets $MM Total Resources = measured, indicated, and inferred PP&E & Mining Interests $MM 2, , , ,301.2 NET ASSET VALUE (NAV) E Other $MM Discount Status Own'ship C$MM C$/Sh %NAV Total Assets $MM 2, , , ,505.0 Detour Lake 7.0% mine 100% $3, % Current Liabilities $MM Exploration $ % Long Term Debt $MM Operating NAV $3,609 $ % Other Long Term Liabilities $MM Working Capital $158 $0.83 4% Total Liabilities $MM LT Debt ($137) ($0.72) -4% S/Holder Equity $MM 1, , , ,937.9 NAV $3,630 $19.14 Total Liab. & S/Holder Equity $MM 2, , , ,505.0 Current P/NAV 0.6x Working Capital $MM Source: Company reports, Beacon Securities estimates January 16, 2015 Page 4 Michael Curran mcurran@beaconsecurities.ca

5 Disclosure Requirements Does Beacon, or its affiliates or analysts collectively, beneficially own 1% or more of any class of the issuer's equity securities? Yes No Does the analyst who prepared this research report have a position, either long or short, in any of the issuer s securities? Yes No Does Beacon Securities beneficially own more than 1% of equity securities of the issuer? Yes No Has any director, partner, or officer of Beacon Securities, or the analyst involved in the preparation of the research report, received remuneration for any services provided to the securities issuer during the preceding 12 months? Yes No Has Beacon Securities performed investment banking services in the past 12 months and received compensation for investment banking services for this issuer in the past 12 months? Yes No Was the analyst who prepared this research report compensated from revenues generated solely by the Beacon Securities Investment Banking Department? Yes No Does any director, officer, or employee of Beacon Securities serve as a director, officer, or in any advisory capacity to the issuer? Yes No Are there any material conflicts of interest with Beacon Securities or the analyst who prepared the report and the issuer? Yes No Is Beacon Securities a market maker in the equity of the issuer? Yes No Has the analyst visited the head office of the issuer and viewed its operations in a limited context? Yes No Did the issuer pay for or reimburse the analyst for the travel expenses? Yes No All information contained herein has been collected and compiled by Beacon Securities Limited, an independently owned and operated member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC). All facts and statistical data have been obtained or ascertained from sources, which we believe to be reliable, but are not warranted as accurate or complete. All projections and estimates are the expressed opinion of Beacon Securities Limited, and are subject to change without notice. Beacon Securities Limited takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions contained herein, and accepts no legal responsibility from any losses resulting from investment decisions based on the content of this report. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities discussed herein. Based on their volatility, income structure, or eligibility for sale, the securities mentioned herein may not be suitable or available for all investors in all countries. As at December 31, 2014 # Stocks Distribution BUY 38 81% BUY Total 12-month return expected to be >15% Speculative BUY 4 9% Speculative BUY Potential total 12-month return is high (>15%) but given elevated risk, investment could result in a material loss HOLD 4 9% HOLD Total 12-month return expected to be between 0% and 15% SELL 0 0% SELL Total 12-month return expected to be negative Under Review 1 2% Total % Dissemination Beacon Securities distributes its research products simultaneously, via , to its authorized client base. All research is then available on via login and password. Analyst Certification The Beacon Securities Analyst named on the report hereby certifies that the recommendations and/or opinions expressed herein accurately reflect such research analyst s personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of the report; or any other companies mentioned in the report that are also covered by the named analyst. In addition, no part of the research analyst s compensation is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report. Beacon Securities Ltd. 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H