SolGold Plc (TSX:SOLG; LON:SOLG) Alpala Exceeds Expectations. Resource Update. Highlights:
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- Jonathan Cole
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1 RCKS Talk Team, SolGold Plc (TSX:SOLG; LON:SOLG) Alpala Exceeds Expectations Resource Update (Currency is C$ unless noted otherwise) Closing Price ($/sh) $ Week Low / High ($/sh) Net Asset Value Per Share ($/sh) $0.32 / $0.71 $1.47 P/NAV 0.44x CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted Shares Outstanding (M) 1, ,919.9 Market Capitalization ($M) $1,247.9 Enterprise Value ($M) $1,103.1 Estimated Cash Balance Cash ($M) $144.8 Total Debt ($M) $0.0 STOCK CHART $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $ Nov Feb May Aug-18 RELATIVE PERFORMANCE 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 22-Nov Feb May Aug-18 TSX:SOLG NET ASSET VALUE ($M) ($/Sh) Cascabel, Ecuador (85% Ownership) $6,175.6 $2.40 Taxes ($3,352.5) ($1.31) Other Assets $187.5 $0.07 Corporate adjustments $766.2 $0.30 Total NAV $3,776.7 $1.47 RELATIVE VALUATION EV/lb CuEq P/NAV Explorer/Developer Peers* US$ x SolGold plc (Consensus) US$ x SolGold plc (RCKS Est.) US$ x *Capital IQ Consensus MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS Management (3.97%), Newcrest Mining Limited (13.43%), DGR Global Limited (11.11%), BHP Billiton Group (11.06%), Cornerstone Capital Resour. (9.26%), Tenstar Trading Limited (6.47%), BlackRock, Inc. (5.74%) DISCLOSURE CODE: (Please refer to the disclosures listed on the back page) Source: RCKS estimates, Company Information, Capital IQ SNL Base Metals Index 1, 2, 3, 4 Company Description SolGold plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Ecuador, Australia, and Solomon Islands. The company primarily explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. Its flagship project is the Cascabel project that covers an area of approximately 50 square kilometers located in Quito, Ecuador. The company was formerly known as Solomon Gold plc and changed its name to SolGold plc in May SolGold plc was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Brisbane, Australia Impact: Positive SolGold has exceeded expectations with its recent resource update for its Alpala deposit in Ecuador. The expansion of the high-grade core has exceeded our previous estimates, resulting in an increase to our NAVPS estimate. This resource update paves the way for company to publish initial economics on this world class project in early 2019E. We continue to view Alpala and the wider Cascabel project as a world-class deposit with scale potential that separates it from the pack. Highlights: Expansion of the high-grade core exceeds expectation, benefits our estimates. Besides our expectation of a doubling of the Alpala resource, we expected a 50% increase in the highgrade core at Alpala Central (Figure 2). High-grade core results beat our estimates by 17% on tonnes, 17% on grade and 33% on contained metal. In our view, project economics are driven by the high-grade core, and this growth has boosted our estimates. A significant increase in contained CuEq. Using the 0.3% CuEq cut-off, contained copper increases by 77%, while grades remained relatively consistent. Importantly, there was a significant increase in Indicated tonnes both overall and for the high-grade core, improving our confidence in the potential of this deposit (Figure 1). It is likely that the most recent strategic investment in to Solgold by BHP anticipated this higher-grade core improvement. Better grades, better payback. To remain conservative, we have modelled the continuous portion of the high-grade core (mined years 1-7) to be 180Mt grading 1.85% CuEq (was 180Mt grading 1.67% CuEq), which has allowed for a better payback, reflected in an increase in the project IRR to 24% (was 20%). The increase in grade has allowed for a 19% increase in the projects after-tax NPV to US$2.82B (was US$2.38B). Valuation: Resource update drives increase in our estimates. By accounting for the recent resource update at Alpala, we have increased our NAVPS for SolGold to C$1.47/sh (was C$1.30/sh). SolGold trades at a slight premium to peers (0.44x NAV vs peers 0.36x) and we believe a further premium is warranted given the scarcity and scale of Cascabel and that willing suitors are ready to pounce. Upcoming catalysts: 1) Ongoing exploration and 2) Maiden PEA (Q1/19). Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EDT (unless otherwise noted). All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Disclaimer and Applicable Disclosures, see the end of this report
2 Detailed comments: A 77% increase in contained CuEq. As a result of this resource update, we have increased our mineable resource to 1.99Bt grading 0.45% Cu and 0.32g/t Au (0.66% CuEq) for 20.1Blb Cu and 20.3Moz (28.9Blb CuEq), which represents an 84% increase in tonnage, 3% decrease in grade and a 77% increase in contained metal on a copper equivalent basis (Figure 1). We must note that the global resource is now 83% indicated and 17% inferred (was 46% indicated and 54% inferred), which should assist the Company s progression to PEA and FS. We note that for our estimates, we continue to use the 0.3% CuEq cut-off grade, which we used for our initial estimates. This is in line with other similar scale block cave projects. Using the 0.3% CuEq cut-off, Alpala's 1.99Bt grading 0.66% CuEq makes it a world-class copper project and is among the world s largest undeveloped copper projects (Figure 6). Figure 1: Resource comparison 0.3% CuEq cut-off Classification Tonnage (Mt) Cu (%) Source: RCKS Estimates, Company Reports Au (g/t) CuEq (%) Cu (Mt) Au (Moz) CuEq (Mt) RCKS Resource Estimate Mineable Resource Updated Minerals Resource Estimate Indicated Inferred Total Previous Mineral Resource Estimate Indicated Inferred Total Percent Increase Infdicated 249% -2% -8% -9% 222% 197% 221% Inferred -25% -15% -47% -25% -41% -60% -45% Total 84% 3% -6% -3% 75% 65% 77% Figure 2: Resource comparison 1.1% CuEq Classification Tonnage Cu Au CuEq Cu Au CuEq (Mt) (%) (g/t) (%) (Mt) (Moz) (Mt) RCKS Resource Estimate Mineable Resource Updated Minerals Resource Estimate Indicated Inferred Total Previous Mineral Resource Estimate Indicated Inferred Total Percent Increase Infdicated 186% 3% 5% 11% 214% 211% 225% Inferred -80% -31% -46% -33% -80% -95% -88% Total 75% 1% 2% 8% 92% 87% 100% Source: RCKS Estimates, Company Reports 2
3 Expansion of the high-grade core exceeds expectations. Besides our expectation of a doubling of the Alpala resource, we expected a 50% increase in the high-grade core at Alpala Central (Figure 1) from 120Mt grading 1.8% CuEq to 180Mt grading 1.67% CuEq with a cut-off of 1.1% CuEq. We were pleasantly surprised to see that SolGold has increased its high-grade core (1.1% CuEq cutoff) to 210Mt grading 1.11% Cu and 1.33g/t Au (1.95% CuEq) for 5.1Blb Cu and 8.8Moz (8.8Blb CuEq), which represents a 100% increase in contained metal on a copper equivalent basis. This beat our estimates by 17% on tonnes, 17% on grade and 33% on contained metal (Figure 2). We must note that the high-grade core is now 97% indicated and 3% inferred (was 60% indicated and 40% inferred), which improves our level of confidence in the potential of this deposit. As we expect the company to mine the high-grade core early in the mine life, the high-grade core is critical for the economics of the project to justify the significant US$2.6B in initial capex and US$1.5B in expansion capex for development of the 100ktpd block cave operation. Figure 3: Section view through the Alpala deposit, looking east 3
4 MM lb CuEq Total Cash Cost (US$/lb Cu) Alpala Exceeds Expectations Figure 4: Production profile comparison (old vs new) 1,200 $2.0 1,000 $ $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 ($0.5) 200 ($1.0) E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E CuEq Production (MM lb) - Previous Estimates Total Cash Cost (US$/lb Cu) - Current Estimates CuEq Production (MM lb) - Current Estimates Better grades, better payback. We have modified the global resource in our Cascabel model to be 1.99Bt grading 0.65% CuEq (was 2.16Bt grading 0.65% CuEq). We also have incorporated the new high-grade core into our estimates by making the assumption that a maximum of 85% of the highgrade core can be mined continuously in years 1-7, which is supported visually in Figure 3. Therefore, to remain conservative, we have modelled the continuous portion of the high-grade core to be 180Mt grading 1.85% CuEq (was 180Mt grading 1.67% CuEq). The increase in grade in the early years allow for a better payback for the company s initial and expansion capex as operations ramp up from 50ktpd to 100ktpd, which is reflected in an increase in the project IRR to 24% (was 20%). The increase in grade has allowed for a 19% increase in the projects after-tax NPV to US$2.82B (was US$2.38B). Following the extraction of the high-grade core, we forecast 1,774Mt averaging 0.54% CuEq (was 1,980Mt grading 0.56% CuEq) to be mined from years 7-57, which has resulted in a slight increase in our LOM cash cost to US$ 1.49/lb (was US$ 1.35/lb) (Figure 4 & 5). ($1.5) Total Cash Cost (US$/lb Cu) - Previous Estimates 4
5 Figure 5: Changes to project parameters resulting from resource update Project Parameters Units Current Previous Change RCKS Est. RCKS Est. (%) Copper Grade (%) 0.44% 0.44% 0% Gold Grade (g/t) % Copper Equivalent Grade (%) 0.65% 0.65% 0% Mineable Resource (Mt) 1,990 2,160-8% Steady State Throughput (tpd) 100, ,000 0% Mine Life (Years) % Average Annual Copper Production (Mlb Cu) % Average Annual Gold Production (koz Au) % Average Annual Copper Equivalent Production (Mlb CuEq) % Copper Cash Cost (Net of Credits) (US$/lb) $1.49 $ % Copper All-In Sustaining Cost (Net of Credits) (US$/lb) $1.65 $1.52 9% Initial Capital Cost (US$M) $2,600 $2,600 0% Expansion Capital Cost (US$M) $1,500 $1,500 0% LOM Sustaining Capital Cost (US$M) $3,115 $3,115 0% Pre-Tax 8% (US$M) $6,176 $5,547 11% Post-tax (US$M) $2,823 $2,381 19% RCKS metal prices: $1,300/oz Au, $1.20/lb Zn, $17/oz Ag, $3.00/lb Cu and $1.00/lb Pb. **RCKS discount rate: 8% Project economics driven by high-grade core. Given the significant growth of the high-grade core at Cascabel, we stress-tested our model to assess the potential economics of the project if a developer were to step in and only develop the high-grade core of the deposit. Without changing throughput, operating costs or capital costs, and increasing the cut-off grade to 1.1% CuEq so that we only model the high-grade core, a global resource of 180Mt grading 1.85% CuEq gives a NAVPS of C$1.28/sh. Although unrealistic (other project parameters would need to change), the test indicates that the project and our valuation relies heavily on the high-grade core at Alpala Central. As well, it demonstrates that there is potential for a smaller and higher-grade operation at Cascabel. 5
6 Reserves & Resources CuEq Grade (%) Alpala Exceeds Expectations Figure 6: Grade vs. Tonnage Undeveloped Copper Porphyry Projects 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Alpala (Current - HG Core) Alpala (Previous - HG Core) Resolution 1% Alpala (Previous) Alpala (Current) 0% Wafi-Golpu Cadia East Reserves & Resources Tonnage (millions) Growth does not stop here. As previously highlighted, the technical success achieved in hole 64 with 402 grading 0.65% CuEq indicates potential for a second porphyry system adjacent to Alpala. Hole 64 was drilled deep into the northwest target and intersected primary bornite mineralization, which is indicative of an additional porphyry core. Although a technical success, more drilling in this northwest sector towards Trivinio needs to be done to confirm potential scale and grade (Figure 3). We have not factored a second porphyry system into our estimates, but with 12 rigs turning (10,500m of core per month) and the company s track record so far, we can expect further resource expansion potential to continue to be highlighted to the market in ongoing news flow. 6
7 Figure 7: NAV summary Development Properties 0% 5% 8% 10% 12% Cascabel, Ecuador (85% Ownership) $28,918.1 $9,786.1 $6,175.6 $4,712.2 $3,655.8 Current Taxes ($11,364.0) ($4,787.3) ($3,352.5) ($2,728.3) ($2,256.2) Total Mine Site After-Tax NPV $17,554.1 $4,998.8 $2,823.1 $1,983.9 $1,399.6 Other Projects $187.5 $187.5 $187.5 $187.5 $187.5 Equity investments $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Other assets/liabilities $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total $187.5 $187.5 $187.5 $187.5 $187.5 Total Pre-Financing NAV (C$M) $17,741.6 $5,186.3 $3,010.6 $2,171.4 $1,587.1 Total Pre-Financing NAVPS (C$/share) $9.66 $2.82 $1.64 $1.18 $0.86 Corporate adjustments Hedge value (mark-to-market) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Corporate G&A ($145.8) ($104.3) ($87.0) ($77.7) ($69.8) Working capital (less equity investments) $120.9 $120.9 $120.9 $120.9 $120.9 Interest income net of financing expense ($743.6) ($535.6) ($444.5) ($394.1) ($350.4) Cash Flow from Financing $1,210.3 $1,208.8 $1,176.7 $1,148.0 $1,115.4 Equity value of convertible debt $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Preferred debt $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total net debt $587.6 $794.1 $853.2 $874.8 $885.9 Total Corporate Adjustments $441.8 $689.8 $766.2 $797.1 $816.1 Total Post-Financing NAV (C$M) $18,183.4 $5,876.0 $3,776.7 $2,968.5 $2,403.2 Total Post-Financing NAV (C$M) $7.08 $2.29 $1.47 $1.16 $0.94 Resource update drives increase in our estimates. The resource update confirms our view regarding resource growth at Alpala and has resulted in a 11% increase in our modelled grade for the high-grade core to 1.85% CuEq (was 1.67% CuEq), which is behind a significant increase in project economics with a new after-tax NPV of US$2.82B with a 24% IRR (was US$2.38B with a 20% IRR). Based on these estimates, we have increased our NAVPS for SolGold to C$1.47/sh (was C$1.30/sh). We believe that the PEA expected in early 2019 and ongoing exploration success are likely to drive our base case NAVPS8% to C$1.47/sh. SolGold trades at a slight premium to peers (0.44x NAV vs peers 0.36x) and we believe a further premium is warranted given the scarcity and scale of Cascabel and that willing suitors are ready to pounce. Upcoming catalysts include: 1. Ongoing exploration (Q4/18) 2. Maiden PEA (Q1/19) 3. Feasibility Study 7
8 MM lb CuEq Total Cash Cost (US$/lb CuEq) NAVPS (C$/sh) Price (C$) Volume (M) Alpala Exceeds Expectations FINANCIAL AND OPERATING SUMMARY: SOLGOLD PLC FINANCIAL DATA STOCK CHART Ticker TSX:SOLG Current Price (C$/sh) C$ Week Low / High (C$/sh) $0.32 / $0.71 Shares Outstanding (M) 1,837.0 Market Capitalization (C$M) $1,194.1 Cash & Cash Equivalents (C$M) $144.8 Total Debt (C$M) $0.0 Enterprise Value (C$M) $1,049.2 FINANCIAL DATA $0.30 Capital Structure Shares 10 Millions $0.20 Shares Outstanding Options 82.9 $ Warrants 0.0 Fully Diluted Shares $ Nov Feb May Aug-18 Ownership (October 2018) Shares O/S (M) % O/S Management % TECHNICAL ASSUMPTIONS Newcrest Mining Limited % 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E DGR Global Limited % Gold Price (US$/oz) $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 BHP Billiton Group % Silver Price (US$/oz) $ $ $ $ $ $ Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc % Copper Price (US$/lb) $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 Tenstar Trading Limited % Australian : US$ exchange rate $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 BlackRock, Inc % Canadian : US$ exchange rate $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 Financial Summary (C$) Year-end June E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E RESOURCE ESTIMATE Tonnes Cu Au Cu Au CuEq Shares Outstanding (M) (1000) % g/t M lb K oz % Indicated 1, % , % EPS (0.04) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Inferred % , % CFPS (0.04) (0.01) (0.05) Total % , % P/CF (15.1)x (83.5)x (12.4)x 5.7x 2.5x 1.8x RCKS Est. Resource % , % Income Statement (C$M) Revenue NET ASSET VALUE Operating Expenses Discount Rate (C$M) (C$/Sh) Depreciation Cascabel, Ecuador (85% Ownership) 8% $ 6,175.6 $ 2.40 General & Admin Taxes 8% $ (3,352.5) $ (1.31) General Exploration Other Assets in-situ $ $ 0.07 Net Income (88.0) (20.0) (134.8) Corporate adjustments 8% $ $ 0.30 Balance Sheet (C$M) Total NAV $ 3,776.7 $ 1.47 Cash & Equivalents (856.9) (1086.6) (1234.9) (1024.1) (1199.2) Debt COMPARABLES Cash Flow (C$M) Price MC Company Ticker US$ EV/ NAVPS Operating CF (88.0) (20.0) (134.8) C$ C$M CuEq C$ P/NAV Financing CF (80.0) (1625.0) (1625.0) (441.7) (452.5) (455.9) Entrée Resources Ltd. TSX:ETG $0.52 $92 $0.009 $ x Investing CF (663.0) Highland Copper Company Inc. TSXV:HI $0.09 $43 $0.009 $ x Change in Cash (1645.0) (229.8) (148.3) (175.0) Nevada Copper Corp. TSX:NCU $0.36 $238 $0.005 $ x $3,000 NGEx Resources Inc. TSX:NGQ $1.00 $228 $0.007 $ x $2,000 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. TSX:NDM $0.99 $327 $0.002 $ x Trilogy Metals Inc. AMEX:TMQ $2.02 $282 $0.022 $ x $1,000 Western Copper and Gold Corpo TSX:WRN $0.70 $71 $0.003 $ x $0 Average $0.011 $ x SolGold plc (Consensus) TSX:SOLG $0.65 $1,194 $0.029 $ x -$1,000 SolGold plc (RCKS Est.) TSX:SOLG $0.65 $1,248 $0.029 $ x -$2,000 NAVPS SENSITIVITIES 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Cash Flow From Operating Cash Flow From Investing Cash Flow From Financing Net Cash $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $ PRODUCTION PROFILE $2.50 1,200 1, $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $2.00 $ $0.5 $ $ ($0.5) 0 ($1.0) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E Copper in lbs CuEq Gold in lbs CuEq Total Cash Cost (US$/lb Cu) $0.50 $ % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Gold Price Copper Price Operating Cost Capital Cost As of market close on. 8
9 Derek Macpherson VP Mining Analysis, Edmond Thorose VP Corporate Development, Alex Pitcher Associate, Mining Analysis, Beatrice Cigagna Associate, Mining Analysis, Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc. 105 King Street East, 2 nd Floor Toronto ON, M5C 1G6 RCKSTalk@RedCloudKS.com /rcks-talk Disclaimer Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc. is registered as an Exempt Market Dealer in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland & Labrador, and the Yukon. Part of Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc.'s business is to connect mining companies with suitable investors that qualify under available regulatory exemptions (the "Red Cloud KS Business"). Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc., its affiliates and associates, and their respective officers, directors, representatives, researchers and members of their families (collectively, "Red Cloud KS") may hold positions in the companies mentioned in this publication and may buy or sell, or buy and sell their securities or securities of the same class on the market or otherwise. Additionally, Red Cloud KS may have provided in the past, and may provide in the future, certain advisory or corporate finance services and receive financial and other incentives from issuers as consideration for the provision of such services. Red Cloud KS has prepared this publication for general information purposes only, NOT as part of the Red Cloud KS Business. This publication should not be considered a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The information provided by Red Cloud KS for the purposes of this publication has been derived from sources believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions or analysis contained in this publication may be subject to change and Red Cloud KS does not undertake to advise the reader of such changes. This publication does NOT take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual recipients and other issues (e.g. prohibitions to investments due to law, jurisdiction issues, etc.) which may exist for certain persons. Recipients should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice before investment. Red Cloud KS will not treat recipients of this publication as customers or clients by virtue of having viewed this report. Company Specific Disclosure Details Company Name Ticker Symbol Disclosures SolGold plc TSX:SOLG 1, 2, 3, 4 1. A member of Red Cloud KS team has visited/viewed material operations of the issuer. 2. In the last 12 months, Red Cloud KS has been retained under a service or advisory agreement by the subject issuer. 3. In the last 12 months, Red Cloud KS has received compensation for investment banking services. 4. Red Cloud KS or a member of the Red Cloud KS team or household, has a long position in the shares and/or the options of the subject issuer. 5. Red Cloud KS or a member of the Red Cloud KS team or household, has a short position in the shares and/or the options of the subject issuer. 6. Red Cloud KS or a member of the Red Cloud KS team own more than 1% of any class of common equity of the subject issuer. 7. A member of Red Cloud KS team or a member s household serves as a Director or Officer or Advisory Board Member of the subject issuer. 9
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