Q Earnings Recap

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1 Title: Diversified & Real Estate Income Equities Headline: Identifying High Yield Opportunities 2011 Outlook May 14, 2017 The NBF Daily Bulletin Industry Comment Diversified & Real Estate Income Equities Q Earnings Recap 9 Trevor Johnson, CFA, MBA (416) trevor.johnson@nbc.ca Associate: Kyle Stanley (416) kyle.stanley@nbc.ca Associate: Alex Bauer (416) alex.bauer@nbc.ca With calendar Q1 reporting behind us we highlight which equities in our diversified coverage list: 1) had the best/worst earnings momentum in the quarter; 2) offer the most compelling yield opportunities; 3) provide the most attractive relative valuation; and from this, 4) are the best positioned to Outperform going forward. The following table summarizes how our coverage list equities performed relative to NBF and Street EBITDA forecasts calendar Q1: CALENDAR Q1/2017 RESULTS SUMMARY EBITDA ($ mln) Actual vs. Company NBF Consensus Actual NBF/Consensus Avg. Crown Capital Corp. Q1/17 $4.0 mln $3.9 mln $4.5 mln 13.9% More Tricon Capital Q1/17 US$27.4 mln US$25.9 mln US$29.4 mln 10.3% Favorable Parkland Fuels Q1/17 $62.2 mln $66.8 mln $70.0 mln 8.5% American Hotels Q1/17 US$16.4 mln n/a US$16.9 mln 3.0% Morneau Shepell Q1/17 $30.5 mln $30.2 mln $31.0 mln 2.1% Boyd Group Q1/17 $31.2 mln $33.2 mln $32.8 mln 1.9% CT REIT Q1/17 $74.2 mln n/a $75.4 mln 1.6% Choice Properties Q1/17 $147.0 mln n/a $148.1 mln 0.7% New Flyer Q1/17 US$70.8 mln US$72.3 mln US$71.4 mln -0.2% Crius Energy Q1/17 US$14.6 mln US$14.6 mln US$14.5 mln -0.7% SmartREIT Q1/17 $112.7 mln n/a $109.0 mln -3.3% WPT Industrial Q1/17 US$12.7 mln n/a US$12.0 mln -5.5% Alaris Royalty Q1/17 $19.2 mln $19.3 mln $18.1 mln -6.0% Exchange Income Q1/17 $48.1 mln $50.1 mln $43.3 mln -11.8% Chemtrade Logistics Q1/17 $55.6 mln $54.3 mln $47.7 mln -13.2% Enercare Q1/17 $60.8 mln $61.7 mln $52.5 mln -14.3% Less K-Bro Linen Q1/17 $6.9 mln $6.6 mln $4.7 mln -30.4% Favorable Liquor Stores Q1/17 $1.7 mln $1.8 mln $0.7 mln -60.0% Source: NBF, Thomson, Bloomberg We revise target prices for the following Outperform-rated equities: Boyd Group: Target to $100 (from $95); Crius Energy: Target to $12 (from $11.50); Enercare: Target to $24 (from $25); Exchange Income: Target to $45 (from $50); New Flyer: Target to $62 (from $60). The most compelling opportunities for income-oriented investors include: Crius Energy: 7.4% yield / 74% 2018e DCPU payout. AHIP: 8.0% yield / 73% 2018e AFFO payout. Exchange Income: 6.1% yield / 50% 2018e DCPS payout Alaris Royalty: 8.2% yield / 76% 2018e DCPS payout. WPT Industrial: 5.7% yield / 77% 2018e AFFO payout. Equities providing attractive forward relative valuations include: Crius Energy: 5.2x EV/EBITDA & 7.4x P/CF (sharp discount to comps & TSX income peers). Exchange Income: 6.3x EV/EBITDA & 7.9x P/CF (too low given organic + M&A growth profile). Alaris: 8.9x EV/EBITDA & 9.2x P/CF (royalty structure & portfolio progress warrants higher). Our top picks at current prices are: Parkland Fuel: Bullish on accretion from CST/Chevron transformational acq ns closing H2. Enercare: Disappointing Q1, but no fundamental change to our positive investment outlook. Tricon Capital: Sum-of-parts NAV valuation suggests shares are undervalued. Alaris Royalty: Pullback creates an opportunity as portfolio made some positive strides Q1. Crius Energy: earnings momentum, valuation and dividend growth profile still encouraging. Exchange Income: H2/17 setting up well, as short term pain long term gain 18 strategy evolves. American Hotels, Boyd Group, Crown Capital, Morneau Shepell, New Flyer, SmartREIT and WPT Industrial all well-positioned to move higher.

2 Page 2 Company Updates American Hotel Income Properties REIT HOT.un (TSX) $10.75 Target: $12.50 (Unchanged) Yield: 8.0% Est. Total Return: 24.3% Our forecasts are net unchanged after adjusting for generally better-than-expected Q1 results from the branded portfolio and softer than anticipated performance from the rail hotels. On the branded side the LTM acquisitions are performing well (Florida y/y RevPAR growth +7.6%, Central +5.1%, N. Carolina +4.1% & Texas +3.9% vs. +3.4% for Q1 for the entire U.S. industry), and despite ongoing challenges in Pittsburgh (-8.8%) and Oklahoma (-1.1%), HOT is faring better than competitors in these two markets. We argue Q1 s -20% y/y SPNOI decline from the rail portfolio has the potential to rebound throughout 2017, as: 1) car load volumes have begun to pick up after a sluggish few years; 2) the changes to HOT s rail contract extensions over the LTM gives the REIT enhanced leverage to this potential recovery (sacrificing guaranteed occupancy for elevated average daily room rates); and 3) depressed transient volumes accounted for much of the weakness, with management committed to driving this ancillary volume higher, in part through ongoing investments into technology. HOT trades at ~9x 2018e P/AFFO, too conservative in our view given its relative portfolio and investment attributes. Dilution from equity raises below HOT s ~$12.50 NAV continues to be a primary investor concern; however: 1) management has done a solid job diversifying the portfolio by acquiring branded hotels to mitigate rail risk; 2) despite Q1 s modestly negative y/y FFO/AFFO per unit performance there was still ~US$20 mln left to be deployed from December s raise that would have helped reverse this; and 3) HOT s 8% cash yield pays investors relatively well for what we believe will be an eventual acquisition of the portfolio, with little risk to the distribution in the interim (sub-75% AFFO payout ratio). We reiterate an Outperform rating and $12.50 target price, which implies ~10.5x 2018e P/AFFO. See our initial Q1 review for HOT here. Boyd Group Income Fund BYD.un (TSX) $89.76 Target: $ (Was $95.00) Risk Rating: Above Average (Unchanged) Yield: 0.6% Est. Total Return: 12.0% BYD reported Q1/17 revenue of $378.9 mln (vs. $371.1 mln est. & $350.5 mln Q1/16), adj. EBITDA of $32.8 mln (vs. $31.2 mln est. & $29.4 mln Q1/16) and DCPU (NBF definition) of $1.02 reflecting a 13% payout ratio (vs. $0.98 / 13% est. & $1.00 / 13% Q1/16). Results were similarly comparable to consensus $383.9 mln top line and $33.2 mln EBITDA. +1.2% same-store sales growth was slower than investors have come to expect from BYD, but this was outlined by management last quarter and widely anticipated by the market. Relatively dry/warm weather and difficult Q1/16 comps weighed on performance, although management indicated that a sequential uptick is expected Q2 as these factors are less pronounced. Profitability was again positive, with Q1 adj. EBITDA margins of 8.7% +30 bps y/y and vs. NBF forecast. BYD s growing scale and internal programs to drive expense efficiencies continue to push profitability higher. Eight new locations were added in Q1/17, and an additional two subsequent to quarter end. This is below the company s usual pace and what is required to accomplish management s goal of doubling the portfolio from (~60/year); however, this guidance was again reiterated and there is no change to our favourable acquisition outlook for BYD.

3 Page 3 After adjusting for Q1 takeaways and commentary our forecasts bump modestly. Despite some short-term noise we argue BYD is well-positioned to generate mid-single digit organic growth, reliable financial results and compelling M&A accretion upside. Our $100 target price (was $95) implies ~12x 2018e EV/EBITDA, and with a double-digit implied total return, one of the best balance sheets in our universe to finance growth (0.7x net debt / EBITDA & over $350 mln dry powder) and one of the more compelling takeout opportunities (LBO suggests $125+ valuation & PE aggressive in the space), we reiterate an Outperform rating. Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund CHE.un (TSX) $18.26 Target: $19.50 (Unchanged) Stock Rating: Sector Perform (Unchanged) Yield: 6.6% Est. Total Return: 13.4% On May 9 th CHE reported Q1/17 revenue of $274.5 mln (vs. $288.4 mln est. & $280.3 mln Q1/16), adj. EBITDA of $47.7 mln after adjusting for 1x Canexus transaction costs (vs. $55.6 mln est. & $51.4 mln Q1/16) and DCPU of $0.40 reflecting a 75% payout ratio after adjusting for 1x (vs. $0.31/96% est. & $0.54/56% Q1/16). Results underperformed the Street s $306 mln top line and $54.3 mln EBITDA forecast. In terms of segmented results: 1) the SPPC division contributed revs of $123.6 mln and EBITDA of $28.9 mln, below our $134 / $33 mln est. and Q1/16 s $159.5 mln / $35.6 mln. Depressed sales volumes/selling prices for sulphuric acid, the five-month shutdown at Augusta and a discontinuation of liquid sulfur dioxide sales in E. Canada as demand declined (~$9.0 mln top-line hit) accounted for the weakness; 2) the WSSC business generated $102.1 mln revenue and $22.1 mln EBITDA, below our $125 / $31 mln est. and Q1/16 s $108.5 mln / $27.1 mln. Generally lower volumes/selling prices and operating issues at one of CHE s large chemical treatment sites (addressed Q4) leaked into Q1 results and contributed to the weakness; and 3) the EC segment realized $48.9 mln revenue and $12.9 mln EBITDA, ahead of our $35 / $10 mln est. and Q1/16 s $12.4 mln / $3.7 mln (the large y/y increase due to the closing of Canexus March 10 th ). Canexus contributed incremental EBITDA of ~$8 mln for the 22 days it was held, ahead of our ~$6.5 mln forecast. Canexus is off to a good start, a continuation key to a more positive investment bias in our view, as ongoing top-line and profitability headwinds with CHE s legacy SPPC and WSSC verticals give us pause. There are minor tweaks to our model given elevated capex assumptions for the Canexus integration, but our 2018e forecasts are largely unchanged. CHE s 6.6% dividend yield to ~60% payout ratio is compelling and any upside from Canexus will drive shareholder value, but for now we maintain a Sector Perform rating, our unchanged $19.50 target price implying ~9x 2018e EV/EBITDA. Crius Energy Trust KWH.un (TSX) $10.70 Target: $12.00 (Was $11.50) Yield: 7.4% Est. Total Return: 19.5% KWH reported Q1/17 revenue of US$177.4 mln (vs. US$206 mln est. & US$180.8 mln Q1/16), adj. EBITDA of US$14.5 mln (vs. US$14.6 mln est. & US$13.1 mln Q1/16) and DCPU (NBF definition) of US$0.19 reflecting a 75% payout ratio (vs. US$0.25 / 63% est. & US$0.25 / 58% Q1/16). The Street s adj. EBITDA forecast of US$14.6 mln was similarly in line with results. In terms of positive takeaways: 1) the in-line Q1 adj. EBITDA vs. NBF/Street expectations was achieved despite the solar business realizing a $2.4 mln EBITDA loss as the vertical ramps up. Adjusting this back results in EBITDA of $16.9 mln, an over 15% beat and speaking to the positive underlying performance of KWH s retail portfolio (which accounts for >90% of 2018e EBITDA); 2) despite the sharp Q1 loss management did reiterate their 2017e solar EBITDA guidance range of US$3-US$6 mln; 3) gross RCE adds of +153k in the quarter were well ahead of our +94k estimate, with robust performance from the electricity portfolio due to both commercial and retail gains. Net RCE adds of +21k outpaced our +19k forecast; and 4)

4 Page 4 profitability was ahead of forecast (8.2% adj. EBITDA margins vs. 7.1% est. & 7.2% Q1/16), as KWH continues to ramp selling efficiencies (2.8% of revs vs. 4% Q1/16) in a challenging gross margin backdrop for energy retailers (low commodity prices and highly competitive). In terms of negative takeaways: 1) customer drops were much greater than forecast (-135k vs. -75k est.), as a handful of large commercial contracts were lost due to price; and 2) the most material takeaway from the release is that KWH incurred US$2.5 mln in legal fees and established a US$6 mln reserve for ongoing litigation involving the company s selling and marketing techniques. We have covered close peer Just Energy for over 12 years and can attest that customer/regulatory lawsuits are unfortunately a normal part of energy retailing. That said the establishment of a provision to handle such claims is new for KWH and is likely to weigh on valuation until the situation improves (subject to the timing of courts, but our interpretation is that management would like to see this completely resolved by the end of 2018). The company says these issues relate to pre-2016 and that the marketing shift the last year has largely addressed the problems (i.e., more network/channel marketing, greater focus on commercial vs. residential, minimal door-to-door campaigns). We incorporated a US$1 mln/quarter legal expense into our forecasts through the end of 2018, which we will update as additional information is available. Our 2018e EBITDA and DCPU decline by 5% and 6%, respectively, after adjusting for Q1 takeaways. KWH continues to offer one of the best yield-to-payouts (7.4% vs. sub-75%) and balance sheet health within the TSX diversified income space. At its current ~5.2x 2018e EV/EBITDA valuation KWH trades at a significant discount to both its closest peer Just Energy (~7x 2018 EV/EBITDA) and the TSX diversified high yield universe (~9.5x), a spread that we believe continues to narrow as the company proves out its model. The legal developments Q1 are obviously disappointing, but the overall size is modest (US$6 mln provision <10% of one year s EBITDA) and management is motivated to resolve the matters as efficiently as possible for unitholders. We maintain an Outperform rating, our target price bumping to $12 (was $11.50) which implies 5.75x 2018e EV/EBITDA (was 5.5x, the bump owing to continued favourable earnings momentum from KWH s core energy retailing portfolio). Enercare Inc. ECI (TSX) $18.97 Target: $24.00 (Was $25.00) Yield: 5.1% Est. Total Return: 31.6% ECI reported Q1/17 revenue of $277.8 mln (vs. $291.1 mln est. & $142.6 mln Q1/16), acquisition-adj. EBITDA of $52.5 mln (vs. $60.8 mln est. & $58.1 mln Q1/16) and DCPS of $0.24 reflecting a 96% payout ratio (vs. $0.24/93% est. & $0.30/61% Q1/16). Top line was ahead of consensus $271 mln estimate, but EBITDA was light vs. the Street s $61.7 mln forecast. In terms of segmented results: 1) the Home Services business contributed $111 mln top line and $61.6 mln adj. EBITDA (vs. $110.9/$65.5 mln est. & 106.5/63.3 mln Q1/16). The +4% y/y increase in revenue can be attributed to rental rate increases implemented in January, changes in asset mix and growth in rental HVAC units. This segment realized its seventh consecutive quarter of organic rental additions (+9k adds vs. -8k attrition, both in-line with forecasts). 55.4% adj. EBITDA margins were shy of our 59% estimate. 59.4% Q1/16, in our view the most meaningful negative takeaway from ECI s Q1 release, and a focal point for coming quarters; 2) Service Experts generated $127.8 mln revenue and -$3.5 mln adj. EBITDA (vs. $142 mln/-$0.7 mln est. & no comparable period Q1/16 since closed Q2/16). The business saw +8% y/y growth in rental and sales units, and the early impact of the ECI s rental rollout is progressing as anticipated, with early adoption rates of 15-20% in Ontario, 7-10% in W. Canada and 3-5% in the U.S. Profitability was a wildcard Q1 for SE as we had not seen a seasonally weak Q1 before. Management suggested marginally negative EBITDA for the quarter which we interpreted to be greater than the reported -$3.5 mln, but the business continues to track well versus the ~$35 mln of EBITDA it was purchased for last year; and 3) the sub-metering vertical produced $38.9 mln revenue and $2.6 mln EBITDA (vs. $37.5/$3.7 mln est. & $36.1/$3.3 mln Q1/16). This business benefitted from an 8% y/y increase in billable units, with unit continuity further improving (contracted +15%, installed +6% & billable +11%).

5 Page 5 Profitability was below forecast, but management suggested some costs are set to normalize the remainder of the year. We anticipated Q1 results could be poorly received by investors on account of the seasonal drag from SE after almost three quarters of contribution above expectations, but the resulting sell-off Friday comes as a surprise. Depressed profitability from the Home Services business is partly to blame and will be under the spotlight going forward; however, our view on the merits of SE remains unchanged. We trimmed our 2018e EBITDA and DCPS forecasts by 3-4% on account of more conservative Home Service margin assumptions, resulting in a $24 target price (was $25) using an unchanged ~10.5x 2018e EV/EBITDA valuation. ECI s 5% dividend yield vs % payout is compelling in the context of TSX income peers, and we argue its ~9x forward EV/EBITDA valuation has upside (TSX diversified peers ~9.5x; close peer Reliance Home Comfort recently acquired for ~12-13x TTM). Reiterate Outperform. Exchange Income Corp. EIF (TSX) $34.65 Target: $45.00 (Was $50.00) Yield: 6.1% Est. Total Return: 35.9% As anticipated EIF has employed a short-term pain long-term gain strategy for 2018, as: 1) a greater than normal number of aircraft overhauls are required for the legacy airlines (comparatively 15 vs. nine in 2016); 2) Q1 / early Q2 are seasonally weak for this business due to ice roads being an alternative; 3) EIF has in-house overhauling capabilities (PAL) vs. previously needing to outsource the work, and PAL has idle capacity over this time frame. As a result EIF overhauled ~12 planes YTD, this aggressive pace set to benefit seasonally stronger H2/17 earnings momentum substantially. We attended EIF s AGM last week and had the opportunity to speak with the President of Airbus Canada Simon Jacques. As a reminder PAL (100% owned by EIF) was part of the winning consortium that was recently announced to replace, maintain, train and provide logistics for Canada's Fixed Wing Search and Rescue (FWSAR) program. Airbus led the bid and is manufacturing 16 C295 aircraft for delivery beginning 2019, with PAL providing ground infrastructure, maintenance and other support functions as part of the contract, which is positioned to last over 25 years at a total cost close to $5 billion. Our conversation with Mr. Jacques, as well as a handful of other considerations, suggests that the relationship between PAL and Airbus could be an eventual driver of shareholder value beyond just the FWSAR mandate, as: 1) the two will be working closely, as a JV was established called AirPro SAR Services to serve as the single point of contact for the Federal government as per the requirements of the tender. Airbus is committed to transferring as much knowledge as possible to PAL, as after the planes are delivered it is in their best interest to shift focus to other high-margin manufacturing opportunities and let PAL manage an existing fleet; 2) Airbus is also committed to continue investing into Canada and alongside Canadian companies, and there is believed to be a few additional large opportunities with the Federal government over time; 3) PAL was recently ranked the #8 contractor by Canada s Department of Defense, further legitimizing its value to Airbus; and 4) Airbus does a significant amount of its global service support obligations in-house, an opportunity if PAL demonstrates its worth as a partner. There are no meaningful revisions to our forecasts, as modestly lower contribution from the aviation/aerospace portfolio is offset by an improving manufacturing vertical. While EIF s EBITDA missed NBF and consensus forecasts for the second consecutive quarter, there are a number of non-recurring factors that impacted Q4/Q1 that are set to no longer be headwinds (leasing planes to support customers during fleet overhauls has ended, weather is less of a factor, fleet well-prepped for seasonally healthy H2). EIF trades at ~6x 2018e EV/EBITDA, too low in our view given the company s relative investment merits, compelling yield to payout (6.1% vs. 50%) and commitment to dividend

6 Page 6 growth, and earnings momentum being well-positioned to rebound. We trimmed our valuation multiple to ~7.5x 2018e EV/EBITDA (was ~8x) as investors won t see EIF s true cash flow profile until H2. This prompts a $45 target price (was $50) and we reiterate an Outperform rating. See our initial Q1 review for EIF here. K-Bro Linen Inc. KBL (TSX) $39.11 Target: $38.00 (Unchanged) Stock Rating: Sector Perform (Unchanged) Yield: 3.1% Est. Total Return: 0.2% KBL reported Q1/17 revenue of $39 mln (v. $40 mln est. & $38.8 mln Q1/16), EBITDA of $4.7 mln (vs. $6.9 mln est. & $6.8 mln Q1/16) and DCPS (NBF definition) of $0.52 reflecting a 54% payout ratio (vs. $0.65/46% est. & $0.66/45% Q1/16). Top line and EBITDA were similarly below consensus $40.5 mln / $6.6 mln forecasts. The +0.4% y/y increase in revenue was due to additional volumes from the Vancouver lower inland healthcare contract, organic gains at existing customers and new mandates in existing markets, offset by price concessions in Vancouver for a 10-year contract signed Q1/17 and one less day in the quarter y/y (estimated to be a ~$400k impact, or ~1%). As anticipated the final transition to the new Toronto facility as well as a collective bargaining issue with drivers in this market resulted in depressed profitability Q1. The impact was sharper than expected however, with 12.2% EBITDA margins near record low and below NBF and the Street s ~17% forecast. Adding back these 1x costs increases EBITDA by an estimated $2.3 mln however, taking margin to ~18.5%, closer to the ~19%+ levels realized 2015 that management is targeting by 2019 when the Toronto and Vancouver facility relocations are complete. As mentioned KBL completed the transition to the new Mississauga facility in Q1, the projected total cost of this relocation status quo at $37 mln ($33.9 mln incurred to date). Vancouver relocation costs are similarly unchanged at $50-$55 mln. We will update our forecasts after Monday s 9 a.m. EST conference call ( ), expecting a decline in profitability given the extent of Toronto s relocation costs was greater than anticipated Q1 (expected to persist through Q3-17), with Vancouver set to transition Q3/18 this one of KBL s largest facilities as well. New volume wins (particularly in Vancouver/Toronto), evidence of a rebound towards legacy profitability (anticipated 2019) and possible M&A (none incorporated into our forecasts) are potential precursors to a more positive investment bias, but in the interim we maintain a Sector Perform rating and $38 target price (implies ~10.5x 2018e EV/EBITDA). New Flyer Industries Inc. NFI (TSX) $54.00 Target: $62.00 (Was $60.00) Yield: 2.4% Est. Total Return: 17.2% After adjusting for Q1 results and takeaways our 2017e top line is largely flat (higher 2017 production guidance offset by weaker than anticipated aftermarkets revs), while EBITDA bumps 3% on enhanced profitability (mfg EBITDA/EU US$56.5k vs. US$54k est.; aftermarkets adj. EBITDA margin 21.8% vs. 21.1% est. & 20.1% Q1/16). Following NFI s +37% dividend increase we calculate payout ratio remains conservative at 35-40%. Our target price bumps to $62 (was $60) which translates to ~9.5x 2018e EV/EBITDA. We reiterate an Outperform rating, arguing NFI stands to continue generating shareholder value by way of: 1) cost rationalization, we estimate upwards of $25 mln in coming years (~9% of 2016

7 Page 7 EBITDA); 2) additional production increase, supported by NFI s near record >US$5 bln backlog, favourable ongoing order activity and the company s robust bid universe; 3) material free cash flow of over US$100 mln per year and an arguably under-leveraged balance sheet at ~1.6x net debt 2017e EBITDA (TSX diversified income peers averaging ~2.4x) to help finance growth; and 4) the prospects for more accretive M&A from a variety of sources in order of our estimated likelihood: 1) North American aftermarkets/parts providers; 2) school buses; 3) cutaways / medium duty shuttle; and 4) international transit/coach manufacturing. See our initial Q1 review for NFI here.

8 Page 8 DISCLOSURES: Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each: Outperform The stock is expected to outperform the analyst s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector over the next 12 months; Underperform The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review Our analyst has withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for the company s stock; Restricted Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating a company s stock. 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