Consumer Opinion Survey March 2018 Bulletin 197

Transcription

1 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Balance, % Consumer Opinion Survey Bulletin 197 In March, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved 4.7 percentage points with respect to the previous month but remained in negative levels. Monthly increase was due to an improvement in both consumer expectations and economic conditions indexes. Compared to March 2017, consumer confidence improved in all cities surveyed and all levels of income. Willingness to buy a house decreased with respect to the previous month but was higher than one year ago. Willingness to buy furniture and home appliances increased compared to the previous month. According to the results of the most recent measurement of the Consumer Opinion Survey (COS), in March the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recorded a balance of -3.2%, which represents an increase of 4.7 percentage points (pps) compared to the previous month and an increase of 18.0 pps compared to March 2017 (Graph 1) Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) CCI CCI QMA QMA: Quaterly moving average

2 Consumer Opinion Survey The improvement in consumer confidence compared to February is due to an increase in both the economic conditions index and the consumer expectations index. The CCI has five components, the details of which are shown in Table 1. The first three refer to household expectations for the following year, while the other two refer to the perception of consumers about the current economic situation. The Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) is constructed with the first three and the Economic Conditions Index (ECI) with the remaining two. The increase in the ICC with respect to February is explained by an increase of 6.2 pps in the consumer expectations index and an increase of 2.4 pps in the economic conditions indicator. On the other hand, compared to March 2017, the The consumer expectations index showed an increase of 17.9 pps and economic conditions index improved by 18.0 pps (Graph 2). Table 1. Evolution of the components of the CCI (Balances between favorable and unfavorable responses, %) Variable / Balance % Consumer Confidence Index - CCI A.Consumer Expectations Index - CEI Do you think that within a year your household will economically do better, worse or the same than now? -Do you think that within the next twelve months we will have good or bad economic times? -Do you think that the country s economic conditions will be better or worse within a year than they currently are? B. Economic Conditions Index - ECI Do you think that your household is economically doing better or worse than a year ago? -Do you think this is a good time to purchase big items such as furniture and appliances? The results of the first quarter of 2018 showed an improvement compare to the last quarter of 2017 (Graph 3). This is explained by an increase in the valuation of the country, which remains in negative territory, and a slight improvement in household valuation, which continues in positive territory. Finally, the disposition to buy durable goods improved with respect to

3 Balance, % Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Balance, % Consumer Opinion Survey Graph 2. Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) Economic Conditions Index (ECI) CEI ECI Graph 3. Perception of consumers about the situation of the country and the household Consumer Confidence Index Country valuation Household valuation Willingness to buy durable goods 4T16 1T17 2T17 3T17 4T17 1T18. In March, the ICC increased relative to the previous month in four of the five cities surveyed, mainly in Barranquilla. Relative to the March 2017, confidence increased in all the cities. The results of the ICC disaggregated by city show a monthly increase in Barranquilla (9.9 pps) and Cali (4.1 pps), which have reached positive territory, and in Medellin (5.3 pps) and Bogotá (4.9 pps), which despite the increase remain in negative territory (Table 2). Compared to March 2017, consumer confidence increased in all the cities surveyed, especially in Cali and Bogotá (Table 2). 3

4 Consumer Opinion Survey Table 2. Evolution of the CCI by cities City, Balance % Bogotá Medellín Cali Barranquilla Bucaramanga Total Consumer confidence increased against the previous month in the middle and lowincome levels. Compared to March 2017, the ICC increased in all income levels. Disaggregating the results by level of income, with respect to February an increase of 9.4 pps was observed for the middle income and of 2.6 pps for the low income. Compared to March of the previous year, consumer confidence increased in the high, medium and low-income level groups, by 21.2 pps, 24.7 pps and 10.4 pps respectively (Table 3). Income level. Balance % Table 3. Evolution of the CCI by income level High Medium Low Total Willingness to buy a house decreased compared to the previous month, although it is higher than that observed in March Compared to February, this indicator showed a reduction in three of the five cities surveyed. In March, the indicator about willingness to buy a house was placed at a balance of 2.4%, which is equivalent to a decrease of 9.6 pps compared to the previous month and an increase of 21.1 pps compared to March of 2017 (Table 4). The results by city show that willingness to buy a house exhibited a reduction in Bogota, Medellin and Cali compared to the previous month, while with respect to March of 2017 the disposition increased in all the cities. 4

5 Consumer Opinion Survey Table 4. Willingness to buy a house by cities City. Balance % Bogotá Medellín Cali Barranquilla Bucaramanga Total Willingness to buy a house decreased in all income levels compared to the previous month but increased compared to March In March, the results of the indicator of the willingness to buy a house disaggregated by level of income show a monthly reduction of 14.3 pps in the high income level, 7.8 pps in the middle income level and 10.8 pps in the low income level. Compared to the same month of the previous year, there was an increase of 25.6 pps in the high income level, of 29.4 pps in the middle income level and of 12.6 pps in the low income level. Table 5. Willingness to buy a house by socioeconomic level Income level, Balance % High Middle Low Total Willingness to buy furniture and home appliances increased compared to the previous month and compared to March 2017, but remains in negative territory. The balance of answers about whether it is a good or bad time to buy goods such as furniture and home appliances was -6.2% in March, which represents an increase of 1.8 pps compared to February and 22.6 pps compared to March Compared to the previous month, willingness to buy durable goods increased in three of the five cities surveyed, particularly in Barranquilla (12.2 pps). Compared to the same month of the previous year, the index increased in four of the cities analyzed (Table 6). 5

6 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Balance, % RER Consumer Opinion Survey Table 6. Willingness to buy furniture and home appliances by cities City, Balance % Bogotá Medellín Cali Barranquilla Bucaramanga Total In March, the balance of willingness to buy vehicles was -42.1%, with an increase of 0.9 pps compared to the previous month and of 10.2 pps compared to March (Graph 4). 40 Graph 4. Willingness to buy car vs. real exchange rate Willingness to buy car Real exchange rate and Central Bank of Colombia Published: April 16, 2018 Comments to Santiago Gomez: sgomez@fedesarrollo.org.co Contact us if you would like to have access to disaggregated results by city, level of income and other survey questions ext. 340 comercial@fedesarrollo.org.co 6