SURVEYS OF CONSUMERS DATA FILE DOCUMENTATION

Transcription

1 SURVEYS OF CONSUMERS DATA FILE DOCUMENTATION Initiated in 1946, the Surveys of Consumers provide regular assessments of consumer attitudes and expectations, and are used to evaluate economic trends and prospects. The surveys are designed to explore why changes in consumer attitudes and expectations occur, and how these changes influence consumer spending and saving decisions. This book documents the PC data files available for the monthly Surveys of Consumers. The data files are designed for use on Windows compatible PCs. All data files are ASCII text files. Richard T. Curtin, Director! Surveys of Consumers! P.O. Box 1248! Ann Arbor, Michigan Phone: (734) ! Fax: (734) The University of Michigan, All rights reserved.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 1. Data File Structure... 1! File Format... 1! File Names... 1! Interpolated Data... 2! File Choice... 2! Documentation... 2! Complete Data File... 3! Area Summary Files... 3! Individual Question Files Exhibit A: Question Wording and Reference Numbers Exhibit B: Complete Data File Exhibit C: Summary File for the Index of Consumer Sentiment Exhibit D: Summary File for Personal Finances Exhibit E: Summary File for General Business Conditions Exhibit F: Summary File for Unemployment, Price, and Interest Rate Expectations Exhibit G: Summary File for Buying Conditions for Homes, Vehicles, and Household Durables Sample Design... 19! Confidence Intervals for Estimated Percentages... 20! Confidence Intervals for Estimated Percentages... 21

3 DATA FILE STRUCTURE This book documents the PC data files available for the Surveys of Consumers. The data files are designed for use on Windows compatible PCs. All data files are written as ASCII text files. Each monthly data file contains the time series of observations from January 1978 to present; each quarterly file contains data from the first quarter of 1960 to present. Each line in the data files represent either one monthly or one quarterly observation. The data contained in these PC files are identical to the figures reported in the monthly data books. These data books can also be used as easy reference for question wording and variable definitions. File Format There are two different file formats: blank and comma delimited. Monthly files have either a *.MBL (Monthly BLank) or a *.MCO (Monthly COmma) extension, and quarterly files have a *.QBL (Quarterly BLank) or a *.QCO (Quarterly COmma) extension. Between these two types, it should be possible for most software programs to input the data sets. MONTHLY QUARTERLY MONTHLY QUARTERLY BLANK DELIMITED BLANK DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED *.MBL *.QBL *.MCO *.QCO File Names To facilitate meeting the diverse needs of users, three versions of the basic data files are provided: Complete Data File, Area Summary Files, and Individual Question Files -- described below. The three versions differ only in the number of variables included in the data arrays. All the data files have the same number of lines, one line per month starting in January 1978, or for the quarterly files, one line per quarter since the first quarter of Each data file name is made up of a 7 or 8 character acronym of the question name. For the individual question files, the acronym includes the table number where the question can be found in the data books for easy referencing. Below is an example of the file name format. The data file name begins with an abbreviated form of the question name (notated as qnames below) and the table number (notated as ## below) with the four possible extensions (see File Format above). For example, the data file name for Table 4: Current Financial Situation Compared to a Year Ago, would be PERAGO04.* where qnames = PERAGO and ## = 04 (i.e. Table 4, the table where the question can be found in the data books). 1

4 The area summary files (described in further detail below) are distinguished by the use of SUM in the file name with an abbreviated form of the area name (notated as area below) with the four possible extensions. An example of a data file name would be: MKTSUM.* where the MKT is an acronym for buying conditions (or market) questions and the SUM refers to the file version (i.e. area summary file). The complete data file is simply named, ICSALL.*. A complete listing of the file names can be found in the following sections. MONTHLY MONTHLY QUARTERLY QUARTERLY BLANK DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED BLANK DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED Individual Question Files qnames##.mbl qnames##.mco qnames##.qbl qnames##.qco Area Summary Files areasum.mbl areasum.mco areasum.qbl areasum.qco Complete Data File ICSALL.MBL ICSALL.MCO ICSALL.QBL ICSALL.QCO Interpolated Data Interpolated values are substituted for missing data whenever practical. The interpolated values allow for easier graphing of time-series data. When an entire line (i.e. one survey month or quarter) is made up of interpolated values, the number of cases is always set to zero. Please refer to your data books for actual survey results. File Choice In general, three criteria are important in the choice among the different file versions. First, the smallest file, or combination of files, that include all the variables needed for analysis will minimize the required data storage space. Second, since some software programs limit the number of variables which can be read from a single line, the use of multiple data files may be required. And lastly, the user must decide which file format (blank or comma delimited) is most suitable for their software programs. Most users will probably never require the use of all the data files, as this would needlessly replicate each data series. Documentation Exhibit A gives a complete listing of the wording of all questions. The question and code numbers listed in Exhibit A are used in the subsequent exhibits/tables to identify the specific question and response code which corresponds to each of the time series variables. 2

5 Complete Data File The file ICSALL.* contains all of the data series for the monthly surveys. The variables included in this file are listed in Exhibit B, along with reference codes to locate the exact question wording and response codes. The column labeled "Var#" gives the order of the variables written on each line of the data file. If your hardware and software will accommodate the larger size of this file, you can input all of the data directly from this one file. COMPLETE DATA FILE EXHIBIT DESCRIPTION FILE NAME B All Survey Questions ICSALL.* Area Summary Files The second set of files gives the survey results grouped by topic areas: the Index of Consumer Sentiment and its components (ICSSUM.*), personal finances (PERSUM.*), general business conditions (BUS1SUM.*), unemployment, price, and interest rate expectations (BUS2SUM.*), and buying conditions (MKTSUM.*). These data files are documented in Exhibits C through G. One of these files, ICSSUM.* (detailed in Exhibit C), contains summary measures for all of the questions regularly included in the monthly surveys. The values included in this file are the same as those displayed in the charts which accompany the monthly reports. This file should meet most users needs. More detailed results on any subject areas can be added by using this file in combination with the other summary files or the individual question files. AREA SUMMARY FILES EXHIBIT DESCRIPTION FILE NAME C Index of Consumer Sentiment and its Components ICSSUM.* D Personal Finances PERSUM.* E General Business Conditions BUS1SUM.* F Unemployment, Price, and Interest Rate Expectations BUS2SUM.* G Buying Conditions MKTSUM.* 3

6 Individual Question Files In the third group, the results for each individual question are contained in a separate file. These files represent copies of the tables, and contain the identical information. Each data line begins with the survey month or quarter and the survey year, and ends with the total, case count, and relative score (the proportion giving favorable responses minus the portion giving unfavorable responses plus 100) if applicable. The contents of these files are the same as in Tables 1-26 in the monthly data books. INDIVIDUAL QUESTION FILES TABLE DESCRIPTION FILE NAME 1 Index of Consumer Sentiment ICSALL01.* 2 Index of Consumer Sentiment within Regions and Age Subgroups ICSREG02.* 3 Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment ICSCOM03.* 4 Current Financial Situation Compared to a Year Ago PERAGO04.* 5 Selected Reasons for Opinions About Personal Financial Situation PERRSN05.* 6 Expected Change in Financial Situation PEREXP06.* 7 Trend in Personal Financial Situation PERTRD07.* 8 Expected Family Income Change During the Next 12 Months INCEXP08.* 9 Expected Change in Real Family Income RELINC09.* 10 News Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions NEWHRD10.* 11 Selected Items of News Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions NEWRSN11.* 12 Current Business Conditions Compared to a Year Ago BUSAGO12.* 13 Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year BUSEXP13.* 14 Trend in Past and Expected Changes in Business Conditions BUSTRD14.* 15 Business Conditions Expected During the Next 12 Months 12MBUS15.* 16 Business Conditions Expected During the Next 5 Years 5YRBUS16.* 17 Expected Change in Unemployment UEMEXP17.* 18 Expected Change in Interest Rates RATEXP18.* 19 Expected Change in Prices During the Next 12 Months PRIEXP19.* 20 Opinions About the Government's Economic Policy GOVPOL20.* 21 Buying Conditions for Large Household Goods DURMKT21.* 22 Selected Reasons About Buying Conditions for Large Household Goods DURRSN22.* 23 Buying Conditions for Houses HOMMKT23.* 24 Selected Reasons for Opinions About Buying Conditions for Houses HOMRSN24.* 25 Buying Conditions for Cars CARMKT25.* 26 Selected Reasons for Opinions About Buying Conditions for Cars CARRSN26.* 4

7 EXHIBIT A QUESTION WORDING AND REFERENCE NUMBERS QUESTION# CODE# QUESTION WORDING 1 "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?" 1 Better Off 2 Same 3 Worse Off 4 DK; NA 2 "Why do you say so?" 5 Higher income 6 Lower income 7 Higher prices 3 "Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?" 8 Better Off 9 Same 10 Worse Off 11 DK; NA 1,3 Trend in Personal Financial Situation: 12 Better off financially than a year ago/better off a year from now 13 Better/Same or Same/Better 14 Same/Same 15 Worse/Same or Same/Worse 16 Worse/Worse 17 Worse/Better or Better/Worse 18 DK; NA 4 "During the next 12 months, do you expect your (family) income to be higher or lower than during the past year?" and "By about what percent do you expect your (family) income to increase during the next 12 months?" 19 Expect Increase: 1-4% 20 Expect Increase: 5% 21 Expect Increase: 6-9% 22 Expect Increase: 10-24% 23 Expect Increase: 25% or more 24 Expect Increase: DK how much up 25 Expect Same 26 Expect Down 27 DK; NA 5

8 EXHIBIT A QUESTION WORDING AND REFERENCE NUMBERS QUESTION# CODE# QUESTION WORDING 5 "How about the next year or two--do you expect that your (family) income will go up more than prices will go up, about the same, or less than prices will go up?" 28 Income will go up more than prices 29 Income will go up same as prices 30 Prices will go up more than income 31 DK; NA 6 "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions?" and "What did you hear?" 32 Heard Favorable News 33 Heard Unfavorable News 34 No mentions 7 "What did you hear?" 35 Favorable News: Government; Elections 36 Favorable News: Employment 37 Favorable News: Higher Consumer Demand 38 Favorable News: Lower Prices 39 Favorable News: Easier Credit 40 Favorable News: Stock Market 41 Favorable News: Trade Deficit 42 Unfavorable News: Government; Elections 43 Unfavorable News: Unemployment 44 Unfavorable News: Lower Consumer Demand 45 Unfavorable News: Higher Prices 46 Unfavorable News: Tighter Credit 47 Unfavorable News: Energy Crisis 48 Unfavorable News: Stock Market 49 Unfavorable News: Trade Deficit 8 "Would you say that at the present time business conditions are better or worse than they were a year ago?" 50 Better Now 51 Same 52 Worse Now 53 DK; NA 9 "And how about a year from now, do you expect that in the country as a whole business conditions will be better, or worse than they are at present, or just about the same?" 54 Better 55 Same 56 Worse 57 DK; NA 6

9 EXHIBIT A QUESTION WORDING AND REFERENCE NUMBERS QUESTION# CODE# QUESTION WORDING 8,9 Trend in Past and Expected Changes in Business Conditions: 58 Better than a year ago/better a year from now 59 Better/Same or Same/Better 60 Same/Same 61 Worse/Same or Same/Worse 62 Worse/Worse 63 Worse/Better or Better/Worse 64 DK; NA 10 "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good times financially, or bad times or what?" 65 Good Times 66 Uncertain; Good & Bad 67 Bad Times 68 Don't Know 69 Not Ascertained 11 "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?" 70 Good Times 71 Uncertain; Good & Bad 72 Bad Times 73 Not Ascertained 12 "How about people out of work during the coming 12 months--do you think that there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?" Less Unemployment 76 Same Unemployment 77 More Unemployment DK; NA 13 "No one can say for sure, but what do you think will happen to interest rates for borrowing money during the next 12 months--will they go up, stay the same, or go down?" 78 Go Up 79 Stay the Same 80 Go Down 81 DK; NA 7

10 EXHIBIT A QUESTION WORDING AND REFERENCE NUMBERS QUESTION# CODE# QUESTION WORDING 14 "During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?" and "By about what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?" 82 Prices will stay the same or go down 83 Prices will go up by: 1-2% 84 Prices will go up by: 3-4% 85 Prices will go up by: 5% 86 Prices will go up by: 6-9% 87 Prices will go up by: 10-14% 88 Prices will go up by: 15% or more 89 Prices will go up by: DK how much up 90 DK; NA 15 "As to the economic policy of the government--i mean steps taken to fight inflation or unemployment--would you say the government is doing a good job, only fair, or a poor job?" 91 Good Job 92 Only Fair 93 Poor Job 94 DK; NA 16 "About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or a bad time for people to buy major household items?" 95 Good Time to Buy 96 Uncertain; Depends 97 Bad Time to Buy 17 "Why do you say so?" Good Time to Buy: 98 Prices are low; good buys available 99 Prices won't come down; are going higher 100 Interest rates are low; credit is easy 101 Borrow-in-advance of rising interest rates 102 Times are good; prosperity Bad Time to Buy: 103 Prices are high 104 Interest rates are high; credit is tight 105 Times are bad; can't afford to buy 106 Bad times ahead; uncertain future 8

11 EXHIBIT A QUESTION WORDING AND REFERENCE NUMBERS QUESTION# CODE# QUESTION WORDING 18 "Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?" 107 Good Time to Buy 108 Uncertain; Depends 109 Bad Time to Buy 19 "Why do you say so?" Good Time to Buy: 110 Prices are low; good buys available 111 Prices won't come down; are going higher 112 Interest rates are low; credit is easy 113 Borrow-in-advance of rising interest rates 114 Good investment 115 Times are good; prosperity Bad Time to Buy: 116 Prices are high 117 Interest rates are high; credit is tight 118 Times are bad; can't afford to buy 119 Bad times ahead; uncertain future 20 "Speaking now of the automobile market--do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a car?" 120 Good Time to Buy 121 Uncertain 122 Bad Time to Buy 21 "Why do you say so?" Good Time to Buy: 123 Prices are low; good buys available 124 Prices won't come down; are going higher 125 Interest rates are low; credit is easy 126 Borrow-in-advance of rising interest rates 127 Times are good; prosperity 128 New fuel efficient models Bad Time to Buy: 129 Prices are high 130 Interest rates are high; credit is tight 131 Times are bad; can't afford to buy 132 Bad times ahead; uncertain future 133 Price of gas; shortages 134 Poor selection; poor quality 9

12 EXHIBIT B COMPLETE DATA FILE Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSALL QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM) 2 Survey month (MM) 3 Survey year (YYYY) 4 Number of cases 1 5 Index: Total sample 2 6 Index: North East region 2 7 Index: North Central region 2 8 Index: Southern region 2 9 Index: Western region 2 10 Index: age group 2 11 Index: age group 2 12 Index: 55+ age group Personal finances compared to year ago: relative Expected change in personal finances: relative Month outlook for economy: relative Five year outlook for the economy: relative Buying conditions for durables: relative 3 18 Index: Current conditions component 3 19 Index: Expected conditions component Current personal financial situation: % better than year ago 2 21 Current personal financial situation: % same as year ago 3 22 Current personal financial situation: % worse than year ago 4 23 Current personal financial situation: % DK; NA 24 Current personal financial situation: Relative Reason financial situation better: % higher income 6 26 Reason financial situation worse: % lower income 7 27 Reason financial situation worse: % higher prices Expected change financial situation: % better 9 29 Expected change financial situation: % same Expected change financial situation: % worse Expected change financial situation: % DK; NA 32 Expected change financial situation: Relative 1, Trend personal financial situation: % continuous increase Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent increase Trend personal financial situation: % no change Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent decline Trend personal financial situation: % continuous decline Trend personal financial situation: % mixed change Trend personal financial situation: % DK; NA 40 Trend personal financial situation: Relative 10

13 EXHIBIT B COMPLETE DATA FILE Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSALL QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION % Expected income increase: 1-4% % Expected income increase: 5% % Expected income increase: 6-9% % Expected income increase: 10-24% % Expected income increase: 25% or more % Expected income increase: Don't know how much up % Expected income: Same % Expected income: Decrease % Expected income: DK; NA 50 Expected income increase: Median 51 Expected income increase: Relative % Expect income to go up more than prices % Expect income to go up same as prices % Expect prices to go up more than income % Expect income or prices up more: DK; NA 56 Expect income or prices up more: Relative News heard: % favorable News heard: % unfavorable News heard: % no mention 60 News heard: Relative Favorable news heard: % about government; elections Favorable news heard: % about employment Favorable news heard: % about higher consumer demand Favorable news heard: % about low prices Favorable news heard: % about easy credit Favorable news heard: % about stock market Favorable news heard: % about trade deficit Unfavorable news heard: % about government; elections Unfavorable news heard: % about unemployment Unfavorable news heard: % about lower consumer demand Unfavorable news heard: % about high prices Unfavorable news heard: % about tight credit Unfavorable news heard: % about energy crisis Unfavorable news heard: % about stock market Unfavorable news heard: % about trade deficit Current business conditions: % better Current business conditions: % the same Current business conditions: % worse Current business conditions: % DK; NA 80 Current business conditions: Relative Expected change business conditions: % better Expected change business conditions: % the same Expected change business conditions: % worse Expected change business conditions: % DK; NA 85 Expected change business conditions: Relative 11

14 EXHIBIT B COMPLETE DATA FILE Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSALL QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 8, Trend business conditions: % continuous increase Trend business conditions: % intermittent increase Trend business conditions: % no change Trend business conditions: % intermittent decline Trend business conditions: % continuous decline Trend business conditions: % mixed change Trend business conditions: % DK; NA 93 Trend business conditions: Relative month business expectations: % good times month business expectations: % uncertain; good/bad month business expectations: % bad times month business expectations: % DK month business expectations: % NA month business expectations: Relative year business expectations: % good times year business expectations: % uncertain year business expectations: % bad times year business expectations: % NA year business expectations: Relative Unemployment expectations: % less Unemployment expectations: % same Unemployment expectations: % more Unemployment expectations: % DK; NA 109 Unemployment expectations: Relative Interest rate expectations: % up Interest rate expectations: % same Interest rate expectations: % down Interest rate expectations: % DK; NA 114 Interest rate expectations: Relative % Prices expected to stay the same or go down % Prices expected to increase: 1-2% % Prices expected to increase: 3-4% % Prices expected to increase: 5% % Prices expected to increase: 6-9% % Prices expected to increase: 10-14% % Prices expected to increase: 15% or more % Prices expected to increase: Don't know how much up % Prices expected to change: DK; NA 124 Expect prices to increase: Mean 125 Expect prices to increase: Variance Government economic policy: % good Government economic policy: % fair Government economic policy: % poor Government economic policy: % DK; NA 130 Government economic policy: Relative 12

15 EXHIBIT B COMPLETE DATA FILE Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSALL QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION Buying conditions for durables: % good Buying conditions for durables: % uncertain; depends Buying conditions for durables: % bad 134 Buying conditions for durables: Relative Reasons good time to buy durables: % low prices Reasons good time to buy durables: % prices will increase Reasons good time to buy durables: % low interest rates Reasons good time to buy durables: % rising interest rates Reasons good time to buy durables: % times good Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high prices Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high interest rates Reasons bad time to buy durables: % can't afford Reasons bad time to buy durables: % bad times ahead Buying conditions for homes: % good Buying conditions for homes: % uncertain Buying conditions for homes: % bad 147 Buying conditions for homes: Relative Reason good time to buy a house: % low prices Reason good time to buy a house: % prices will increase Reason good time to buy a house: % low interest rates Reason good time to buy a house: % rising interest rates Reason good time to buy a house: % good investment Reason good time to buy a house: % times good Reason bad time to buy a house: % high prices Reason bad time to buy a house: % high interest rates Reason bad time to buy a house: % can't afford Reason bad time to buy a house: % bad times ahead Buying conditions for cars: % good Buying conditions for cars: % uncertain Buying conditions for cars: % bad 161 Buying conditions for cars: Relative Reason good time to buy a car: % low prices Reason good time to buy a car: % prices will increase Reason good time to buy a car: % low interest rates Reason good time to buy a car: % rising interest rates Reason good time to buy a car: % times good Reason good time to buy a car: % fuel efficiency Reason bad time to buy a car: % high prices Reason bad time to buy a car: % high interest rates Reason bad time to buy a car: % can't afford Reason bad time to buy a car: % bad times ahead Reason bad time to buy a car: % gas prices, shortages Reason bad time to buy a car: % poor selection 13

16 EXHIBIT C SUMMARY FILE FOR THE INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSSUM QUES# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM) 2 Survey month (MM) 3 Survey year (YYYY) 4 Number of cases 1 5 Index: Total sample 2 6 Index: North East region 2 7 Index: North Central region 2 8 Index: Southern region 2 9 Index: Western region 2 10 Index: age group 2 11 Index: age group 2 12 Index: 55+ age group 3 13 Index: Current conditions component 3 14 Index: Expected conditions component Current personal financial situation: Relative Expected change financial situation: Relative 1, Trend personal financial situation: Relative Expected income increase: Median Expected income increase: Relative Expect income or prices up more: Relative News heard: Relative Current business conditions: Relative Expected change business conditions: Relative 8, Trend business conditions: Relative month business expectations: Relative year business expectations: Relative Unemployment expectations: Relative Interest rate expectations: Relative Expected price increase: Mean Expected price increase: Variance Government economic policy: Relative Buying conditions for durables: Relative Buying conditions for homes: Relative Buying conditions for cars: Relative 14

17 EXHIBIT D SUMMARY FILE FOR PERSONAL FINANCES Documentation Location Contents of File: PERSUM QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM) 2 Survey month (MM) 3 Survey year (YYYY) 4 Number of cases Current personal financial situation: % better than year ago 2 6 Current personal financial situation: % same as year ago 3 7 Current personal financial situation: % worse than year ago 4 8 Current personal financial situation: % DK; NA Reason financial situation better: % higher income 6 10 Reason financial situation worse: % lower income 7 11 Reason financial situation worse: % higher prices Expected change financial situation: % better 9 13 Expected change financial situation: % same Expected change financial situation: % worse Expected change financial situation: % DK; NA 1, Trend personal financial situation: % continuous increase Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent increase Trend personal financial situation: % no change Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent decline Trend personal financial situation: % continuous decline Trend personal financial situation: % mixed change Trend personal financial situation: % DK; NA % Expected income increase: 1-4% % Expected income increase: 5% % Expected income increase: 6-9% % Expected income increase: 10-24% % Expected income increase: 25% or more % Expected income increase: Don't know how much up % Expected income: Same % Expected income: Decrease % Expected income: DK; NA Expected income increase: Median Expected income increase: Relative % Expect income to go up more than prices % Expect income to go up same as prices % Expect prices to go up more than income % Expect income or prices up more: DK; NA 15

18 EXHIBIT E SUMMARY FILE FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Documentation Location Contents of File: BUS1SUM QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM) 2 Survey month (MM) 3 Survey year (YYYY) 4 Number of cases News heard: % favorable 33 6 News heard: % unfavorable 34 7 News heard: % no mention Favorable news heard: % about government; elections 36 9 Favorable news heard: % about employment Favorable news heard: % about higher consumer demand Favorable news heard: % about low prices Favorable news heard: % about easy credit Favorable news heard: % about stock market Favorable news heard: % about trade deficit Unfavorable news heard: % about government; elections Unfavorable news heard: % about unemployment Unfavorable news heard: % about lower consumer demand Unfavorable news heard: % about high prices Unfavorable news heard: % about tight credit Unfavorable news heard: % about energy crisis Unfavorable news heard: % about stock market Unfavorable news heard: % about trade deficit Current business conditions: % better Current business conditions: % the same Current business conditions: % worse Current business conditions: % DK; NA Expected change business conditions: % better Expected change business conditions: % the same Expected change business conditions: % worse Expected change business conditions: % DK; NA 8, Trend business conditions: % continuous increase Trend business conditions: % intermittent increase Trend business conditions: % no change Trend business conditions: % intermittent decline Trend business conditions: % continuous decline Trend business conditions: % mixed change Trend business conditions: % DK; NA month business expectations: % good times month business expectations: % uncertain; good/bad month business expectations: % bad times month business expectations: % DK month business expectations: % NA year business expectations: % good times year business expectations: % uncertain year business expectations: % bad times year business expectations: % NA 16

19 EXHIBIT F SUMMARY FILE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT, PRICE, AND INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS Documentation Location Contents of File: BUS2SUM QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM) 2 Survey month (MM) 3 Survey year (YYYY) 4 Number of cases Unemployment expectations: % less 75 6 Unemployment expectations: % same 76 7 Unemployment expectations: % more 77 8 Unemployment expectations: % DK; NA Interest rate expectations: % up Interest rate expectations: % same Interest rate expectations: % down Interest rate expectations: % DK; NA % Prices expected to stay the same or go down % Prices expected to increase: 1-2% % Prices expected to increase: 3-4% % Prices expected to increase: 5% % Prices expected to increase: 6-9% % Prices expected to increase: 10-14% % Prices expected to increase: 15% or more % Prices expected to increase: Don't know how much up % Prices expected to change: DK; NA Government economic policy: % good Government economic policy: % fair Government economic policy: % poor Government economic policy: % DK; NA 17

20 EXHIBIT G SUMMARY FILE FOR BUYING CONDITIONS FOR HOMES, VEHICLES, AND HOUSEHOLD DURABLES Documentation Location Contents of File: MKTSUM QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION 1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM) 2 Survey month (MM) 3 Survey year (YYYY) 4 Number of cases Buying conditions for durables: % good 96 6 Buying conditions for durables: % uncertain; depends 97 7 Buying conditions for durables: % bad Reasons good time to buy durables: % low prices 99 9 Reasons good time to buy durables: % prices will increase Reasons good time to buy durables: % low interest rates Reasons good time to buy durables: % rising interest rates Reasons good time to buy durables: % times good Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high prices Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high interest rates Reasons bad time to buy durables: % can't afford Reasons bad time to buy durables: % bad times ahead Buying conditions for homes: % good Buying conditions for homes: % uncertain Buying conditions for homes: % bad Reason good time to buy a house: % low prices Reason good time to buy a house: % prices will increase Reason good time to buy a house: % low interest rates Reason good time to buy a house: % rising interest rates Reason good time to buy a house: % good investment Reason good time to buy a house: % times good Reason bad time to buy a house: % high prices Reason bad time to buy a house: % high interest rates Reason bad time to buy a house: % can't afford Reason bad time to buy a house: % bad times ahead Buying conditions for cars: % good Buying conditions for cars: % uncertain Buying conditions for cars: % bad Reason good time to buy a car: % low prices Reason good time to buy a car: % prices will increase Reason good time to buy a car: % low interest rates Reason good time to buy a car: % rising interest rates Reason good time to buy a car: % times good Reason good time to buy a car: % fuel efficiency Reason bad time to buy a car: % high prices Reason bad time to buy a car: % high interest rates Reason bad time to buy a car: % can't afford Reason bad time to buy a car: % bad times ahead Reason bad time to buy a car: % gas prices, shortages Reason bad time to buy a car: % poor selection 18

21 SAMPLE DESIGN The samples for the monthly Surveys of Consumers are designed to be representative of all households in the United States, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. Within each household, one adult member is designated as the respondent. All households, and all adults within those households, are given an equal chance of being selected. No substitutions are allowed in the selection of households or respondents, which are strictly controlled under the equal probability sample design. The sample selection, telephone interviewing, and coding of survey responses, are conducted at the Survey Research Center by its professional staff. All surveys are subject to sampling error because not all members of the population are interviewed. Most results on the total sample of this monthly survey will differ by no more than 5 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by using the same methods on the entire population. While every effort is made to accurately measure consumer attitudes and expectations, factors other than sampling may also affect the accuracy of these (and other) findings. These factors may include effects of the question wording, the ability of respondents to articulate answers and opinions, refusal to participate in the survey, and incomplete coverage of the population. There are no standard measures of these effects, but their presence should be acknowledged when using these and all other survey data. While measurement effects are present in all surveys, a noted advantage of time series data is that the non-sampling influences remain relatively constant over samples and thus their impact on estimates of change over time are minimized. Table A1 provides the necessary information to construct the 95% confidence interval for estimated percentages. To find the appropriate values, cross reference the estimated percentage figure with the sample size. The two values given in the table form the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval--that is, there are 95 chance in 100 that the true percentage lies within the range defined by the observed percent minus the lower bound to the observed percent plus the upper bound. For percents or sample sizes not listed in Table A1 (and subsequent tables), approximate confidence intervals can be obtained by interpolation. Table A2 provides the necessary information to determine whether differences between two estimated percents differ at the 95% level of significance. To use Table A2, first locate the sub table which best corresponds to the range of the two percentage estimates that are being compared. Note that the sub tables are organized according to the approximate value of the two independent subclass percentages, not according to the value of the difference of percentages. Having located the appropriate part of the table, the recommended sampling error allowance is obtained by cross-referencing the sample size values (n 1 and n 2) for the two percentage estimates that are being compared. If the observed difference between the two percentage figures is larger than the figure listed in Table A2 then the difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. 19

22 TABLE A1 CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR ESTIMATED PERCENTAGES SAMPLE SIZE PERCENT % % % % % % % % % % % % % NOTE: The figures in this table, when subtracted from or added to the observed percentage forms the 95 percent confidence interval. Interpolate for observed percentages other than those listed in the table. 22

23 TABLE A2 RECOMMENDED ALLOWANCE FOR SAMPLING ERROR OF DIFFERENCES n 2 n a. For comparing percentage estimates near 1% or 99% b. For comparing percentage estimates near 5% or 95% c. For comparing percentage estimates near 10% or 90% d. For comparing percentage estimates near 15% or 85%

24 TABLE A2 RECOMMENDED ALLOWANCE FOR SAMPLING ERROR OF DIFFERENCES n 2 n e. For comparing percentage estimates near 20% or 80% f. For comparing percentage estimates near 25% or 75% g. For comparing percentage estimates near 30% or 70% h. For comparing percentage estimates near 35% or 65%

25 TABLE A2 RECOMMENDED ALLOWANCE FOR SAMPLING ERROR OF DIFFERENCES n 2 n i. For comparing percentage estimates near 40% or 60% j. For comparing percentage estimates near 45% or 55% k. For comparing percentage estimates near 50% NOTE: The figures in the table represent two standard errors of the difference between two percentages. Locate the sample sizes (n 1 and n 2 ) for the two percentages that are being compared. If the observed difference is larger than the table entry, the difference is significant at the 5% level. 25