NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wad SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS. Seasonally Adjusted Level

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1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wad September 214 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change from Last Month Contribution to Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 1% - 3 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 27% 4 * Plans to Increase Inventories 1% 1 * Expect Economy to Improve -3% 3 * Expect Real Sales Higher 6% - 4 * Current Inventory - 2% 1 * Current Job Openings 26% 2 * Expected Credit Conditions - 5% * Now a Good Time to Expand 9% - 1 * Earnings Trend - 17% 1 * Total Change 4 * (Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation)

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Senior Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX August s Optimism Index rose.4 points to 96.1 making it the second highest reading since October 27. Expectations are still glum, although improving grudgingly. More owners still think business conditions will be worse in six months than think they will be better. Few see the current period as a good time to expand. The outlook for improvements in real sales volumes faded. Interest in borrowing continues to remain at record low levels; owners are satisfied with inventories and aren t planning a lot of investment. There is still no evidence that we are about to ramp up spending and hiring to 3 percent GDP growth levels. LABOR MARKETS NFIB owners increased employment by an average of.2 workers per firm in August (seasonally adjusted), the eleventh positive month in a row but basically a zero net gain. Fifty-six percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 46 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 2 points, suggesting no change or a modest reduction in the unemployment rate. Sixteen percent reported using temporary workers, up 1 point and up 2 points over the past two months. Job creation plans faded however, suggesting weaker job creation ahead. The net percent of owners planning to increase employment fell 3 points to a seasonally adjusted net 1 percent. Historically, these are not statistics associated with periods of strong employment growth. INVENTORIES AND SALES The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months improved 1 point to a net negative 2 percent. Thirteen percent cited weak sales as their top business problem, one of the lowest readings since December 27, the peak of the expansion. Expected real sales volumes posted a 4 point decline, falling to a net 6 percent of owners expecting gains. The pace of inventory reduction improved 1 point, with a net negative 2 percent of all owners reporting growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted). So, on balance, more firms are reducing inventory than building stocks. The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as too low improved 1 point to a net negative 2 percent. Sales trends continued to deteriorate a bit but remained near the best levels in the recovery, just historically weak. The net percent of owners planning to add to inventory stocks rose 1 point to a net 1 percent. While inventories have been building solidly at the national level, it appears that the small business sector is adding little to the accumulation of stocks. This survey was conducted in August 214. A sample of 3,938 small-business owners/members was drawn. Five hundred ninety-eight (598) usable responses were received a response rate of 15 percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

4 CAPITAL SPENDING Fifty-eight percent reported outlays, up 3 points from July, and the second best reading since January 28. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months rose 4 points to 27 percent, the best reading since the peak of the last expansion. Nine percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities, down 1 point and low for periods of solid growth. A net 6 percent of all owners expect improved real sales volumes, down 4 points. Overall, owner expectations do not signal a very positive outlook. Perhaps the gain in spending plans more reflects the increasing pressure from depreciation rather than a positive outlooks for sales. INFLATION Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was a net 6 percent, down a surprising 8 percentage points. Twenty percent plan on raising average prices in the next few months (down 3 points). Only 3 percent plan reductions (unchanged), far fewer than actually reported reductions in past prices. Seasonally adjusted, a net 19 percent plan price hikes (down 3 points). These developments are good news to the Federal Reserve, making them more comfortable providing accommodation even though there isn t much evidence to support the notion that buying bonds is helping the employment picture. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report EARNINGS AND WAGES Earnings trends improved 1 point, rising to a net negative 17 percent, one of the best readings since 27. Rising labor costs are keeping pressure on earnings, along with poor sales performances. Two percent reported reduced worker compensation and 25 percent reported raising compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 22 percent reporting higher compensation, up 1 point and the second best reading since the first quarter of 28. A net seasonally adjusted 15 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months (up 1 point). The reported gains in compensation are now solidly in the range typical of an economy with solid growth, but it isn t clear that we have solid growth, unless we are ready to settle for the sub-par tunnel we have been in. CREDIT MARKETS Four percent of the owners reported that all their credit needs were not met, equal to the record low. Twenty-eight percent reported all credit needs met, and a record high 55 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 24 percent citing taxes, 19 percent citing regulations and red tape and 13 percent citing weak sales. The net percent of owners expecting credit conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted negative 5 percent; more owners expect that it will be harder to arrange financing than easier. This is the most favorable reading about credit market conditions since 26, occurring at a time when the Federal Reserve is terminating its aggressive QE3 policy. Interest rates are low, but prospects for putting borrowed money profitably to work are not great and so loan demand remains weak among small business owners.

5 COMMENTARY The good news, no recession signal. The bad news, no expansion signal. The NFIB Optimism Index was steady at the high end of its fairly narrow tunnel of moderately poor performances. A persistent up-trend in reported increases in average selling prices snapped, probably in response to unexpectedly weak consumer spending. Capital spending showed a bit more life, along with a hike in plans to continue it. But employment indicators were flat. Job openings increased, anticipating a lower unemployment rate but not more jobs as job creation plans faltered. There just wasn t a lot of good GDP news in the numbers, just a more of the same picture. Spending and hiring seem to be driven mostly by population growth and the need to replace depreciated assets. Weak consumer spending is not helping. Strong exports do not help most small businesses. Manufacturers and some transportation companies benefit but not most others. The litany of issues that need to be addressed have been laid out by observers for years now, but there is little progress in Washington on any of them. And new ones are being added along the way. Consumer sentiment (Reuters/University of Michigan) is as low in August as it was a year ago and the readings this year are no better than the weak December, 213 reading. Only 11 percent of consumers think government is doing a good job, 48 percent say poor. Incomes are rising only for the top 1 percent and they don t spend enough of that income to compensate for the weak spending of the 9 percent. Manufacturing is doing well, but there are not many jobs there. However, the small business and consumer segments are not strong and that means economic growth cannot fundamentally be strong. Government spending will not be a major source of stimulus. So, the plodding on continues. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) 11 Index Value (1986=1) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January 1986 to August Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook August 214 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Expansion 5 4 Political Climate Other/Not Available 2 3 OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January 1986 to August Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason August 214 Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES Net Percent SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Next Three Months) January 1986 to August Actual Expected ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to August Net Percent of Firms Planned -2 Actual ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants 29 * * Percent EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January 1986 to August 214 Planned Job Openings NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to August 214 Planned Higher Actual Higher

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Actual Prices Actual Compensation NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent of Firms CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January 1986 to August * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (All Borrowers) 29 33/8 32/8 29/1 3/8 28/9 3/1 28/1 3/7 3/1 29/9 29/1 28/ /11 29/9 29/11 28/9 28/8 25/1 27/9 27/9 27/9 26/9 25/9 28/ /8 29/8 28/7 28/8 28/8 25/9 28/8 28/7 29/8 28/9 3/7 29/ /7 31/7 27/8 31/8 29/9 29/7 3/7 31/7 32/8 28/8 28/6 29/ /6 29/7 29/7 31/6 28/5 29/5 3/5 31/5 28/6 28/6 32/4 32/ /5 29/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 27/6 3/6 28/4 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Avg. Short-term Rate (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January 1986 to August Rate Relative (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January 1986 to August 214 Actual Planned

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months Percent -5-1 Inventory Plans Inventory Satisfaction CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to August 214 Percent Actual Planned NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $1, to $49, $5, to $99, $1, No Answer 2 1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Problem SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM August 214 Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Inflation, Big Business, Insurance and Regulation January 1986 to August 214 Big Business Inflation Insurance Regulation NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Taxes, Interest Rates, Sales and Labor Quality January 1986 to August 214 Taxes Interest Rates & Finance Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report