MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator Summary Report: June 2012

Transcription

1 Summary Report: June 2012 Strictly embargoed until 0945 Beijing time on July 3, 2012 Surges In June On Positive Initial Response To Government Economic Stimulus Measures The rebounded strongly to in June, the highest since September 2010, from 90.4 in May. Consumers reacted positively to the interest rate cut and other economic stimulus measures announced by the government during the month, though data still suggest subdued growth in the next few months. Both current conditions and future expectations indicators jumped in June, with all five components of the overall indicator strengthening. There was greater optimism seen in all regions of the country. Sentiment about the real estate market rose for the first time since January after the central bank cut the lending rate. With recent cuts in gasoline prices, sentiment on car purchases also rebounded modestly. Chart 1: /07 10/07 04/08 10/08 04/09 10/09 04/10 10/10 04/11 10/11 04/12 Table X4. Consumer Sentiment 06/11 07/11 08/11 09/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finance: Current Personal Finance: Expected Business Condition: 1 Year Business Condition: 5 Year Durable Buying Conditions

2 Summary Findings Sentiment strengthened significantly for consumers in every region of China. In addition, all three age groups became more optimistic in June, with older consumers showing the biggest jump in confidence. Sentiment on current personal finances jumped to the highest level in almost two years, while the outlook for personal finances rose to the highest since early Expectations for business conditions in one and in five years soared in June after the government s moves, with the latter rising to highest level since October The level of satisfaction with current inflation continued to rise in line with the recent decline in the Consumer Price Index. The outlook for general price rises in the next twelve months dropped for the second consecutive month in June to the lowest level since February 2010, suggesting a further slowing of inflation ahead. The outlook for employment in one year surged to its highest level since September The outlook for interest rates in one year rebounded after the rate cut. The aggregate view on investment returns in the previous three months showed a surprising rebound, though the stock market index struggled to find a bottom during the month. Sentiment on current stock prices inched up in June, while the outlook for the stock market over the next three months jumped to the highest level since November Overall consumer sentiment on the property market bounced back after 4-consecutive monthly declines. The number of consumers saying it is a good time to buy a house rose in June, but fewer people thought it was a good time to sell. Consumers outlook for housing prices recovered strongly in June after dropping the previous month. Car purchase sentiment rebounded in June, as well, after reaching a historical low in May. Lower gasoline prices and a modest new government subsidy plans contributed to more bullish sentiment. Consumers outlook for gasoline prices a year ahead rebounded in June, after the NDRC s second move to cut gasoline prices early in the month. The survey was conducted between June 10 to June 20, with 1,004 completed interviews. Chart 2: Trend of Current Conditions Index & Futures Expectations Indicators /07 10/07 04/08 10/08 04/09 10/09 04/10 10/10 04/11 10/11 04/12 Trend of Current Conditions Indicator Future Expectations Indicator 2 July 2012

3 Consumer Voices of the Month My income has increased because my business has improved... House prices are not stable now and I have no (house-purchasing) interest... I don t think car prices will rise; auto sales will depend on quality. - Beijing, Anonymous Woman, High Income Group Our jobs, income and living standards have not changed... Our decision whether to buy durable goods and cars depends on their prices and also our purchasing power... The outlook for housing prices is unclear and we have no interest in purchasing a house. - Shanghai, Ms. Qiu, High Income Group My bonus for this year has increased, my salary has increased, and we have made some investment gains... Durable goods are now cheaper due to government subsidies and rising household income strengthens our purchasing power, so we want to buy durable goods. - Suzhou, Mr. Liu, High Income Group Our jobs and income have not changed... As for those durable goods you mentioned, such as cars and houses, I think the first factor to consider is whether we need them or not and then we should consider if they are affordable. - Taiyuan, Ms. Tian, High Income Group I think the government has implemented effective policies and has strong management capability... But housing prices have not yet stabilized, so I prefer to observe for a while and wait for the right opportunity... I feel car prices have changed frequently and related expenses remain high. - Qingdao,Mr. Li, Middle Income Group Government policies are better and there is investment profit (to be made) in housing... As for car purchases, it depends on one s needs first, and then on the related taxes. - Tianjin, Ms. Wang, High Income Group My job is good and my salary has increased... But property prices are too high and so I have no interest in purchasing a house... Traffic is a big problem now, there are too many cars, and owning a car is also expensive. - Shenzhen, Ms. Liu, Middle Income Group 3 July 2012

4 About the The was developed in association with Dr. Richard T. Curtin, Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the Institute of Social Research, University of Michigan and adopts the same overall methodology as the University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer sentiment. The April 2007 survey is used as the base for the indicator (April 2007 = 100). Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI), with each interviewee selected randomly by computer. Each interview lasts about minutes. At least 1,000 interviews are conducted each month from 30 first, second and third tier cities in eastern, central and western China. Responses are grouped by location, age and income. Indicator levels show the difference between the number of positive and negative answers. 100 is a neutral score, meaning positive and negative answers are equal. If there are more positive answers than negative ones, then the score is above 100 (net positive or optimistic). If there are more negative answers, the score is below 100 (net negative or pessimistic). The main is derived from five questions, two on current conditions, three on future expectations: 1) Current personal financial situation compared to a year ago 2) Current willingness to buy major household items 3) Personal financial situation one year from now 4) Overall business conditions one year from now 5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years The survey also includes: The current view on and the outlook for the Chinese stock market Consumers views on their investment returns Current inflation and the inflation outlook The outlook for employment The outlook for interest rates Willingness to buy or sell a house Sentiment on current housing prices Willingness to buy a car Sentiment on current gasoline prices Changes in personal expenses, savings 4 July 2012

5 Contact Information Journalist Enquiries North America / Europe Naomi Kim Tel naomi.kim@deutsche-boerse.com Asia John Carter Tel jcarter@marketnews.com MNI Sales North America Derick Brathwaite Tel: dbrathwaite@marketnews.com Europe, Middle East and Africa Amir Hassan Tel: emeasales@marketnews.com Asia Virginie Barbot Tel: Japan Masashi Takeuchi Tel: +81(0) Hong Kong, Mainland China and Taiwan Cina Lee Tel: Singapore, Southeast Asia and Australia Naserah Muneer Tel: July 2012