Michigan Consumer Sentiment: August Preliminary Slips

Transcription

1 Michigan Consumer Sentiment: August Preliminary Slips August 17, 2018 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for August came in at 95.3, down 2.6 from the July Final reading. Investing.com had forecast Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments: Consumer sentiment slipped to its lowest level since last September, with the decline concentrated among households in the bottom third of the income distribution. The dominating weakness reflected much less favorable assessments of buying conditions, mainly due to less favorable perceptions of market prices. Buying conditions for large household durables sank to the lowest level in nearly four years. When asked to explain their views, consumers voiced the least favorable views on pricing for household durables in nearly ten years, since October Vehicle buying conditions were viewed less favorably in August than anytime in the last four years, with vehicle prices being judged less favorably than anytime since the close of Home buying conditions were viewed less favorably in early August than anytime in the past ten years, with home prices judged less favorably than anytime since 2006 (see the chart). These are extraordinary shifts in price perceptions given that consumers anticipate an inflation rate in the year ahead of 2.9% in early August, unchanged from last month. The data suggest that consumers have become much more sensitive to even relatively low inflation rates than in past decades. As is usual at this stage in the business cycle, some price resistance has been neutralized by rising wages, although the falloff in favorable price perceptions has been much larger than ever before recorded. Overall, the data indicate that consumers have little tolerance for overshooting inflation targets, and to the benefit of the Fed, interest rates now play a more decisive role in purchase decisions. [More...] See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 10.9 percent above the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 12.1 percent above the geometric mean. The current index level is at the 77th percentile of the 488 monthly data points in this series. Note that this indicator is somewhat volatile, with a 3.0 point absolute average monthly change. The latest data point saw a 2.6 percent change from the previous month. For a visual sense of the volatility, here is a chart with the monthly data and a three-month moving average. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

3 For the sake of comparison, here is a chart of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (monthly update here). The Conference Board Index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan Index. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

4 And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB Business Optimism Index (monthly update here). Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

5 The general trend in the Michigan Sentiment Index since the Financial Crisis lows was one of slow improvement. The survey findings saw a jump in late 2016 with improvements that have continued through the present. The next update to this report will be for the August final data and will be published August 31. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.