Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission.

Transcription

1 Integrating ti LED Dt Data into Regional Labor Market Storytelling Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission (512)

2 The labor market is a very messy and interrelated place

3

4 Understanding a Regional Economy: Finding Convergent Validity across data sources OES ACS CES LED HWOL QCEW

5 The Storyline: The Alamo workforce board in San Antonio Texas wants to better understand their regional economy to provide guidance and support to the local community college system to provide marketresponsive training programs

6 Creating a flow to understand labor market dynamics Define the geography in question Profile the population Understand the population in context of the geography: location, commuting patterns Assess the labor force Profile the industry structure, historical change, projections Reconcile different employment definitions Assess hiring patterns by industry, worker characteristics Assess occupational structure, wages, projections Profile real-time job posting activity Consider internal workforce outcomes & activity Assess education and training i program graduates

7

8 Alamo Area Population Projections Year Total Total Total Total Total Anglos Black Hispanic Other , ,519 18,996 96,005 7, , ,948 20, ,264 8, , ,430 21, ,241 10, , , , ,009 12, , ,005 23, ,052 14, , ,980 24, ,049 17, , ,398 25, ,437 20, , ,728 25, ,650 22, , ,566 25, ,205 25,556

9

10 Worker Concentrations in Alamo LWDA

11 Alamo Commuting Patterns

12 Alamo Commuters: The Austin Connection

13 Migrations Patterns for g Bexar County, Texas

14 (1,000s) 156,000 U.S. and Texas Civilian Labor Force 13,000, , ,000 US CLF (sa) 150,000 Texas CLF (sa) 148, , , , , , ,000 12,500,000 12,000,000 11,500,000 11,000,000 10,500,000 10,000,000 9,500,000

15 Texas Labor Market Statistics (SA) Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) July 2012 June 2012 July 2011 Texas Labor Force (+196,000 YOY) Texas Unemployed (-108,800 YOY) Mil Mil Mil 904, , ,013, Texas U Rate 7.2% 7.0% 8.1% San Antonio MSA Labor Force (+11,600 YOY) San Antonio MSA Unemployed (-7,400 YOY) 1,032,400 1,034,600 1,020,800 75,000 75,200 82,400 San Antonio MSA Urate 7.3% 7.3% 8.1%

16 San Antonio MSA Industry Growth YOY Industry Dec 11 ABS CHG PER CHG Total Nonagricultural 850,300 2, % Total Nongovernment (aka private) 691,300 8, % Goods Producing 91,800 2, % Service Providing 758, % Professional and Business Services 97,500 4, % 43% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20, % Leisure and Hospitality 101, % Mining, Logging, Construction 45, % Education and Health Services 138,200 7, % Manufacturing 46,300 1,500 33% 3.3% Financial Activities 63,500 2, % Other Services 32, % Information 17, % Government 159,000 5, %

17 Goods Producing Employment Trends ( ) Construction Total Nonagricultural Mining Manufacturing

18 GAINERS: Alamo WDA Sectors ( ) EMP 2011Q2 ABS CHG PCT CHG Trend vs 2018 Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure: restaurants and hotels 119,475 6, Above Business and Financial Services: Insurance, non bank financial 139,052 4, Above Biotechnology, Life Sciences & Medical: Hospitals, Physicians Offices 73,725 4, Above Corporate HQ, Administrative & Government: federal govt. 88,927 3, Above Personal and Residential Services: home health and nursing care services 57,195 3, Equal Transportation Equipment: auto dealers, parts manufacturing, auto repair 31,910 2, Above Legal, Protective & Human Support Services: individual family services, legal and emergency services 28,136 1, Above Electronics & Applied Computer Equipment: semiconductors, commercial electronic & medical equipment wholesalers 11,949 1, Above

19 Job Churn: San Antonio MSA Private Sector New Hires San Antonio New Hire Activity Hiring Earnings Earnings (2010 4th) All Workers New Hires All NAICS subsectors 55,321 $3,518 $2,223 Food Services & Drinking Places 9,426 $1,494 $1,068 Administrative & Support Services 5,804 $2,871 $1,971 Ambulatory Health Care Services 5,200 $3,803 $2,470 Professional, Scientific, Tech Services 2,864 $5,254 $3,774 Specialty Trade Contractors 2,106 $3,507 $2,664 Credit ditintermediation ti Atiiti Activities 1,407 $4,195 $3,048 Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 1,640 $2,388 $2,126 Social Assistance & Child care 1,596 $2,050 $1,458 Hospitals 1,296 $4,511 $3,711 Accommodation 1,206 $2,139 $1,643 General lmerchandise Stores 1,325 $2,093 $1,211 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 991 $6,434 $4,112

20

21 250,000 Increase in Job Activity: San Antonio MSA New Hires vs. Separations 200, , , ,000 0 New Hires Separations

22 San Antonio MSA New Hire Earnings vs. All Workers $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $3,786 $2,500 $2,391 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 All Worker Earnings Poly. (All Worker Earnings) New Hire Earnings Poly. (New Hire Earnings)

23 Mass Layoff Events in Texas 337 Num mber of Mass Layoff f Events (Jan-Nov YTD)

24 60,000 Texas Firm Births vs. Deaths 50,000 Priva ate Firms in Texas 40,000 30, ,000 10, ,000 Infant Firms Deceased Firms Infant Firm minus Deceased Firms

25 Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL No. Unemployed 1,150,000 1,050, , , , , , , , , ,000 Unemployment HWOL No. of Job Ads 350, , ,045 3,0 250, , , ,000

26 San Antonio MSA HWOL Online Job Postings Last 90 Days Feb 2012 Occupation Postings CHG Preferred training Registered Nurses 2, Associate's/Bachelor's Truck Drivers, Tractor Trailer 2,0061,011 Short term OJT Customer Service Representatives 1, Moderate term OJT Retail Salespersons 1, Short term OJT Computer Support Specialists 1, Associate s s degree Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers Related work experience Network Systems Administrators Bachelor s degree Supervisors, Food Prep Workers Related work experience Exec. Secretaries/Admin Assts Related work experience Non technical SalesReps Reps, W & M Related work experience Web Developers Associate s degree Supervisors, Admin Support Related work experience Medical & Health Srvcs Managers Bachelor s degree plus Physical Therapists Master s degree

27 Short term Forecasted Job Growth by Region AVG LWDA Lower Rio Grande/Brownsville % Travis County/Austin % 2.4% South Texas/McAllen % Alamo/San Antonio % Rural Capital/Round Rock % Permian /Midland Odessa % Central Texas/ Killeen Temple % Upper Rio Grande/ El Paso % Brazos Valley/ Bryan % Heart of Texas/ Waco % North Central Texas/Plano % East Texas / Tyler %

28 Work In Texas (WIT) Applicants vs. Job Postings Education Requirement 2011 Work kin Texas HWOL 2011 Job Applicants Postings Doctoral Degree 0.6%.8% Professional Degree 0.3% 1.6% Masters Degree 0.9% 3.6% 47 7% Bachelor s + Work Experience 3.4% 7.8% Bachelor s Degree 8.5% 22.7% Associate s Degree 20% 2.0% 10.0% 0% Post secondary Vocational 4.0% 9.3% Jobrelated work experience 5.4% 9.2% 84% Long term On The Job training 6.2% 4.4% Medium term On The Job training 22.4% 15.4% Short term On The Job training 46.3% 15.3% Source: Help Wanted On Line listings for Texas and Texas Workforce Commission listings for Work In Texas database

29 Structural Mismatch: 2010 Graduates Grads Earnings Multi-/Interdisciplinary i li Studies, Other 9,536 $32,132 Business Administration, Mgmt & Operations 6,056 $40,473 Psychology, General 5,169 $22,613 Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 $59,359 Biology, General 4,517 $21,737 Health and Physical Education/Fitness 3,457 $23,454 Finance & Financial Mgmt Services 3,269 $37,160 Accounting & Related Services 3,083 $33,583 Marketing 2,884 $31,693 Criminal Justice and Corrections 2,783 $27,039 English Language and Literature, General 2,453 $23,124 Liberal Arts, General Studies & Humanities 2,359 $30,074 History, General 2,245 $24,016 Political l Science &G Government 2, $25,037 Public Relations & Advertising 1,772 $27,579

30 Storytelling Lessons to Take Home Do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good you are not a wizard! Unfold the story: No one data source or program tells an interesting story by itself There are no good or bad data; all data have strengths and weaknesses LED data do not have to be the whole show to contribute value to the story When all else fails, fil close with a joke

31 How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb? 1. One to the instructions 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of their page 3. One to post the video of their work showing collaboration One Bb Baby Boomer to tell tllthem what hta terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they did with the light bulb

32 There is much more story to tell, but this version is over Thank you! ih df